[WCS] Global Finals 2014 Day 1 - Page 196

On October 15 2014 01:55 Die4Ever wrote:
I'd like to share with you all, my retrospective analysis on Snute's year. This is the first of many to come.

Snute

This is the first of a series of retrospectives I will be doing for individual players for their whole year of WCS 2014.
Snute had a rough road through the WCS system and he almost made it a few times, this is probably the most complex retrospective out of anyone. Let's break it down by month.

Chances January
(No WCS Points graphs for January since I wasn't saving the data back then)

The first thing in January for Snute was the WCS EU qualifiers, and this did not go as smoothly for him as you would've expected.
In Europe Qualifier #1, Snute lost in the round of 32 2-1 to Goody, in Qualifier #2 he lost in the round of 16 2-1 to Harstem, and then in Qualifier #3 he lost to Romson in the round of 128 (this may have been a walkover, ESL doesn't show a score). During this time (Jan 6th-14th) Snute's Blizzcon Chances went from ~ 19.7 % down to ~ 11.1 %.
Snute then had to rely on the Ladder Wildcard Qualifier to make it, his last chance for the season, and he beat Verdi 2-1 in the final match to qualify. This (Jan 15th) brought his chances up to ~ 14.8 %.

Next for Snute was ASUS ROG Winter. In his round of 32 group he beat Harstem, lost to Dear, and then beat Harstem again to advance from the group, (Jan 31st) bringing his chances up to ~ 17.5 %.
In his round of 16 group he lost to ForGG, beat SortOf, and lost to San, (Jan 31st) bringing his chances down to ~ 11.4 %.


Chances February
WCS Points February

On February 5th he won his WCS Challenger match against uThermal 3-1, going up to ~ 13 %.
February 26th I added the full year of the WCS regionals to the simulation, bringing Snute's chances down slightly to ~ 12.4 %.


Chances March
WCS Points March

In March Snute played in WCS EU Premier Season 1. March 4th, he won his round of 32 group, beating HasuObs, losing to Mvp, then beating HasuObs again, bringing his chances up to ~ 20 %.
He continued through Premier League by topping his round of 16 group, beating Dayshi and jjakji, (March 26th) to bring his chances up to ~ 28.9 %.


Chances April
WCS Points April

Snute was busier in April, playing in 3 different tournaments.

April 11th he lost 3-1 to MMA in the WCS EU Quarterfinals, bringing his chances from ~ 24 % down to ~ 14 %.

On April 15th I added Copenhagen Games Spring and the 5 Placeholder tournaments, bringing his chances up to ~ 19.3 %.
April 18th he lost in Copenhagen Games in the round of 16 to Patience twice, beating Strintern in between, bringing his chances down to ~ 15.9%.

Then it was off to DreamHack Bucharest for him, where he advanced to the playoffs April 26th to bring his chances up to ~ 21 %.
On April 27th he beat HyuN in the ro16, going up to ~ 26.1 %, and then lost to Jaedong to go down to ~ 22 %, ending his DreamHack run in the quarterfinals.


Chances May
WCS Points May

May 15th Snute won his ro32 group in WCS EU Premier Season 2, beating Krr and Bling, to go from ~ 28.5 % up to ~ 33.5 % chances. Now he's at a minimum of 1250 WCS Points, and a median of 2000 WCS Points.

May 29th I added the player list for HomeStoryCup 9, bringing him up to ~ 33.4 %, and a median of 2300 WCS Points.
May 30th I added the DreamHack Summer player list, again bringing him up to ~ 51 %, and a median of 2500 WCS Points.


Chances June
WCS Points June

June was a tough month for Snute, going from ~ 52.5 % down to ~ 10.2 % over the course of the month.

Starting with HomeStoryCup, Snute beats White-Ra and Stork in his ro32 group (June 5th) going up to ~ 54.7 %. Then in his ro16 group he beats Taeja, only to lose to MMA and the rematch to Taeja, (June 7th) getting knocked down to ~ 39.1 %.

In WCS EU Premier, Snute loses his ro16 group to ForGG and Harstem, (June 9th) going down to ~ 30 %.

Then he takes a surprisingly large blow as San and StarDust secure their spots in WCS EU Premier Season 3, with Snute's median WCS Points dropping from 2075 down to 1875, (June 11th) going down to ~ 16.8 %.

His bad luck streak continues in DreamHack Summer as he loses his ro32 group to jjakji and HerO, (June 15th) going down to ~ 15.9 %, with his minimum still WCS Points at 1250 since May 15th.


Chances July

July 7th I added Red Bull Atlanta, IEM Shenzhen, Gfinity G3, and the DreamHack Valencia player list, bringing Snute's chances up to ~ 23.9 %.

In IEM Shenzhen he won his ro16 group by beating Stork and TRUE, but losing to Innovation. (July 17th) This brought his chances up to ~ 27.9 %.
Then he lost in the quarterfinals to Jaedong 3-2, bringing him down to ~ 22.5 %, with a new minimum WCS Points of 1625, and a median of 2325.


Chances August
WCS Points August

August was Snute's busiest month with Gfinity, WCS EU, Red Bull Detroit, and IEM Toronto.

In Gfinity he beat Grubby and jjakji in the ro12 group, and then MMA 2-1 in the quarterfinals, (Aug 3rd) to bring his chances up to ~ 25.2 %. But then he lost to his teammate Bunny in the semifinals 3-1, sending Snute back down to ~ 23.9 %.

August 19th, Snute lost his WCS EU Premier Season 3 round of 32 group, first beating Patience but then losing to Miniraser and StarDust, sending his chances down to ~ 17.9 %.

In Red Bull Detroit on August 23rd, Snute beat CatZ in the ro16 to go up to ~ 26.1 %, and then lost to StarDust in the quarterfinals, putting him at ~ 12 %.

August 29th was the IEM Toronto Open Bracket, where Snute beat herO, lost to Life, and then beat herO again, together for a 4-2 score over herO in those insanely grueling games, bringing Snute to ~ 18.5 %.
Then Snute continued to impress in his ro16 group where he beat Masa and then sOs, going up to ~ 28.6 % now.
Against Flash in the quarterfinals, on August 30th, Snute put up a great fight but lost 2-3 during Flash's hottest streak yet in SC2, going down to ~ 14.7 %.

Snute finishes August with a minimum of 2550 WCS Points, and a median of 2550 WCS Points.


Chances September
WCS Points September

On September 1st, the DreamHack Moscow player list is set, with Snute confirmed it brings him up to ~ 37.6 %, and a median of 2675 WCS Points.
September 13th in DreamHack Moscow ro32 group, he beats MindelVK and HyuN to advance to the playoffs and go up to ~ 41 %.
September 14th, he beats LiveZerg in the ro16 and Daisy in the quarterfinals to go up to ~ 67.3 %. But then loses to eventual champion MMA, going down to ~ 47.2 %.

At this point, Snute is at a minimum of 2925 WCS Points, and a median of 3050, however he does not manage to win any more points for the rest of this year.

September 14th, Red Bull still has not yet announced anything regarding WCS Points for Washington, so to be safe I change it to only have a 50% chance to give points, this brings Snute up to ~ 75.1 % because sOs could pass him if it does give points.
September 15th, it is said that Red Bull Washington will not be giving WCS Points, this change brings Snute up to ~ 80.7 % Blizzcon chances, the highest chances he got in the year.
September 16th, the WCS Points for Red Bull Washington are announced, giving sOs the chance to pass Snute again, bringing Snute's chances down to ~ 69.5 %.

September 17th, in the GSL quarterfinals, Cure beats Solar and Innovation beats DongRaeGu, Solar getting knocked out helps Snute slightly more than Innovation winning hurt him, Snute's chances are now at the highest legitimate point in the year at ~ 70.8 %.

On September 18th the DreamHack Stockholm player list is set, this incredibly strong list of players coming for their last chance at Blizzcon brings Snute's chances down to ~ 53.5 %.

In Red Bull Washington, sOs loses on September 20th, bringing Snute back up to ~ 63 %.

September 23rd, MMA wins his WCS EU Premier ro16 group and brings Snute down to ~ 58 %.
In the GSL semifinals, soO beats Zest 4-3 after being down 1-3, bringing Snute's chances further down to ~ 46.9 % on September 24th.

On September 26th, Snute loses in his DreamHack Stockholm ro32 group after beating Solar, losing to jjakji and Solar in the rematch, going down to ~ 11.7 %.

Right now Snute has no more chances to gain WCS Points and is stuck at 2925 points. His only chance is to hope that no one passed him. If Pigbaby makes the finals of WCS AM, Snute is out, if any of ForGG/HerO/Innovation/Bunny/Scarlett/Golden/Heart wins their WCS region, Snute is out.

October 4th Innovation wins the GSL 4-2 over soO, knocking Snute out of the running.

If Innovation had not won the GSL, with MMA winning WCS EU and Bomber winning WCS AM, Snute would've made it as the #16 seed facing Bomber in the first round of the WCS Global Finals.
If Snute had gotten 4th place in DreamHack Stockholm, even with Innovation winning GSL, then he would've been the #14 seed facing Zest.


Come back tomorrow for the next retrospective! It will probably be shorter and simpler than this one since Snute had a very crazy year lol.

Here are the chances and WCS Points graphs in super-wide for for the full year.
Wide graph of Snute's chances throughout the year http://i.imgur.com/2fPxVma.png
Wide graph of Snute's WCS Points throughout the year http://i.imgur.com/EjKsRIU.png
And here is Snute's page with those same graphs where you can click and drag to zoom http://sc2.4ever.tv/?page=player&player_id=111