Pick Your Power Mafia!

On May 01 2010 14:09 Qatol wrote:
Okay, fun time. I've been doing some thinking about the game setup and have some thoughts for the town going forward:

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The first major item of note is this:
+ Show Spoiler [Vanilla Scum] +
This tells us 2 things:
1. The mafia only have 1 KP in a game with 19 players. They also only have 4 members. Why is this important? With all the rolecheck abilities out there, the mafia are unlikely to stand much of a chance unless they get some very powerful roles.

2. The mafia team knew who each other were during the draft phase and were allowed to communicate with each other during said phase. Assuming they talked to each other at all, they did not overlap with each other.

These 2 points lead us to a pretty simple conclusion:
The mafia made sure they have very low numbers and their numbers were probably consecutive in order to guarantee that they would wind up with powerful role choices. I wouldn't be surprised if they did something like:
[3] [1]
[4] [1]
[5] [1]
[6] [1]
in order to avoid overlapping with the town as much as possible while still keeping near the top. I think it is unlikely that they bid a [1] [1] or even a [2] [1] just because they were worried the town would also bid those numbers. Bill Murray already claimed he bid [1] [1]. I wouldn't be surprised if this was actually the case. I think L probably bid [2] [1] hoping that people would stack on 1. The people I'm looking at right now are these people in particular:
3. Foolishness
4. Korynne
5. Falcynn
I strongly believe that 1 or 2 of them are mafia. They are also likely to go for the roles the mafia will rely upon for the game. Remember that aside from the Copy Cat (which would be a risky role for the mafia to take), if the mafia want a role that gives them additional KP, they are likely to take it with these picks. I'm specifically thinking that the mafia here will be targeting Jack of All Trades, Day Vigilante, and Vengeful Player. Keep these 3 players in mind for later.

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I also propose that people announce something: whether or not you moved down and what you bid. Why would you do that and why would it matter? Because it gives us an idea of what range people bid in. Remember, we want to piece together who bid what because the mafia did not stack numbers on top of each other. I realize that the mafia can lie about this, but it really doesn't matter. If they lie about their bidding numbers, then the town has an opportunity to catch them in a lie based on who else bid that number. If someone moved down, they are placed in a group with the people around them. When you find a mafia in that group, it increases the level of trust with the people around you.

With this in mind, I would like to announce that I moved down. I bid [6] [1] thinking that the mafia might try for consecutive numbers starting between 2 and 4. That would mean that they would end between 6 and 8. I'm almost positive I overlapped with one of the mafia. This means that we should also be looking very hard at:
10. sidesprang
12. JeeJee

I confirmed with Ace that this situation:
A - [3] [1]
B - [3] [1]
C - [5] [1]
D - [5] [2]
will result in:
A and B are ordered randomly, C, D. The second tie does not move you down a second time.
This means that anyone who moved down yet is still above me bid at least a 6. Everyone below me moved down AND bid at most a 6. If you bid between 3 and 5 and moved down, it is especially important that you speak up.

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Why am I coming forward with this information right now and not after roles are selected? Because I want the town to deny the mafia the most powerful roles or at the very least control their use. We can't stop the mafia from taking roles to increase their KP, but we can still control who gets what role and try to keep the mafia away from the 3 most important ones: Inventor, Compulsive Vigilante, and Role Blocker. Why are these roles especially important? The first 2 provide the mafia with kill power EVERY NIGHT. The third one allows the mafia flexibility to get around this plan. Therefore, I want Bill Murray to take Inventor and L's replacement to take Compulsive Vigilante. Foolishness will take Roleblocker.

Bill Murray, you will be making meth bombs (if Ace allows it) or at least bulletproof vests for people every night. The day post will confirm that you followed these directions. This way you cannot give the mafia additional kill power.

L's replacement, the town will be directing your shots. We will vote during the day on your hit.

Foolishness, you will not be roleblocking anyone. If anyone claims to be roleblocked, we will immediately lynch you. Roleblocks are much stronger for the mafia than they are for the town. I would just as soon nobody get them.

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tl;dr:
Look hard at these 5:
3. Foolishness
4. Korynne
5. Falcynn
10. sidesprang
12. JeeJee

Claim your numbers. Revealing this information does not hurt the town but does hurt the mafia.

Bill Murray, L's replacement, Foolishness: you have additional instructions. Read them.

On May 02 2010 04:25 Qatol wrote:
Lots of stuff to comment about:

Thanks for the vote of confidence. You had better pick roleblocker.

Is there a good argument why we shouldn't? I haven't seen one so far.

On May 01 2010 14:09 Qatol wrote:

tl;dr:
Look hard at these 5:
3. Foolishness
4. Korynne
5. Falcynn
10. sidesprang
12. JeeJee

On May 04 2010 22:33 citi.zen wrote:

This possibility is pretty bothersome - we may learn less than advertised by lynching Sidersprang. That said, I would like to hear more from Qatol, he's sort of gone dormant after being very active early on.

On May 04 2010 23:30 JeeJee wrote:
now that we know this..

# Bill Murray	inventor
# Foolishness	comp vig
# Korynne		VANILLA
# Falcynn		VANILLA
# [NyC]HoBbes	ROLE
# ~Opz~		VANILLA
# d3_crescentia	MEDIC
# Caller		VANILLA
# sidesprang	?
# Qatol		VANILLA

let me add a piece of it as well
# JeeJee VANILLA

i didn't go for copycat so presumably we have some liars up in here
either that or hobbes is mafia
for the role that he is (or should be), he sure isn't doing shit with it.
then again neither is sidesprang so i'm at a loss here

so foolishness, who are you gonna hit tonight?