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ABCMart MSL Ro16 Previews

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]343[
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States10328 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-04-28 07:54:39
April 28 2011 07:19 GMT
#1
[image loading]
Thanks to disciple for the banner!


Since we're too busy (read: lazy [just kidding, actually busy]) to get the full MSL post out on time, here are a set of Ro16 previews I've written for you all before the first games start! We'll have the post out soon, I promise!*

The games are played in a split format: the first match of each Bo3 is played separately, and then they finish the series on a different day. The winners of the Ro16 will be reseeded in the Ro8 by KeSPA ranking, so we have yet another (cue groan) chance at FvJ finals!



Match A:

(Z)Hydra < Dante's Peak SE > (P)Stork
(Z)Hydra < Circuit Breaker > (P)Stork
(Z)Hydra < La Mancha > (P)Stork

Hydra ZvP:
Last 10: L W W L W W W W L W
Overall: 25-17 (59.52%)

Stork PvZ:
Last 10: W L L L L W W L W L
Overall: 113-88 (56.22%)

Head-to-head: Hydra 1-2 Stork


       Hydra vs. Stork, the first match of this MSL Ro16. The defending champion takes on the defending OSL runner-up in what should prove to be an exciting series. Though Hydra's beaten Bisu, he hasn't really proven he has what it takes to hang with top Protosses, with losses to Kal, Stork, and Stats this year. But on the flip side, those (plus a loss to Free that he avenged in the ace match) are his only losses to Protoss since this Proleague season began, leading to an impressive 14-4 record. On the other hand, Stork's old weakness against Zerg seems to be resurfacing mainly thanks to Zero, who seems to have his number. But a recent loss to Princess in Proleague has SBG fans worrying--will he have what it takes to defeat neo-EffOrt? Coupled with the Zerg-favored maps, Stork might have a hard time making it into the quarterfinals.

Prediction: Hydra 2-0 Stork





Match B:

(T)Mind < La Mancha > (T)Light
(T)Mind < Circuit Breaker > (T)Light
(T)Mind < Dante's Peak SE > (T)Light

Mind TvT:
Last 10: L W W L L L L L W W
60-53 (53.10%)

Light TvT:
Last 10: L L W W L W W W L W
Overall: 70-61 (53.44%)

Head-to-head: Mind 4-2 Light


       These two old veterans meet for the first time in the MSL. Mind has been on a tear recently, but most of his victims have been Protoss, not Terran. Granted, his losses have been to the best of the mirror-match bunch--Flash, Fantasy, HiyA, Really--but when I notice that Light has beaten Baby (once without cheese), FBH, and HiyA recently, I have to give the edge to Light. Light's even taken a game off Flash last December. Both have strong TvT players to practice with--Baby and Really--but after seeing Mind throw away his huge advantage against Flash on Aztec, I'd have to go with Light.

Prediction: Mind 1-2 Light




Match C:

(T)Leta < Dante's Peak SE > (Z)Neo.G_Soulkey
(T)Leta < Circuit Breaker > (Z)Neo.G_Soulkey
(T)Leta < La Mancha > (Z)Neo.G_Soulkey

Leta TvZ:
Last 10: L L W W W L W W W L
Overall: 60-40 (60.00%)

Soulkey ZvT:
Last 10: L L L W W L L W W W
Overall: 19-22 (46.34%)

Head-to-head: Leta 3-1 Soulkey


       This is probably the most intriguing matchup of the Round of 16: Soulkey's jaw-dropping, Queen-flaunting ZvT takes on Leta's solid-as-always TvZ. In fact, Soulkey took revenge for his defeat by Leta in MST with a dominating performance in the Proleague Round 5 opener. One thing we can be sure about: mech play by Leta will by met, and by the looks of it, probably crushed by Soulkey's broodlings and dropped ultralisks which so stylishly took out both the Crown Prince and Leta himself. But Leta is no slouch in TvZ, and perhaps he'll prepare a bionic build instead. Mech could be hard to play against Neo.G_Bonjwa, and though La Mancha is ridiculously T-favored, perhaps he will lead the revolution to counter the dominant late-game mech strategy. Stay tuned, folks, and here's to hoping Soulkey can show us how it's done!

Prediction: Leta 1-2 Soulkey





Match D:

(Z)Calm < Circuit Breaker > (Z)Hyuk
(Z)Calm < Monte Cristo > (Z)Hyuk
(Z)Calm < La Mancha > (Z)Hyuk

Calm ZvZ:
Last 10: L W L W L L W W L L
Overall: 74-60 (55.22%)

Hyuk ZvZ:
Last 10: L L L L L L L L L W
Overall: 23-32 (41.82%)

Head-to-head: Calm 2-1 Hyuk


       Hyuk was once really good at ZvZ. Not so much anymore, despite his win over Great to get into the Ro16. Calm, on the other hand, is not terrible, but since it's ZvZ, and since apparently all the SKT players think Hyuk is really good, expect Hyuk to take a game.

Prediction: Calm 2-1 Hyuk




Match E:

(Z)ZerO < Circuit Breaker > (Z)hero
(Z)ZerO < Monte Cristo > (Z)hero
(Z)ZerO < Dante's Peak SE > (Z)hero

Zero ZvZ:
Last 10: L L W W L L W L W L
Overall: 76-78 (49.35%)

hero ZvZ:
Last 10: L L W W L L W L W W
Overall: 18-18 (50.00%)

Head-to-head: Zero 1-1 hero


       Though hero defeated Zero with a build-order advantage and better multitask in their last Winners' League meeting, neither of these players are particularly good at the matchup. I hope Zero makes it through, though, since his potential to make a deep run is much better than hero's. This one could go either way; I'll just hope Zero wins two games fast so he doesn't have the opportunity to choke!

Prediction: Zero 2-0 hero





Match F:

(P)Grape < Circuit Breaker > (P)Horang2
(P)Grape < La Mancha > (P)Horang2
(P)Grape < Monte Cristo > (P)Horang2

Grape PvP:
Last 10: L L W W L W L W L W
Overall: 5-6 (45.45%)

Horang2 PvP:
Last 10: W W W L W L L W W W
Overall: 30-13 (69.77%)

Head-to-head: Grape 0-1 Horang2


       Grape is going to be the next big Protoss--calling it now! Unfortunately, his first series game in a proper individual league will be against PvP extraordinaire Horang2. While the shine has come off Horang2's PvP a bit, it still remains among the strongest in the scene, as exhibited in his come-from-behind win against Grape in Winners' League this year. Horang2 has a deep understanding of the matchup and good micro, so he should be able to take this series.

Prediction: Grape 0-2 Horang2





Match G:
(Z)Jaedong < Dante's Peak SE > (T)Reality
(Z)Jaedong < Monte Cristo > (T)Reality
(Z)Jaedong < Circuit Breaker > (T)Reality

Jaedong ZvT:
Last 10: W L L W W L W W W W
Overall: 156-93 (62.65%)

Reality TvZ:
Last 10: L L L W L L L L L W
Overall: 2-8 (20.00%)

Head-to-head: Jaedong 1-0 Reality


       Reality is another Khan player on the rise, but he's even unluckier than Grape--he gets Donged. Seriously, after JD's domination of both Sea and Flash, how can anyone reasonably expect Reality to even take a game? Good luck to the rookie; he'll need it.

Prediction: Jaedong 2-0 Reality





Match H:
(T)Really < Dante's Peak SE > (T)Flash
(T)Really < Circuit Breaker > (T)Flash
(T)Really < La Mancha > (T)Flash

Really TvT:
Last 10: W W W L L W L W W L
Overall: 43-48 (47.25%)

Flash TvT:
Last 10: W W W W W W W W W L
Overall: 142-48 (74.74%)

Head-to-head: Really 2-6 Flash


       Finally, we have the Ultimate Weapon against the helpless victim Really. Actually, this matchup could be closer than we'd expect: despite what his winrate suggests, Really is able to hang with the best, with recent wins over Leta, Mind, and Light, and Really was the one who broke Flash's ridiculous 12 22-game (KeSPA-official) TvT win streak in late 2009, when Flash was just going into godmode. Unfortunately for Really, Flash is fresh off another huge seventeen-game TvT winstreak, and it would be Liquibet suicide to pick Really to win this series. Still, I wouldn't eat my shoe if Really took a game.

Prediction: Really 1-2 Flash


*Actually I can't promise that; go bother flamewheel.
Writer
ReketSomething
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States6012 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-04-28 07:24:00
April 28 2011 07:23 GMT
#2
You are definitely just lazy.

At least its out in time! Jaedong fighting!

+ Show Spoiler +
ffffllllllllaaaaaaaaaaammmmmmmmeeeeeeeeewwwwwwwwhhhheeeeeeeeeellllllllll
Jaedong :3
TheOnly92
Profile Joined September 2010
Malaysia804 Posts
April 28 2011 07:28 GMT
#3
BW needs more love!
prototype.
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Canada4215 Posts
April 28 2011 07:29 GMT
#4
I think leta can beat soulkey easily if he doesn't go mech.
( ・´ー・`)
cabarkapa
Profile Joined November 2009
United States1011 Posts
April 28 2011 07:32 GMT
#5
Flash is gonna be OUT in ro16!!

and Hyuk will be champion when there will be no one mighty enough to take him down
Jaehoon - Master strategist
Lucumo
Profile Joined January 2010
6850 Posts
April 28 2011 07:32 GMT
#6
My predictions are the same except for Stork > Hydra. I really want him to win and stomp Hydra into the ground =/
ReketSomething
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States6012 Posts
April 28 2011 07:33 GMT
#7
Hyuk defeated Flash before in individual leagues ez. Stork better fuckin beat Hydra...
Better fuckin dominate him.
Jaedong :3
dRaW
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
Canada5744 Posts
April 28 2011 07:35 GMT
#8
Flash off 17 TvT winstreak? Why is the last game a TvT Loss ?
I don't need luck, luck is for noobs, good luck to you though
0mgVitaminE
Profile Joined February 2009
United States1278 Posts
April 28 2011 07:37 GMT
#9
17 game streak, lol

Wish there wasn't so many mirrors, looking forward to watching Jaedong through this whole tournament though
Hi there. I'm in a cave, how bout you?
]343[
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States10328 Posts
April 28 2011 07:38 GMT
#10
On April 28 2011 16:35 dRaW wrote:
Flash off 17 TvT winstreak? Why is the last game a TvT Loss ?


he had a 17-game winstreak right before that
Writer
NicksonReyes
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Philippines4431 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-04-28 07:40:11
April 28 2011 07:39 GMT
#11
Yeah! I'm looking forward to some TvT nerdgasms,ZvT revolution(mass ensnares when Leta thinks he's safe with bio?) and Calm vs Hyuk(who will hyuk who?).
"Start yo" -FlaSh
darktreb
Profile Joined May 2007
United States3017 Posts
April 28 2011 07:43 GMT
#12
Small correction, Really was the guy who ended Flash's 22 (not 12) game TvT winstreak, and yeah it was a truly remarkable streak.
]343[
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States10328 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-04-28 07:52:28
April 28 2011 07:47 GMT
#13
On April 28 2011 16:43 darktreb wrote:
Small correction, Really was the guy who ended Flash's 22 (not 12) game TvT winstreak, and yeah it was a truly remarkable streak.


ah, that's right--I remember it was a lot more impressive than 12. (and that Ultimate PL, STX Masters, and GOM aren't "real leagues" )


On April 28 2011 16:29 prototype. wrote:
I think leta can beat soulkey easily if he doesn't go mech.


I'd like to think this too, but maps these days just cry for mech in lategame TvZ... so maybe Leta could try to end it before then, idk.
Writer
LLuke
Profile Joined May 2010
Austria228 Posts
April 28 2011 07:55 GMT
#14
Everything seems quite reasonable, although I really feel it is hard to predict the outcome of Stork/Hydra.
In Hydra vs Stork it always depends on Stork, if he decides to leave his Samsung Galaxy/ Cellphone games and starts to prepare, I can see him winning, even 2-0. In my humble opinion, Stork just didn't give everything he had recently. If he decides to put an effort into his games once again, the Dinotoss can maybe rise again. Maybe.
Although you gotta say, Hydra is quite strong at the moment.

I'm curious if Hyuk hyuks himself...again.
Tripping off the beat kinda, dripping off the meatgrinder
ffreakk
Profile Joined September 2010
Singapore2155 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-04-28 07:57:42
April 28 2011 07:56 GMT
#15
Stork NEEDS to beat Hydra.. Cmon Dinotoss, crush that scum~~ >:[
Look. Only Forward. See. Only Victory.
]343[
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States10328 Posts
April 28 2011 07:58 GMT
#16
On April 28 2011 16:55 LLuke wrote:
Everything seems quite reasonable, although I really feel it is hard to predict the outcome of Stork/Hydra.
In Hydra vs Stork it always depends on Stork, if he decides to leave his Samsung Galaxy/ Cellphone games and starts to prepare, I can see him winning, even 2-0. In my humble opinion, Stork just didn't give everything he had recently. If he decides to put an effort into his games once again, the Dinotoss can maybe rise again. Maybe.
Although you gotta say, Hydra is quite strong at the moment.

I'm curious if Hyuk hyuks himself...again.


hehe, of course I'd _like_ Stork to win, and it's certainly not out of the question (or even that improbable), but I have to pick a side
Writer
Anxiety
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States650 Posts
April 28 2011 07:59 GMT
#17
Dammit Flash, losing you last TvT because you are afraid Really will end it again?

-Insert: I am a Really fan ok?-
TRAP[yoo]
Profile Joined December 2009
Hungary6026 Posts
April 28 2011 08:06 GMT
#18
thanks for making a preview i always enjoy reading this things
FTD
Vasoline73
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
United States7830 Posts
April 28 2011 08:28 GMT
#19
Thanks for the preview. Hoping Soulkey v Leta is as awesome as the potential it has. I also expect 2-0 Hydra even if I want Stork to win...
Kipsate
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Netherlands45349 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-04-28 08:37:24
April 28 2011 08:36 GMT
#20
the real question after today will be:

What the hell is horang2 doing in the Ro8 MSL?
WriterXiao8~~
Lucumo
Profile Joined January 2010
6850 Posts
April 28 2011 08:43 GMT
#21
On April 28 2011 17:36 Kipsate wrote:
the real question after today will be:

What the hell is horang2 doing in the Ro8 MSL?

Only set 1 is being played today.
prototype.
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Canada4215 Posts
April 28 2011 08:57 GMT
#22
On April 28 2011 17:43 Lucumo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 28 2011 17:36 Kipsate wrote:
the real question after today will be:

What the hell is horang2 doing in the Ro8 MSL?

Only set 1 is being played today.

And he won't even be playing tonight. But yea, he will most likely make it to the ro8.
( ・´ー・`)
Kipsate
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
Netherlands45349 Posts
April 28 2011 08:58 GMT
#23
On April 28 2011 17:43 Lucumo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 28 2011 17:36 Kipsate wrote:
the real question after today will be:

What the hell is horang2 doing in the Ro8 MSL?

Only set 1 is being played today.


Ow yea, good point, but still, he will most likely be in the Ro8.
WriterXiao8~~
Armathai
Profile Joined October 2007
1023 Posts
April 28 2011 09:04 GMT
#24
Woot, some good writing and predictions.
Stork Fighting!

Also I hope Jaedong doesn't randomly fuck up against reality, this play 1game and then another later system is really terrible, it takes away the series-playing mentality.
Looking for ArcticCerebrate formerly from @USEast
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