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On February 16 2010 09:33 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 09:27 L wrote:
And that's why I wanted to kill Ace instead. I knew you'd use it as an excuse. Liar. You're clue analysis is WRONG. Just like I said it was. GG.
Excuse? I didn't pull the trigger on him, and I'm not going to first day pardon. Emp and I had a discussion in PMs regarding the game and it was pretty obvious he was innocent.
Here, i'll post them for you.
From: Empyrean [ Profile | Buddy ]
Subject: Re: hey bro
Date: 2/16/10 09:11
meh, I'll probably end up reading all pages sometime in the future when I have more time.
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Original Message:
:/ had you said something I would have ended up lynching Ace ez pz.
But at this point you're going to die. then probably cobbler.
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Original Message:
To be honest, I wouldn't even have voted if it weren't for your PM reminding me there was a mafia game going on. :/
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Original Message:
yo u town?
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On February 16 2010 09:38 Ace wrote:
So he convinced you he was innocent because he forgot to vote?
lol. Really you expect me to believe that? You're full of it. Give up L. You're clearly Mafia. Wrong on clue analysis, and "convinced" he's innocent because he said he forgot to vote if you didn't PM him. Right.
Its not him forgetting. Its his complete apathy. Green players are apathetic, red players generally shit bricks.
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On February 16 2010 09:42 Ace wrote:
I haven't eaten in 3 days.
Guess that's why you aren't suspicious of redtooth after voting him into mayor.
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On February 16 2010 09:50 Ace wrote:
My vote was on redtooth. He claimed Medic. Thats why I took it away. Then I thought about his motive for lying at that point in time and it really didn't matter because Ver wasn't here anyway. So me switching my vote back within a few minutes changed nothing. There's no suspicion there.
Maybe you should bother questioning the people that pushed him from Pardoner -> Mayor. Pardoner is more powerful than Mayor anyway.
Yeah, nothing suspicious about switching your vote twice 5 minutes before the vote ends.
Nothing.
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There's no point in straining yourself over analysis if we're going to have 6 kills and another set of clues ready tomorrow.
Or rather, given I have an assignment due on wednesday, seems smart to get it done now rather than later :o.
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On February 16 2010 10:18 Ace wrote:
Listen, for the last time my vote isn't suspicious.
I went from Redtooth -> L - > Redtooth in the span of a few minutes and anyone reading this thread knows I wasn't going to vote for L seriously.
How can you continue to question me but NOT look at the people that tipped over Redtooth in becoming Mayor? Come on, you can't say with a straight face I'm more suspect than yourself in that regard.
Oh, don't worry, they're being looked at too, but you so are you.
I'm not suspicious despite admitting that vote switching is suspicious.
The amount of double talk you vomit out on a per post basis is staggering.
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Lol, if incog wants to confirm this is what I sent him, he can, but this was my pm to him when he asked.
To: Incognito [ Profile | Buddy ]
Subject: Re: Day 1 mayor lynch
Date: 2/16/10 08:46
depends who becomes the pardoner, so no
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Original Message:
It looks like you will become mayor. Can I have a confirmation of your day 1 lynch victim?
Because I gained different amounts of information depending on if Ver or You sat in the pardoner position.
Oops, mistake on your part, redtooth. Ask incog if you want.
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On February 16 2010 13:18 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +Cheating includes (but is not limited to) the following and will get you banned from future games:
...
6. Posting any PM you receive from a host.
I had to counter post after he posted. I am innocent.
Also, please don't ask people to pardon people who haven't been picked as lynch targets :/.
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On February 17 2010 06:56 redtooth wrote:
eh there seems to be some confusion as to why i roleclaimed medic. yes it ended up being a bad move but it wasn't absolutely impulsive and there was some thought put into it. one of the main reasons is that i didn't want Ver to be voted in no matter what. i've talked about that enough so i'll move on. the second reason is that i was going to die tonight if i wasn't voted in and given elected protection. for some reason a lot of people still suspected me of being mafia so there was a high chance either mafia would take me out. that gets rid of a medic and that is never good for town.
third reason is people wanted Chezinu (roleclaimed DT but unconfirmed) to get into office so he would be protected. if Chezinu gets elected then he would live but there is a chance i would die. if i get into office i would live and Chezinu would live as well because i planned on protecting him.
also, to DTs: please refrain from thoughtlessly rolechecking non-important posters simply because you have a hunch that he is mafia. rolechecks are the only way to form town circles so use them wisely. also as the game progresses and the clues become better the other options (either combination of cluechecking) become stronger and stronger.
I keep getting this vibe that moreso than any two other players in the game that you and Ver are buddying up. His PMs, both of your posts and a host of other issues make me believe this.
While I'm pretty sure I wont' be hit tonight due to protection, I think this link is worth looking into if I end up dying.
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On February 17 2010 10:41 Ace wrote:love you too Vivi <3
You don't get a GvG championship cape because I didn't kill you, ergo breaking our deal.
(also, I don't have one  ).
So, 5 people died, none of them are mafia. That's bad for both mafia teams, as they're clearly bad at hitting each other, but its worse for us because we're getting hit for them being dumb. Then again, its more like, getting hit for us being dumb because they pretty much just accepted ver's "go rape list" and raped it.
I'm going to go read clues after I finish up this paper; maybe this time I can not fuck up like a champ.
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Incog, your clue pointing towards nemY was fantastically done.
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which means he bombed ver.
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I think incog made the clues easier this time, because I'm pretty sure i can name like 4 people with 80% certainty.
nemy
madnessman
mystlord
phrubaz
Pretty sure i can find more, but that's my quick first reading. I'm going to be pretty blunt and say please lynch me if I post before tomorrow because I really need to get this work done and without the threat of me dying I will likely come back :/
BRB 12 HOURS.
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Ok, lol. I am back.
First off: I may have missed the mark on Empyrean and Ace, but the amount of people sitting back when I asked everyone to brainstorm was incredible. I think I had a grand total of 1 person make a coherent argument against Ace, which I accepted as substantially convincing, and cobbler argued against Emp.
But to say that I accused Ace, Emp and 789 and only them on the basis of clues is flat out false. I admitted that Cynan might have been a good catch, and that Mystlord was a very good target. I also requested that Ver put bill murray on the do not protect list. There are others, but frankly the omission of Mystlord from the list of people I thought were guilty via clues is hilarious. I even had Ver add him to the list of people I suspected. If I'm guilty of being wrong, so be it, but don't assume all my targets flipped green, because more than half of the people i fingered day 1 are still alive.
On to today:
Why did I accuse the people I did 12 hours ago? Lol because they're fishy as fuck.
But lets talk about that after some preliminaries:
1) It seems readily apparent to some that there are two 'group's in the set of clues: the ridge team and the other team. I buy this theory for the simple fact that the ridge team has showed up twice and is identified as a discernible group. So i'm going to call them: Ridge Team and Meadow Team. Meadow Team is a shitty name, but frankly it kinda makes both teams feel like Pokemon editions, and that's cool in my book.
2) Incog is using a lot of herrings. Intentional, even. If that's the case, he's basing personas out of a consistent combination of profiles. A picture, a quote, whatever. If that's the case, then he's going to be strict regarding how he describes multiple element clues and potentially more liberal with single source clues. The Scythe/Spear difference should emblemize that.
Okay, with that in mind:
Lets look at der clues.
1) There are Six mafia members described. The bomb was the blocked on Ver or not set in the first place. The clues also seem to indicate that cobbler was hit once per team. There are a few conclusions which flow from this, most of them which are bad for us with respect to analysing why Ver was bombed if he was bombed. Prior cluesets normally involve the hatter blowing people the fuck up during the clues which didn't happen here, so my prediction about the bomb being blocked seems accurate and consistent.
Previous clues:
Moonlight rider's probably Cynan
Emp's blue light killer might be 789 or amber. I didn't originally think that amber came in a blue form, but wikipedia told me otherwise.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amber
If that's the case, I hate incog.
Today's clues:
The final paragraph, in my mind, points to nemY:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=nemY
The fact that things were discovered the next day fits his profile quote, while the uproar fits his picture perfectly. The connection between someone falling and a message inciting the town to rage also fits. I really want to see other possibilities for this one, because I think this is a really elegant clue.
White floating thing is either Phrujbaz or OhN.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=Phrujbaz
Pretty self evident. The fact that its a meadow and the fact that the guy gets a runny nose point me heavily towards the dandelion seeds over the sakura. Then again, I don't live in an area with cherry trees so I don't know how they work outside of anime.
The two guys arguing seem to be madnessman. This one is a bit weaker than my other connections, but I haven't found anything that explains the key points quite as well:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=madnessman
Basically there are two birds which are fundamentally opposed to each other, but more importantly, one of them is a completely fearless dick who does whatever he wants despite prohibitions to the contrary: hence guts. I don't really have anything that explains the pan, though.
And last but not least: Mystlord.
THERES A GUY ON A ROOF AGAIN, WHO'S STANDING IN FRONT OF A LIGHT, HE KILLS SOME PEOPLE. DERP.
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Yeah you're full of shit.
There's no conclusive link between the rooftop killer in the day 1 clues and the actual murder. The guy was just running away from the sounds and died.
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I'd be happy if that picture inspired people to post, because shit got REAL SLOW REAL FAST.
Its like people only feel like they can post when I'm away and thus more likely to overlook stupid shit they say.
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On February 18 2010 10:39 ~OpZ~ wrote:
You sound like Ace now...
We probably haven't even seen all the mafia yet, and how do you expect us to come up with new material. Everyones afraid you Lucas and Ver will put them on his almighty "list." I'm not exactly the best at clue interpretation either. I mean, hell all I did was suggest Shikyo and Xelin were mafia, but my assumption was obviously too stupid and weak that it just got labeled spam. Damn you Lucas, damn you!
I'm not putting anyone on a list unless there are clues pointing towards you or you're acting flagrantly stupid. I just want to be clear; I have the balls to call people out, but I need other people to have balls too. Why? Because I'm wrong sometimes. I don't have a 100% certainty in this game and its pretty obvious that no one else does.
If Lucas is going to put up a post and label it as spam, that's awesome for him; he isn't the entirety of the town, neither is Ver, neither am I.
As far as Shikyo and Xelin: Shikyo goes afk to the point of him missing DT checks during games, so I'm not surprised he's doing nothing if he's pretty much any role. Xelin I've never played with before.
Shikyo's profile is retarded hard to connect clues to; I can see very few clueable themes besides 'metal' and the confusion/chaos thing. Neither have really popped up in the clues.
XeliN actually is a decent fit for the clue I linked to madness man, but only because there are 2 men in the picture. Then again, that's all incog has really needed in the past to form a clue, so its possible he's the culprit there.
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On February 18 2010 10:43 flamewheel91 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2010 09:42 L wrote:
Yeah you're full of shit.
There's no conclusive link between the rooftop killer in the day 1 clues and the actual murder. The guy was just running away from the sounds and died. L, play nice 
Ok lol.
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So you put yourself on the medic protection list as a Vet and then claimed someone protected you when you should have been told you lost a night life.
So you're trying to pull medic prots and then lied to the town AND to someone else in PMs?
And so claiming this this far into the day is supposed to make you seem less fraudulent because you wanted, explicitly stated, the heat on you to die down?
Rofl.
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On February 18 2010 12:04 Ver wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2010 11:51 L wrote:
So you put yourself on the medic protection list as a Vet and then claimed someone protected you when you should have been told you lost a night life.
So you're trying to pull medic prots and then lied to the town AND to someone else in PMs?
And so claiming this this far into the day is supposed to make you seem less fraudulent because you wanted, explicitly stated, the heat on you to die down?
Rofl. I never claimed someone protected me. I simply said I was hit. It doesn't matter whether I appear less fradulent or not, I never have fears of looking suspicious when I am innocent (remember caller's mafiya? we had this exact same exchange). If nobody believes me then yeah this failed and I'll just keep doing analysis the best I can. But really in this scenario unless someone calls me a liar those actions you listed are irrelevant and can simply be reduced to bad play because I am basically a confirmed innocent at this point unless someone calls me a liar about taking a hit or protting me.
You're 100% right about you saying you took a hit and not having been protted. My bad.
Also the timing of your claim does enhance your credibility. Neither are factors I fully thought through. Need to rethink this situation out from both sides.
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EPT
