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Pick Your Power Mafia!

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
April 21 2010 21:43 GMT
#13
Rofl - let's go. #1 draft pick baby, pew pew laser.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
April 28 2010 00:08 GMT
#49
Thursday's fine. My goal will be to post at most 1/2 the usual amount in this game. Just so there's no confusion later on.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
April 28 2010 01:01 GMT
#51
On April 28 2010 09:25 flamewheel91 wrote:
QATOL IS PLAYING!?

Yeah man, you better sign up too!
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-04-29 20:49:25
April 29 2010 17:36 GMT
#75
On April 30 2010 00:03 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:
When do we send you our numbers?

You can send yours to me anytime really.

Edit: Please stop sending me numbers. I am playing, not hosting. LoL!
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
April 30 2010 03:26 GMT
#85
That was an awesome 3rd quarter /2nd half. One of the best bits of basketball in a while!
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
April 30 2010 03:40 GMT
#89
Most times nobody goes 1/1, so yeah, sure.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
April 30 2010 05:58 GMT
#97
ROFL - we already lost one?
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
May 01 2010 05:30 GMT
#120
I bid [12][3] thinking most people would pick in the top 10. Apparently a bad idea.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
May 02 2010 03:33 GMT
#213
Preliminary impressions:

Zona is town aligned; Quatol seems town aligned but less sure of it (scary if he isn't).

Foolishness is extremely shady - his first post is this ad-hominem attack:

On May 02 2010 03:04 Foolishness wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 01 2010 14:09 Qatol wrote:
Okay, fun time. I've been doing some thinking about the game setup and have some thoughts for the town going forward:


The first major item of note is this:
+ Show Spoiler [Vanilla Scum] +


You are Vanilla Scum!

The ability to kill 1 player per night belongs to you. One of you must PM me a kill for the night even though all 4 of you participate in the kill.

Remember you can coordinate your # picks during the draft phase. The Mafia team this round consists of: Jack, Jill, this bottle and my ecstasy pills!

You win when you outnumber the town, or there is no way for them to stop you from outnumbering them.

This tells us 2 things:
1. The mafia only have 1 KP in a game with 19 players. They also only have 4 members. Why is this important? With all the rolecheck abilities out there, the mafia are unlikely to stand much of a chance unless they get some very powerful roles.

2. The mafia team knew who each other were during the draft phase and were allowed to communicate with each other during said phase. Assuming they talked to each other at all, they did not overlap with each other.

These 2 points lead us to a pretty simple conclusion:
The mafia made sure they have very low numbers and their numbers were probably consecutive in order to guarantee that they would wind up with powerful role choices. I wouldn't be surprised if they did something like:
[3] [1]
[4] [1]
[5] [1]
[6] [1]
in order to avoid overlapping with the town as much as possible while still keeping near the top. I think it is unlikely that they bid a [1] [1] or even a [2] [1] just because they were worried the town would also bid those numbers. Bill Murray already claimed he bid [1] [1]. I wouldn't be surprised if this was actually the case. I think L probably bid [2] [1] hoping that people would stack on 1. The people I'm looking at right now are these people in particular:
3. Foolishness
4. Korynne
5. Falcynn
I strongly believe that 1 or 2 of them are mafia. They are also likely to go for the roles the mafia will rely upon for the game. Remember that aside from the Copy Cat (which would be a risky role for the mafia to take), if the mafia want a role that gives them additional KP, they are likely to take it with these picks. I'm specifically thinking that the mafia here will be targeting Jack of All Trades, Day Vigilante, and Vengeful Player. Keep these 3 players in mind for later.


I also propose that people announce something: whether or not you moved down and what you bid. Why would you do that and why would it matter? Because it gives us an idea of what range people bid in. Remember, we want to piece together who bid what because the mafia did not stack numbers on top of each other. I realize that the mafia can lie about this, but it really doesn't matter. If they lie about their bidding numbers, then the town has an opportunity to catch them in a lie based on who else bid that number. If someone moved down, they are placed in a group with the people around them. When you find a mafia in that group, it increases the level of trust with the people around you.

With this in mind, I would like to announce that I moved down. I bid [6] [1] thinking that the mafia might try for consecutive numbers starting between 2 and 4. That would mean that they would end between 6 and 8. I'm almost positive I overlapped with one of the mafia. This means that we should also be looking very hard at:
10. sidesprang
12. JeeJee

I confirmed with Ace that this situation:
A - [3] [1]
B - [3] [1]
C - [5] [1]
D - [5] [2]
will result in:
A and B are ordered randomly, C, D. The second tie does not move you down a second time.
This means that anyone who moved down yet is still above me bid at least a 6. Everyone below me moved down AND bid at most a 6. If you bid between 3 and 5 and moved down, it is especially important that you speak up.


Why am I coming forward with this information right now and not after roles are selected? Because I want the town to deny the mafia the most powerful roles or at the very least control their use. We can't stop the mafia from taking roles to increase their KP, but we can still control who gets what role and try to keep the mafia away from the 3 most important ones: Inventor, Compulsive Vigilante, and Role Blocker. Why are these roles especially important? The first 2 provide the mafia with kill power EVERY NIGHT. The third one allows the mafia flexibility to get around this plan. Therefore, I want Bill Murray to take Inventor and L's replacement to take Compulsive Vigilante. Foolishness will take Roleblocker.

Bill Murray, you will be making meth bombs (if Ace allows it) or at least bulletproof vests for people every night. The day post will confirm that you followed these directions. This way you cannot give the mafia additional kill power.

L's replacement, the town will be directing your shots. We will vote during the day on your hit.

Foolishness, you will not be roleblocking anyone. If anyone claims to be roleblocked, we will immediately lynch you. Roleblocks are much stronger for the mafia than they are for the town. I would just as soon nobody get them.


tl;dr:
Look hard at these 5:
3. Foolishness
4. Korynne
5. Falcynn
10. sidesprang
12. JeeJee

Claim your numbers. Revealing this information does not hurt the town but does hurt the mafia.

Bill Murray, L's replacement, Foolishness: you have additional instructions. Read them.

Did anyone else interpret this post as "waaa I'm upset that I was outsmarted by all these people and ended up low on the draft list waaa"?

I indeed picked 1,1, meaning L picked 1,1 assuming BM isn't lying.

...followed a bit later by another post that does not sit well with me:

On May 02 2010 04:55 Foolishness wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 02 2010 04:25 Qatol wrote:
Lots of stuff to comment about:
On May 02 2010 03:04 Foolishness wrote:
Did anyone else interpret this post as "waaa I'm upset that I was outsmarted by all these people and ended up low on the draft list waaa"?

Thanks for the vote of confidence. You had better pick roleblocker.
On May 02 2010 03:50 DarthThienAn wrote:
On another note, are we following Qatol's plan for the first 3?

Is there a good argument why we shouldn't? I haven't seen one so far.

Let me just say, that I highly doubt you would have posted all this stuff if you had wound up 1-5 on the list. Why do you fail to incriminate yourself in your analysis of what the town should do?

Show nested quote +
On May 01 2010 14:09 Qatol wrote:

tl;dr:
Look hard at these 5:
3. Foolishness
4. Korynne
5. Falcynn
10. sidesprang
12. JeeJee

And it's funny that you're number 11 on the list. According to your analysis, you are just as suspicious as anyone on that list, yet you fail to say so.

And can you remind me why you picked 10-12 to "look hard at"? It seems arbitrary and a way to deflect attention off yourself (I may have missed it in your post if you already said so). And why do you neglect BM and L in this list? As far as we know, they both picked 1,1 with me. My guess is you're trying to butter them up so they listen to your plan. We all know how sensitive BM and L are; if you incriminated them they probably wouldn't listen to you at all (and it's kinda funny how BM doesn't want to listen to you anyways).

Korynne also seems off to me. He is clearly thinking about the roles a lot, yet makes repeated mistakes in his proposed "pro-town" plans. This could be a new player thing, or someone who is trying to seem active but not paying enough attention to "the other side's view".

Together with their number picks (which Foolishness describes as having "outsmarted" others - which implies strategy, not luck) I view them as very fishy.

These are first impressions. I am not going to pretend they are strong and will not argue with anyone just yet - don't bother. Onwards and upwards.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
May 03 2010 02:54 GMT
#283
##Vote johnnyspazz
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
May 03 2010 02:57 GMT
#285
mod killing spree?!? ride the lightning baby!
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
May 03 2010 14:36 GMT
#311
Scaramanga was just temp banned for 2 weeks by pachi.

That account was created on 2008-03-06 20:21:26 and had 5317 posts.

Reason: By Request


Riiight.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
May 03 2010 14:40 GMT
#312
Never mind - Scaramanga is not playing in this one, irrelevant ban.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
May 03 2010 21:44 GMT
#325
Bill, you won the draft. Use it.

Save the dissmissive tone, it does not become you. Even as a perceptions management tool. It' not earned and transparent.

Looking forward to your invention.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
May 04 2010 13:33 GMT
#367
2. Someone who claimed Vanilla is lying: Korynne, Opz or Falcynn

This possibility is pretty bothersome - we may learn less than advertised by lynching Sidersprang. That said, I would like to hear more from Qatol, he's sort of gone dormant after being very active early on.

I really wish Bill would have just made detective kits or something to that effect. Remember Zona's observation about town win rates when the DT is dead/alive. In this case the role-picked DT may not be sane... so a plain vanilla Dt would be hugely helpful. Nothing will give us clearer information right now.

Town circles CAN be effective IF there is decent information to provide some minimum amount of trust/information (ie - a detective). Also, town circles can easily be infiltrated with this set of rules and, in this case, they will take way too long to set-up. How exactly was the cell phone supposed to work anyway? Does the "other" person need one too or can you PM anyone? Some other way?
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
May 04 2010 13:36 GMT
#368
Oh, also - the DT kit can be made to only reveal alignment, not role, so it could not possibly harm the town if it fell into mafia hands. maybe there are better ideas out there, but as of now that's what I would do as an inventor.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
May 04 2010 14:08 GMT
#373
On May 04 2010 22:48 Radfield wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 04 2010 22:33 citi.zen wrote:
2. Someone who claimed Vanilla is lying: Korynne, Opz or Falcynn

This possibility is pretty bothersome - we may learn less than advertised by lynching Sidersprang. That said, I would like to hear more from Qatol, he's sort of gone dormant after being very active early on.



More importantly Citizen, Are you going to vote Sidesprang?

We learn a lot more with him than anyone else at the moment. If he flips green, we KNOW someone has lied and we have the likely candidates of ~opz~, Qatol and Falcynn.

Think about it though, Sidesprang is the perfect distance down to pick CopyCat. Not high enough to get a great role, and just high enough to beat out Qatol. The perfect spot to take that pick if you're mafia and have 4 slots.


Yup, at the end of the day some information is better than no information, so lynching him helps more than some other shot in the dark. Too early to have very strong red candidates anyway. Let's do it.

##Vote Sidesprang ##
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
May 04 2010 14:29 GMT
#377
On May 04 2010 23:19 Scamp wrote:
Personally, I'm wondering if there's a good reason not to lynch Foolishness right now.

Not a bad question - even if he is willing to play along I don't think we will be able to use his kills properly just yet, so he is probably helping the mafia. It would be a great defensive play, but in the end I'd rather try to get some extra info by lynching sidersprang I guess.

I would NOT use the day vigilante of sidersprang though. Lynch him and save the day vig hit. No need to rush into this and start killing people left and right on very little information.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
May 04 2010 14:45 GMT
#380
On May 04 2010 23:30 JeeJee wrote:
now that we know this..

# Bill Murray	inventor
# Foolishness comp vig
# Korynne VANILLA
# Falcynn VANILLA
# [NyC]HoBbes ROLE
# ~Opz~ VANILLA
# d3_crescentia MEDIC
# Caller VANILLA
# sidesprang ?
# Qatol VANILLA


let me add a piece of it as well
# JeeJee VANILLA

i didn't go for copycat so presumably we have some liars up in here
either that or hobbes is mafia
for the role that he is (or should be), he sure isn't doing shit with it.
then again neither is sidesprang so i'm at a loss here

so foolishness, who are you gonna hit tonight?

OK, so someone who declared vanilla lied and took the role you had chosen. I continue to like Korynne as a red, but Could be anyone really. Caller is not offering anything, as usual - I would be comfortable asking Foolishness to hit him.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
citi.zen
Profile Joined April 2009
2509 Posts
May 04 2010 14:47 GMT
#382
On May 04 2010 23:40 Radfield wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 04 2010 23:30 JeeJee wrote:
now that we know this..

# Bill Murray	inventor
# Foolishness comp vig
# Korynne VANILLA
# Falcynn VANILLA
# [NyC]HoBbes ROLE
# ~Opz~ VANILLA
# d3_crescentia MEDIC
# Caller VANILLA
# sidesprang ?
# Qatol VANILLA


let me add a piece of it as well
# JeeJee VANILLA

i didn't go for copycat so presumably we have some liars up in here
either that or hobbes is mafia
for the role that he is (or should be), he sure isn't doing shit with it.
then again neither is sidesprang so i'm at a loss here

so foolishness, who are you gonna hit tonight?



Hold on Jeejee, you're claiming VANILLA?? If so, what did you try to pick? Because if you didn't pick copycat, and it would be strange for you to go for CompVig or Inventor, then you must have picked Hobbes' role.

Despite my previous posts, I'm not in favor of outing all the roles. But this is too juicy because we can catch one of Jeejee or Hobbes in a lie possibly.

If Jeejee claims what he picked, and Hobbes reveals that he doesn't have that role, then one of them is lying, and we just found another mafia(or SK perhaps, either is good). And Jeejee if you claim to have picked Inventor or Compvig, I would find it highly suspicious, given all our plans of taking those two roles first, and you picking 11th.

So Jeejee, WHAT ROLE DID YOU TRY FOR??? and Hobbes, IS HE TELLING THE TRUTH???

We can find out some info here folks.

Or sidersprang took it and Qatol lied. Or another vanilla role claimant lied.
Aut viam inveniam, aut faciam.
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