[WCS] Global Finals 2014 Day 1 - Page 430

Life

This was actually a weak year for Life compared to how he was doing before. He "only" got 1 premier tournament win this year in DreamHack Bucharest, while he got 3 last year (IEM New York, MLG Winter, Iron Squid 2), and 3 at the end of 2012 (GSL Blizzard Cup, MLG Fall, GSL Season 4). With only 50 more WCS Points than the #16 seed, Jaedong, and 325 more points than #17, Snute, he barely was able to qualify for the WCS Global Finals as the #14 seed. Too bad that puts him against Zest, probably the worst draw he could've gotten out of any of the players going to Blizzcon, and I think he agrees.


Chances January
(No WCS Points graphs for January since I wasn't saving the data back then)

Life is our first player that didn't need to play in the WCS Qualifiers this year, because he won his Challenger League bracket last year he was already qualified for season 1 of Code A. This allowed him to start with a bit higher chances than the others with ~ 27.3 %, while Snute started with ~ 19.7 %, and Zest with ~ 2.4 %.
Life started his WCS year on January 22nd, advancing from his Code A group by beating Paralyze, losing to Squirtle, and then beating Paralyze again, moving up to ~ 36 % Blizzcon Chances.

On January 31st, Life played in the group stages of ASUS ROG Winter, losing to Welmu, but then beating Kane, Solar, and Jaedong to advance for the playoffs (played February 1st). This brought his chances up to ~ 42.4 %.

Chances February
WCS Points February

On February 1st he played in the quarterfinals of ASUS ROG against his brutal nemesis San and lost 0-3, bringing his chances down to ~ 31.3 %. Maybe Zest is a better draw for Life than San, with his 10-0 record over Life, would've been?

On February 26th, in his Code S round of 32 group, he beat Yonghwa and Dark, and I also added the full year of WCS Simulations, putting Life at ~ 35.3 %, and a minimum of 500 WCS Points, and a median of 1400 WCS Points.

Chances March
WCS Points March

On March 5th, Life continued his strong Code S run by advancing from his round of 16 group, beating Roro, losing to sOs, and then beating Roro again, going up to ~ 50 % chances.

Life then went to the IEM World Championship on March 15th. He beat Rogue in the round of 16 3-1, and then lost to Taeja 1-3 in the quarterfinals, putting him at ~ 67.6 %.

March 21st Life beat Maru in the GSL quarterfinals 3-2, bringing him up to ~ 82.6 %.
Then on the 28th he lost to soO in the semifinals 3-4, going down to ~ 57.5 %, with a minimum WCS Points of 1550, and a median of 2050.

Chances April
WCS Points April

In April, Life only had Dreamhack Bucharest to play in.
On the 26th he advanced to the playoffs beating MoonBeam, Harstem, and Lilbow twice, losing only to Ryung, putting him at ~ 68.4 %.
On the 27th he beat Leenock in the round of 16 2-1, and StarDust in the quarterfinals 2-1, going up to ~ 83.2 %.
In the semifinals he beat Innovation 2-1, and in the finals he beat Impact 3-0, ending up at ~ 97.6 %, 2300 minimum WCS Points, and a median of 3075 WCS Points.

Chances May
WCS Points May

In May, Life only played in his GSL Code S round of 32 group, beating Rogue and Classic on the 9th, going up to ~ 98.9 %.

Chances June
WCS Points June

June 4th, Life lost his ro16 Code S group. In season 1 of Code A, he beat Paralyze twice to knock him out and take the Code S spot for himself, this time Paralyze got revenge beating him, then Life beat Rain, and then Paralyze beat Life again. This put Life at ~ 90 %, with a minimum WCS Points of ~ 90 %.
june 4 code s ro16 lost to paralyze, beat rain, lost to paralyze ~ 90 %, min points 2500, median 2875

June 20th to the 22nd was MLG Anaheim, where Life played in the open bracket.
On the 20th he beat Thorzain, and lost to DongRaeGu, ending up at ~ 86.8 %.
On the 21st he played in the losers' bracket, beatting Apocalypse, Choya, and Alicia, to go up to ~ 95.7 %.
On the 22nd he beat Illusion and Major, but then lost to Scarlett, ending up at ~ 93.3 % Blizzcon Chances, with 2625 minimum WCS Points and a 2900 median.

Chances July
WCS Points July

On July 7th I added Red Bull Atlanta, IEM Shenzhen, Gfinity G3, and the DreamHack Valencia player list, bringing Life down to ~ 80.74 %.

July 16th and 17th was IEM Shenzhen for Life.
On the 16th, in the open bracket, he beat Daisy, lost to Liquid HerO, and then beat Daisy again, ending at ~ 90.4 %.
The 17th was Life's ro16 group, where he lost to Jim, beat MMA, and then lost to Taeja, going down to ~ 83.9 %.

In Life's GSL Code A group for Season 3, he lost to Stats and Bunny on the 24th, ending up at ~ 74.6 % chances, a minimum WCS Points of 2750, and a median also at 2750.

Chances August
WCS Points August

At the end of August, Life had a good run at IEM Toronto from the 28th to the 31st.
Starting on the 28th in the "Dual Tournament" aka open bracket, Life beat Stardust, Revival, and Snute, going up to ~ 85.2 %.
On the 29th in his ro16 group, he beat Scarlett and then MC to go up to ~ 95.4 %.
Then he beat First in the quarterfinals with a 3-0 score to go up to ~ 99.4 %.
On the 31st he lost to Zest 1-3 in the semifinals, ending up at ~ 99 %, with a minimum of 3125 WCS Points. Was this match a preview of what is to come in the WCS Global Finals?

Chances September
WCS Points September

In September, Life had his last chance to earn WCS Points, DreamHack Stockholm. If he didn't get any points here then he would've ended up as #17, missing out on the Global Finals by 1 spot. DreamHack Stockholm was also an exceptionally hard DreamHack due to many players trying to get their last WCS Points in.
On the 26th Life beat Oz, lost to MMA, and beat Oz again in Group Stage 3 to advance to the playoffs, putting him at ~ 99.4 %, and setting his minimum WCS Points to the final value of 3250.
Then on the 27th he lost to CJ herO putting him at ~ 95.8 %. With no more chances to earn WCS Points, Life would have to leave his qualification in other players' hands. Luckily for Life, he wouldn't have to stress for long, thanks to Solar.

Later that same day, Solar was facing Jaedong in the round of 8. Here is what WCS Predictor said about this match for Life.
~ 48.45 % of the time
Solar wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro8
This would change Life's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 95.83 % to ~ 100 %

~ 51.55 % of the time
Jaedong wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro8
This would change Life's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 95.83 % to ~ 91.91 %

And Solar did win, 2-1 over Jaedong, and even went on to beat soO in the finals. If Jaedong had won this match then Life would've had to worry about players like Scarlett, ForGG, Pigbaby, HerO, and Bunny in WCS EU and AM. As an example -
~ 0.55 % of the time
Pigbaby gets 1st in WCS AM S3 Premier and
ForGG gets 1st in WCS EU S3 Premier and
Jaedong wins their next match in DreamHack Stockholm ro8
This would change Life's Blizzcon chances
from ~ 95.82 % to ~ 0 %

Of course we know now he would've qualified no matter what Jaedong had done, since the players that would've threatened him didn't win anyways.

Come back tomorrow for the next retrospective!

Here are the chances and WCS Points graphs in super-wide form for the full year.
Super Wide Overall Chances Graph http://i.imgur.com/wRvKw5d.png
Super Wide Overall WCS Points Graph http://i.imgur.com/1j4pXeq.png
And here's Life's page where you can zoom the graphs as you please http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=3