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Code S RO8 - Rogue vs Dark, Zoun vs PartinG (Season 2)

Forum Index > SC2 General
18 CommentsPost a Reply

Code S RO8 - Rogue vs Dark, Zoun vs PartinG (Season 2)

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
July 14th, 2021 14:43 GMT

2021 GSL Code S Season 2 - RO8 Day 2 Preview

by Poopi

With Bunny and Trap through to the first semifinal, it's time to find out which two players will advance from the other side of the bracket. While it wouldn't be a surprise to see any of Rogue, Dark, or PartinG advance, perhaps it's time for rising star Zoun to have a breakout Code S performance.

[image loading]
More info: GSL Code S Season 2 on Liquipedia

Quarterfinal Match #3: Rogue vs Dark

Start time: Thursday, Jul 15 9:30am GMT (GMT+00:00)

Rogue versus Dark is very difficult to predict for multiple reasons, the most obvious one being that Rogue is probably the hardest individual player to predict in StarCraft II. His tournament-to-tournament form can seem random, going from World Champion to group stage fodder at the drop of the dime. In Code S, he was stuck as a RO8-tier player for the longest time, before encroaching on hallowed ground with 3 championships in the last two years. He’s become a sneaky candidate to one day win the G5L trophy, with his invincible record in offline BO7’s giving him a unique edge. After he overcame the odds to defeat Maru in last season’s finals, nothing seems to be off the table for Rogue.

But let’s not get too ahead of ourselves. Before we can speak of the G5L or best-of-sevens, there’s an extremely difficult best-of-five coming up for Rogue. Looking at the bracket, the biggest obstacle between Rogue and a fourth Code S title could potentially be Dark, and he’s facing him in the first round of the playoffs.

While some might think it’s expected for Rogue to be in this spot, others might see it as a minor miracle. After all, he’s accustomed to bombing out early in the tournament immediately after a big win, and it could have happened again this season. The new Code S format starting from RO16 is pretty forgiving, with a quarterfinal spot being two BO3 wins away. As the reigning Code S champion, Rogue assembled an easy group for himself, taking a rookie Code S player in Percival and making practice easy by stacking the rest of the group with Terrans. Even then, he dropped a map to Percival, gave little resistance to Bunny in a 0-2 defeat, and beat a slumping ByuN to advance. Even though Rogue is in the playoffs, it feels like he’s suffering from some of his usual post-championship hangover.

But even if Rogue was playing at a high level, he wouldn’t necessarily be favored in this match. Dark has put up a much better win-loss record in 2021 ZvZ’s, going 40-19 (67.80%) in maps compared to Rogue’s 33-28 (54.10%). Rogue does have the edge in career head-to-head matches by 44-34 in maps, and won their only 2021 meeting back in Code S Season 1’s group stage.

Looking at the two players’ performances since their Code S clash in April, Dark has been on a ZvZ hot streak, going 12-2 in matches, with those two losses coming against Lambo and Reynor (though he gave up disappointing 1-1 ties to Cham and RagnaroK in the World Team League). Rogue, on the other hand, played far fewer matches, winning a solid 3-1 victory against Solar in Super Tournament 2, but giving up losses to DongRaeGu and Reynor in other competitions. Their mutual losses to Reynor in major tournaments are an interesting throughline and comparison point. Dark lost 2-3 compared to Rogue’s 1-3, and the general quality of his play seemed better regardless of the map score—though that’s not necessarily indicative of how they’ll play against each other in a direct match.

Overall, the statistical records in ZvZ paint a slightly more positive picture for Dark, but it’s not enough to convince me that he is the obvious favorite. Aligulac coldly thinks of Rogue as a moderate underdog here with only a 41% chance to win, though I don’t trust Aligulac rating system for predicting Rogue’s matches—especially in major tournaments like GSL.

Ultimately, the motivation factor is what leads me to believe Dark is the slight favorite in this match. It’s been two years since Dark’s last Code S win, and outside of TeamLiquid Starleague 6 last December, Dark has been pretty starved for a major tournament victory. While Dark has certainly been inconsistent, he's also played fantastic, championship-tier StarCraft II in spurts. On the other hand, Rogue is showing some signs of his post-championship complacency with his recent performances. Also, it’s a best-of-five and not a best-of-seven, so he does not have that aura of invincibility around him to intimidate his opponent.

Doubting Rogue is always risky—there’s every chance that he will utterly crush Dark and my prediction. But I think the group stage of the tournament—even though it involved mostly ZvT’s for Rogue—gave enough hints that it’s the disappointing version of him, not the multiple-time champion, who's come to play. Of course, Rogue is still a fearsome preparation-format player, so Dark will have to play his best Starcraft in order to win. But I truly believe that he is in championship form at the moment, and a serious candidate to win it all.

Prediction: Rogue 1 - 3 Dark


Quarterfinal Match #4: Zoun vs PartinG

PvP is sometimes seen as a more volatile match-up than ZvZ, but I find this match easier to predict than the previous one. In fact, if it wasn’t for Zoun’s special knack for pulling off reverse sweeps and upsets, I would have predicted PartinG to win without much further research.

The Alpha X protoss has proved that his hype as an up and coming player in 2020 was deserved. He reached the finals of both GSL Super Tournaments this year, both times falling short against the Tier 2 king, Trap. In fact, he even beat PartinG 3-1 on his way to the finals of ST 1, and even more impressively reverse swept Dark in ST2, before narrowly beating Rogue 3-2 and sOs 3-2 to reach the finals. Zoun’s Code S performances have also rapidly improved, and he’s become a regular fixture of the tournament. While he went out in the RO16 in Season 1, it was a very excusable result in a group with INnoVation, Dark and Rogue.

In contrast, while PartinG is a much more accomplished player than Zoun overall, even reaching the final four of IEM Katowice, he’s been in a GSL slump in 2021, failing to qualify for Code S at all in Season 1. That’s partially due to his incredibly poor match-up luck in Code A (drawing Dark in Season 1), but there’s no such mitigating factor when you compare his Super Tournament performances to Zoun’s.

GGSL results aren’t necessarily the best indicators to predict their performance in this specific PvP duel, so let’s take a look at how they’ve been doing in the match-up on the whole. PartinG is seen as a slight favorite by Aligulac.com, leading in every statistical category. However, their PvP ratings—the metric that actually decides Aligulac’s prediction—are actually quite close, giving PartinG a somewhat modest 56.19% chance to win.

Zoun’s PvP record in 2021 is nothing to scoff at with an impressive 37-19 match record (66.07%) match record, but PartinG managed to accrue an even better record while playing more games, putting up a 69-26 PvP match record in 2021 (72.63%). Zoun couldn’t really touch PartinG in head-to-head matches before 2021, with a 0-8 record map record prior to his breakout 2021. Then, things started to turn around, with Zoun actually leading 7-6 in maps in 2021 (including his 3-1 win in the GSL Super Tournament).

We have to mention PartinG’s incredible momentum in PvP, where the big picture stats may not yet have caught up to how well he’s playing at the moment. Ever since PartinG’s last defeat to Zoun 2-3 in ESL Cup Asia #75 a month ago, he won 16 matches while only losing 1, surprisingly to Nice. Notably, he destroyed Zest 3-0 in Code A in a shocking manner, avenging his loss from the IEM Katowice semifinals. Seemingly for good measure, PartinG went on to beat Zest again in an ESL Open Cup, and then took down top PvP player Trap 2-0 in the Code S group stages en route to this quarterfinal match.

Similarly to Rogue vs Dark, I respect Zoun’s ability to play better in big matches and keep things close when he’s the underdog. However, PartinG is in scary form at the moment, and he's a threat to reach the Code S finals for the first time since 2015.

Prediction: Zoun 1 - 3 PartinG



Credits and acknowledgements

Writer: Poopi
Editor: Wax
Images: AfreecaTV
Records and Statistics: Aligulac.com and Liquipedia


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TL+ Member
Fuell
Profile Joined February 2011
Netherlands3111 Posts
July 14 2021 15:13 GMT
#2
gonna be some interesting mirrors! looking forward
fOu/Zenith/NEX/WeRRa/SlayerS
Garbo1
Profile Joined July 2020
49 Posts
Last Edited: 2021-07-14 15:31:53
July 14 2021 15:17 GMT
#3
Agreed with the prediction. Dark is in phenomenal form compared to Rogue this season, and Parting is in championship form.

Moving forward I think Dark still has the edge over Parting, but I think Bunny beats them both.

Edit: Actually scrap that. I think Bunny loses to Dark in the finals due to first time jitters.
Argonauta
Profile Joined July 2016
Spain4185 Posts
July 14 2021 15:25 GMT
#4
Rogue and Zoun for me.
Rogue | Maru | Scarlett | Trap
TL+ Member
tommey.liang
Profile Joined November 2020
United States254 Posts
July 14 2021 15:28 GMT
#5
Predictions:
Dark 3-2 Rogue
PartinG 3-1 Zoun
FF, KH, Persona, Uncharted, Yakuza | Porter, Illenium, MitiS, Dabin, Seven Lions, Petit Biscuit | Diablo II, SC2 | Pho, sushi, tacos
swarminfestor
Profile Joined September 2017
Malaysia1822 Posts
July 14 2021 15:41 GMT
#6
If Dark win against Rogue, Trap may win GSL for the first time in his career. If Rogue win against Dark, then it will be his fourth GSL title.
Rogue & Maru fan boy. ^^
Ciaus_Dronu
Profile Joined June 2017
South Africa1582 Posts
July 14 2021 16:42 GMT
#7
I'm feeling Dark or Trap for this one.

Every tournament I've seen of Rogue recently he's been kinda meh. I always want to see him pull out his god-mode, but I'm not sure now is the time.

Trap and Dark have both looked great recently, and Trap is on a bit of a tournament streak.
Waxangel
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
United States31315 Posts
July 14 2021 18:28 GMT
#8
I'm less convinced about Dark's form lately, but he definitely could win Code S again IF he gets hot
AdministratorHey HP can you redo everything youve ever done because i have a small complaint?
TL+ Member
QOGQOG
Profile Joined July 2019
559 Posts
July 14 2021 18:32 GMT
#9
On July 15 2021 01:42 Ciaus_Dronu wrote:
I'm feeling Dark or Trap for this one.

Every tournament I've seen of Rogue recently he's been kinda meh. I always want to see him pull out his god-mode, but I'm not sure now is the time.

Trap and Dark have both looked great recently, and Trap is on a bit of a tournament streak.

The problem is that Rogue looked pretty meh last season until he absolutely demolished Maru in the finals.

While I agree Dark is looking good, he seems to be struggling in ZvP of late, and given he'll need to face at least one and likely two Protoss players in order to win I'm not too confident in this being his return to championship mode.
jpg06051992
Profile Joined July 2015
United States576 Posts
July 14 2021 21:18 GMT
#10
I do think Parting is in great form, same can be said about Dark.

At this high level of play though, I'm kind of a believer that while one player or the other may have an edge, those things can change at the drop of a hat, especially in mirrors.

The winners will be whoever shows up to play and makes the better decisions, super tough to call. Both matches I think are going to come down to the wire.

Dark > Rogue 3:2

Parting > Zoun 3:2
"SO MANY BANELINGS!"
Garbo1
Profile Joined July 2020
49 Posts
July 14 2021 22:02 GMT
#11
I just don't get this faith in Trap. Bunny is going to crush him.
dysenterymd
Profile Joined January 2019
659 Posts
July 14 2021 23:03 GMT
#12
I think it's possible we have a PvP finals. Zoun has taken long series off Rogue/Dark in the past. A GSL semifinals is a different beast entirely, but with good planning and some luck he could do it. Parting is a tricky player and ZvP can be a tricky matchup too. I'd favor the Zerg, but the semis will be interesting
Serral | Inno | sOs | soO | Has | Classic
Neuling
Profile Joined October 2013
Germany44 Posts
July 15 2021 06:27 GMT
#13
If Rogue wins here, he may just win the tournament again. I think it will be Dark today tho. Also i have a lot of faith in PartinG right now, especially in PvP, i would be suprised if he lost more than one map. But i guess in PvP anything can happen.

Dark 3-1 Rogue
PartinG 3-0 Zoun
Edpayasugo
Profile Joined April 2013
United Kingdom2145 Posts
July 15 2021 07:59 GMT
#14
I'm feeling Dark and Zoun
FlaSh MMA INnoVation FanTaSy MKP TY Ryung | soO Dark Rogue | HuK PartinG Stork State
RKC
Profile Joined June 2012
2493 Posts
July 15 2021 08:17 GMT
#15
Feeling for Twilight Zone as well.
gg no re thx
t5Fab
Profile Joined July 2018
125 Posts
July 15 2021 09:32 GMT
#16
Rogue 3-1 Dark
Parting 3-2 Zoun
Fuell
Profile Joined February 2011
Netherlands3111 Posts
July 15 2021 12:27 GMT
#17
On July 15 2021 06:18 jpg06051992 wrote:
I do think Parting is in great form, same can be said about Dark.

At this high level of play though, I'm kind of a believer that while one player or the other may have an edge, those things can change at the drop of a hat, especially in mirrors.

The winners will be whoever shows up to play and makes the better decisions, super tough to call. Both matches I think are going to come down to the wire.

Dark > Rogue 3:2

Parting > Zoun 3:2

solid
fOu/Zenith/NEX/WeRRa/SlayerS
Shathe
Profile Joined July 2017
Hungary416 Posts
Last Edited: 2021-07-15 14:40:35
July 15 2021 14:34 GMT
#18
CasterS overhyping Rogue again, and ignoring Dark's greatness
QOGQOG
Profile Joined July 2019
559 Posts
July 16 2021 01:04 GMT
#19
On July 15 2021 23:34 Shathe wrote:
CasterS overhyping Rogue again, and ignoring Dark's greatness

In fairness, Dark has had a rough year while Rogue has been pretty consistent, at least by Rogue standards.
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