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TSL3 Bracketology 102

Blogs > OTL
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OTL
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
313 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-03-13 21:15:58
March 13 2011 11:30 GMT
#1
On March 13 2011 11:08 OTL wrote:
[image loading]


TSL3 Bracketology 102


Hello once again. If you are reading this and have not read TSL3 Bracketology 101, I suggest you do so because I'm not going to preface this all too much. Instead, I will say that I have gone through each of the methods and filled out the brackets. So without further ado, let's get into it.

Method 1a:

Our first way of going about this is the one already mentioned in TSL3 Bracketology 101.

[image loading]
Ah, the alphabet.


The alphabet is truly a marvelous creation. It gives structure and order to our thoughts. It is where we turn to for our entire written language. While many of us turn to other languages first, English is the official language of Team Liquid and so it is the one that is represented here.

The alphabet is good for many things. It gives us the words we use. It leads to catchy songs. It can even be used for food. So who's to say that it can't also lead to a good bracket?

+ Show Spoiler [Methods & Bracket] +
Methods:

Whichever player's ID comes first alphabetically wins the match-up.

+ Show Spoiler [Bracket] +
[image loading]


Method 1b:

While the alphabet's amazing and everything, and having a logical order is nice, we all know that sometimes that just isn't how things roll. Sometimes things just don't make sense. Sometimes left is right. Sometimes up is down. Sometimes (P)SanZenith beats (Z)NesTea. And sometimes "Z" is "A."

[image loading]
The hell, is that a nine in there?


With that being said, sometimes it is best to go completely opposite of what we would normally do.

+ Show Spoiler [Methods & Bracket] +
Methods:

Whichever player's ID comes second alphabetically (first reverse-alphabetically) wins the match-up.

+ Show Spoiler [Bracket] +
[image loading]


Method 2:

Perhaps using the alphabet is a bit too preordained. There's no real mystery there. The players' fates were determined the moment they were born. Or at least the moment they hit the login button. Whatever.

[image loading]
Everyone's got an even shot here. Unless Washington's on the other side too.


We now turn to a classic decision-maker. Coins have been used throughout history to determine winners and yield advantages in sports and in other arenas. Coin flipping actually has had a large impact in Starcraft II's short history.

Last year at Dreamhack Winter 2010, Finnish player (T)Naama famously won the tournament and ~$25,000. However, Naama was only able to advance to the playoff bracket through the luck of a coin toss. How crazy would things get if we used coins for every match-up?

+ Show Spoiler [Methods & Bracket] +
Pretty crazy, apparently.

Methods:

Coin is flipped for each individual match-up.

Coin must land heads or tails two out of three times.

Player occupying the upper position in each match-up is always heads.

+ Show Spoiler [Bracket] +
[image loading]


Method 3:

While flipping a coin is random, there may be tendencies. I am after all human, and maybe the way I flip the coin is inefficient and inaccurate. Perhaps my method of flipping a coin has a true tendency of yielding 52% heads and only 48% tails. How random is anything really if a woman or man is holding the reigns? To take the future out of my hands, we turn to computers.

[image loading]
Synthetics, better than humans at everything. Except making sequels.


Well, I lied. Sort of. We turn to computers, who are in turn, turning to nature. I used a random number generator for the next way of filling out the bracket. There's tons of them all over the internet, most of which are really bad or lead to some shady websites. So, I went over to the fine folks at Random.org and used the one they've devised. What separates them from most other "random" sources is they don't use algorithms, which are inherently nonrandom. Instead, they use atmospheric noise to determine all the numbers they plug into their programs.

+ Show Spoiler [Methods & Bracket] +
Methods:

I used the ranking list from here to order the players 1-32.

I generated a random number from 1-32. That player wins TSL 3.

That player and his Ro32 opponent are removed from the list and everyone is renumbered (if needed).

A new random number from 1-30 is generated and that player advances until they hit the winner. He and his Ro32 opponent are removed from the list and everyone is renumbered (if needed).

A new random number from 1-28 is generated and that player advances until they hit a previously selected player. He and his Ro32 opponent are removed from the list and everyone is renumbered (if needed).

Ad naseum.

+ Show Spoiler [Bracket] +
[image loading]


Method 4a:

Alphabets, coins, algorithms, atmospheric noise, what is all this junk? Where did we veer off to? This is still about Starcraft II isn't it? And last I checked, it's up the players to perform and decide winners. So let's go with that. Let's take what we already know and use that to determine our winner.

[image loading]
Could TSL3 have a similar looking podium?


The popular sentiment is that Koreans own white dudes. It was true in Brood War, so it must be true in Starcraft II, right? Plus, Koreans have had great showings at foreign tournaments including IEM, Blizzcon, Kasperky, and the FXOpen tournaments, to name a few. And there's the fact that players who have spent a long time in Korea have dominated when they've gone to foreign tournaments, examples include: Idra at MLG D.C., Jinro at MLG Dallas, and Ret at Assembly Winter. Logic says this is the way it's going to be and that it's going to continue and exacerbate itself until Starcraft II is just like Brood War was.

+ Show Spoiler [Methods & Bracket] +
Methods:

Using the Korean TLPD, the highest rated Korean player wins.

Any non-Korean automatically loses.

In the case of a foreigner versus a foreigner, the player who has had the most experience/success playing in Korea, playing in Korean tournaments, and playing with Koreans in foreign tournaments moves on.

+ Show Spoiler [Bracket] +
[image loading]


Method 4b:

There's something to be said for the volatility of Starcraft II. This isn't Brood War. There are no bonjwas. There are no insane win percentages in televised games over the course of months and months and months. No one is unbeatable, and the Koreans themselves best exemplify this.

[image loading]
Season five of GSL created a world where most of the "best" players are knocked out early and the "weaker" ones move on, what if this continues?


There's a ton of reasons one could throw around for why there were so many upsets in GSL March. Perhaps the players we think are really good, are actually overrated. Maybe the good players got lazy and didn't train as much since they've gotten a taste of the money. Maybe some of these lesser players are actually really good and just needed time to train or just needed more opportunities to show it. Whatever the case may be, it might continue in a small sense in TSL 3.

+ Show Spoiler [Methods & Bracket] +
Methods:

Using the Korean TLPD, the lowest rated Korean player wins.

Any non-Korean automatically loses.

In the case of a foreigner versus a foreigner, the player who has had the most experience/success playing in Korea, playing in Korean tournaments, and playing with Koreans in foreign tournaments moves on.

+ Show Spoiler [Bracket] +
[image loading]


Method 5a:

Maybe Korea isn't the answer though. This is a foreigner tournament, and yes while there are seven Koreans participating, there is a majority of foreigners. This is their home, their virtual turf, and they're not going to just let anyone waltz right in and own the place just because they were born in a certain country.

[image loading]
Traditionally, the winner of TSL is considered the champion of the foreigners.


Maybe there is something to the foreigner talent pool. Perhaps, it is underrated or undervalued. Who's to say Koreans are really better than foreigners?

+ Show Spoiler [Methods & Bracket] +
Methods:

Using the International TLPD, the highest rated player wins.

Any Korean automatically loses.

+ Show Spoiler [Bracket] +
[image loading]


Method 5b:

When I said that Koreans best exemplify the volatility of Starcraft II, I was using a bit of hyperbole. In fact, the foreigners have had their fair share of strange moments, most relevantly the TL Opens.

[image loading]
1. Play Warcraft III 2. Switch over to Starcraft II 3. ????? 4. Win TL Open


In fact, six out of the eight TL Open winner/qualifiers have strong Warcraft III backgrounds and little to no Brood War experience. If that doesn't surprise you even a little bit, then I don't know what will.

+ Show Spoiler [Methods & Bracket] +
Methods:

Using the International TLPD, the lowest rated player wins.

Any Korean automatically loses.

+ Show Spoiler [Bracket] +
[image loading]


Method 6:

While anything can happen in Starcraft II, and Koreans and foreigners alike have showcased this, things have already happened in Starcraft II. This isn't the first big tournament in Starcraft II.

[image loading]
Money, the ultimate factor in every decision.


Players have already been thrust into the limelight many times in the short history of Starcraft II. Some have performed and others have not. This can be used to determine our future winner. Who is able to shine when the lights are brightest, the noise most thundering, the tension most thick, and the smallest mistake most unforgiving?

+ Show Spoiler [Methods & Bracket] +
Methods:

Using this awesome website, the player with the most money earned in Starcraft II up until this point wins the match.

+ Show Spoiler [Bracket] +
[image loading]



Well, that's all of them. The brackets are filled and now the matches need to be played. This concludes TSL3 Bracketology 102. TSL3 Bracketology 103 will be done once the first round of TSL3 is completed.

****
Hyperionnn
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Turkey4968 Posts
March 13 2011 11:57 GMT
#2
i cant decide right now which bracket is true lol
Wunder
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United Kingdom2950 Posts
March 13 2011 11:59 GMT
#3
I gotta be honest with you, I read the whole thing; and I'm still confused. So for 103 you're going to go through all the methods again and see if any of them match up with the first round?
Writer@joonjoewong
Souma
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
2nd Worst City in CA8938 Posts
March 13 2011 12:15 GMT
#4
Haha, this was an interesting read. You put a lot of effort into it. Kudos.
Writer
Munk-E
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United States672 Posts
March 13 2011 13:19 GMT
#5
I don't understand how TLPD works, but why on earth is kas highest by such a margin?

Has he done anything for a while? what's it based on?

Nonetheless, nice post, and thank's for the link! I'm gonna win the lottery now!
You recognise me because of my signature!
ondik
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
Czech Republic2908 Posts
March 13 2011 13:54 GMT
#6
My bracket is pretty similar to OP's last one

On March 13 2011 22:19 Munk-E wrote:
I don't understand how TLPD works, but why on earth is kas highest by such a margin?

Has he done anything for a while? what's it based on?


Because he's fucking beast? Just check his matchlist..
Bisu. The one and only. // Save the cheerreaver, save the world (of SC2)
Armathai
Profile Joined October 2007
1023 Posts
March 13 2011 14:34 GMT
#7
I like method 4b and method 6 haha
6 produced a surprisingly good bracket imo

Thanks for the fun though :D
Looking for ArcticCerebrate formerly from @USEast
Sermokala
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States13828 Posts
March 13 2011 14:42 GMT
#8
I disagree with your last one beacuse MC is about to take the highest winnings spot after this next GSL seeing how hes the last guy left on top
A wise man will say that he knows nothing. We're gona party like its 2752 Hail Dark Brandon
redFF
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States3910 Posts
March 13 2011 15:32 GMT
#9
i think that jinro should be considered as a "korean" as he is one of the best players in korea right now.
Spartacus.
Profile Joined April 2010
Turkey84 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-03-13 16:25:04
March 13 2011 16:24 GMT
#10
My bracket is almost the same (with the exception of only 1 result) as 4a lol
Amestir
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Netherlands2126 Posts
March 13 2011 16:32 GMT
#11
I found this extremely intresting to read. One of your brackets is going to be (fairly) right for sure!
We know nothing.
anatem
Profile Joined September 2010
Romania1369 Posts
March 13 2011 16:39 GMT
#12
i like the result achieved through your 3rd method, since the romanian guy wins it all, ah, the world of imagination :-))
'Tis with our Judgements as our Watches, none / Go just alike, yet each believes his own.
Pawsom
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
United States928 Posts
March 13 2011 16:40 GMT
#13
On March 14 2011 00:32 SupastaR wrote:
i think that jinro should be considered as a "korean" as he is one of the best players in korea right now.


Where was he born? Raised? Are you trolling?
DivinO
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States4796 Posts
March 13 2011 17:13 GMT
#14
Excellent read.
LiquipediaBrain in my filth.
`Zapdos
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States935 Posts
March 13 2011 17:20 GMT
#15
I feel.. this deserves a spotlight :o
www.twitch.tv/thezapdos come watch me :]
Gara
Profile Joined March 2011
Canada435 Posts
March 13 2011 17:58 GMT
#16
Haha, most of these are amusingly meaningless, but Method 4a is actually pretty close to what I predicted, except I had Jinro > Boxer and MC > MVP, based on the results of the current GSL.
MacroNcheesE
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States508 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-03-13 18:09:59
March 13 2011 18:09 GMT
#17
Man, that was a really fun read :D. However, none of those are right, because NonY didn't end up winning in any of them. Rethink your methods! Except for the coin flip one I guess...
Doubt is the venom that has paralyzed humanity.
Whole
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States6046 Posts
March 13 2011 20:13 GMT
#18
4a and 6 look legitimate lol
OTL
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
313 Posts
March 13 2011 20:35 GMT
#19
On March 13 2011 20:59 Wunder wrote:
I gotta be honest with you, I read the whole thing; and I'm still confused. So for 103 you're going to go through all the methods again and see if any of them match up with the first round?

Yes and no, for 103 I'm going to tabulate all the points each method earned for the Ro32. Since each TL member only gets one bracket I'm going to have to hand tabulate them (or head tabulate, rather), and I'll add in some commentary about the leaders and the trailers etc. I'll keep doing that after each round of TSL until it is complete, and then everyone can see how well their own bracket stacked up to each of these silly, arbitrary methods of filling out a bracket. I hope I explained that well enough. If you need more clarification, feel free to ask.

On March 13 2011 22:19 Munk-E wrote:
I don't understand how TLPD works, but why on earth is kas highest by such a margin?

Has he done anything for a while? what's it based on?

Nonetheless, nice post, and thank's for the link! I'm gonna win the lottery now!

I'm sure someone else can explain the methods behind ELO a lot better than I, but the simple answer is that Kas is really good and that Kas plays A LOT. He's playing in tournaments, leagues, and show matches constantly and beats really good players very consistently. While he may not be the best "skills" wise out of every foreigner, it's hard to bump your ELO up when you don't play very often. Anyone who you think is better than Kas would need to start playing in a lot more tournaments to knock him off the #1 spot (and/or have Kas start playing poorly).

On March 13 2011 23:42 sermokala wrote:
I disagree with your last one beacuse MC is about to take the highest winnings spot after this next GSL seeing how hes the last guy left on top

Yes, I realize MC is about to take a huge lead in the prize money regardless of if he wins or not. However like the TSL Ranking list was done the moment the TL Open 8 was finished, even though they knew the ELO's could drastically change between then and the start of the TSL 3, I decided to use the prize money available now. My reasoning is, I don't know how much more money everyone else is going to get (or at least don't really want to go through and do the math for every single player) and that is going to affect a lot of other match-ups. I don't know when the site is next going to be updated, and if they don't update until the conclusion of GSL March, then the TSL will have already started and I wanted to have the brackets done before the start of TSL. This without even taking account all of the non-GSL tournaments. I'm not going to have much free time between now and the start of TSL; I had to draw a line somewhere.

On March 14 2011 02:58 Gara wrote:
Haha, most of these are amusingly meaningless, but Method 4a is actually pretty close to what I predicted, except I had Jinro > Boxer and MC > MVP, based on the results of the current GSL.

If you missed 101, that's the point . They're supposed to be completely silly and arbitrary. I mean why would someone automatically lose a match by virtue of being born in a specific region? None of these make any sense, really.


If anyone is interested, here's my actual bracket for comparison's sake. I'm pretty much done tinkering with it, but I might flip-flop on a couple matches between now and the first TSL3 matches.
Reason.SC2
Profile Joined April 2010
Canada1047 Posts
March 13 2011 20:49 GMT
#20
I'm calling it right now. Method 4a is 100% accurate.
Turgid
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States1623 Posts
March 13 2011 21:19 GMT
#21
4a is VERY close to mine.
(╬ ಠ益ಠ)
Jugan
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States1566 Posts
March 14 2011 01:01 GMT
#22
I like the Koreans automatically win, followed by highest rated bracket

I think that one is the most likely outcome, BUT WHO KNOWSSSS?
Even a Savior couldn't fix all problems. www.twitch.tv/xJugan
Ulfsark
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United States958 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-03-14 09:12:22
March 14 2011 09:12 GMT
#23
Awesome blog, was extremely entertaining, Most of the scenarios were very humorous. Will be interesting to see which of your methods is the closest.
gg wp
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