Newbie Mini Mafia XLIII - Page 16

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 02 2013 08:31 GMT

#1767

On July 01 2013 19:20 hzflank wrote:
Another thing:

The fact that I could quote myself so much in my own defense is quite amusing.

Also, I did not post that without reason. LoneMeow could of got answers to most of his questions but spending 15 minutes reading my filter.

LoneMeow is scum. And therefore, Spicy is not even considering his endgame scenarios, even though he told us to look at relationships.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 02 2013 08:36 GMT

#1768

To conclude: I have been trying to lead a horse to the water, but since it refuses to drink I am now wondering if it is in fact a trojan horse.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 02 2013 08:47 GMT

#1771

On July 02 2013 17:43 LoneMeow wrote:

Show nested quote +

But it was, as pointed out earlier, a safe vote anyway, so I wouldn't completely discount it as a town cred vote.

It was not safe. I was withholding my vote. Hurricane and Aqua were both online at the time.

Also, Stim was confused about the whole Alaka/Onegu thing. I got the impression that he had not been reading the scum QT, and therefore is not scum.

Finally, we have almost nothing to look at the confirm that Stim is scum. If we plan to lynch Stim then we are flipping a coin, and worse than that I think the coin is stacked to give us <50% chance of success.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 02 2013 08:51 GMT

#1772

In fact, even if we do lynch Stim it would be a really bad move to lynch him Day 4. Based on the above coin metaphor, if we try to lynch Stim while there is still another scum in the game then either way that scum will play for a mislynch.

Even if you think Stim is scum (which I disagree with), he should not be a lynch candidate until day 5.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 02 2013 09:00 GMT

#1773

On July 02 2013 17:43 LoneMeow wrote:

Show nested quote +

Analyzing the associations between players:

Hurricane - good as confirmed town based on Onegu's flip
Aquanim - not likely
Stim - possible
SpicyDinosaur - possible, even likely?

So I'd say probably SpicyDinosaur, possibly Stim.

@Aqua, what do you think of this post by LoneMeow?

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 02 2013 09:26 GMT

#1775

@StimAddict

In my opinion it would be useful for everyone if you could withhold your day 4 votes until the other 4 players have voted.

I will explain why after everyone has voted.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 02 2013 09:32 GMT

#1776

LoneMeow, I have been working my ass off reading filters and the thread in an attempt to win this game for town. There is plenty of evidence of that.

You have not done so. If you had then you would never of made that case against me. You picked me as a target and then tried to make a case, when a town player should do it the other way around. You did not even thoroughly read my filter before you made your case.

You slipped up.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 02 2013 09:44 GMT

#1777

Does anyone think that I can make it to day 5 anyway? As I see it, the scum should kill me night 4 anyway, so they might as well make sure that one of the day 4 wagons are on me.

If LoneMeow were town he should of realized that and waited for a scum to make the day 4 case against me. But he is not town, he is the scum player who wants a day 4 wagon on me to ensure that at least one town player has a wagon on them. It gives the scum team an extra chance to win.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 02 2013 09:50 GMT

#1778

To add to that:

If LoneMeow were town he should suspect that Spicy and Aqua are probably but scum. If you read the thread and/or Aqua's filter, it looks a lot like Aqua would make a day 4 case against Spicy. If LoneMeow were town, all he had to do was make a case against Aqua and the day 4 wagons would likely both of been on scum. Making a case on Spicy would be the second best option, but not as good as Aqua. Making a case against me was the absolute worst thing that a town LoneMeow could do.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 02 2013 09:50 GMT

#1779

EBWOP

probably both scum

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 02 2013 10:44 GMT

#1780

@Hurricane: So I think the situation is:

You die tonight. LoneMeow is scum. If we lynch LoneMeow day 4 then I die night 4. Day 5 is the 2-1 LYLO with Aqua, Spicy and Stim.

I am not sure of who the last scum is as I believe that there are still two options.

That seems like a very random situation. Regardless of who is scum, Aqua votes for Spicy. We have no idea of who Spicy and Stim will vote for. Spicy and Stim might even vote for each other, which gives the town even less chance to win.

So, I am debating the merits of putting this stagnant game out of it's misery. If we can decide on who is the most likely scum (other than LoneMeow) then I could push for their lynch day 4. If we are wrong then we lose, and if we are right then LoneMeow will probably just concede.

I have read Aqua's filter thoroughly, and Spicy's twice thoroughly. I am going to look for some clues in LoneMeow's filter and then read parts of the thread. If you come across anything that confirms Aqua as town or scum, please let me know.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 02 2013 11:03 GMT

#1782

On July 02 2013 19:57 Aquanim wrote:
The thing which bothers me about LoneMeow's case on you (hzflank) as a scum move is that I don't see how scum could reasonably expect to lynch you at this point... and furthermore, they don't have to. Scum only need one mislynch to win and there's plenty of easier lynchbait. It does have the advantage that he hasn't had to say anything much about the more likely lynches, though.

I have already posted this, but my I think it makes sense for a scum LoneMeow to make a case on me. They have to nightkill me Night 4 anyway. If they attempt a mislynch and it fails then they ideally want to nightkill the person that they attempted to mislynch.

Also, as you aluded to, what we needed to see was LoneMeow's reads on other people, but he has deliberately avoided answering the important questions.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 02 2013 11:16 GMT

#1784

On July 02 2013 19:57 Aquanim wrote:
What is the plan of scum likely to be at the moment?

I have been thinking about this a lot. I do not think it is beneficial to fully reveal and explain my answers at this time.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 02 2013 11:19 GMT

#1785

@Aqua

Considering the bad position that the town is in, can you explain to me the benefit of even looking at the game as though there is a reasonable chance of Stim being scum?

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 02 2013 11:27 GMT

#1787

Is it even realistic that it can be figured out until we see another flip?

Stim might be up to page 2 on his filter now, but there is still nothing there that makes him look scummy.

If I flip town or you flip scum, then it is very likely that Stim is town (imo). But you cannot afford to see me flip town before the Night 4 kill, and you obviously know your own alignment.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 02 2013 12:54 GMT

#1788

On July 01 2013 11:59 StiMaDDict wrote:
I think it is safe to say that LoneMeow is probably a scum, but then again I had a terrible experience from the last game so yeah.. Also it would be hypocritical to call him a lurker because I been lurking all game.
As for Spicy, I can't really tell if he is or he is not a scum, because he is playing a very much thought out and careful game. There is nothing solid of evidence that I can point to as a proof. I will this though, in the last game he played an excellent townie but I'm not getting that same feel in this game. Can elaborate further if you request.
As for Aquanim, only looking at votes, cases and interactions, he is a scum. He voted for Xzavier and Alakslam. He has a bizzare relationship with LoneMeow. However he fucking talks a lot and he has strong opinions.

So that's that..

Please elaborate as much as you can on everything. Don't be scared of making mistakes at this point. If you are town then you should be playing to win. If you want to win as town then we need you to post as much as you can. I need to try to get inside your head.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 02 2013 13:03 GMT

#1789

On June 30 2013 00:56 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Case on stim.

d1 he picks aqua as a target and votes him at the very end not really affecting the vote. he blows up aquas position on nn policy and r a ils on him for the xzavier vote. What I see here is a scum on scum vote meqnt to be used later for cred in the event aqua dies. D2 stim disappears again till qn hour before the vote and claims ignorance of the situation. He fake buys his time asking questions and seeing the votes. Knowing that slam will be killed regardless of the vot3, he votes against it for town cred. Also he is actually active in the post lynch talk.... but why? Because scum only need 1 misslynch to win so hes trying hard now to get there.

This makes no sense. A scum Stim would not want to bus a scum Aqua on day 1. Stim does not post much and therefore is not a hugely influential player. Aqua was getting stuck in on day 1 and was already putting himself in a position to influence the game. The non-influential scum would not bus the influential scum like that.

I do not understand why a town Spicy is focusing on Stim at this point, and not focusing on anyone else. Even if Stim is scum (and Spicy is town) then the town can only win by lynching him on day 5, because I will be around for the day 4 voting and I am highly unlikely to vote for Stim. The only possible day 4 lynch on Stim is a mis-lynch.

You are probably wondering why I have been defending Stim so much. We had bad luck with the day 1 modkill and then had a night 1 cop kill. We mislynched our tracker on day 2. We found ourselves in a 4-3 LYLO with no useful power roles. I want to win the game and based on the reads I have I need Stim to be town in order to win the game. Therefore, I have been trying to cultivate a town-town relationship with Stim to increase our chances of winning the game. I have not been hiding this, my thoughts about Stim have been out in the open for a long time now.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 02 2013 13:12 GMT

#1791

I will pre-empt whoever will show up to say that Stim and I could both be scum.

If we were both scum then I would not need to defend Stim at all. I could make a case on either LoneMeow or Spicy and have a pretty good chance of getting Aqua to vote with me. Then Stim shows up with the usual late vote on my target and the scum team (Stim and I) win the game.

It would be bad scum play for me to defend Stim if we were both scum.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 02 2013 13:13 GMT

#1792

@Spicy, I am not sure if I have posted this yet but:

I need you to elaborate on LoneMeow vs me.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 02 2013 13:20 GMT

#1795

On July 02 2013 22:18 Spicydinosaur wrote:

Show nested quote +

at this point in the game i wouldnt be suprised if there was a busing or cross claims of being scum. Only 1 mislynch is needed so there could be a busing d4 for town cred to get a mislynch the following day.

As I said, we would not need to bus anyone. LoneMeow already posted a case against me. I could of just returned the favour. A town Aqua would of voted with me. That would of just been an easy win.

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