After some excellent games last week, we head into the final week of the Ro24! We had a few small surprises last week but no major upsets like the first two groups, so the last week is up in the air!

Ringing Bloom, while fairly standard in layout, has posed some problems for players who haven't quite mapped out all of the potential openings and attack pathways, but Eclipse seems to be the far harder hurdle to overcome. From late DTs to odd hydra timings, Eclipse has delivered weird and wonky games that have upended the predictions. Will that trend continue?

Show Of Experience

I actually like this group a lot, and if you've been keeping up with ASL over the last few seasons, this group might look eerily familiar. In Season 8 during nOOB's debut performance, he was in a Ro24 group with both Larva and Rush, so in a way this is rematch of sorts. nOOB's surprise win over Mong to knock the ASL veteran out of the tournament made some splashes, but his otherwise straightforward macro style didn't stand out enough to make him impressive, so we'll see if two seasons of practice have elevated his play.


Larva vs nOOB

These two played the opening match in their group the last time they met too, so we have a bit of rematch. Previously on Multiverse, Larva was able to shut down the middle of the map and play his famous turtle style to completely overwhelm the poor amateur Protoss player, but playing on a more standard map like Ringing Bloom might give nOOB more of an opportunity to fall back on his somewhat aggressive macro play with off-kilter builds. There isn't much to go off when trying to determine nOOB's level of play; he began tearing up the biweekly Have At You tournaments organized by Schamtoo in late 2018 before briefly peaking in ASL8 the following year. The only notable appearances in solo tournaments this year have been in the CasterMuse Narak Starleague, where he didn't really preform well.

On the other hand, Larva seems to finally be back from his two year slump following his killer performance in ASL4. While he has been involved in several ASLs since and always been a contender, he fell from a Top 5 player to a Ro24 regular, so it's really nice to see him back in action and playing more confidently. He's been fairly active in the month of September (though not as much as he has in the past), and as of writing, he's amassed 76 total spon matches with a solid 51% win rate with most of his games played against Protoss and Terran.

I give Larva the edge here, especially if it goes to a scrappy game due to an unorthodox build from nOOB.


Stork vs Rush

Oh my god, I can't wait to watch this one. Rush has very slowly worked his way from Ro24 dropout to legitimate opponent in the last few years off the back of his new and improved PvT play. He can't rely on his monster TvT in this group, but he does have a respectable 56% winrate vs Protoss in spon matches to fall back on.

At the same time, Stork's PvT has begun climbing back towards its peak again in the age of carriers. With 41 spon matches in September, his PvT sits at 59%, and I feel really confident about his chances against Rush. Ringing Bloom isn't spectacular for carriers from what we've seen so far, but Stork's ability to control large armies and storm tanks coupled with his rather large build repatoire means he can still take a macro game. Rush will have to rely on some of the more aggressive 1-1-1 builds or vulture openings to keep the pressure on Stork and prevent him from confortably getting to macro mode.

This will be a good match however it goes, but I predict Stork to take the win here.


The winners match will also be a good one to watch, especially considering how good Larva's ZvP is in comparison to Stork's PvZ. If both players are playing at their best, I would expect Larva to win, but you can't always count on that in a live setting. My (fangirl) gut says to go for Stork. The last two matches are likely to result in either Larva or Rush advancing, but nOOB could produce another upset with a clever build. Statistics and predictions don't really matter anymore (as we've already seen in this season), but all things considered, Rush should win the losers match and then go on to crush Larva on Polypoid in the final match.

All in all, this is a great group with games that could go any way at the slightest hint of weakness. I look forward to this group and seeing how they set the tone for the Ro16!

Stork and Rush advance to the Ro16!

Dragon Slayers
The last group of the Ro24 features two prominent names in Sharp and Action, the return of free of the Six Dragons and the ASL debut of beast, who attracted attention recently with his great performance in the ASTL.

Sharp will face beast in the opening match of the group on Ringing Bloom. After a peak in form, finishing second in KSL season 2, he is now in the shadow of Light in the Terran pecking order, but he’s still a formidable opponent with his smart tactics and considerable experience. TvZ, however, has historically been his worst matchup and his online results since August reflect that with a meager 42% win rate and a losing record against virtually all top Zerg players. He tends to produce notoriously scrappy games, showcased most prominently in his 2-3 loss against Action in ASL8. An epic win against hero in the KCM race survival did demonstrate he’s not a pushover, but he quickly crumbled against his next Zerg opponent that week as larva destroyed him with early aggression.

Beast, on the other hand, is not in much better shape. His record in sponsored matches is not too impressive - a 48.9% since August. Most of his games have been against lesser opponents, too; all in all, stats tell a bleak tale, except for a 2-1 record against his opponent on Tuesday. He did perform admirably in the ASTL, though, winning all of his matches... but none were against Terran. Map stats also favor Sharp so far (56.6%), albeit from a relatively small sample size.

All in all, Sharp appears to be the favourite here, even largely because of his offline experience. This season doesn’t lack surprises so far, true, and a bo1 is notoriously unpredictable, but from what I’ve seen, I’d put my money on Sharp. If he manages to keep himself safe from his adversary’s aggression or if the game goes the usual scrappy way, I'd say he's the favourite, although not by a wide margin.

Action vs free is another matter, though. The wily Zerg is one of the strongest ZvPers in the current age, both offline and online, the latter evidenced by a very respectable 64.9% sponmatch win rate. On offense and defence, in early game or when the macro machines get going, with specialized cunning builds or in a stock-standard match, he’s extremely dangerous and is one of the worst opponents for a Protoss player - even a Dragon - on his return to the premier tournament scene.

All that notwithstanding, free is not to be underestimated. Rusty as he might still be, PvZ has historically been a strong suit of his. Online he's managed to just keep his head above the water with a 50% record in a somewhat Zerg-dominated meta. As Action is a favourite sponmatch opponent for pretty much everyone, the two have faced each other a total of 14 times and Action is in the lead with a 8-6 score - showing that while free is at a disadvantage, he’s not a complete outsider.

Still, I’d feel safe betting on Action. Both statistics and current shape are heavily in his favour and even though Ringing Bloom seems to give an edge to Protoss so far with a 55.8% win rate, this is not by any means insurmountable. Surprises can occur, especially against a member of the Six Dragons, but free still has not regained his shape - and one needs every tiny advantage he can get against Action.

Assuming both above predictions are correct, Action is going to contend with Sharp for the top spot of the group. Everything considering Sharp’s TvZ stands true in this match. Add in his dismal record against his opponent online (11-30) and Action’s penchant to tailor builds based on specific weaknesses, a win for the Terran yogi is unlikely here. Even with an apparent map disadvantage stats-wise, betting on Action to qualify first is reasonably safe.

The losers’ match would pit beast versus free. Taking into account the disparity in experience and free’s historically strong PvZ, the veteran Protoss is at a definite advantage here. The two met in the Seoul qualifiers and free defeated beast handily with a 2-0 score. Online the picture is even grimmer for the Zerg player as he lost all four games they played. Now, beast did defeat Bisu 2-0 to qualify for the ASL, but considering Bisu’s very underwhelming offline performance, I wouldn’t read too much into it. I expect free to win.

Should the above prove to be true, a final match between Sharp and free would take place on Polypoid. In stark contrast to his TvZ, Sharp’s TvP is top-notch - evidenced by a very respectable 62.5% sponmatch win rate and a history of convincing displays in premier touraments. His advantage is compounded by free’s negative win rate versus Terran, sitting at 47.8% since August and the fact that he's still a bit rusty. Unless Sharp underperforms, I expect a solid win for him.

Action and Sharp qualify for the Ro16!