Roulette Mini Mafia - Page 3

On June 07 2013 08:56 layabout wrote:
Ace comes back and jumps on rayne immediately claiming it's because of fuba's case. Then he look's more in depth at the wagon and tries to see if anyone will switch. He unvotes and ends the day without voting. To me this behavior feels a little off for mafia. It's careless.

+ Show Spoiler +

Also explain why scum would fakeclaim in this setup and that weakens your claim significantly.

On June 07 2013 09:17 WaveofShadow wrote:
Alright we're going to have to take this slowly and methodically.
With this claim (or fakeclaim) I don't think it's possible for both Oats and Ace to be scum. They can both be town if Oats is a miller...is miller self-aware or not? (I would assume not.) Ace could be scum fakeclaiming as Oats says, or it could be as simple as cop Ace catching scum Oats.

I think it might make sense to have a look at all of the theory talk Ace had been doing regarding setup to see if it's likely he would try a fakeclaim here.

Just getting this stuff all down in the thread; I will be doing all the stuff I've said myself pretty soon.

On June 07 2013 09:25 mkfuba07 wrote:
Ooh, this is getting exciting.

On June 07 2013 11:39 kitaman27 wrote:


lol, that's a silly statement.



So you are you saying you weren't trying to turn around a lynch that you believed to be a mislynch? Perhaps I'm having trouble getting things straight regarding whether or not you wanted to lynch rayn at the end of the cycle?



You're getting lynched if you afk for a second cycle. There is more to discuss past the cop check.

On June 07 2013 11:21 Oatsmaster wrote:

Not a point.

He can just say, OH MILLER MY BAD.
And cause its 1 shot night roles, he doesnt have to explain why he is alive or not roleblocked or whatever.
You understand?
1 reason why I think Ace is scum its cause he isnt addressing the scum side of possibly claiming cop in this setup AT all. Thats bad. Thats really bad.


you're wrong about me.
Maybe you are wrong about Ace too.

On June 07 2013 13:59 jaybrundage wrote:

Wow never thought about that if scum get cop tmw they can really cause a shitstorm.
With that being said vote for ace the wagon of justice calls.

On June 07 2013 14:03 VayneAuthority wrote:


The day is young and it's late here so im going to bed but im leaning towards lynching oats at this point as town getting cop is more likely than scum getting it. People hate that I play like that but yea. Percentages all day.

On June 07 2013 14:11 jaybrundage wrote:


Tunneling you? Are you kidding me you were not even on my radar till this last night. Your weird as hell reasoning with the people on your wagon having the wrong reasoning for voting someone holds no water at all.

You thought you had a legitimate reason to vote rayn as scum. But when other people are voting for inactivity you say it could be a mislynch. Did it not occur to you that a scum could be inactive. Scum lurk all the damn time.

Mafia could of got cop today and just are trying to get a free mislynch. While it is less likely numbers wise. The fact that your scummy makes it a lot easier to mafia got the cop role.

As for Oats. I have been pretty null on him. He hasn't really been a player in the game IMO. He was just calling for your lynch for reasons I didn't really agree with (mostly inactivity reasons i believe) I would like to see more from him

@Oats I would like it if you write up a bit why you think prlphz is scum.

On June 07 2013 14:21 jaybrundage wrote:
But you know what ace I'll give you benefit of the doubt.

If you were not going for Oats as your scum read Could you gimme your 3 top scum reads and your 3 best town reads thx Brosef

On June 07 2013 15:13 Oatsmaster wrote:

Why dont you look at who got the fucking cop.
Ace. A dude that has been whining about us lynching him for his lack of activity.
Ace, who has never fully explained his read on me.
Ace, who tried to switch off rayn and get other people lynched. Namely me.
Then again I did this too, so maybe its not a scum tell.
Ace, who is scum!

On June 07 2013 18:52 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:
Vayne and prplhz voted for Oats and defending Ace on little evidence despite public opinion, are we having a repeat of the rayn lynch? Can we be right twice?

##unvote
##vote: ace

On June 07 2013 20:06 Oatsmaster wrote:


Ace is scum because

This post is shit reasoning why someone is town. 'no reservations' does not make someone town. Shit. And Ace isnt shit. Therefore he is scum fabricating a reason for a town read he already knows is true.

OK PRP time.

Reading through his filter, I find that I read that its townie. Ok.
Prp is town.
Why?
Generally because he brought up Rayn as a lynch target earlier, and although he switched off of rayn, he explained it in a townlike way that was similar to what I thought.
Whoop.

Stay on Ace guys.

On June 07 2013 20:42 prplhz wrote:
Right.

I don't see why a scum Ace would want to trade 1-for-1 with some townie that people were already throwing suspicion on. The most logical conclusion then is that he is town who got a red check. I'm not willing to dismiss a red check because of the 1/9 offchance that you're the miller. There are also some other things pointing at you being scum such as your weird Ace push yesterday and how you wanted us to lynch outside of you and Ace. Scum would obviously want that because if Ace flips town then you're dead the next day, delaying this little duel you have going will net you extra KP for another cycle which is bad.

On June 07 2013 21:53 prplhz wrote:
I don't really think of Ace as someone who crumbles under what little pressure he was under.

On June 07 2013 22:05 JarJarDrinks wrote:
It is a point. It may not be a point that stands on it's own. But it would be dumb not to take it into consideration.

You know that he can't just say "OH MILLER MY BAD" and expect to not get lynched. There's like a 6% chance that you rolled miller. We just can't take miniscule possiblities into account like that.

On June 07 2013 22:28 Oatsmaster wrote:

Yes it makes me look bad, no its not fucking relevant. Ask Kita, Ask Ace. This numbers thing should not be why you wanna lynch me rather than Ace.

Scum IS gonna make a 1 for 1 trade rather than a 1 for none. Especially since they get rid of a vocal townie in the process. Ace may have felt that this ploy was the only way he would survive to the end of the day. I dont know. Too many things to speculate about which means that its not useful in determining my alignment, or Ace's alignment.


Tell me why please, not referring to the fact that I am checked red by a claimed cop.

On June 07 2013 23:21 kitaman27 wrote:
First off, Ace's "if Oats flips town you can cop check me" idea is absolutely terrible. If oats flips town then we lynch Ace and use the cop check on a player who know don't already know the alignment of.

1:1 trade is deceiving in name. It's really 1 mafia in exchange for two wasted cycles of discussion, a mislynch, and an extra kp by preserving the mafia numbers.

10v3 would end up as 6v2, assuming no saves, although saves are pretty likely in this setup. Speaking of the setup, I think a shorter game definitely benefits mafia and mafia do appear to be playing the numbers game based on the night hits.

From a mafia perspective, in Ace's position, I would only make the fake claim if I deemed the upcoming cycle to be doomed from the start, whether it be the top two mafia candidates being scum or the top scum candidate being unquestionably lynched. 6v2 gives the mafia a fighting chance, but 9v2 is pretty much over.

I hate that Ace is the one providing the check, but I think a cop check is a sub-optimal mafia strategy from his current position. If I were a mafia Ace, I'd go for the mislynch this cycle and pull shenanigans on day three if the opportunity were available. If he is indeed offering himself up in a poor exchange, then I suppose we take it and go into day four in a good position.

If I had a town read on Oats, I might reconsider, but with him flopping from Sent to prpl and then considering for a moment that someone other than Ace should be lynched,

##Vote: Oatsmaster

I do question in what world Ace considers being afk as a viable defense. If you're busy, yet still signed up for the game, give up some sleep if you have to. I'm quite willing to switch back to Ace if he doesn't provide a scum read outside of a cop check on Oats. As a town cop, he certainly has put no effort into establishing his credibility and he needs to comment on other individuals.

Oats, I'd suggest you provide as many reads as possible. Calling people scum in caps doesn't count. Maybe you can sway me.

On June 07 2013 23:31 Oatsmaster wrote:
Kita,
I dont think prp is currently scum, sent scumslipped so there's that too. Ace/Sent wouldve probably been discussion topics, and now its Ace and me.

Someone other than Ace should be lynched when there is a possibility of me having gotten miller. Which is low. And since I read through his filter again, and the fact that mafia KP gets lowered if we lynch scum today, I firmly wanna lynch Ace.

Why are you so dense?


You see, my current hypothesis about Ace's absence, is that he knew he would be absent and he knew that fakeclaiming cop check on me would be the only way someone other than him gets lynched.

On June 07 2013 23:48 Stutters695 wrote:
Absence isn't a scum tell on its own.
I also don't think Ace was a guaranteed lynch without the claim.

I need to check both of you guys but right now I'm finding it hard to believe ace would lie when it wasn't absolutely necessary.

On June 07 2013 23:49 JarJarDrinks wrote:
All I'm saying is it should be taken into consideration. It should NOT ne ignored.

Why would they believe that it's gonna be a 1 for none? I saw nothing indicating that Ace would be lynched today. In fact I think town sentiment was that Sentinel was on the chopping block. So if scum made this play to save Sent then they exposed Ace in doing so and if you turn up green and we Lynch Ace and he's scum, then Sent is probably not far behind. So congrats, your death netted us 2 scum.

See this is why Ace's play makes no sense for scum. You're saying that there's too many things to speculate about. But I'm not seeing any situation that makes sense here for scum. Please point out a scenerio where Ace exposing himself makes sense. Because "he felt he couldnt handle the pressure." sure as heck isn't a good reason.

You keep saying not to refer to the biggest piece of evidence against you. But Ok, to answer, here was my original case against you:
+ Show Spoiler +
Like I was already voting for you yesterday. It's not like the cop thing is the only thing I'm considering

On June 07 2013 23:50 kitaman27 wrote:


I think you have to treat continued absence as a scum tell, otherwise it establishes a policy that it's fine to disappear without consequence.

On June 08 2013 01:01 Stutters695 wrote:

Continued absence without any posting sure, but when there is posting there is stuff to interpret. People accuse me of being scum when I'm absent all the time, but reading my posts should make it pretty obvious I'm not. Rayne avoided saying anything in his posts and was lynched for it. Oats throwing out incredibly unlikely theories of how Ace is lying because he is absent isn't a reason to lynch and he should be showing how his posting shows that he's absent with the intent of avoiding discussion or something equally scummy.

Hopefully that makes sense, typing from my phone.

On June 08 2013 01:18 Vivax wrote:
My analysis of Sentinel's play and why he is most likely town:





At first glance this post looked really scummy for the reasons he used to switch to ace, but it provides valuable information.
Sentinel is basing all his reasoning on two other people being scum, while having Oats as scummy as well (I disagree with the notion but it's probably town-motivated)

Now, imagine Oats is scum and Sentinel too. That doesn't really fit, right? Sentinel has been pushing Oats throughout D1, then he added Vayne and prplhz as his scumreads, and ace revealed the cop check, and Sentinel thinks "Oh well two scummers are on another scummers' wagon so ace is scum", and Oats can't be scum.

What has been going on here? These are the explanations:

1: Sentinel is scum, Oats is miller and ace is cop. Sentinel lynches Ace and still can lynch Oats afterwards. (improbable)
2: Sentinel is scum, Oats is standard town and ace is scum. Sentinel busses ace over his scumread for maximum town cred cause he knows that whatever happens, ace will die after Oats. (improbable, he has been pushing Oats all the time before)
3: Sentinel is town and genuinely thinks that Oats can't be scum cause two other scum reads vote for him, discarding the possibility that they know that Oats will die sooner or later. (probable)

That means that, in case of an Oats red flip, Sentinel is town. And in case of an Ace red flip, he's also town, simply cause I don't see him going for an ace bus when all he has been doing so far in the game would have allowed him to keep pushing Oats instead of ace.

If Oats was miller, then the reasoning is obviously useless, but I guess we have to gamble here.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

As for who to choose today, Ace was in no danger of getting lynched any time soon, and Oats seems like a likely target for a check for his strange D1 tunnel on Ace. I've never played against scum-Ace, but I doubt he would be so stupid to throw away his life with a fake check, hoping that town believes Oats was miller last night.

On June 08 2013 01:33 Oatsmaster wrote:
Vivax, what zeph said doesnt mean anything. He didnt provide a conclusion. You wanna provide a conclusion?



Ok. Current Premise im operating under until Ace returns. He knew that if he were to just normally afk, HE WOULD GET LYNCHED, No doubt. 0. People were already turning to the idea of lynching Ace. So he busts out fake cop check to make sure I get lynched(Most fucking vocal person in the thread) And he doesnt die today.
Also when he gets me lynched. Oh miller, sorry guys.
ITS NOT A 1 for 1, and you guys need to stop thinking that way.

On June 08 2013 01:45 JarJarDrinks wrote:
Can you show me where you're getting this from? Serious question because I really never felt that anyone aside from you were considering lynching Ace.

On June 08 2013 01:49 WaveofShadow wrote:

I do remember other people warming up to the idea a little, me being one of them, that being said, Ace isn't the kind of person to freak out and fakeclaim because he's worried about being lynched that early.
(That's something I'd do lolololol)

On June 08 2013 01:54 Oatsmaster wrote:
Kita, some people were warming up to the idea

Kita posted this just before deadline

Remember this?
So people were gearing up to lynch Ace, Ace thought this nails him, he fakeclaims redcheck on me, we end up here.

On June 08 2013 01:55 Oatsmaster wrote:

The thing is.
Fakeclaiming in this setup isnt risky.

LOL MILLER OOPS.

Yeah.
yeah.
I think its a perfectly legit mafia strat.

On June 08 2013 02:26 VayneAuthority wrote:
idk man in carnival you tried to lynch people that you actually thought were scum, whether it was vets or scrubs. You seem to have a build up in your town games that allows you to reach that point and vote where as in your scum games you're kinda just like THIS GUY IS SCUM and vote him and tunnel it.

On June 08 2013 03:28 WaveofShadow wrote:
Vayne
Null-leaning scum. I'm not sure I can push a lynch through today, doubt it's even a good idea to do so.Getting this stuff out there nonetheless.

This coming from a guy who says

So, you don't really care for meta when used on you, but you're ok to use it to back up a scumread about whom you haven't offered up any other evidence other than 'gutreads,' and 'percentages?'

On June 08 2013 03:53 JarJarDrinks wrote:
Heh I actually agree w/ Oats on that last one. The only scenerio in which I can imagine scum Ace lying about Oats is if Sent is also scum and they decided to take a huge gamble becuase Sent looked like he was headed towards a noose today. Sent planting seeds that he may not vote for Ace worries me.

On June 08 2013 03:57 VayneAuthority wrote:
Im pretty much confirmed town after rayne flipped red, anyone pushing on me reminds me of goodkarma from the les mis game, except im goodkarma this game.

On June 08 2013 04:02 kitaman27 wrote:
If Ace doesn't start posting, I'm canceling the NBA finals. Don't test me! (Me and Stern former scum buddies),

On June 08 2013 06:20 WaveofShadow wrote:

Before filter diving I can say that I have experienced this play of his before in the last game we were in together and he was town.

Anything that people attribute to him as scummy I was essentially told in Carnival Cruise 'just Oats being Oats.'
In fact, I'd really like Ace to comment on Oats in this game vs Carnival Cruise since he hosted it.

If it's too much to ask him to do come up with this himself, then when i get the chance later I will dig up examples for him to look at.

On June 08 2013 06:33 layabout wrote:

His playstyle mathces what i have seen of his town, in particular is is suspicious of me again, He wants to lynch prplhz if not Ace and i am inclined to agree with him (but more on that if it becomes a possibilty/ before nks).

On June 08 2013 06:47 jaybrundage wrote:

Ugh im struggling with sent as a read. I dont like his flip flop from oats. He was really against oat's push on ace. Then after ace makes the cop claim. Sent just completly reverses.

On one hand I think ace is scum so i like it. But on the other the complete turn around doesn't seem very townie. The reasoning for it too is bad. You shouldn't change your opinion of someones alignment cause your other scum reads voted for your scum read. Because at the end of the day you have no idea whether they are scum or not. Not to mention it was a reverse from someone Sent defended to someone hes trying to lynch now. I honestly don't know what to make of him. But regardless I want to kill ace so. Ill deal with sent tmw.

On June 08 2013 07:03 jaybrundage wrote:

If Ace is scum he can just back out with a Miller MAH BAD bullshit.

If anything if ace is as strong a mafia player as so many say he would just fakeclaim like he did on Oats. Then try to talk him self out the second lynch by saying Oats was miller.

On June 08 2013 08:43 Stutters695 wrote:
Well it's one of my main points in favoring an oats lynch.

That and the fact that scum Ace should be wise enough to realize that a 2-1 trade isn't in scums favor when we still haven't mislynched. I really can't read oats though and that worries me.

On June 08 2013 10:17 jaybrundage wrote:


This isn't even coherent nor does it have any logic.

1Ace got on the Rayn wagon early left it. Went on Oats then came back on it because of Fuba's reasoning saying it was sound reason for why Rayn could be scum. He thought he had a valid reason for trying to lynch Rayn. But later in the day he compiled the votes and said that if people were voting for Rayn cause he was inactive then it might be a mislynch. This doesn't make any sense and doesnt follow logic.

On June 08 2013 12:59 jaybrundage wrote:

Wtf? You really don't even feel confident to say one other scum read. It helps stimulate discussion. Thats why even tho we are lynching in a pool of two. We should still talk about other scum reads so we can gauge reactions and see what people's opinions are. What do you plan to do the rest of the day if your not willing to talk about other scum reads?

Or is it that your afraid of saying your scum read. And then later when you flip flop and dont take stances (like you usually do my scum friend) You wont have to worry about what you said earlier.

On June 08 2013 14:17 Oatsmaster wrote:
Ace, lets say this whole situation didnt happen. Someone else got cop.
Would your activity be the same?
Do you think you would be under more pressure/votes?

Ace, why are you being reactive rather than proactive? Reactive is what scum do cause they dont have a reason to be proactive.

On June 08 2013 14:18 Oatsmaster wrote:
Also Ace,
talk about the fakeclaiming side of this.
Is it likely, why/why not, what benefits does fakeclaiming have, what disadvantages and so on.

On June 08 2013 16:18 WaveofShadow wrote:
Ace if you're still around, can I ask you one more thing?
I still don't understand your reasoning around which you argued with jaybrundage and your removal of your vote from the Rayn wagon. Your reasoning that he might be a mislynch because other people are voting him for inactivity...I just don't follow it whatsoever. If a bunch of people are voting somebody scummy for the wrong reasons, but you know someone is scum and you vote him for the right reasons, then all that matters is after the successful lynch you have to look at those who were doing so for the wrong reasons. It doesn't mean you shouldn't lynch someone you still find scummy.

Overall I'd say I'm pretty damn convinced of your towniness (though this is probably the most effort I've ever seen you put into a game, and I've never seen you play scum...lololol) but I want to go over a couple other things as well.

You mentioned you don't see why anyone would vote prplhz did you mean today specifically? Because personally his Rayn flipflop still looks awful to me and after this thing between you and Oats is dealt with one way or another he's going to have to be looked at.

You also mentioned you agree with my analysis of Vayne...the problem is I'm not so sure I agree with me. Again, meta states he should be town with this shit way he's playing, but I just don't see why anyone who wants to show people they are town would play so blatantly horribly. (Again if you take what he said about changing his own meta at face value it flips around and he's playing scummy or something.)

Some other random things worrying me like Vivax barely being around at all, me being not 100% sure of my Sent townread. I also still have to do an objective filter dive of Oats and I don't think I'll get to it tonight.

On June 08 2013 16:35 Oatsmaster wrote:
Um lol Im not playing ANYTHING like carnival. Where do you get that conclusion from?
Carnival, I was sheepy sheepy lazy townie, I didnt really push anyone.

The thing that worries me about Vivax, is that he has done all the 'right' things, but he hasnt been anywhere near as active as he has been normally.

Ace, would you do this cop thing if you were scum? Since your current position is that you are town. Pretend you are scum in the thread. Would you do it.
Town is Ace's current role as he has said it to the thread.

On June 08 2013 16:50 Oatsmaster wrote:

Can you point out where my play is similar to Carnival?

On June 08 2013 16:51 Oatsmaster wrote:

I dont like this sentence.
I dont know why.

Ace, can you explain what risk is involved fake claiming a red check that turns out green?

On June 08 2013 16:52 Oatsmaster wrote:
Ace, why are going through and answering stuff post by post? How does this help town know you are town, and to find scum?

On June 08 2013 22:22 layabout wrote:

No i am explaining the risk for mafia fake-claiming since it's not as bad as Ace is telling us it is.

I would have preferred if we had done that earlier on but that's actually a terrible idea. I think there would be more value in a check on someone else.

On June 08 2013 22:25 JarJarDrinks wrote:
OK, but I feel like a an Oats/Sent team is kinda unlikely and Sent is just blatently scum right now. I'd still rather Lynch Oats than you for all the reasons I've already said. But I;d rather Lynch Sent than either of you




Ace, you do realize that is Oats flips green, you're autolynched tomorrow. The cop isn't gonna waste a check on you. I really don't like how you're already making contingency plans for a town flip. If we're planning on wasting a copcheck on you in the case of a mislynch, it makes more sense to not lynch you or Oats today and wait till we get results back.

This is why I think we should lynch Sent today. An unlucky miller check basically means we lose 6 townies before we get back to the game. We should lynch Sent cause he's scum, have the cop check Ace tonight, and lynch one of Ace/Oats tomorrow.