SSB-64 Mafia - Page 2

On July 03 2012 06:44 kingdedede wrote:
Why do you think it's worse off for Town than Mafia, Risen? How would splitting up the players over the three spots help town? Either way, the chance of hitting town compared to scum is 'equal' in that the expected value doesn't change. The only thing that changes by changing spots is variance, and I haven't heard an argument that the higher variance leads to a better outcome for Town.

On July 03 2012 06:50 Cephiro wrote:
Because you're clearly smarter than me, would you care to explain more in-detail why do you consider that both factions losing percentually the same amount of stock out of their total, thus the ratio staying the same, is worse off for town?

If I understood right, you'd rather do a 3-2-3 split. Assuming there are 2 scum, best case scenario is if both scum end up in the middle and a tornado hits them both. Chances of this happening is (1/3)*(1/4)*(1/7) ~ 1,18%
Worst case scenario is that it hits three townies: (1/3)*(3/4)*(5/7)*(2/3) ~ 11,19%

The chance of worst case scenario happening for town is almost 10 times higher than scum, if my math is not wrong.

Can you explain me why your plan is better?

Especially as iGrok's plan only has a 33% chance of anyone taking damage, and if it happens, we all take damage in an equal ratio.

On July 03 2012 06:54 kingdedede wrote:

Statistically there is no difference, therefore I'm indifferent to the choice of either of these. The only thing you're doing is instead of having 100% hit 1 out of 3 times, you're having 33% hit 3 out of 3 times, with no knowledge gained over who scum is and who isn't. Therefore I consider the entire thing pretty pointless.
/Art

On July 03 2012 06:58 Cephiro wrote:


Assuming everyone stands left and gets hit by tornado (33% chance)

Town stock before Tornado = 6 x 3 = 18
Mafia stock before Tornado = 2 x 3 = 6
Town Stock : Mafia Stock Ratio = 18 : 6 -> 3 : 1

Town stock after Tornado = 6 x 2.5 = 15
Mafia stock after Tornado = 2 x 2.5 = 5
Town Stock : Mafia Stock Ratio = 15 : 5 -> 3 : 1

.... I still don't get what you are going at. What information do we get from "everyone stands where they want" then?

On July 03 2012 07:00 Cephiro wrote:


False. Expected damage average is 1.33 KP in every situation. And you have no way of controlling whom it goes to.

On July 03 2012 07:02 Mister Saturn wrote:
Spreading out everyone isn't hedging your bets.... You're just increasing the chance of having either a best-case scenario (only mafia get hit) and the worst-case (only town gets hit).

On July 03 2012 07:05 Mister Saturn wrote:
wait, what. why do i have 2 stock.

- Hiro

On July 03 2012 07:07 kingdedede wrote:
This makes no sense at all. How did iGrok lose stock, but Risen didn't if they were on a square together.

Also, what is there that causes 1 stock loss in item/stage events?

I don't understand shit. Unless Hiro is not lined up with the rest and got hit by a tornado AND ignored iGrok's plan and stacked on iGrok (and Risen didn't).

/confused Acro

On July 03 2012 07:25 kingdedede wrote:
Fuck it, iGrok has effectively made himself unlynchable: I don't think iGrok and mister saturn can be scum together based on what just happened, so unless we're okay with mister saturn losing another 1.5 stock in the lynch, it's not even worth discussing at this point :S

iGrok: I don't know what to think of this. Artanis and I will talk it over more, but I can't believe you just screwed up your own plan.

/Acro

On July 03 2012 07:44 iGrok wrote:
I can't tell my reasoning on saturn until tomorrow.

Top picks for lynch are ##Vote: Talisman

On July 03 2012 09:27 HomerunBat wrote:
Yea I kinda did provide reasoning. I pretty clearly read iGrok's derp as a townie mistake, and your reaction to it is telling. Are you still going to shoot iGrok?

Also, there are two scum. Grush may be scum, I don't have any idea. I don't think anybody does. I don't want him around in the SSB version of LYLO.

Depending on how talismania spends the rest of day 1, I might replace grush with him. I want to hear what Shiao has to say on him too.

On July 03 2012 09:39 Mister Saturn wrote:


You're not answering my question. The scummy part of iGrok's play isn't that he screwed up. Townies and scum both screw up. The scummy part is that he refuses to justify it and is pushing a case on someone else despite considering me guarunteed scum (look at the way he mentions me).

If I'm still alive night 2, iGrok is eating a bullet.

On July 03 2012 10:09 HomerunBat wrote:
Hiro/saturn- You're right, I assumed your question was in regards to my post. I see now you were asking me about iGrok.

I agree with you that the way he is hopping around doesn't look good. He picked you to carry earlier on in the day, claimed you were scum. Some time elapsed, then he was wanting to kill talismania and grush. Since he provides no reasoning, it's impossible to know why his mind changed, but it could be as simple as that. He got his first scum read on you, chose to carry. Somewhere in the interim he decided you weren't scum, and switched horses. He can't uncarry you until night 1.

His derp looks town to me. I'm not shy in saying it. That's why at this point I'm assuming he just changed his mind on you, and in his hubris didn't think he had to explain. He promises that he will next day, and when he does I'll adjust accordingly.

On July 03 2012 11:26 Mister Saturn wrote:


Is this guy always this useless?

- Hiro

On July 04 2012 05:33 talismania wrote:


Where's strongandbig been at?

I dunno I still think you're scum, got pissed about going down to 2 kp so soon, and kinda panicked and pushed igrok and since then you've been willing to push anyone and everyone. You fished the vote from acro out on me so that you could hop on. I think that had everything gone to plan with the item you would be on Risen right now.