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DHM Winter Finals: RO16 Group A & B Preview

Forum Index > SC2 General
15 CommentsPost a Reply

DHM Winter Finals: RO16 Group A & B Preview

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
November 8th, 2021 20:33 GMT

DreamHack Masters Winter: Season Finals

While the 2021/22 season of the ESL Pro Tour still has a couple of more stops remaining, DreamHack Masters is ready to bring its 2021 year to a close with the Winter Season Finals. Once again, almost all of the top players in the world have been gathered for one grand tournament, with the winner claiming $10,000 in prize money and 450 EPT points that are sure to come in handy come IEM Katowice.

The DHM Winter Season Finals will be held from November 9th to November 11th, with all match days beginning at 13:00 GMT (+00:00).

DreamHack Masters Winter 2021: Season Finals


RO16 - Group A Preview: Trap, Cure, Scarlett, TeebuL

by Poopi

Start time: Tuesday, Nov 09 1:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00)

Some might see this group as the group of life, with the unheralded TeebuL taking Probe's seed out of the Oceania/Rest of Asia region. Also, Scarlett, is still 'merely' the North American champion. That makes it easy to predict that Trap and Cure, a semifinalist and champion of the latest Code S season, will advance easily. Yet, I think an upset is a real possibility in this group. I will not make any exaggerations about TeebuL's chances, but Scarlett, in my opinion, actually has a real shot at taking the second place spot.

To begin, predicting Trap to beat TeebuL is a no brainer. Still, seeing how the UK/Pakistan Protoss managed to beat Probe, he still deserves some respect. It seems like he did not abuse cheeses heavily and instead won straight-up games, with good use of DTs. I doubt he can take a map off Trap, but this should be a useful experience for the rarely seen major tournament player.

The other initial match of Cure versus Scarlett should be closer, but I see Cure as the clear favorite in this clash of regional victors. In fact, he has never lost a series against the Canadian Zerg, and leads 12–3 in map score. Some of Cure's recent results suggest that he's suffering from a mild championship hangover, but I do not think this match will be really difficult for him. There's no GSL in sight for now, so it's about time for the fearsome online-Cure to return.

A likely winners' match between Cure and Trap should not be too much more difficult for the GSL champion. He dismantled every single top Protoss on his way to the championship, including Trap in a one-sided 4-1 semifinals. Since then, he beat Trap again 2-0 and 2-1 in the King of Battles qualifiers, and I doubt the momentum is going to swing back towards Trap soon. As mentioned before, Cure has been stumbling here and there since winning Code S, and he recently lost to SKillous in the TSL8 EU qualifier and NightMare in the King of Battles qualifier. But there won't be any server disadvantage against Trap, and you can expect him to be more prepared for a pre-scheduled main event match than one of many qualifier games. Cure advancing as first place is the likely, predictable result—the real upset odds are in the decider match for second place.

Indeed, Scarlett should advance easily from the losers' match against TeebuL, with more than 900 Aligulac rating points separating the two in PvZ (that comes out to a 92%+ win chance for Scarlett according to the stats website). That would set her up for what would certainly be a much more difficult match against Trap, but hardly one that's impossible to win.

I think she has a real shot at beating Trap—in fact, she already did it back during the Summer Season Finals!. Although Trap was one of the favorites to win the entire tournament at the time, he lost consecutively to Scarlett and Lambo and their Queen walk all-ins. Sure, new maps have arrived and the meta around Queen walks and defending against them might be different, but Scarlett remains a scary ZvP player. Superb ZvP was the main reason she won the DHM North American regional, beating Astrea before dethroning Neeb as the regional boss. Neeb is hardly a slouch in ZvP, even beating Reynor in two BO3 series soon after at StayAt HomeStory Cup #4 (though he lost to Lambo and Solar soon after). You must take care when using transitive property in StarCraft II, but with those results in mind, I'm made to believe that Scarlett has a real chance of beating Trap in a BO3.

Trap’s PvZ is very hard to gauge. He's played very close series against Serral in recent tournaments (3-4 in PiG Sty Festival, 2-3 in Stay At HomeStory Cup)—yet he's also lost BO3's lately against slightly weaker Zergs like Solar, Lambo and Armani

Overall, the two players' recent results suggest to me that they are both capable and somewhat as likely to win a decider’s BO3 against each other, therefore my prediction will be based on my gut feeling. And that means I'm predicting Scarlett to advance over Trap.

Predictions:
Trap > TeebuL
Cure > Scarlett
Trap < Cure
TeebuL < Scarlett
Scarlett > Trap

Cure and Scarlett to advance.


Group B Preview: Clem, Zest, Neeb, Cyan

by Wax

Start time: Wednesday, Nov 10 1:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00)

Like Group A, this group also had two ostensible favorites in Clem and Zest, but the underdogs are too dangerous to write-off out of hand. Neeb has thwarted Clem in the past, and the unpredictability of PvP gives him a fighting chance against even a top two PvP player in Zest. Cyan would have been easy to dismiss in the first half of 2021, but he recently showed us an improved version of himself by upsetting TIME to become the first new Chinese champion in years.

The Season Finals always seem to present the same kind of test for Clem: How good are your non-TvZ match-ups? With some of his recent losses in TvZ—including losses to Serral that saw him lose his EU crown—Clem now has some questions to answer on that end. However, TvP and TvT have always been the more 'traditional' thorns in his side. As we've often repeated on TL.net, the quality of Clem's TvP gameplay looks to be top-tier, but he always seems to lose the match-up in crucial moments. We saw that unfold rather starkly in the last Season Finals against PartinG, where Clem seemed to be ahead in a crucial game on Lightshade. Yet, perhaps due to impatience (or TOO much patience), he managed to throw the lead and eventually lose the series.

Neeb has already beaten Clem in two DHM Season Finals group stages, while Zest famously defeated him in IEM Katowice (though Clem actually has a winning record against Zest in smaller events). Even Cyan, with quality wins against TIME under his belt, could present a threat. This is one of the worst possible draws for Clem, but it's the kind of adversity he'll have to overcome to become a real championship-class player on the global stage.

The PvP bloodbath between the remaining three non-Clem players has a fairly clear hierarchy, with Zest way ahead of the other two at #1 in the Aligulac.com PvP rankings, Neeb holding the middle at #10, and Cyan way down below at #31. With 400 rating points between EACH of the three players (800 between Zest and Cyan), it's hard to predict any kind of unexpected outcome, even considering the variance and chaos of PvP.

Zest has just been a beast in general, going all-out in his final year of progaming in a way that's both admirable and a bit uncanny. At this point, I kind of want him to spend a month on vacation, see some friends, and check out the autumn scenario at Seoraksan national park. But, instead, he insists on being good at StarCraft and playing in every tournament possible, so it wouldn't surprise me if he manages to win DHM Winter as his own retirement gift to himself.

On the other hand, Neeb's form has been shaky in the last few months, notably going 4-3 in his DHM North America group and only advancing to the playoffs on the difference of a single map. While he recovered in the playoffs and dominated his NA peers once more (until he ran into Scarlett), that moment of inconsistency was enough to plant some doubt in my mind.

As for Cyan, it's still unclear how 'real' his surprise run to the top of DHM China was. Ever since he beat TIME in an epic grand finals reverse-sweep, his results in other tournaments have remained mostly the same, still struggling to defeat players on the level of Clem, Zest, and Neeb. On the plus side, he did steal a 1-1 against Zest in the World Team League about a week ago, so he might not be totally doomed in PvP.

All in all, I'm going with the safe prediction and picking Zest and Clem to advance. Despite Clem's historic TvP troubles, I don't think Neeb or Cyan will be threatening enough to eliminate him from the group stages this time.

Predictions

Clem > Cyan
Zest > Neeb
Zest > Clem
Neeb > Cyan
Clem > Neeb

Zest and Clem to advance.





Writers: Wax and Poopi
Photos: DreamHack
Statistics: Liquipedia


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TL+ Member
ImmortalGhost
Profile Joined April 2019
United States57 Posts
November 08 2021 20:52 GMT
#2
There's a mistake in your last prediction. You say Zest and Clem, but then you say Zest and Neeb to advance.
Argonauta
Profile Joined July 2016
Spain4906 Posts
November 08 2021 20:56 GMT
#3
Scarlett over Trap? That's bold! I dont see it happening
Rogue | Maru | Scarlett | Trap
TL+ Member
Crocolisk Dundee
Profile Blog Joined October 2015
870 Posts
November 08 2021 21:22 GMT
#4
Cheering for TeebuL here.
Stopped watching ESL content in 2022 when the company was acquired by Savvy Gaming Group. Also object to sponsorships by the U.S. Air Force. Thanks for the lively discussions about sportswashing. StarCraft II is not for me anymore.
starvingbox1
Profile Joined July 2021
18 Posts
November 08 2021 23:05 GMT
#5
I can hardly wait!
Nakajin
Profile Blog Joined September 2014
Canada8989 Posts
November 08 2021 23:28 GMT
#6
Hype for Zest, hopefully he can finally win again before military.
Writerhttp://i.imgur.com/9p6ufcB.jpg
Topin
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Peru10055 Posts
November 08 2021 23:44 GMT
#7
thanks for the preview!

On November 09 2021 05:56 Argonauta wrote:
Scarlett over Trap? That's bold! I dont see it happening

there is a chance if you consider Scarlett DH NA run but still it will pretty hard
i would define my style between a mix of ByuN, Maru and MKP
QOGQOG
Profile Joined July 2019
834 Posts
November 09 2021 05:27 GMT
#8
On November 09 2021 08:44 Topin wrote:
thanks for the preview!

Show nested quote +
On November 09 2021 05:56 Argonauta wrote:
Scarlett over Trap? That's bold! I dont see it happening

there is a chance if you consider Scarlett DH NA run but still it will pretty hard

With the combo of Scarlett's improvement in form over the last year or so and Trap's occasional PvZ implosions, I think she has a decent shot. Plus the fact that Cure has been slumping means I don't think he's guaranteed advancement either.
tigera6
Profile Joined March 2021
3359 Posts
November 09 2021 08:25 GMT
#9
Scarlett form in recent DH NA and WTL has been VERY good, so I am not shocked if she get out on top on this one. Cure and Trap have not been at their peak performance since the GSL run, so suprise can happen in group A.
Durnuu
Profile Joined September 2013
13320 Posts
November 09 2021 09:57 GMT
#10
Wow I had no idea this started today, thank you for the reminder lmao
BUNNYYYYYYYYY https://i.imgur.com/BiCF577.png
WombaT
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Northern Ireland25085 Posts
November 09 2021 12:09 GMT
#11
Teebul fighting!
'You'll always be the cuddly marsupial of my heart, despite the inherent flaws of your ancestry' - Squat
purepat
Profile Joined May 2021
Malta17 Posts
November 09 2021 12:29 GMT
#12
PeetbuL
warnull
Profile Joined February 2016
United States280 Posts
November 09 2021 14:40 GMT
#13
Goooo Scarlett!!!
RandomPlayer
Profile Joined April 2012
Russian Federation390 Posts
November 09 2021 16:49 GMT
#14
Liquid team, please do something about your upcoming events section. I've been waiting for Dreamhack and was checking the section for it regularly, it was never there! Now I can see it being live! This is happening all the time. It says esl pro tour, which means nothing. Can be qualifiers, esl weekly cup or whatever. Thanks.
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17671 Posts
Last Edited: 2021-11-09 17:34:28
November 09 2021 17:32 GMT
#15
On November 10 2021 01:49 RandomPlayer wrote:
Liquid team, please do something about your upcoming events section. I've been waiting for Dreamhack and was checking the section for it regularly, it was never there! Now I can see it being live! This is happening all the time. It says esl pro tour, which means nothing. Can be qualifiers, esl weekly cup or whatever. Thanks.

use liquipedia instead
there's a list of upcoming matches and upcoming tournaments on the main page (Wiki)Main Page
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Poopi
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France12793 Posts
November 09 2021 17:35 GMT
#16
On November 10 2021 02:32 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 10 2021 01:49 RandomPlayer wrote:
Liquid team, please do something about your upcoming events section. I've been waiting for Dreamhack and was checking the section for it regularly, it was never there! Now I can see it being live! This is happening all the time. It says esl pro tour, which means nothing. Can be qualifiers, esl weekly cup or whatever. Thanks.

use liquipedia

You can also click on ESL Pro Tour from the sidebar, and it will show the full name, ex: "DHM Winter Season Finals Grp B" with also a liquipedia link.
I hope Clem qualifies, he seems to get difficult draws for a TvZ specialist, although his TvP rating is surprisingly high
WriterMaru
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