by: Waxangel

Group A: MVP.DongRaeGu, ST_Bomber, Liquid`TaeJa, STX_INnoVation

Best. Group. Ever. (for DRG)

With the WoL chapter of the GSL coming to a close, MVP.DongRaeGu, may have set the record for "Best Ro16 Group for the #1 Seed Ever." From his dominating Ro32 performances against Innovation and Hack, and his confident interviews after, there was no question that DongRaeGu wanted to play against Terrans. To get three of the five Terrans in the Ro16 in his group was a remarkable stroke of luck that he could not have expected.

Or was it? One could make the argument that when taking a Terran with the first pick, this was the expected chain reaction. In the present state of StarCraft II, there are virtually zero Terran players who would take a TvZ by choice. Once Life took PartinG, the only Protoss on the board, with the second pick of the night, it was no surprise that the Terrans preferred to prey on each other than try and pick the 'easiest' Zerg opponent. DRG picked Bomber, Bomber picked TaeJa, and TaeJa picked Innovation.

While everyone expected DRG to take a Terran with his first pick, his specific choice of player was somewhat puzzling. Why ST_Bomber, an immensely talented player who shook off inconsistency problems to put together one of the best three month runs of his career? After getting burned by picking Polt and Creator in previous group selections, one would have thought DRG would go with the safest opponent.

DRG's official explanation was that he wanted for Bomber to finish second in the group and be sent to the opposite side of the bracket, where he would clean up the remaining Protosses on his way to the finals. That's the kind of logic that's so convoluted that you could see DongRaeGu actually reaching that conclusion organically, but it's still simpler to think that DRG just considers Bomber the weakest TvZ player of the bunch. Where the viewers saw a great TvZ performance from Bomber in his games against Sniper in the Ro32, DongRaeGu might have seen vulnerability. Few people would know Sniper's ZvT game better than his teammate DRG, and instead of seeing the 0 – 2 scoreline, he might have seen the few adjustments that Sniper could have made to take an easy victory.

Even if DRG's choice of picking Bomber was the 'wrong' one, it won't matter as the two Terrans many thought were the best choices ended up in his group anyway. Innovation is definitely a strong Terran, but didn't look to be quite at DRG's level when they met in the Ro32. Once a TvZ master, TaeJa looked considerably hampered by injuries during his Ro32 games against Nestea, and he's been very vocal about his dislike of TvZ.

While DongRaeGu is the strong favorite to make it through this group in first place, there is one important precedent to keep in mind. Back in 2012's Season Two, DRG managed to get an all-Terran Ro32 group through a random draw. This was the season right after DongRaeGu had won the Code S championship, and was considered the best player in the world. Yet, in one of the biggest upsets of 2012, DongRaeGu lost to TheStC and TaeJa to be immediately eliminated from the tournament. So, while DongRaeGu deserves to be confident heading into this group, he should be cautious that it does not become overconfidence.

The Battle for Second?

Though Korean players frequently mask confidence with humbleness, it really does look like the Terran trio is resigned to fighting among themselves for the second place spot. While none of the three showed any outward confidence against DRG, they all seemed confident in their TvT ability, and not without reason. ST_Bomber came off a one sided 2 – 0 victory over Gumiho in the Ro32, finally figuring out and defeating an opponent who had his number for a very long time. Liquid`TaeJa, too, won an solid TvT victory in the Ro32, taking out the upstart Noblesse 2 – 1. While STX_INnoVation didn't have to face any Terrans in the GSL this season, he's been playing well at the Terran mirror in the Proleague with a 5 – 3 record. Even outside their most recent records, all three players have shown great TvT ability throughout their careers (even Bogus, in his half year playing SC2).

For Bomber, it's worth asking if momentum, stats, and recent performances really matter. Since he debuted, no one's really questioned his talent or ability to go up against the best players in the world. The issue has always been his unnatural tendency to fall apart, make bizarre decisions, and throw away leads. The last few months for Bomber have shown him play with remarkable consistency by his standards. As is the case for many of the "cursed" franchises in traditional sports, fans are simultaneously excited for what might be possible, and nervous about when things will inevitably go wrong.

After seeing Mvp get knocked out of Code A last night, one has to be worried for TaeJa. Mvp's wrist injury caused him to slowly but surely decline, and we're seeing the same thing happen to the Liquid Terran ace. TaeJa was known to practice a ton back when he was healthy, and having his practice time cut into has affected his play considerably. Fortunately for TaeJa, TvT is the match-up where players most easily retain their skill, so he still has a good shot at going to the Ro8.

With TaeJa and Bomber having their issues to deal with, that leaves Innovation as the surprise(?) favorite to make it through in second. Innovation has yet to hit the peaks Bomber or TaeJa have reached at their best, but there's really nothing to say against him. He's a very solid macro game player and has a good sense for how to use all-in builds in a multi-game series. Maybe he was a bit disappointing in the early going of the Proleague season, but since then he's bounced back and looks very much deserving of the Ace tag for STX Soul. Innovation might not be the sexiest pick to go through as second, but he is the safest.

Predictions

DongRaeGu > Bomber
Innovation > TaeJa
DongRaeGu > Innovation
Bomber > TaeJa
Innovation > Bomber

DongRaeGu and Innnovation advance.