Newbie Mini Mafia XLIII - Page 15

Got a list as well, though i have a feeling its not going to line up with yours. I'm still hoping that 'slam is scum and that the vote was overwhelming because of bussing. Would make this figuring out a lot easier.

As for stim, im more looking forward to his explanation of the vote rather than the vote itself. Town or scum can easily be seen on either side, especially with the votes the way they are.

Spicy, defend thyself.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

June 30 2013 14:23 GMT

#1721

I'll be specific.

What's your list? Why don't you think that it will line up with Hurricane's?

Why do you not care about Stim's vote? I withheld my vote because seeing where Stim put his vote is an absolutely vital piece of information.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

June 30 2013 15:48 GMT

#1725

Thanks. We have plenty of time We have over 48 hours until I need to get my final thoughts in, so there is no rush.

I really wish everyone would take a hard look at how people voted day 2 The important thing is the timing of votes in relation to other people's votes.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

June 30 2013 19:45 GMT

#1728

On July 01 2013 00:54 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
EBWOP: Wow, the mafia team really pops out at you when you do that.

Nothing is confirmed, though. In theory any of us could be scum.

There's just a couple of things we need to know to solve it, but we obviously cannot afford a mis-lynch to get that information. Therefore, we need people to post their thoughts (on anything and everything).

I know this is not the most helpful thing, but I would rather not actually have to ask the question(s?) that I have, as if people happen to give up that information freely then we can solve it. So talk people. Ask me anything, if it helps. I am reserving the right to not answer certain questions, though.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

June 30 2013 19:56 GMT

#1730

That's right Onegu. You are town and I am scum.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

June 30 2013 19:58 GMT

#1731

@LoneMeow

Do you want to win this game?

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 01 2013 09:11 GMT

#1739

Thank you, LoneMeow.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 01 2013 09:16 GMT

#1740

I guess I should go through those points and answer them individually, as people will want to see that.

In reality though, the best information is in the very first line.

On July 01 2013 18:01 LoneMeow wrote:
I believe hzflank is scum.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 01 2013 10:11 GMT

#1741

On July 01 2013 18:01 LoneMeow wrote:
I believe hzflank is scum.

During day 1, he repeatedly claims he thinks Xzavier is town, yet ends up voting for him anyway with a relatively weak reasoning ("more likely to produce information" - you don't lynch for information if you have a scum read). Also switches his vote around quite a few times and plays the noob defense before anyone even accuses him of anything.

I did not have a good scum read. Why should I? How could you even expect my day 1 reads to be any good? In reality, I was the person who tried the hardest to move the wagon off of Xz. By the time I placed my vote it had already been decided and there was no town cred to be gained.

On July 01 2013 18:01 LoneMeow wrote:

Show nested quote +

I can't see any town motivation for claiming fyfy's flip being a bonus. Losing an extra player by essentially RNG during day 1 is horrible for town, and in this case it was even worse as fyfy had practically no association with any of the players so his flip did not give any useful information.

Almost like a slip, if you ask me.

Fyfy was almost a lurker. Once there was no counter-wagon to Xz, we were in a position where we would have been better off just policy voting a lurker (Stim). For a time I even moved my vote to a lurker, but people on the Xz wagon stated that that would not be willing to make a last minute vote switch. I was looking forward to seeing Fyfy's flip more than I was looking forward to seeing Xz's flip.

On July 01 2013 18:01 LoneMeow wrote:

Show nested quote +

Baiting Hurricane to enter WIFOM hell. Luckily Hurricane was smart enough not to bite.

It was not the best question, I admit. I wanted to know where Hurricane thought the important information was. Hurricane is not a player who needs to worry about WIFOM hell anyway, but if I had asked that question to Alakaslam it would have been particularly nasty!

On June 26 2013 14:48 hzflank wrote:
EBWOP

To clarify: I am NOT saying that a Vig should shoot aqua. A mis-kill would be disastrous, and I am not claiming him to be scum.

I was just thinking 'if this guy flipped now, what would it tell us'. And I realized that the town stands more to gain from an Aqua flip than anyone else. Aqua had the second wagon in day 1, and there is now a wagon forming on Onegu, who claims he will make his case on Aqua.

On July 01 2013 18:01 LoneMeow wrote:

Show nested quote +

His early play contains a lot of trying to appease and claiming he's sorry for being so bad. This in itself isn't necessarily very damning, but will become more important later in this case.

We are not losing this game due to bad luck. If we do not look at our own play, find mistakes and try to remove them from our play then we will not only lose this game but also future games. This is a newbie game so learning should be a big part of it.

On July 01 2013 18:01 LoneMeow wrote:

Show nested quote +

On June 28 2013 14:40 hzflank wrote:
In response to Firm's case against Onegu.

Firm, it's a bad case. You are convinced of his guilt so you are using anything you can to prove it. That's your style and that's fine, but you are not getting my vote for those reasons.

Point 1: Fluffy reason. You are also looking for reasons to vote against Onegu that in hindsight you probably wont agree with. See my opening to this post.

Point 2: Onegu's vote switch off of Aqua only makes Onegu look scum if Aqua is also scum. If Onegu knew Aqua and Xzavier he could just of left his vote on Aqua as it did not matter which of the two was lynched. In fact, Aqua was playing a better town game than Xzavier so lynching Aqua would have been better for the scum. If Aqua were scum then Onegu switch his vote at a time that ensured Xzavier would be lynched instead of Aqua, but I would have to be a fool to cast a vote today based on that Association. This is especially true because Aqua and I seem to have been thinking on similar lines for most of day 2, and one point I felt like we were almost masonned.

Also, on page 22 you played a part in convincing Onegu to move his vote off of Aqua. You were pushing hard to get people to vote in the way you thought it best, just as you are today. That's not a bad thing as I think good town play requires conviction, but it also does not mean that your vote is in the right place.

Point 3: I stopped Onegu's day 2 attacked on Aqua. It was really bad play by me. After re-evaluating my play I realise this but it's too late to change that now. I put Onegu in a position where he felt that he might need to vote against your inevitable case, and I was fairly clear that I would not be voting Aqua to be lynched today. I apologise, but your point 3 would be better in a case against me than it is in a case against Onegu.

Point 4: Fluffy reason. The cases we were making against Aqua were weak and full of fluffy reasons. Once Onegu has moved his vote off of Aqua then his wagon was doomed to fail, and Onegu moving it back at that point would not of helped. I cannot read his mind to tell you exactly why he felt apathetic, but that feeling alone is not a strong scum tell.

Point 5: My fault. During the night I made it look like I thought either you or Chromatically were scummy. You made it look like you were starting an early wagon on Onegu. It also looked like you had secured votes from Hurricane and Alakaslam, and there was even a reasonable chance of getting Aqua on board. Onegu needed my vote to save himself, so his best option was to attack you. Again, it was horribly bad town play by me and I am sorry for that, but this is not a scum tell on Onegu.

Overall, I think Onegu seems scummier to you than the other players are you wanted to vote for him. You put a lot of effort into your case and found what you thought were the scummiest things possible about Onegu. Unfortunately, I don't think there was enough there to make a really strong scum case.

After I finished reading your case I was not convinced that Onegu was town, and at the time of this post I am still not 100% convinced that Onegu is town. However, I was leaning town and I am now leaning even more town.

Show nested quote +

During day 2 (before claims), defends Onegu and does a more or less useless vote on Stim without much reasoning. Note that a lot of his defense of Onegu is claiming to be responsible for Onegu's plight because of his bad play.
Redirecting blame to himself when he's not under any suspicion at the time.

After the claims he first votes Onegu, then switches to Alakaslam, while pretty much attacking and defending both speculatively.

I stick by my defence of Onegu on the basis that I did not believe that his day 1 voting apathy was a strong enough scum tell to justify an early day 2 vote on him.

My vote on Stim was not useless as it simultaneously put pressure on both Stim and Onegu.

On June 28 2013 10:28 Aquanim wrote:
(Thanks to hzflank for making the StiMaDDict wagon look convincing, btw.)

On June 30 2013 02:15 hzflank wrote:
EBWOP

In addition that that: if you have a strong town read on someone then play with them. We can set people up as a team. I tried to do it yesterday with Aqua, twice.

The first time it worked and we put pressure on Onegu. The second time it failed (I expected either Hurricane or Aqua to switch their vote at the last second).

On July 01 2013 18:01 LoneMeow wrote:

Show nested quote +

This is a gem. Forcing others to decide so he won't look bad no matter what way the flip goes. Then, once mislynch is clear, votes on Onegu to look good after the flip.

There was only a small amount of town cred to gain from such a move. I voted Onegu because:

On June 29 2013 10:38 hzflank wrote:
Correct me if I am wrong here:

Alakaslam flips red then:

Onegu is town
LoneMeow is town
Aquanim is town
Spicy is town
Hurricane is town

There had to be some scum on the Alakaslam wagon. Considering the order and the timing of the votes, scum did not need to bus Onegu as they could vote Alakaslam without drawing attention to themselves.

On June 29 2013 10:57 hzflank wrote:

Show nested quote +

Forum fail.

Votes went on in this order:

Aqua
Onegu
hzflank
Spicy
LoneMeow

Then hzflank unvotes, and Hurricane votes.

I expected Hurricane or Aqua to switch their vote after I voted.

On June 29 2013 11:17 hzflank wrote:

Show nested quote +

Exactly. When I dropped that 4th vote on Onegu I was half-expecting Aqua or Hurricane to drop the hammer. Stim could not of know that they would not do this. Stim is likely town.

On June 29 2013 11:31 hzflank wrote:
You want to know why I thought the hammer might go down on Onegu?...

Because less than an hour ago I was quizzing Stim because he mentioned roleblock claims. The next post was a 'public service announcement' from Hurricane. I thought that if Hurricane was town he realized why I asked and was leaving a breadcrumb for me. I thought that if Aqua was town he would noticed the connection.

I was waiting to see which of them switched their vote.

On July 01 2013 18:01 LoneMeow wrote:

Show nested quote +

Claiming veteran, before getting hit (but after starting to hint at it just a bit earlier). Why would that be a good idea? As vet, you want to be hit, and as early as possible. Now the appeasing play from earlier comes in. There's no reason for a vet to play that way.

I believe he claimed vet to have a good reason why he's going to survive to LYLO.

I claimed Vet after the night action deadline passed. I did so because I thought that I would be Night-killed Night 2 and that FirmTofu would be night-killed night 3. We were both confirmed town in my eyes, and Hurricane is not confirmed town until Onegu flips. I tried to hint at FirmTofu to counter-claim Vet, so that when I was night-killed and did not flip Vet, the scum would seriously consider not shooting Firm on Night 3.

On June 30 2013 10:55 hzflank wrote:
Also, Firm, you should have countered

Show nested quote +

why did I use that phrase?

On June 30 2013 10:56 hzflank wrote:

Show nested quote +

And that is what you should of countered.

Unfortunately I did not realise that scum hitting the Vet only changes the LYLO to MYLO, so it would not have been the most useful play anyway.

On June 30 2013 10:38 Aquanim wrote:
Even if scum hit the Veteran they still only need one mislynch to win. The only difference is that there will be one more townie and a confirmed townie in the game, who will probably die the next night.

hzflank, FirmTofu and Hurricane are the obvious shots for scum to take. They will need to take at least two shots between now and the next lynch that isn't Onegu.

Why would scum not shoot someone who might be the Veteran tonight and get it over with? If they happen to shoot the Veteran they can shoot him again and kill him before he gets to directly control the next day's real lynch discussions as a confirmed townie.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 01 2013 10:16 GMT

#1742

This may or may not be relevant at this point, but I think it is worth noting.

On June 29 2013 11:05 hzflank wrote:
also, one or both of LoneMeow and Spicy are scum.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 01 2013 10:20 GMT

#1743

Another thing:

The fact that I could quote myself so much in my own defense is quite amusing.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 01 2013 10:37 GMT

#1744

@Spicy:

If at all possible I need you to make a day 4 case against someone. Even if you can only post by phone, I do not need to see an elaborate case.

If you had to place the first vote on day 4, who would you vote for and why?

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 01 2013 12:41 GMT

#1745

On June 29 2013 08:04 Spicydinosaur wrote:

Show nested quote +

What was your list?

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 01 2013 14:01 GMT

#1747

On July 01 2013 22:49 Onegu wrote:
Man I want a refund, you guys are doing nothing....

I'm trying, but I am having to compete with time zones and real life.

Don't worry though, you will have new people to post with soon

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 01 2013 16:40 GMT

#1748

I am my own worst enemy in this game.

On June 28 2013 20:25 hzflank wrote:

Specifically, we need to look at why the scum chose to track Hurricane. This is important.

Ah, hindsight

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 01 2013 17:16 GMT

#1749

On June 29 2013 03:47 Spicydinosaur wrote:

Show nested quote +

Or they could be bussing and trying to get ahead of the wagon. you ever consider scum splitting up the votes? Also suprising you didnt apply this logic to the xzavier vote. 7 people were on him and you didnt go "oh shit this guy has to be town," no you kept your vote on him and lied to get others to join. You cant use this logic when you completely ignored it in the past.

Of course we considered people splitting their votes. Firm was right to use this logic, because even though he ignored it day 1 it turns out that when I used this logic day 1 it was correct. It turns out that when Firm (and eventually I too) used this logic day 2 it was right.

On June 29 2013 20:54 Spicydinosaur wrote:
Aqua i have a null read on and will need to look into his filter a lot more.

Has your read on Aqua changed since we lost Firm?

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 01 2013 19:36 GMT

#1752

Well played, Onegu.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 02 2013 08:27 GMT

#1765

On July 02 2013 11:22 Hurricane Sponge wrote:
hz, let me know how you'd like to play the night. I know which two I think are the other mafia. I'll hold off posting until we hear from StiM, Spicy, Aqua, and LoneMeow if you think that's best.

I'm on the same page that you are. But there are some problems with it.

Aqua has played to win. He has put a lot of effort into the game and appears to have been scum-hunting. The thing is in many ways it looks like Aqua has played to win for the wrong team.

If Spicy has been scum-hunting then he has not really shared it with us (since his D1 case on you). Also, I am not sure how much attention Spicy is paying at the moment, and town should be paying attention at this crucial time.

On June 29 2013 11:05 hzflank wrote:
also, one or both of LoneMeow and Spicy are scum.

On July 01 2013 19:37 hzflank wrote:
@Spicy:

If at all possible I need you to make a day 4 case against someone. Even if you can only post by phone, I do not need to see an elaborate case.

If you had to place the first vote on day 4, who would you vote for and why?

I think that Spicy should of just said that LoneMeow was scum.

hzflank

United Kingdom2991 Posts

July 02 2013 08:29 GMT

#1766

For those that missed it, this is why LoneMeow made the case against me:

On June 28 2013 18:16 hzflank wrote:

The biggest reason why I think that Hurricane is town is because when I scumhunt on him I feel like he is also scumhunting on me. When I look at some other people is has looked like when they scumhunt on me they are actually looking for a scapegoat. If Hurricane made a case against me on Day 3 I would make a case against a third party. If Hurricane thinks that I am scum that does not mean that I think he is scum. In fact in my case, it almost seems that Hurricane is the only person who is actually scumhunting in my direction.

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