EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XLIII - Page 4
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Hurricane Sponge
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 26 2013 13:08 Alakaslam wrote: For starters direct disobedience to what I posted in the spoiler at the bottom of the post you quoted for my homework. Is also selfish, sarcastic, paranoid, a knee-jerk reaction, and contradictory to ideas I had raised earlier an have since. And I posted out of raw emotion. More coming on homework, going to avoid spamming! Btw. Yes, I know. You are a prophet sir.  If that's all you found wrong with that quote, we have a problem. I need you to read it extremely carefully. There is a very specific answer I'm looking for, and it will be very obvious when you find it. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 26 2013 13:21 Onegu wrote: [/red]My vote isnt a scum tell and neither is my apathy toward who get lynched, jeez think about it, me doing what I did is something only town would do, scum wouldnt do it because of all the backlash if scum really didnt care they would put thier vote on on of the two bandwagons and not say much as to why they voted. I gave you reasons for my vote and reasons why I was ok with both of them being lynched, none of that is a scumtell. The fact xzavier flipped town we should be looking at people who piled on to his bandwagon they would want to ensure the lynch of the person with the most votes so there isnt a last minute swich onto one of the scum. Can you make an updated case for either Aqua or Alakaslam, whoever is your primary target at this time? | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 26 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote: I think that a hypothetical Vigilante should probably NOT shoot tonight for the following reasons: 1) Statistically speaking, the vigilante is unlikely to die between now and the next night phase. They could get shot by scum, but they're unlikely to be lynched (since they can claim Vigilante). I expect that by night 2 our reads will be a lot stronger and a vigilante will be able to shoot scum with much higher confidence. 2) If the vigilante does shoot tonight and shoots a townie, then (after a scum NK) there will be 8 players remaining in the game, and probably 3 of them will be anti-town. This will be a MYLO situation on day 2 - that is, if we mislynch again, we almost certainly lose right away (barring lucky night actions), and even if we lynch scum we're faced with the same situation again. While obviously the goal is to lynch scum every day, I'd prefer not to have to lynch 3 scum in a row or instantly lose... Don't get me wrong, if StiMaDDict were to go mysteriously missing in the night I wouldn't grieve much, he's been bloody useless so far. However, I think it's worth waiting the extra day to be sure that he (or whoever else is being considered for a Vig shot) is actually scum, since the consequences of shooting a townie are so dire. Spicy, on the other hand, would be a poor vigilante shot IMO - he's posted enough that we would get more out of discussing lynching him than simply shooting him. This post made me really sad. I have to completely disagree with you. There's been a lot of content, and every townie worth their salt has to have at least a couple names on their Scum List. The longer he waits to take the shot, the longer something can go wrong (NK, mislynch, etc.). I hate seeing you come out on the wrong end on two policy discussions, considering the first one got you nearly lynched and I was leaning toward believing you to be town. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 26 2013 13:32 Onegu wrote: [/red]Yes I will, I want to see what night actions are though. Aqua is my main focus now, like I said it would be day one if xzav flipped town I'd really love to hear them now, in case you get NK'd. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 25 2013 01:09 Alakaslam wrote: I WANT firm to show up as town, I am super nervous about mislynching! But I need to make a case it seems, and this is what I got because frankly I don't see any great cases yet. ##Vote: FirmTofu Hint time. Reading comprehension is a huge part of this game. We need to be very careful about correcting significant typos like this. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 26 2013 13:44 Aquanim wrote: Sure, I have a couple of names on my scumlist, but I'm not willing to bet the farm on any of them just yet. Like I said, a Vigilante is unlikely to be mislynched since he can claim, and the odds of him being shot are relatively low. A Vigilante is likely to be alive in the next night phase, and being able to take a shot when there is more information to decide a target is a good thing. Also, a successful Vigilante shot at this point does not increase the number of mislynches before scum win. An unsuccessful Vigilante shot DOES decrease the number of mislynches before scum win. The town has a lot to lose through an unsuccessful Vigilante shot, and not as much to gain as might otherwise be the case. Obviously shooting scum is good, but a missed shot would be catastrophic. Perhaps instead of thinking I'm scum because I have a different opinion on Mafia theory to you, you should seriously consider my arguments? Whoa there. I never said I thought you were scum. Look at my filter, I never went after you because of differences of opinion on policy. (That feels like a pretty scum move to me personally; blowing something small and ultimately constructive way out of proportion.) Hopefully you'll return the favor and not attack me for thinking you're wrong on this point. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
Your math is sound, and if the vig is not confident, he should not shoot. But if you've got the read, climb the ladder, kid. Make yourself famous. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 26 2013 13:37 Aquanim wrote: Returning to our regularly scheduled broadcast of "anything other than blue roles": I played a large role in lynching a townie Day 1 and I acnowledge that some of you probably suspect me because of this. I believed he was the most likely player in the game to flip red, and I explained clearly why I believed that. If you suspect that I am scum, I suggest you read my filter and ask yourself two questions: 1) Does this person believe in the arguments they are presenting? 2) Is this person afraid of getting attention and being scrutinised? (These questions could profitably be applied to a read through the filter of any player in a game of Mafia, hence the third person. In fact, I would suggest that you do apply these questions to any of your reads.) If you have any questions I'm happy to answer them. I don't plan on posting anything huge until the night-action deadline (one hour before the daypost) since the next move is mostly scum's and I don't see anything to be gained by showing my reads before then. In general, I'd love to see less defense and more offense. (Easy for me to say when I'm obviously feeling much safer than you.) I'm going to be very excited to see your big pre-deadline post. Please don't waste it just defending yourself. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
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Hurricane Sponge
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On June 26 2013 14:19 hzflank wrote: EBWOP: @Hurricane Correction to that question: If you had to Vig kill someone tonight, but all players looked equally scummy, who would you shoot? This is WIFOM hell. If I pick a target, say 'StiM' and that target is actually town, the mafia will let me shoot away and bury my team. If I pick a target, say 'hzflank' and that target is mafia, the mafia can roleblock me tonight and send a Goon to kill me. I refuse to answer this question on the grounds that you look SUPER DUPER like scum right now, unless you're actually the Vig. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
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Hurricane Sponge
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I have a question for you, and I need you to answer in the simplest way possible. I promise I will explain later. Are you scum? | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 26 2013 14:42 hzflank wrote: I don't even know if there is a Vig in the game. We have not seen a night play out so we have no idea what roles are present. If there is a Vig, then as Aqua said, they need to be damn sure that their target is scum if they are going to shoot before we get a successful lynch. My point was: Aqua is bulletproof tonight (from the scum NK). Even if they are both town and the scum want Onegu lynched day 2, they still will not NK Aqua tonight. Speculating on mafia night actions in a newbie game seems like an invitation for WIFOM Hell. It doesn't really get us any closer to finding scum, and it convolutes whatever Occam's Razor we might benefit from. I could post a list of people who I think are safe from mafia tonight (and that list would be exactly 8 people long; believe me, I made it and then deleted it), but what good does that do us? | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 26 2013 14:46 Aquanim wrote: I'm curious to know why you think this is so. Please, dear god no. Before anyone starts down this line of thinking, indulge me: Tell me how this gets us closer to finding scum? | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 26 2013 14:48 hzflank wrote: EBWOP To clarify: I am NOT saying that a Vig should shoot aqua. A mis-kill would be disastrous, and I am not claiming him to be scum. I was just thinking 'if this guy flipped now, what would it tell us'. And I realized that the town stands more to gain from an Aqua flip than anyone else. Aqua had the second wagon in day 1, and there is now a wagon forming on Onegu, who claims he will make his case on Aqua. I told myself I wouldn't swear in this thread. I was going to be civil. Please do not make me disappoint myself. Please. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
I also can't wrap my head around how mathematically at least two Townies at one point put their vote on Aqua. The final ballot had: hzflank, Xzavier, Onegu, Alakaslam, and StiMaddict Of those, all could be town, or three could be town (assuming a 3-scum set-up). But two townies were either convinced by scum or got there on their own natural reads that Aqua was scum. Of those 5, two are confirmed to still suspect him: Onegu and Xzavier. Everyone knows my thoughts on StiM, and I'm sure there are as many opinions as there are people in regards to Alakaslam. hzflank, I'm going to go through your filter now. Please do not be offended. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
On June 26 2013 14:57 Alakaslam wrote: You guys are all confusing me like flying pigs! What the hell is all this about? How on earth do we deduce this kind of thing from what has happened so far? Either STFU or be clear, this is one thing I have learned today. I thought you all had this down Already? ........wait. Hurricane, Would scum create WIFOM hell if they knew they could? Edit after read preview: this is in tandem with quoted, @nested quote. I will explain why I want people to cease talking out loud about these specific topics. We, as town, outnumber mafia. At this point, I am convinced that we are also the better players. Daytime is a great time to deduce why mafia did what they did, because we have the Power of Lynch as the next killing action. Night time is not because the mafia get to follow our chain of thought. As we say things like 'Oh Bob is safe, they can't kill him because then we'd know X', we've just betrayed that advantage. Now, they CAN kill Bob. Add this to the fact that when we treat mafia as an amorphous blob like this we get no closer to actually finding out who they are. But even saying something like, 'Well Bob is probably gonna die because I think Steve is scum and Steve hates Bob.' is detrimental to the town. What if Bob dies now? They just heard you say that you think it's Steve's fault. And what if Bob doesn't die? Is Steve now innocent? Mafia controls those action items. It's not so much we need to deny them information. It's more that we can better use this time interpreting the flip and going back over the filters to try to find relationships. Scumhunting is how you win. You don't get some magical prize if you can correctly vet out publicly the mafia's best shot for the night. Especially considered the vast unknowns with our own Power Roles. Policy aside, in this specific game, I call upon the town to have faith in the players that are manning our Power Roles. They're not dumb. If you've thought of it, odds are they probably thought of it when they got their Role PM. Go find a filter and let's do some dumpster diving. Talk is good. Gameplanning for the other team is not. | ||
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Hurricane Sponge
868 Posts
First action involving fyfy was a vote by Tofu: On June 24 2013 16:53 FirmTofu wrote: As I am about to go to bed, I would like to go ahead and ##Vote: fyfy because he is the only person who hasn't spoken yet. Keep your eye on Stim and Meow as well because they are lurking, especially Stim. Interestingly, Onegu (unprompted) came to his defense with a very logical argument: On June 24 2013 16:59 Onegu wrote: It is better to vote for lurkers who have posted one time and stopped then to vote for someone who hasnt posted anything because they will most likely get replaced or modkilled. Spicy then enters the conversation after a defense of Chromatically as town with a defense of fyfy and a counter-poke on Tofu that reads more like an attack on StiM: [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 21:49 Spicydinosaur wrote: @Aquanim I dont like your case against chrom. Our exchange in the beginning was just to get the ball rolling which worked and started generating some content. Its still early D1 but right now im feeling chrom as town. Looking at FirmTofu as possible scum target. His first post is pure spam that does nothing to generate discussion [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 11:15 FirmTofu wrote: Scum Hunt Day 1: [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 10:59 Chromatically wrote: hey guys[/QUOTE] Analysis: Trying to appear friendly with an innocuous greeting. Seems to project an air of insecurity. Preliminary Conclusion: Scum [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 11:01 StiMaDDict wrote: so it begins..[/QUOTE] Analysis: Neutral statement of fact. Preliminary Conclusion: Need more information. [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 11:02 Spicydinosaur wrote: Hey everyone[/QUOTE] Analysis: Exudes power with strong capitalization techniques along with a greeting. Preliminary Conclusion: A leader with a powerful role. [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 11:03 Xzavier wrote: Spicy <3 hello again. [/QUOTE] Analysis: Trying to establish a connection with a player that he has interacted with prior to this game. A metagaming, manipulative sort of move. Preliminary Conclusion: Scummy [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 11:04 Chromatically wrote: Why so scummy, Spicy?[/QUOTE] Analysis: First baseless accusation. As the old chinese proverb states, "He who smelt it, dealt it." Preliminary Conclusion: Scum Suggested Lynch: Chromatically[/QUOTE] I'm also not a huge fan of his stance on meta use. He claims that he doesn't want to use meta which would be fine on its own, but here he is using the argument to ignore evidence. [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 12:01 FirmTofu wrote: As an aside, I would prefer if the accusations remained within the confines of this game and this game only. That is to say, judging people on the differences between their past games and this one is a rather boring way to play the game.[/QUOTE] He claims I'm scummy because i am defensive when accused of being scum. [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 12:36 FirmTofu wrote: I actually do believe Spicydinosaur is scummy, but not for the reasons that Hurricane Sponge states. In all of his posts, he is extremely defensive. At the slightest mention of someone accusing him of anything, he flares up in his own defense. This could be due to his personality or it could be that he is extremely afraid of getting lynched. If it is indeed the latter, he is likely to be a powerful role, town or mafia. This is my preliminary assessment. (It's funny that this real analysis is in agreement with my fluff analysis at the beginning of the game) [/QUOTE] He acknowledges that it could just be my personality, yet when I link past games to show exactly that, he ignores it. At this point he just backs off his scum claim. [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 12:44 FirmTofu wrote: [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 12:39 Spicydinosaur wrote: [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 12:36 FirmTofu wrote: I actually do believe Spicydinosaur is scummy, but not for the reasons that Hurricane Sponge states. In all of his posts, he is extremely defensive. At the slightest mention of someone accusing him of anything, he flares up in his own defense. This could be due to his personality or it could be that he is extremely afraid of getting lynched. If it is indeed the latter, he is likely to be a powerful role, town or mafia. This is my preliminary assessment. (It's funny that this real analysis is in agreement with my fluff analysis at the beginning of the game) [/QUOTE] I do this in all my games, check out [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=410972] Les Mafia[/url]for a good example. Though i don't see how that is alignment indicative as no one wants to get lynched. [/QUOTE] I won't bother looking at your past games, because I believe you should only be judged on your actions in this game. As I mentioned before, you could very well have a defensive personality, so I am not saying you are definitely scum or anything like that.[/QUOTE] Next up is the lurker list post which doesnt tell us anything new and just clutters up the thread. We all know who has/hasnt been posting as the filter button is a click away. [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 13:27 FirmTofu wrote: [QUOTE]On June 24 2013 12:30 FirmTofu wrote: Quoted Player List for reference: [QUOTE]On June 18 2013 14:22 geript wrote: The Players
[/QUOTE] Lurkers: fyfy, Aquanium, LoneMeow, StiMaDDict, Alakaslam (Sorry, I know you said you were eating, but for all intents and purposes, you haven't posted at all.) Let's keep a close watch on these guys before we start voting.[/QUOTE] Lastly his vote on fyfy has been bugging me. It is clearly a pressure vote to get him active but why target fyfy over stim? Stim actually posted at the beginning of the day right after the day post, then dissipated. He was there reading the thread but not actively posting. This seems scummier than fyfy at the moment. [/QUOTE] After a while, Tofu drops his poke vote on fyfy: [QUOTE]On June 25 2013 02:38 FirmTofu wrote: Wrong format sorry. ##unvote: fyfy[/QUOTE] After a brief defense by Tofu from Spicy on the matter, fyfy chimes in: [QUOTE]On June 25 2013 04:10 fyfy wrote: Hi guys, for what it's worth I believe FirmTofu to either be an overzealous townie or scum. By checking through some of his posts in his previous games it appears that he is indeed kinda overzealous about things as town, not too sure about scum though. Apparently in one of his games he shot another town he believed to be mafia so I'm not too sure where this places him. For now, I'd rather we lynch someone scummier.[/QUOTE] Tofu then links Spicy and fyfy: [QUOTE]On June 25 2013 05:56 FirmTofu wrote: Another issue that may be useful later is his subtle defense of fyfy that worked wonders to nail me as an idiot for having voted him. Everyone fell for it, but for the time being, I have linked Spicy and fyfy as possible teammates. Whether it be arrogance or a scum-tell, Spicy is definitely a suspicious individual that needs to be looked into. ##Vote: SpicyDinosaur[/QUOTE] Spicy and Tofu then get in some crazy off-the-rails argument where they refute each other point by point without actually going anywhere. (Spicy has to actually bring up Hitler to finally kill the argument) There's a bit of time that passes where fyfy is solicited for a vote, so he offers: [QUOTE]On June 25 2013 15:48 fyfy wrote: I'm getting the read now that Aquanim is more scum than Xzavier as Aqua seems to be extremely defensive and I maintain my belief that Xzavier just types like a scum. Reading through the discussion, I am under the belief that Aquanim is scum. ##Vote: Aquanim[/QUOTE] Aquanim then damns us with faint praise: [QUOTE]On June 25 2013 15:49 Aquanim wrote: [QUOTE]On June 25 2013 15:37 Xzavier wrote: But i really dont need to right now lol. I was in the middle of making a case against you when i had to get off the pc. so i posted the little i had. you cant make a case on a phone. sorrym and im not the only one guilty of not pressuring people. hellvim one of the seven who has casted a vote and given a reason why. So why arnt you going after the lurkers who havnt even voted yet by this logic?[/QUOTE] - LoneMeow's two posts feel more constructive than the entirety of your filter - StiMaDDict is a coinflip - I feel like fyfy, Hurricane Sponge and Alakaslam are at least trying, even if they are not being very effective so far. There could well be scum in this group but I'm not nearly as confident about any one of them as I am about you and Onegu. Voting in as of itself is not scumhunting. You aren't trying to gain information by voting me and your case is pretty bad, which doesn't really leave any possible towny motivation for your vote.[/QUOTE] fyfy gives his reasoning (a gut feel, apparently): [QUOTE]On June 25 2013 15:58 fyfy wrote: [QUOTE]On June 25 2013 14:44 Aquanim wrote: [QUOTE]On June 25 2013 14:32 Onegu wrote: [QUOTE]On June 25 2013 13:28 Aquanim wrote: [QUOTE] Him saying the bolded part really bothers me, it is a failsafe for him to later say his gut lead him to make votes without having to make cases behind it [/quote] [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381931¤tpage=18#344]http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=381931¤tpage=18#344[/url] [url=http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=386911¤tpage=53#1045]http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=386911¤tpage=53#1045[/url] Mate, are you in any way familiar with my meta? If I lead a wagon with serious intent to lynch somebody there WILL be a case. [quote] The other big thing about him is he kept the NN thing going way to long almost half his posts deal with the NN, when it is a bad idea, what if the NN claims day one but scum counterclaims day 4 we still dont know who is who it only give scum an advantage and for him to harp on it over and over is scummy to me. [/QUOTE] STILL this? 1) A difference of opinions on policy is not scum-indicative 2) If I knew that the NN claiming was obviously scum-favoured and that I had no chance to make it happen, why would I suggest it as town or scum? It would make me look bad either way. Your reasons for voting me are all 12 hours old. It seems a very convenient time for you to bring those up now that there are a couple of other votes on me. [QUOTE]On June 25 2013 13:13 Xzavier wrote: OMGUS more[/QUOTE] Still pathetic. Make a real case or eat rope.[/QUOTE] If there will be a case then why post this about your gut? [/quote] Because it's true. If I have a gut read, I do seek to substantiate it with a case to convince other people though. I don't expect anyone else to be convinced by my gut. What about this statement makes you think I couldn't say it as town? (NB. You should be thinking this about any scum read.) [quote] Sure a differance on opinion isnt scum indicative, but you postion on something pro scum and makeing multiple posts on it is. And if you make a case on it and people agree with you because they dont see the reasons could let it happen. You weren't the first person to ask for the reveal so it did have a chance to convince the NN to come forward.[/QUOTE] This is ridiculous. You just keep repeating the same thing over and over again. Even if it was a pro-scum position, plenty of people had already said they thought it was a bad idea. I knew when I made that argument that I was arguing against thread sentiment and did it anyway, because I thought (and still think) that that claim would lead to town advantage. You can't say that someone is scum just because they did some stuff which they MIGHT do as scum. You have to find something which they WOULDN'T do as town. [/QUOTE] Something about the way you type is off, I can't really put my finger on to it. I can't really decide whether you're really town or actually scum doing a good job pretending to be town. If anyone could help me clarify how many mafs/SKs are usually in a 12p game I think I would be able to make better decisions.[/QUOTE] ... and then immediately backs off when confronted: [QUOTE]On June 25 2013 16:13 fyfy wrote: So basically we're looking at 3 scums here, and its possible for 1 of them to not have a partner (the SK). So what we should be looking for people who are defending a lot of other people as these people will be the ones who likely will use that as an excuse for defending their mafia partner later on in the game ("Oh I defend everyone!"). As for now, I should not have voted so quickly, I apologise. ##Unvote: Aquanim[/QUOTE] And that's where the trail goes cold. Now, I know this may be a bit embarrassing for Tofu, but that's not my point here. I'm more interested that Onegu and Spicy both defended fyfy with little prompting. I do not view this as early-game scum behavior. Interesting that they both cite StiM as a better target, leading me to personally re-evaluate my thoughts on him. Thread: If you are convinced that either Onegu or Spicy are scum, please put these actions in context and give me your thoughts on StiMaddict. | ||
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