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On June 10 2013 04:47 Ace wrote:
kita, Wos here is a simple question: assume I am Scum. Why would I be begging you to check me for 2 days ahead of time to prove my innocence?
2 days? I count one ingame day where you started asking, and that was only after the check. As layabout and I have said (and I don't understand why layabout is now saying we should check you because of this) because you're gambling on scum's future with this. I already addressed this in my earlier post. If you don't want to read it or listen that's your prerogative.
Ace you are absolutely not changing my mind on this. Better try the other sheep.
As far as who else is scum, I have to re-read a bunch but I'm not going to get a chance before the NKs most likely. Oats' list is interesting to say the least; I wish he gave us a little more to go on regarding interaction with other people in the game before he died. I'm going to trash my townread on Sent because of him though, and look from scratch.
Kita where dem big cases at, mang? Who is scum?
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On June 10 2013 05:08 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 10 2013 05:02 WaveofShadow wrote:
Kita where dem big cases at, mang? Who is scum? Deadline posting.
kk.
I forgot to worry about that honestly 'cause I never get NKed 
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On June 10 2013 07:32 Stutters695 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 10 2013 05:57 Ace wrote:On June 10 2013 05:49 Stutters695 wrote:
Sure, shoot. LXI you were the serial poisoner who was playing so town you got caught because you kept getting defensively RBd. Aww I'll take that as a compliment. Although I'd like you to point what is so un-Town like about me this game. So here's my question. Imagine you get cop night 1 this game. Your top scum read comes back with a red check. You are under no pressure of getting lynched. Would you claim? In essence tell me what you would have done differently than I did because this isn't making sense to me. I'll give you what I see non-town tomorrow during the day, too busy right now to quote/explain my concerns. I would have done the same thing if I was town. However if I was scum and rolled cop n1 I would also probably do the same thing and fake the check then talk my way out of the mislynch.I'll talk more about it later, gotta go though.
Wat.
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Alrighty ladies and gents.
Now assuming everyone who got power roles tonight are town, well fucking done.
If they are still playing 'avoid the doc,' then it's more likely Vivax is mafia than I was hit last night, especially since he wasn't under a whole lot of suspicion over the last little while and out of the three mafia left (obv Ace couldn't carry out a hit) he was one likely not to get RBed.
Let's learn a lesson from the Ace/Oats debacle, however, and not base everything we have on power roles on the days to come. We have another night ahead of us where we can learn more information and can gather reads on suspects today. If Vivax is in fact mafia I want to make sure we're not lynching him D4 solely on the basis of him as scum possibly getting RBed by a towny, I want to make sure there is plenty of corroborating evidence. Also know that if Ace is in fact scum (no reason to believe he isn't) we can start abusing power roles on the coming night.
What's important to remember today (which most people if not everyone seems to have remembered thus far) is that Ace must die first and foremost, and we must keep up discussion.
I really liked kita's preflip reads post and I have to look more in detail about some of the people mentioned when I get the chance. I'll have all day tomorrow as well as some time later tonight.
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On June 10 2013 10:42 layabout wrote:
vayne, sent, kita scumteam maybe prplhz
Do you have reasons for those reads?
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On June 10 2013 10:48 layabout wrote:Show nested quote +On June 10 2013 10:44 WaveofShadow wrote:On June 10 2013 10:42 layabout wrote:
vayne, sent, kita scumteam maybe prplhz Do you have reasons for those reads? Too mad right now. I am disappointed in all of you.
Yeah I don't buy it. You only mentioned checking Ace a little bit before the flip, and earlier on in the day you made this post:
On June 08 2013 22:49 layabout wrote:Show nested quote +On June 08 2013 22:25 JarJarDrinks wrote:On June 08 2013 15:05 Ace wrote:On June 08 2013 03:53 JarJarDrinks wrote:On June 08 2013 03:46 WaveofShadow wrote:
lol Sent I was about to say I have no idea why Oats thought your post was scummy Heh I actually agree w/ Oats on that last one. The only scenerio in which I can imagine scum Ace lying about Oats is if Sent is also scum and they decided to take a huge gamble becuase Sent looked like he was headed towards a noose today. Sent planting seeds that he may not vote for Ace worries me. No need to worry, I'm not Scum. Don't associate his behavior with me. I already outlined it would be a crazy idea for me to gamble with his defense here. OK, but I feel like a an Oats/Sent team is kinda unlikely and Sent is just blatently scum right now. I'd still rather Lynch Oats than you for all the reasons I've already said. But I;d rather Lynch Sent than either of you On June 08 2013 16:40 Ace wrote:
Right. I even said if Oats flips Town and you guys don't believe me just have the Cop check me tonight. In the post where I claimed I even, never mind I'm just repeating myself.
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It's a wonderful idea. We know the possibility of a miller does exist so Oats flipping Town implicates me. A simple check resolves whether I am lying or not unless I am scum and get miller/gf. Lynching me results in up to 6 dead Townies when 1 check could have saved us time and lives.
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No. The risk is too great as a simple Cop check would get me lynched Ace, you do realize that is Oats flips green, you're autolynched tomorrow. The cop isn't gonna waste a check on you. I really don't like how you're already making contingency plans for a town flip. If we're planning on wasting a copcheck on you in the case of a mislynch, it makes more sense to not lynch you or Oats today and wait till we get results back. This is why I think we should lynch Sent today. An unlucky miller check basically means we lose 6 townies before we get back to the game. We should lynch Sent cause he's scum, have the cop check Ace tonight, and lynch one of Ace/Oats tomorrow. But if we do that then: If we mislynch today and mafia get cop or Ace get miller then we are boned. If ace is mafia they can give him a green check (or if he gets godfather) and then we follow the check and flip Oats. In this scenario Oats is going to be green and we are at lylo, we then lynch ace but remain at lylo. If ace is town they can give him a red check (or if he gets miller) we then lynch Ace who flips town. We are at lylo with a red check on Oats the chance of him being town miller and 3 mafia alive. Again this assumes no saves but i think a single save would still put us at lylo.
Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't this post from the perspective that we DID decide to check Ace? Can you explain this please, I'm not sure if I follow your though process.
Also, reads. Give me something to work with, here. And just ignore Vayne, it's a waste of time to get into it with him most of the time.
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On June 10 2013 11:26 jaybrundage wrote:
I know we have to keep up discussion. But its so hard when we have one lynch on the board that is pretty much guaranteed to go thru. Would anyone be down for voting to shorten the day. It would help keep discussion up and stop lethargy from hitting our town.
I find that hosts rarely agree to artificially shorten the day; in this scenario I feel even more so that your request would be denied.
Jay there is plenty to talk about just because we already have a lynch target for the day. For instance, I actually forgot to look into the post timings for yesterday's lynch into Oats which I said I was going to do, based on the fact that scum are more likely to be around at the time of lynch to be able to react to shenanigans/claims/what have you.
People who posted directly after the lynch (within 1 hour):
prplhz, mkfuba, Sentinel, kita, layabout, vayne.
Prplhz Sentinel and mkfuba posted directly within 15 min of the lynch, though prplhz was around a little bit before as well.
Of these I would like to direct attention to mkfuba.
His post directly previous to the flip:
On June 08 2013 06:33 mkfuba07 wrote:
@Vivax:
One problem I have with the reasoning in a) is that I don't feel like any scum is ever all too afraid of bussing oats right from the start. He's a hard read D1, and is also (I feel) oftentimes an unlikely lynch D1 because of that very fact. I'd have to take a closer look at how sent was pushing oats, but if it's just "his case on ace is ridic" then it's nothing that I'm sure most of the people here weren't thinking before sent said it himself. Because of this, I don't think scum oats excludes scum sent.
As glad as I am that there's a lot of discussion going on (I have excuses for not participating up to this point, but I'll leave them out unless someone really wants to hear them), I don't see myself voting for someone other than ace or oats today. The likelihood of these two players being town and getting the exact roles that would put us in this situation given their previous interaction is negligible, imo. Therefore, at least one of them is scum. Oats seems most likely to me, given that it would be silly for ace to fakeclaim and expect "guess he was miller" to get him off the hook. I agree that if ace did fakeclaim, it's more significant than a 1-for-1 trade, but it's still a pretty big swap.
##Vote: Oatsmaster
I've been asleep for a pretty long while, and I'm gonna go get food now. I also might have plans in a few hours, so I'll disappear again for a bit. Please tell me if there's anything in particular you want me to think about/look at/consider, since my time will be mostly focusing on oats/ace. In addition to being the most likely place to find scum, I feel that will give us the most to go off of going into D3.
Not the timestamp. This is a full day before the flip.
Now look at this.
On June 09 2013 08:05 mkfuba07 wrote:
Well... that was quite possibly my least expected flip ever...
5 MINUTES after the flip.
This does not seem entirely coincidental to me as scum are often extremely active directly around the time of a flip. It would be one thing if he had post on and off throughout the day as some of the others who posted directly after did but mkfuba contributed ABSOLUTELY NOTHING for an entire day and very little before that point; he is simply coasting on his 'confirmed town' status given to him by?
None other than Ace.
Kita I am aware there is a deal of merit considering he would have been the first to push Rayn somewhat on the first day and you gave him a recent townread yourself, but what do you think of this? A possible scenario I envision (and not entirely unlikely if Ace flips red) is that the decision to bus Rayn happened earlier on to give a lot of people towncred, especially considering Rayn may have informed his team that he would be inactive and therefore likely to die. This idea hinges a little more on the idea that Ace is scum however, since it would require massive lategame gambling and the sacrifice of scum's arguably strongest role. If Ace is scum this appears to be more likely since there must be serious planning going on for Ace to sacrifice himself alone.
In any case if the scenario I pointed out appears unlikely then by all means ignore it for now; I'd like to hear what people think of mkfuba atm.
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On June 10 2013 12:03 kitaman27 wrote:
I don't think the mafia would bus their strongest role in a setup that town can so clearly benefit once we reach one kp. By busing rayn, they give up the ability to hunt the cop, rber, and medic and put themselves in a position where they are only one scum lynch away from the terrible position. Ace clearly wants to save rayn at the end of day once so they would have to be incredibly unorganized or fuba would be acting on his own. I'd rather look in another direction, such as Vivax.
I agree. I think the only case it makes sense is something similar to LXI where they knew Rayn was going to go down to inactivity and they were forced to bus him? Possible that Rayn's return to the thread gave Ace hope so he tried to defend?
I know at this point I'm probably just confirmation biasing my way through so I'll drop it for now.
Kita can you give any more insight into Vivax? Your end-of-night read wasn't particularly informative.
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I could lynch Vivax on D4, kita.
There is plenty of time before that, however, especially if Vivax comes back once the 'cop business' is done and we get another night of good blue role usage.
Activity today is unacceptable, ladies and gentlemen. Remember that this is exactly what scum wants, a dead thread. By playing follow the cop whether Ace flips red or green we are playing directly into their hands so we have to pick up our collective game.
Kita since you have been actively answering my questions, do you think Sentinel is likely to be scum? That is, if Ace flips red do you believe the cop claim was done to save Sentinel's life?
Also do you believe the green check on layabout?
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On June 11 2013 01:32 Vivax wrote:
##Vote: Ace
I confirm that prplhz roleblocked me. I'm not scum though and this means that Vayne is most likely town barring any scum powerplay.
There's the possiblity that prplhz is scum and that they doublestacked JJD and roleblocked me to try to incriminate me, that would be pretty smart usage of a roleblock by scum, although it would cost them KP.
Seems improbable though, it would be more worth of consideration, had an active townie died tonight.
I was waiting for someone to bring this up as I was thinking of this possibility myself.
At what point do we draw the line in agreeing that something scum would do ACTUALLY is really unlikely?
It's unlikely at first that Ace is scum and sacrificed himself for this play, yet here we are.
It's unlikely that they bussed Rayn real early because they lost their power role, yet something along those lines must have happened.
Personally my line is going to be drawn here: it makes zero sense to me to artificially lower your KP as scum if you're on the cusp of losing the extra one anyway, especially since if they're gambling for the lategame with the Ace play, it would take them LONGER to get to lategame with one less KP.
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No lurky here but I can only force so much conversation.
Fucking follow the cop...I hate that shit.
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Stutters has activity issues on non-weekends.
Or is that JJD? I forget. Either way i still expect SOMETHING from him.
I'm going to have to re-read Sentinel at some point because I want to re-evaluate my original townread on him.
As far as Vivax/prplhz are concerned I'm going to wait on more info to solidify those. Either could be scum but I'm not sure about both.
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I'm am perfectly fine the plan outlined above.
And for the record I was never fine with 'follow the cop,' nor am I taking the blue role claims we got last night at face value.
Let's see what will happen in an hour when people magically return to the thread and we'll go from there.
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On June 11 2013 10:26 jaybrundage wrote:
I dont see anything wrong with your plan Layabout. I'll follow it.
I guess ace is just going down quietly lol
I think that's how you know we're right.
Died without a peep in LXI as 3p....
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Does anyone know anything about fuba?
His activity in this game is inexcusable, however good his case may have been on Rayn D1.
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Sentinel, in future don't be involved with 5 games at the same time.
That's fucking retarded and people will be pissed at you when you ruin their games with inactivity.
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On June 12 2013 05:03 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:Show nested quote +On June 12 2013 04:37 kitaman27 wrote:On June 12 2013 04:32 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:On June 12 2013 04:27 WaveofShadow wrote:
Sentinel, in future don't be involved with 5 games at the same time.
That's fucking retarded and people will be pissed at you when you ruin their games with inactivity. I learned that a week and a half ago. Anyways, yolo Who is more scummy between prpl and Vivax? Unless someone counterclaims the roleblocker, Vivax.
Counterclaiming (or fakeclaiming as scum if your team didn't draw the role) is suicide in this setup even more so than a regular one, Sentinel. That will never happen and it's honestly ridiculous that you brought it up.
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FUCK yeah that's what I'm talking about ladies and gents.
Once again gj not wasting checks on Ace last night.
I'm not good at coming up with plans to use roles and shit, but now that scum KP is at 1, what can we do?
On that note I get the feeling Ace tried what he did because of all of his speculation talk in the pregame knowing we were going to think a certain way. I have to go back and read what he said. I know he didn't roll scum in the pregame obviously but I'm just saying I wonder if he planned what he did based on what he had said previously.
I want to look into the possibility of Fuba being scum. I know it's WIFOM especially since Ace knew he was going to flip eventually but he did call Fuba confirmed town, and it's entirely possible they gave Fuba that case from the start. An early bus is not impossible here, is it?
The obvious choices for the final scum are Vivax/prplhz/Sentinel I know, but we can't risk the fact that there is still strength in the scumteam still. (In which case I'd say kita, 'cause he gud scum)
In any case I'm not sure we can understand entirely why Ace did what he did just yet, and we may have to keep on truckin' simply based on what we've learned about people in general so far.
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EPT
