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Election Mafia - Page 7

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
December 16 2011 20:17 GMT
#1577
Curu if you were town I just cannot understand why you would crumble the second pressure is put on you.
"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
December 16 2011 20:27 GMT
#1589
On December 17 2011 05:18 Comprissent wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 17 2011 05:14 GreYMisT wrote:
On December 17 2011 04:57 GiygaS wrote:
I'm going to analyse the dead player's filters.

prplhz's Filter
+ Show Spoiler +
What did he do that would make a mafia lynch him?
He's a vet, this could be enough reason on his own, but let's look at what he did(Key points in bold):
- Casts suspicion on Zeks, was near the top of the list to do so
- Successfully stopped MrZentor lynch
- Mentions that the withdrawal thing might have just been to get Arc out of the position.
- Voted for Refallen (later retracted quickly)
- Against Spaackle lynch (More for Nisani)
---------------------------------------------------------------------- Lynch on Spaackle
- Initiated the suspicion on Eiii(now dead sorry again guys )
- Mentions that Nisani should have been the bandwagon people went on: implied(imo) that mafia probably moved the vote to Spaackle (Radfield? :/)
- Put some questions on Risk.Nuke (note: this was around the time that almost everyone and his mom was doing this)

So what conclusion can we draw from Prplhz's filter?
He was suspicious of Nisani, and Zeks, mainly. While I earlier did say that it could be just vet killing, I believe it was either A) To save either the ass of Nisani or Zeks and
B) To stop him from continuing his suspicions on who started the Spaackle bandwagon.
C) Vet Killing


xksc's filter
+ Show Spoiler +

First of all, I belive more analysis can be drawn from this kill, because he was already under suspicions, and he isn't a big veteran presence like prplhz. So let's look at his filter shall we?
- Lots of fluff before he mentions MarserBlood
- Against the MrZentor Bandwagon
- Mentions MarserBlood again
- Started questioning Risk (before the big investigation on him happened)
- Voted Spaackles with 10 minutes left (later elaborated on said that he didn't agree with Nisani lynch)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- Again on MarserBlood
- Again on Risk (this is when investigation was on though)

I'm getting very suspicious of MarserBlood now o.O I'll look through his filter now and tell you what I come up with.


You can't really analyize the reasons behind night kills too much, it creates too much WIFOM.


So you would argue the hits were completely random?
And we should just ignore trying to explain any of the motivation for these kills?

I find it hard to believe scum would just pick targets at random. There has to be some reasoning behind their hits


Of course there is reasoning. that is not what WIFOM means. it means that you cannot predict the reasoning behind someone's actions when they are fully aware their actions will be scrutinized. For example, you might conclude prp died to take suspicion off of zeks, but what if mafia knew that and killed prp so we would think that is just what they were doing and zeks is really town? or maybe....

"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
December 16 2011 20:28 GMT
#1590
On December 17 2011 05:19 Curu wrote:
I'm not crumbling I just don't want to put forth the effort required. How do you want me to defend myself? The case is literally "Curu bandwagoned switched to Spaackle cause he sheeped Radfield!" which is completely untrue as I started the Spaackle lynch and convinced Radfield and "Erandorr is not posting!" which I can't do anything about.

Kita so sloooooooooow. Put me out of my misery!


then why not say the case is shit and just go along your merry way? you didnt have to do all this and yet you did.
"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
December 16 2011 20:35 GMT
#1598
On December 17 2011 05:29 Comprissent wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 17 2011 05:27 GreYMisT wrote:
On December 17 2011 05:18 Comprissent wrote:
On December 17 2011 05:14 GreYMisT wrote:
On December 17 2011 04:57 GiygaS wrote:
I'm going to analyse the dead player's filters.

prplhz's Filter
+ Show Spoiler +
What did he do that would make a mafia lynch him?
He's a vet, this could be enough reason on his own, but let's look at what he did(Key points in bold):
- Casts suspicion on Zeks, was near the top of the list to do so
- Successfully stopped MrZentor lynch
- Mentions that the withdrawal thing might have just been to get Arc out of the position.
- Voted for Refallen (later retracted quickly)
- Against Spaackle lynch (More for Nisani)
---------------------------------------------------------------------- Lynch on Spaackle
- Initiated the suspicion on Eiii(now dead sorry again guys )
- Mentions that Nisani should have been the bandwagon people went on: implied(imo) that mafia probably moved the vote to Spaackle (Radfield? :/)
- Put some questions on Risk.Nuke (note: this was around the time that almost everyone and his mom was doing this)

So what conclusion can we draw from Prplhz's filter?
He was suspicious of Nisani, and Zeks, mainly. While I earlier did say that it could be just vet killing, I believe it was either A) To save either the ass of Nisani or Zeks and
B) To stop him from continuing his suspicions on who started the Spaackle bandwagon.
C) Vet Killing


xksc's filter
+ Show Spoiler +

First of all, I belive more analysis can be drawn from this kill, because he was already under suspicions, and he isn't a big veteran presence like prplhz. So let's look at his filter shall we?
- Lots of fluff before he mentions MarserBlood
- Against the MrZentor Bandwagon
- Mentions MarserBlood again
- Started questioning Risk (before the big investigation on him happened)
- Voted Spaackles with 10 minutes left (later elaborated on said that he didn't agree with Nisani lynch)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- Again on MarserBlood
- Again on Risk (this is when investigation was on though)

I'm getting very suspicious of MarserBlood now o.O I'll look through his filter now and tell you what I come up with.


You can't really analyize the reasons behind night kills too much, it creates too much WIFOM.


So you would argue the hits were completely random?
And we should just ignore trying to explain any of the motivation for these kills?

I find it hard to believe scum would just pick targets at random. There has to be some reasoning behind their hits


Of course there is reasoning. that is not what WIFOM means. it means that you cannot predict the reasoning behind someone's actions when they are fully aware their actions will be scrutinized. For example, you might conclude prp died to take suspicion off of zeks, but what if mafia knew that and killed prp so we would think that is just what they were doing and zeks is really town? or maybe....



At the least it narrows a suspect list considerably. We can at least keep this in mind and reevaluate the suspects and their later actions


thats the problem though, it actually doesnt lower the suspect list. what if they just killed people to sidetrack us? what if there is no meaning? what if everything is just chaos?

A bit dramatic but you get my point, the only thing you can really do for sure with night kills is look at the flip, and then reread the thread with those roles in mind.
"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
December 16 2011 20:41 GMT
#1601
On December 17 2011 05:37 Arctocod wrote:
It appears he silenced himself, which equals scum claiming so vote for him please


what in the hell kind of power is that?
"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
December 16 2011 21:05 GMT
#1628
Sheth here is the way things stand right now. Curu just used his own silence power on himself. obviously we have only two courses of action, to lynch or not to lynch (earth-shattering i know). Here is the problem: Curu has obviously given up/lost interest and has proven that he does not have the town's interest in mind. This is either him folding under pressure as scum and giving up, trying to cause as much chaos as possible because he feels that he can't escape the lynch, or he is throwing a tantrum hoping the town self destructs and keeps him alive for another day. I want to repeat myself and say that there is NO reason a town player would do/act in the way curu has. ever.

If he is town he is no longer playing to win.

If he is scum well...
##Vote: professorbadass
"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
December 16 2011 21:07 GMT
#1630
also sheth and giygas your votes are formatted incorrectly.
"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
December 16 2011 22:53 GMT
#1669
On December 17 2011 07:28 risk.nuke wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 17 2011 07:18 kitaman27 wrote:
On December 17 2011 07:10 risk.nuke wrote:
Kita, ProfBad locking himself in the house, did he use it on himself or don't we know that. I'm asking because the post makes it sound like he did and if we're not supposed to know who did it it's purposly misleading


No comment

you can't "no comment", Hypotheticly if ProfBad used that abillity. would the post had looked just the same with a different name if he had used it on someone else or did you write that post biased by the circumstances.


Usually everything is to be regarded as flavor unless otherwise stated by the host.
"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
December 17 2011 02:06 GMT
#1688
On December 17 2011 11:04 VisceraEyes wrote:
Because he's pissed off at being lynched for no reason? Remember, I'm the cry-baby king over here, I can TOTALLY see a townie getting all snot-faced about being lynched from 1 word from Palmar. *shrug*


Thats the thing though, at that time he only had like 4 votes on him, and a lot of us were talking about other things.
"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
December 17 2011 02:15 GMT
#1694
Hey in PYP:I if i had a power that could silence meapak as he went down, I definatly would have used it. and i was town that game.
just sayin
"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
December 17 2011 04:45 GMT
#1707
On December 17 2011 11:30 VisceraEyes wrote:
Grey, what do you say to the accusation that you're guilty of changing your opinion of someone based entirely on town's sentiment?


I change my vote based in who I want to lynch. That's it.
"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
December 17 2011 16:37 GMT
#1739
On December 18 2011 01:04 DEUS-ex-MAFIA wrote:
hmm after filterin almost everyone individually, I made a scumranklist including scummyness of every player in this game. I'd like to discuss that list especially with radfield, Palmar and Syllo.
Do you think it's better to post that list now or better at the end of the night.
I think I got some correct and well reasoned townreads on several players... Maybe that would make them to scumtargets...
Although the advantage to discuss that list today is that we lay down more pressure on the people who I don't have a townread on and we have more time... So what do you think...

Moreover I know that you, Palmar and Syllo, already have such a list aswell. However I think we have some differences.
If we exchange our opinions, I guess we could nail down most of the scumteam...


I don't think you understand when to use ellipses (...).
Anyway I'll be retreading the thread today as well. Suggest everyone do the same.
"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
December 18 2011 01:30 GMT
#1785
Nice VE, that's how it's done
"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
December 18 2011 03:31 GMT
#1793
Guess we should save it for the post game, but I wonder why curu flipped like he did. Possibly to draw sympathy unvotes?
maybe more was going on at that time that we didnt notice, I'll have to reread that whole section.

"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
December 18 2011 05:11 GMT
#1802
Does anyone remember who made the first good case against evantrees? Im having a bit of trouble fining it.
"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
December 18 2011 05:38 GMT
#1804
Ok, i've been thinking. VE left us in a pretty kickass position, and not just because he got Bumatlarge. Bumatlarge was only under the slightest of pressures at that time, nothing like what other players were experiencing. This means that he was not posting to avoid death or shift blame. Unlike the case of curu where he basically just shut up, Bum continued to keep posting his "reads." Also we now know that VE is town, and his analysis can be treated as genuine. Here is what I have found after doing some research.

Bum and VE BOTH suspected evantrees. Both of their posts occured at around the same time, just 2 minutes appart, with Bum's occuring first. However, we can see that while VE's is in depth and detailed, Bum has a very skeleton analysis. I will touch on what this means in a second.

Next, when Bum began to garner suspicion, he said that he had "already found scum" and that it was a 100% guarnentee that evantrees would flip red.

Finally, VE has proven his scumhunting abilities this game to me by targeting Bum off of just 1 filter page to work with.


Now what does this mean when we put it together?
To me it paints a rather dismal picture for evantrees. the skeleton analysis of Bum on Evan resulted at a time where he (evan) was already under some scrutiny. The timing and the actual content of the analysis lead me to believe that this was a minor bus, with Bum hoping to post a fairly bad case so evan won't get lynched, but if a wagon starts he can be on it early. My next point was that Bum started to get some moderate pressure put on him, so he said that evan was 100% scum. Remember, we now know that Bum was mafia. Why risk saying someone was 100% scum if you both already know the aliengments of everyone, and you know they are a fairly big target? the only way that makes sense to me is if he was trying to divert attention from himself by directing attention to evantrees.

Because of these events I am fairly certain evan is scum. what do the rest of you think?
"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
December 18 2011 07:00 GMT
#1813
On December 18 2011 15:35 TotallyNotTwoPeople wrote:
Hmm, looks like I am triple posting. I guess nobody else is on right now :-(

@greymist
Interesting theory regarding evantrees, but the main issue I am having with evantrees being scum, is that upon reviewing his filter, the only person he tended to consistently call out as being suspicious of/slightly scummy, was ProfessorBadass.

Show nested quote +
Debating on voting for ProfessorBadass but there is this post...
On December 12 2011 14:44 ProfessorBadass wrote:
Well first thing's first:

Palmar is scum.

Palmar and I have a long history of never rolling the same alignment. Since I am Town this game Palmar must indeed be scum.

Also I am running for Mayor.

Show nested quote +
not certain by any means on ProfessorBadass one way or another, nor do we know exactly what roles are in this game but can kind of see scum going for pardoner to help keep their kp at 3 for as long as possible would it be worth sacrificing a member I'm not sure.
Show nested quote +
Sort of had to change my vote off Arctocod so wanted to put it somewhere, bit skeptical for ProfBA for some reason.
Show nested quote +
didn't want to vote forProfBA at the time had no better option to offer.
Show nested quote +
Gut says Comprissent is scum for some reason and has since early the first day and some suspicion on ProfessorBadass because arc was not dead night one kind of removing that reason for making him withdraw though yes he would be doomed to be hittable night two and on even if prplhz was still alive.

Do you think this is just more soft-bussing to give some more town cred to the other if one was lynched, or genuine suspicion?


It could be. As scum it is often hard to make a valid analysis on a town player, unless everyone is playing terribly. The above could be done to the same end as Bum's early accusations of evantrees, a weak case designed to appear like scumhunting, but never really meant to gain momentum.

I of course could be wrong, but to me this all makes sense. I would like Radfield's and Arctocod's input on this as well.
"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
December 18 2011 15:30 GMT
#1841
On December 18 2011 23:56 Arctocod wrote:
haven't read him.

I just noticed even back on day 1 greymist seemed... I don't know, passive, disinterested, distant etc.


Thats because on day one GeYMisT had exams, you can check the pregame for that excuse.

I'll answer your questions when I get back, but in the meantime at least talk about other people aside from me?
"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
December 18 2011 17:53 GMT
#1853
Alright so I'm still on my phone, but I'm going to make this as legible as possible.

I wanted professor badass in office because of te same reason I wanted arcticod and radfield. At that time I had no reason to think he was scum, and he was the next on the list of people most likely to be shot that night. I do agree that there is at least one scum on the vote list for professor badass though, as it would be pretty hilarious if he got in to office with 0 scum support.

I explained my reasoning earlier about the suggestion for MrZentor as secretary of defense. Remember at that time I thought it was a public rolecheck. I suggested Zentor because:

A. He already claimed his role in thread, allowing us to check if he was Lyning or not.

B. putting someone in who had already claimed would protect other blues from exposure

C. I did not believe any powers were associated with this role.
"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
GreYMisT
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States6736 Posts
December 18 2011 18:02 GMT
#1854
On December 19 2011 02:22 DEUS-ex-MAFIA wrote:
i had refallen on my townlist.
greymist is 95% scum.

will get back to this later and advice annul to post my list 1min before the night ends.


Just noting this for now, notice how dues (supersoft) said earlier that he is very good at telling my town from my scum, and because of this he would research me. Now notice how he waits for both arcticod and radfield to voice their suspicions before he posts. If he is so sure I am "95%" scum and he has as good of reads as he claims, why not say this earlier instead of waiting for Arcto and rad?

"life of lively to live to life of full life thx to shield battery" / Join TL Mafia! http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31
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2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
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