If anyone has any questions for me at all, please ask. I'll be completely honest. I don't think Vivax would push cDg so heavily if he was scum. There were clear reasons to think cDg was scum and I echoed his sentiment. I totally got what Vivax was trying to say from a town perspective. Austin has also looked town to me this entire game.

Just my 2cents. I know they don't matter much anymore. Looks like I'm a naive cop and 5T is paranoid. That's a bit odd.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

July 29 2013 06:00 GMT

#2389

On July 29 2013 14:48 Onegu wrote:
Firm can you give me your thoughts on TG, JJD, and JrKirby

TG is town based on the flip. He and cDg are inexorably linked. If one flipped mafia, the other was sure to be mafia as well. When one flips town, the other probably town as well.

JJD
Onegu
JrKirby
Vivax
5T
...are the remaining options.

Onegu was the one who chose the lynch. I'm feeling town on him. He took the brunt of the blame for the mislynch. Doesn't feel like something scum would do.

Remember, jrkirby took NONE of the blame for the lynch. He just buddied Onegu so no one would blame him for the town flip.

JJD is probably town. He's been pushing me from Day 1, but drops me when I claim. Scum would keep pushing me because it's convenient. I was being pushed heavily and he could just wagon me to oblivion.

5T is still basically confirmed town for me. He had no reason to claim after I did if he was scum.

Vivax is probably scum based on the flip. I have to reread his filter to be sure.

For now, I think the scumteam is probably Vivax/jrkirby.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

July 29 2013 06:06 GMT

#2391

I hope 5T isn't dead. We need him.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

July 29 2013 06:14 GMT

#2396

So my DT check is useless because I'm naive right?

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

July 29 2013 06:21 GMT

#2399

yeah, town on kirby.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

July 29 2013 06:38 GMT

#2401

If Austin flips scum, he's played an extraordinary game. Props to him. I'll be voting kirby today.
##Vote: jrkirby

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

July 29 2013 06:48 GMT

#2403

Why we need to vote jrkirby:
Voting jrkirby is going to tell us who the last scum is. I have determined that Onegu and JJD are very unlikely to flip mafia. By the process of elimination, our choices are Vivax/jrkirby/TG.

If all of town votes kirby, we can find out which of Vivax and TG is scum.

Assuming kirby is scum, we should be stuck at 3 votes. Town TG will be hesitant to lynch because he thinks the scumteam is Vivax/me. Town Vivax should be perfectly okay with the lynch. Scum Vivax, however, would be hesitant to lynch his teammate.

Thus, if Vivax votes kirby, Vivax is probably town. If Vivax doesn't vote kirby, Vivax is probably scum.

Unfortunately, I just typed all this and posted it so he's probably going to read this and WIFOM it. I'm betting that he doesn't. After all, I typed this to anticipate the WIFOM play and force it.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

July 29 2013 21:56 GMT

#2443

His outrage is bus insurance. He's scum with jrkirby. Vivax behaved like town, TG behaved like scum. This game is over.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

July 31 2013 03:26 GMT

#2539

I'm sorry I haven't been too active today. I was busy with my other game and wanted to see how TG would react to my statements. I'm reading up.

Who's out there right now?

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

July 31 2013 03:37 GMT

#2544

Okay, here's how I'm looking at the game right now.

It looks like Vivax is trying to switch off kirby and onto TG.

Let's assume that Vivax is scum and kirby is scum. Both scum.
Vivax obviously wouldn't want to lynch Kirby. Who is the best possible target for vivax that he might be able to convince people to vote for?
TanGeng.
Obviously, he doesn't want to push too hard or it would seem too obvious that he's Kirby's scumbuddy.

Now let's say Vivax is town and kirby is scum.
Vivax might want to lynch TG, but ultimately he should be relatively ambivalent between the two. He has stated in the past that Kirby is scummy, so he should defer to that lynch,especially considering that town agrees with the lynch with a slight majority.

Is there any situation when Kirby is town that Vivax would NOT want to lynch him?
No.

This is so, so, so, soooo important. I can't emphasize this enough. A town Kirby should be wholeheartedly endorsed by Vivax whether he is scum or town. Scum Vivax would want to WIN. This is LYLO so all his cards are on the table. Town Vivax may be a little unsure, but ultimately defer to the lynch.

Let's lynch Vivax.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

July 31 2013 03:40 GMT

#2546

EBWOP: Is there any situation when Kirby is town and Vivax is scum that Vivax would NOT want to lynch Kirby?

Sorry for being ambiguous lol.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

July 31 2013 03:41 GMT

#2547

So basically, the probability of Vivax flipping scum is higher than the probability of Kirby flipping scum.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

July 31 2013 03:47 GMT

#2551

Is Vivax here? I want him to respond.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

July 31 2013 03:51 GMT

#2553

Nope. You're dead brah. Switching at this point is suicidal. I just wanted to see his reaction. Too bad he's not around.

FirmTofu

United States1956 Posts

July 31 2013 03:52 GMT

#2555

On July 31 2013 12:52 Onegu wrote:
Well vivax was going alot off of DrH makeing a no lynch than my filter. Just saying. Also 5T was starting to think I was scum before he died but I think I debunked the case. I AM BATMAN!!!

That you are!