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[ASL16] Ro24 Preview Pt1: Old Friends

Forum Index > BW General
13 CommentsPost a Reply

[ASL16] Ro24 Preview Pt1: Old Friends

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
Graphics byv1
August 14th, 2023 03:27 GMT
ASL11 Main Image
We're finally here ASL Season 16 is upon us, boasting a very strong lineup this season featuring a lot of old faces we have not seen in some time. The Ro24 has always been none for its surprises for its volatile nature, will these old names manage to make it past? Or will getting back on the grind prove to be too much for them.


Group A Preview

Controlled Chaos


(P)Mini - (T)Leta - (Z)Soma - (T)Mong


Something funny about Mini being in Group A, one must wonder if its a great joke played on us by Afreeca, just to go through some ASL history here, Mini for the start of his tournament run has been in Group A of the Ro24 for the last 3 seasons, and the two seasons before that when he was seeded into the Ro16, he was in Group A there too. Afreeca truly believes you can’t start a round in this tournament without Mini.

Coincidences aside, Mini has been a major proleague workhorse whos on the lineup almost everyday, he should have a lot of confidence in this season’s map pool, assuming the Group A jinx(maybe some would just attribute it to Ro24 being Bo1s) doesn’t factor into it, he should take the group with ease especially with his first opponent being Leta.

Leta makes his first ASL appearance since ASL 12 and that about sums up any expectations people can have of him, which while not a lot, some of his fans can still hold out hope that anything can happen in a Bo1.

Mong also falls in the same category of Leta, last season he didn’t manage to make much of an impression falling swiftly 0-2 in the Ro24, at the very least he can beat leta for season points to improve his tier standing giving him a more favourable group next time.

Finally bringing us to soma, inconsistent and momentum based player that he is in the ASL. When he does well he really does well amd in a lot of ways he is very much the zerg mini. Of course it doesn’t obviously show in his face how tilted he can get. A volatile player in the most volatile part of the tournament is bound to be a cause for concern, however he also one of the best performing zergs in the Major Proleague with a very good 58.3% winrate in Major Proleague(Link) so he should be able to at the very least beat Leta and Mong without issue if not Mini.

(P)Mini and (Z)Soma to Advance to the Ro16!

Group B Preview

A Great Voyage


(Z)Soulkey - (Z)Calm - (P)Rain - (T)Sea


I don’t know about you but the names involved in this group make me think of a nautical adventure involving a supernatural key to the soul, but that piece of fiction would still be less interesting that what we have going on in this group.

Soulkey definitely hit the jackpot here by somehow ending up in a group of semi active competitors or at the very least Soulkey is the only one in the group who’s on the proper major proleague grind with top 15 results, for that reason he remains most likely to take the group and move on, even if not first.

Calm’s last ASL was season 8 and still not the biggest gap in this group, Calm did gain a lot of popularity during Starcraft University events, but a variety streamer event doesn’t really instil a lot of confidence in him getting out.

Rain is a true wildcard, I can firmly believe that even after his hiatus after making the finals of ASL13 that he can still be the best player in the group, he is genuinely that good at starcraft, I give soulkey the edge for just being more overall active but honestly not by much, the only thing he can do to surprise me is to actually not make it out of the group especially with the makeup of it.

And finally we get the return of Sea, who was last seen in the ASL during season 6, 10 seasons! 5 whole years since we’ve last seen Sea even make it to the Ro24, though a lot of it could be attributed to not trying as Sea is a very popular streamer and many assumed has long since given up any interest in competing, Sea has always remained a very popular player, he’s been an ASL finalist too way back in season 2, while I doubt he’ll make it past this group, I won’t be surprised if this is the highest viewed group on Afreeca for Ro24.

(P)Rain and (Z)Soulkey To Advance to the Ro16!

Group A Preview

Stage Fright


(P)Snow - (Z)Killer - (T)Royal - (P)Shuttle


Snow and RoyaL being in the same group in the Ro24 while both are arguably Tier 1 players who should be in separate groups shows just how stacked this season is looking and serves as a preview for what is to be expected.

Snow is one of the best protoss players out there, he’s also one of the most frustrating players to root for, right now he stands at the top of the Major Proleague standings with a near 70% winrate, multiple proleague days MVP and has a few all kills, now I have very little doubt he’ll lose a game in this group let alone get eliminated, but his history in the tournament makes it very hard to ignore to possibility.

For now though he should be able to overcome his group.

Killer is back in the ASL since season 10, he’s been semi-active overall, hopefully he shows some good games but it seems like he’s going to have a quick exit in the tournament as far as the rest of this group goes.

RoyaL despite winning ASL14 a mere 10 months ago still doesn’t have enough ASL points to be considered Tier 1, which is how he landed in this group, that the second best performing Terran in the Major Proleague, and on a good day one of the best players in the world still hasn’t made enough consistent deep runs in the ASL, this is the season to remedy that and this group is as good a start as any.

Shuttle is an enigma, probably one of worst person your favourite can have in his group for his sheer ability to just win those Bo1 games when it matters. Known for tryharding the daily Major Proleague games without dropping down to K-League, he currently stands at one of the lowest(37.8% As of August 1st) winrates among his peers but he’s won with worse rates in the ASL.

This is Snow and RoyaL’s group for sure but this has the most probability for disruption.

(P)Snow and (T)Royal to Advance to the Ro16!



Writers: BLinD-RawR
Graphics: v1
Editors: BLinD-RawR

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TL+ Member
Muff2n
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
United Kingdom250 Posts
August 14 2023 07:03 GMT
#2
Great preview, and v sensible predictions. Let's go Mini.
Peeano
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Netherlands4980 Posts
August 14 2023 08:08 GMT
#3
I have some (weird) hope in Leta, but I didn't vote on him. Since my boy Shine (aka Bag-of-Builds) didn't make it in, I will be rooting for Leta instead. Also if Sea fans only watch if he's playing idc too much about having him advance, then again... He might surprise us?

Nostalgia is strong drug and Leta and Sea would have been group favourites back when my muscles wouldn't ache yet
Thinking back of Leta's prime makes me wonder: Whatever happened to (T)TurN?
FBH #1!
Teffik
Profile Joined July 2015
8 Posts
August 14 2023 09:53 GMT
#4
thanks for the review
M3t4PhYzX
Profile Joined March 2019
Poland4173 Posts
August 14 2023 10:30 GMT
#5
banger preview, as always

cheers!
odi profanum vulgus et arceo
Simplistik
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
2003 Posts
August 14 2023 15:25 GMT
#6
Solid predictions. Very hard to see any other outcome for Group A. I expect Soulkey will make it easily, the others are harder to judge, but Rain is usually good when he plays... For group C again, hard to see any other outcome. Killer and Shuttle haven't really done anything in quite a long while.
Dear BW Gods, I know it's not autumn (in the Northern hemisphere), but please have mercy on Protoss.
ScrappyRabbit
Profile Joined March 2016
200 Posts
August 14 2023 16:02 GMT
#7
So sorry to be the guy asking this, but where is Flash? Isn't his military service done? Even with Brood War being nowhere near what it used to be, winning ASL as random would still maybe be the most epic gaming accomplishment ever.
Simplistik
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
2003 Posts
August 14 2023 18:34 GMT
#8
Don't know where I read/heard, but supposedly Flash has some health troubles.
Dear BW Gods, I know it's not autumn (in the Northern hemisphere), but please have mercy on Protoss.
QOGQOG
Profile Joined July 2019
834 Posts
Last Edited: 2023-08-14 21:07:26
August 14 2023 21:07 GMT
#9
On August 15 2023 01:02 ScrappyRabbit wrote:
So sorry to be the guy asking this, but where is Flash? Isn't his military service done? Even with Brood War being nowhere near what it used to be, winning ASL as random would still maybe be the most epic gaming accomplishment ever.

According to Action (I believe) Flash had some health issues that prevented him from practicing so he didn't bother to try to qualify.

I'd be surprised if he tried Random again. Not only is he rusty, but there are a lot of good Zergs around.
sugarmuffinpuff
Profile Joined October 2014
Canada38 Posts
August 14 2023 23:10 GMT
#10
Do we know if fantasy tried to qualify for this? I've heard he's ranked pretty high on the ladder right now.
Malongo
Profile Blog Joined November 2005
Chile3472 Posts
August 15 2023 02:34 GMT
#11
Rain has looked terrible from what I've watched on proleague games, Calm is just out of place. Sea and Soulkey in group B. Snow-Royal on group C but miniDong may have a chance if Royal gets first.
Help me! im still improving my English. An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind. M. G.
Simplistik
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
2003 Posts
August 15 2023 07:01 GMT
#12
On August 15 2023 08:10 sugarmuffinpuff wrote:
Do we know if fantasy tried to qualify for this? I've heard he's ranked pretty high on the ladder right now.

He didn't participate as far as I know. You can read some of his recent thoughts here.
Dear BW Gods, I know it's not autumn (in the Northern hemisphere), but please have mercy on Protoss.
VGhost
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States3613 Posts
August 18 2023 22:30 GMT
#13
Lots of good names but yeah, I'd agree with the preview that these groups look pretty one-sided.

Here's hoping for surprises and at least some great games.
#4427 || I am not going to scan a ferret.
BLinD-RawR
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
ALLEYCAT BLUES50110 Posts
August 19 2023 01:48 GMT
#14
On August 19 2023 07:30 VGhost wrote:
Lots of good names but yeah, I'd agree with the preview that these groups look pretty one-sided.

Here's hoping for surprises and at least some great games.


+ Show Spoiler +
oh boy
Brood War EICWoo Jung Ho, never forget.| Twitter: @BLinDRawR
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