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Marshall Islands1474 Posts
On January 28 2013 10:26 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2013 10:24 FiveTouch wrote:On January 28 2013 10:23 Mocsta wrote:
Oats.. can you seriously consider 2 mad hatters in this game? Why not?? I thought the way the roles went was that the letter for mad hatter had to come up multiple times, to get multiple characters. therefore, the chances of 1 mad hatter >>> chances of 2 mad hatter (Statistically) same reason its unlikely to have 3 detectives
why (even given your mistake) would 2 detectives be more likely than 2 mad hatters?
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Marshall Islands1474 Posts
like, you seem to be accepting the existence of 2 detectives...
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Marshall Islands1474 Posts
On January 28 2013 10:35 yamato77 wrote:
I know of 4 masons, 1 DT, 1 Medic, 1 Miller, and 1 Mad Hatter, all modconfirmed town.
If we believe Vivax/Annul's claims, that puts town at 10 blues, double the number of mafia players total.
I don't think this game is THAT imbalanced.
Don't take this the wrong way, but you have no idea how games are/need to be balanced
Miller isn't blue, and masons are unconfirmed as town
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Marshall Islands1474 Posts
On January 28 2013 10:38 Mocsta wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2013 10:36 FiveTouch wrote:
like, you seem to be accepting the existence of 2 detectives... Do i? Didnt think I was following Vivax around blindly And the 3 Dets vs 2 mad haters, was due to me thinking it was letter rolling. (as all the games i played have been like that) austin/adam already cleared that up. i said i apologised for confusion. I obviously shoudl have shut up when im not familiar with how all this stuff works. I realise that now and am avoiding any setup talk, its clear i dont know it.
but you said 3 DTs was unlikely, which implies that 2 is likely, whereas 2 mad hatters was extremely unlikely. This is kinda curious.
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Marshall Islands1474 Posts
Millers aren't self-aware...
And again, masons (in general) are not confirmed town. It's just we happen to have flipped two mafia masons already.
Plus the original balance (17-5) is somewhat mafia-favoured.
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Marshall Islands1474 Posts
Ok, right. I need to take a break.
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Marshall Islands1474 Posts
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Marshall Islands1474 Posts
debears, like I already stated, you don't really count masons as full blues like you would in for example C9++ setups, because of the existence of mafia masons.
Plus 20-5 is the usual balance, so with 17-5 town probably would have been given more blues. I kinda expect there to be at least another miller, too. Effectivel 17-5 vs 20-5 is one less mislynch mafia need, which is quite huge.
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Marshall Islands1474 Posts
thanks for repeating me annul, top job
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ok annul, I'm just a little grumpy.
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Marshall Islands1474 Posts
We need to stop gaming the setup and look for mafia the normal way, I think.
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Already stated in thread, Stutters. I don't know why you haven't read the thread to be honest.
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I've been thinking a little, and I feel better now. We have a tonne of mislynches, plenty of information, and some tricks up our sleeve. I'll talk more about it tomorrow evening.
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Marshall Islands1474 Posts
We don't even know if grush is actually mason (could be Jack).
grush really needs to get his little bum in here and start talking to us.
Yes you, grush.
Mocsta: Day 2 Chez -> debears, Toad -> bugs, Day 3 yamato -> Toad.
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Marshall Islands1474 Posts
On January 28 2013 22:22 Vivax wrote:
Why would grush use a jack stack like that on yamato?
I'd see grush going 100 % vigi with a jack role.
He's been paying little attention to this game, and in LVIII he didn't shoot on night 1. He might yet have a vigi bullet up his sleeve. He could still be mason (but then who has he masoned?) but Jack is a possibility too.
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Marshall Islands1474 Posts
On January 28 2013 22:34 Vivax wrote:
Well, we know he would be a town jack in that case, kinda pointless to talk about this unless you think he's scum.
Anyway, we know that yamato didn't tell grush anything about Chez, and didn't tell anything to town about Chez. He just told town that he thinks grush is mafia cause he didn't push for more communication.
But yamato didn't push for communication either.
To be honest, I don't know if I should believe that the ones masoning Chez D1 aren't mafia. You know what I thought of both of them throughout the game, and I could see this as a mindfuck attempt.
They never tried to make conclusions openly about Chez's alignment until this day right? Or did yamato tell you something decisive D2, FT?
I think they both thought he was tentatively town coming into Day 2, which seemed fair enough, as he had seemingly been putting in far more effort in PMs than in the thread.
The thing is, we've already had 2 mafia masons flip, and then there's Mocsta/yamato/Toad/(grush?). That would be about the ratio of mafia-town masons that I would be expecting.
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Marshall Islands1474 Posts
On January 28 2013 22:41 Vivax wrote:
Well if I had to pick between yamato and Mocsta I'd say Mocsta is scum as of now. Him trying to make connections between me and Chez on a weak basis right before the flip looked pretty ugly.
Gonna filter dive a little.
It seems unlikely just due to mason numbers that either of them are mafia. You have to remember that bugs made his list before he died not knowing that moc+yam+chez were masons.
There are people like Stutters/fuba who don't have anything like this going for them. Bodyguards should also be left until later, ideally.
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Marshall Islands1474 Posts
On January 28 2013 23:03 Vivax wrote:
FT, Mocsta
Would you lynch fuba tomorrow?
Right now I'm heavily considering Stutters, because he missed the fact you claimed the check on bugs.
He explained himself by basically saying he's ignoring your posts.
This is all very well, but both Toad and I (and others too) repeatedly made mention of the check. This signals an absolute failure to read the thread; not good.
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Marshall Islands1474 Posts
Yeah, that's no more of a scumslip than you assuming gonzaw used his Jack shot Night 1 
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Marshall Islands1474 Posts
Vivax, while we're both here - if you are indeed town, you should probably check someone we're not likely to lynch tomorrow. Also, beware the framer.
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EPT
