With a shocking result coming out of the groups in the first half of the Ro16 we are left wondering if that was the last of it or are more left to come in the latter half of the Ro16.

We conclude the Ro16 this week with a Terran's stand against a Zergtastic Group C and the other Group of Death Group D.

This is a group that features 3 fan favourite Zergs hero, Soulkey and Jaedong all of whom have different play styles that more or less make up the entirety of how to play Zerg at the topmost level, JyJ has a lot to prove in this group, not saying to count him out because he’s definitely someone who can advance, first even.

Its always good when a player has only one matchup to prepare for in a group setting and JyJ has set himself up to take advantage of his position, since the start of the year he’s had a TvZ winrate of 58% in sponmatches, to push his momentum further, since the Ro16 group selection, he has not lost a single set in TvZ online, including wins over both hero and Soulkey, the opening match against hero is very important for sure, while he may be confident in beating them all in a Bo3, he would much rather be in a position where he doesn’t need to face all 3 of them and getting hero over with in a Bo1 just works better for him, likely facing Jaedong in the winner’s game, theres very little data for how this match will go, but its likely that the more active JyJ could take down the rusty recently returned Jaedong, if that isn’t the case then a rematch with hero is preferable, avoiding Soulkey is for the best.

hero earned his seed making the Ro4 last season losing to Rush in an almost one sided series, but he did beat ZerO in a similarly one sided series to earn himself the 3rd place spot hence why he gets to be seeded into Group C, but it also tells that hero is no joke in ZvZ holding a 57.5% winrate, but before we get to his ZvZ we need to talk about his ZvT, sitting at a 59% winrate with his biggest practice partners being Sharp, Royal, Rush and Light all of whom(except sharp) have excellent TvZ, JyJ may have a recent winning streak against hero, but preparation is key and hero is one of the best when it comes to match prep and you can see how tailored his builds tend to be in matches. Now once he gets past JyJ, win or lose he now has to deal with ZvZ, which hero is more than happy to take on both Soulkey and Jaedong both of whom he has a solid winrate against personally, hero is an easy pick for first if not second place.

Jaedong gets to start this group off with a rematch of his last match in the ASL so far the winner’s game of their Ro24 group against Soulkey, which served as a quick reminder that good ol JvZ is alive and well, or I guess it might be better to preface that by saying beating Soulkey shouldn’t be an indicator for that, however if he beats hero who has a winning record against Jaedong we can definitely say that JvZ is alive. For the opening game though, I see a similar result to their Ro24 game which brings us to the winner’s game, Jaedong hasn’t really played against JyJ at all, aside from one game, it would be harder to predict but overall I’d give the advantage to JyJ there as Jaedong has a low ZvT winrate of 44%. Jaedong will want to rely on JvZ if he wants to get out of the group.

Soulkey is really in a tough spot, I’m not even sure if he’ll get to have a match against JyJ, his best path to get out of the group is to beat Jaedong in the opening game and face and beat JyJ in the winner’s match, that way he gets to keep ZvZ count to just one match, because otherwise, its unlikely that he’ll beat both Jaedong and hero, especially if it comes down to a Bo3 setting.

If I have to go with my head, I’d say JyJ and hero based on research, my heart says Jaedong advances first and hero second.

JyJ and hero to Advance to the Ro8!

Group D is such a well-rounded group that the hype speaks for itself. Let’s start with the king (or shall I say Queen?) of this group. Queen is such a monster in the ASL. Since he returned to the ASL in Season 9, Queen has never finished lower than fourth place. After winning back-to-back seasons, Queen became a permanent fixture in the bracket stage of this Starleague. Royalty continues in this group with SKT Bash Brothers Bisu andBest. The remaining player Soma appeared as a pauper in ASL Season 8, but soon showed us he was a prince to be feared in this league.

The first match showcases Queen versus Bisu on Vermeer. This is a dangerous map to play a best of one on versus Bisu. It is a long-standing fact that if Bisu can take his third base without economic damage, that he is heavily favored to win that game. This map offers a very accessible third base for Protoss that also includes a gas at the base. Queen is one of the players that isn’t willing to throw his PvZ series into an early game all-in. Without this early game pressure, Bisu is in a prime position to take enough of the map that he will be unstoppable force against Queen and take the first series.

The second match, Best verus Soma, offers a very different scenario on the map Vermeer. While the other 3 players in the group have just above a 50% PvZ winrate in Spon matches, Best is winning almost 60% of his non-mirror games and is a dominant force online. As history shows, Best is usually in peak choke form in the ASL the better he is performing online. Adding to that, Vermeer is a very scary lurker containment map. Some has some of the greatest control when it comes to suffocating the Protoss of resources utilizing his lurkers. Unlike Bisu, obtaining a third base won’t give Best the same advantage because Soma will be happily taking 5 other bases while giving Best no room to expand further. Soma will win and face Bisu in the winner’s match.

Soma’s breakout moment came from ASL Season 9 when he defeated Bisu 3-2. This victory would begin a domination against Protoss unlike any other. Since season 8, Soma has only lost a series to a single Protoss player (Best). The defining difference between Soma versus Bisu in season 8 and now, is a very diverse and Protoss friendly map pool. Pair that with Bisu’s online head-to-head winrate versus Soma is in Bisu’s favor, winning 57% of his games. If you put these two players inside the Deep Mind AI system and had them play out this best of 3 over and over, after a thousand series it’d still show each player winning close to 50% of the time. With one of the toughest series to call in this round of 16, Bisu will advance using dark templars in ways that will give Soma nightmares.

Dropping down to the loser’s ground, Queen has to fight Best in the pit. The last time these two players met was in Season 10. Queen won very easily with a result of 3-0 in the quarterfinals. Best fans saw him advance to the round of 8 just 3 seasons ago. The map eclipse might still be available as a winning tool for Best. However, all maps for Best lead to losses against the most consistent Zerg in ASL. Best loses here and is sent back to the qualifiers.

Soma versus Queen. Queen versus Soma... Something seems oddly familiar about this. Right! Just 3 seasons ago Queen took home his second consecutive gold medal defeating Soma in one of the most fierce ZvZ finals of all time. The margin was razor-thin, and Queen came out with a 4-3 final score. When looking at spon matches, both Queen and Soma have made it a priority to play non-mirror matches. So much so, that each player has at least a hundred more played matches in each non-mirror match compared to ZvZs. In the ZvZs they have played, Queen is winning just 1% more of his games (54% wins) than Soma. Soma holds the edge in head-to-head matches with a score of 1-0. All this data put together and shoved into deep mind would be like sending the program into an infinite loop never deciding which player was better. This final prediction comes down to a history of clutch from Queen in this matchup and the ASL. Queen will win and advance to the bracket stage for his fifth time in a row tie-ing Flash’s record of consecutive bracket qualifications.

Bisu and Queen Advance to the Ro8!

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Writers: BLinD-RawR, BisuDagger
Graphics: v1
Editors: BLinD-RawR