herO, INnoVation, Leenock, Squirtle

by CosmicSpiral

“Leenock is one of the best zergs in the world” will likely remain a true statement until the end of his career. Yet the value of that statement has rapidly diminished over the HotS era. Ever since his last victory at Dreamhack Stockholm, he seems like a shell of his former self. Not much has changed about his playstyle but the competition and context are utterly alien compared to the old GSL days. For a long time Leenock greatly benefited from multiple forms of exclusivity. He was instantly recognizable as the wee little prodigy who played in the original GSL Open Seasons; before patch 1.4.3 the Korean Zerg hierarchy was clear-cut and the weakest in overall results, making him one of the elite by default; Leenock played an aggressive and unpredictable style when zerg was commonly used for passive, reactive strategies. In HotS his uniqueness has faded due to the conjunction of faster, harass-based gameplay (a necessity for the new ling/bane/muta composition) and a slew of young talented KeSPA Zergs. No amount of legacy will guarantee a stable future, especially considering he hasn’t reached the Ro16 since GSL 2012 Season 5.

Does Leenock have what it takes to rise again? Players usually don’t get second winds and when they do it’s portended beforehand. Since joining Yoe Flash Wolves, Leenock has attended several foreign tournaments with little to show for it. He still beats most foreigners convincingly and has done admirable work in ATC Season 3 and ECL, but we expect that from a player of his caliber. Leenock’s performance against Koreans is especially worrying in its sketchiness. While he’s beaten notable names like Symbol and HerO, such confrontations usually end up in big losses. He is the underdog in this group and it will take an inspired performance for him to get out.

If Leenock’s story is Icarus without the devastating fall, then IM_Squirtle is Cinderella without the happy ending. From March – August 2012 Squirtle put on glass slippers and transformed into the prettiest Protoss at the ball, dancing his way into multiple second place finishes. His fairy godmother Selendis didn’t warn him about wayward feet though. Every time he came close to finishing a waltz, some kind gentleman brought his heel down hard in the wrong spot. By the time Creator stepped up the slippers were on life support and we all know what happened next. Ever since Squirtle has toiled away with that weight of regret overshadowing his career. Even now passing the group will inevitably conjure memories of his past supremacy, puffing up expectations beyond reasonable bounds. Until Squirtle reaches level 16 he should be treated like any other member of his race.

Squirtle’s fate depends almost entirely on who he meets after the first round. He still has the touch when it comes to PvZ (30-16 in games, 15-5 in matches for 2014) and ought to beat the struggling Leenock. Winning that is crucial as it gives him a buffer before facing his next opponent. If he gets Innovation, Squirtle can employ his patented 2 base pushes and try for the upset. If he meets herO in the winners match he can sacrifice that match and move on to the elimination bout. Above all Squirtle wants to avoid meeting herO in a series that decides his ultimate fate. Even though herO has shown some weakness in the mirror matchup at crucial times, the CJ Entus player will gladly face a guy who’s only 2-16 in his last 18 PvP games.

Meanwhile Acer.INnoVation barely needs bracket luck at all. No longer the invincible force that terrorized the early part of 2013, Innovation has spent a long time shoring up the weaknesses that went unnoticed during his glory days. He’s still stubborn regarding builds but not so inflexible that he needlessly dies from predictability; TvT is no longer debilitating as much as a matchup he handles with kid gloves; his TvP has evolved beyond midgame timing pushes with SCVs. The final result is not perfect by any means. Innovation still randomly drops games with mediocre showings. But if you’re a Korean who is trying to win GSL, it’s time to be scared again. The Terminator has successfully purged most faulty subroutines and is ready to crush face back home.

Yet he still hasn’t solved his defining problems, which have cost him dearly in WCS Korea before. Innovation’s primary weakness is not using safe builds in situations where it would be prudent. While he’ll play cautious with the units he has, Innovation seeks to gain economic advantage at the cost of losing the game. In particular he’ll repeat the 1 rax -> 3 CC build in TvZ no matter which map he gets. Innovation relies heavily on his game sense and unit control to compensate for this attitude. Against mechanically inferior opponents he can often out-micro them and ride his larger economy to victory. Against enemies who know better he can be overwhelmed by a strong timing attack (roach/ling all-ins having a special place in his nightmares).

Considering the Protoss curse that seems to blight every rising star, CJ_herO’s recent results in Proleague might be reason for worry. He disappointed fans in Round 3 with a mediocre 6-6 record and a quick exit from the playoffs. Considering he looked like the Second Coming a mere month or two ago, people might be tempted to treat his success as an aberration. But before we start throwing shade let’s remember he faced some stiff competition in that time period. Soulkey, Maru, and Flash are all tough opponents, and Flash pulled off a genuine miracle to win their match. The losses to Stats and Stork are more questionable but not indicative of anything weird: herO is not the greatest PvP player in history and the matchup can be unpredictable. The more damning condemnation would be his unreliability in clutch situations, but even that only has two games to back up the premise.

Not much can be said about hero. He’s strong in PvZ and PvP. He has a habit of losing PvP BoX series in ugly fashion and is liable to being outsmarted by those willing to cheese. Within this group, he is the player with the greatest array of strategies at his disposal. All of this suggests he is the favorite to advance especially considering Innovation’s stubbornness.

Predictions:

Every player in this group has a real chance of getting through so a lot of it will come down to the first two rounds. As mentioned before, Squirtle would prefer any fate rather than meeting herO in an elimination match, so he desperately wants to beat Leenock. Concurrently herO is consistently strong in all matchups except PvP, but Squirtle is so bad at it that herO would still have the advantage there; obviously he wants to win his first match just so he can get a free ride through the winners match. TvP can be a risky proposition for Innovation and he would prefer to avoid dying to two-base timings. Otherwise he is a favorite to advance as long as he prepares against early attacks accordingly. But since he probably won’t do that, Leenock would want to face Innovation at least once. But all these mental gymnastics don’t mean much in the end. In a group this stacked, consistency will be the deciding factor.

herO > Innovation
Leenock < Squirtle
hero > Squirtle
Innovation > Leenock
Innovation > Squirtle

herO and Innovation advance.