£400 SC2Improve Summer League 2013 - Page 4

Game Order :
Adonminus vs Satiini
GraVe vs TrOn
Winner's Match
Loser's Match
Final Match


Adonminus
http://cascadeprogaming.com/
Overall Rank : 1st with 280 Points
Season 2 Rank : 1st with 200 Points


Adonminus is the SC2Improve Winter League Champion and while he did not look so impressive in Season 1 of the Summer League with losses to players such as JackO he made up for it with his performance in Season 2. He strung together an impressive set of results, finishing 2nd to Tefel in Qualifier #5, the most stacked Qualifier we hosted with multiple top level players, followed by a win in Qualifier #6 and a RO4 finish in Qualifier #7 where he lost to TrOn. The points he has accumulated tell the story on their own as he currently resides almost 100 points ahead of second.

Adonminus should be able to play a relaxed set of games, knowing that if he does not make it into the RO16 through this Season Finals he is still almost definitely guaranteed a place due to his amazing overall ranking. What he does have to play for though is seeding - wherever he finishes here determines what seed he will receive in the RO16 which could be important for him to avoid big names in the early stages of the tournament.

Adonminus is possibly going to be the favourite in the matches as well, though his weakness in PvT may come to haunt him. Although determined to tell us that his PvP is his worst matchup when we see him he is always losing to Terrans - and with two strong TvPers in the group this could cause him some issue. Satiini is his first opponent who showed some weakness just a week ago dropping a map to GraVe, but was still able to take the series. If he makes it past his first opponent it is very likely Adonminus will meet TrOn who took him down 2-0 two weeks ago. This likelihood is what makes me feel as though Adonminus, despite being the favourite, may only make it out of this group in second place.

GraVe
http://www.cplay.de/
Overall Rank : 2nd with 195 Points
Season 2 Rank : 2nd With 120 Points

GraVe is in a strangely similar situation to Adonminus, he is highly ranked in the Overall points and so even if he does not make it through today he has a good chance of making it through on these points he has accumulated. GraVe is definitely the weaker player to Adonminus, although maybe the more consistent. He earned his points through numerous RO16+ finishes, including a second place finish to Satiini in Qualifier #8.

So what has GraVe got to lose? Going into this probably as the underdog of the group all he has to think to himself is that he isn't expected to make it through here and if he doesn't he still has that RO16 spot secure. This could lead to some interesting builds from GraVe and maybe some riskier play than what we usually see. His first match is against TrOn who plays a very standard yet solid macro style. Yesterday TrOn dropped a map against GraVe's teammate JackO, so maybe we will see some planning from the CPLAY Protoss' to catch TrOn off-guard.

His other potential matches are against Satiini and Adonminus. I think he has a fair chance against Satiini - he only lost 2-1 to him in Qualifier #8 and those games had quite some interesting twists and turns. It could definitely fall either way here, with Satiini being the slight favourite. Against Adonminus though I really don't feel GraVe has much of a chance. Adonminus is so brilliant when it comes to his pick of build in PvP and he has shown us everything from clutch defences to simple aggression in the match-up. I feel GraVe is going to end up in the bottom 2 of this group, though it could definitely be third instead of fourth.

TrOn
http://www.the-dead-generation.de/
Overall Rank : 5th with 113 Points
Season 2 Rank : 3rd with 110 Points

TrOn was a RO8 finisher in the SC2Improve Winter League and he has only in Season 2 really begun to take part in the Summer League, which is possibly why he isn't in as strong a position in rankings as you might expect, only scraping into the Season 2 Finals. These games mean a lot to TrOn as a failure to Qualify here will mean he has to up his game and participation to earn some points to secure his qualification in another way. And he does want to Qualify - back in the SC2Improve Winter League TrOn was stopped short of showing himself on Finals Day (RO4 + Finals) when he lost 3-2 to Mix who used a mixture of all-ins against him. TrOn will definitely be looking for a way to improve on his past performance in an SC2Improve League.

Let's look at TrOn's chances here. He looks amazing in TvP and in the past 3 weeks we have seen him dismantle every Protoss opponent in his path, including multiple GM's (and Adonminus!). Going up against GraVe in his initial match I think TrOn has a strong chance to make it through - and then it comes down to the other result.

Against Adonminus our German Terran will have the mental edge, knowing he took the 2-0 against him very recently. I think if we see macro games TrOn definitely has the upper hand here and could top the group. However if Satiini is his next opponent then I do not really know what to think. I have not seen much of TrOn's TvT (except when I played against him and he Hellion-Nuke Rushed me... I probably should have won that) and nor have I seen much of Satiini in terms of TvT. This is a match I really do not know what to expect if it comes down to it.

Satiini
http://www.gamersleague.no/
Overall Rank : 11th with 100 Points
Season 2 Rank : 4th with 100 Points

Satiini really has cut this fine! He only played in one single Qualifier and he won it to squeeze into the Season 2 Finals. Out of all the names here you are most likely to have heard Satiini's. Though never yielding amazing offline results Satiini has always managed to deliver online with numerous high finishes in online cups. If he doesn't make it through today it will be interesting to see whether he wishes to try and play in more Qualfiiers to make that RO16 in some other way.

He plays against Adonminus first and I think Adonminus is just a clear favourite here being the higher ranked player on ladder and in terms of just how impressively consistent he has been. I would be surprised to see Satiini make this upset happen.

I've already more or less covered this, but again I feel against GraVe and TrOn things may swing either way which means his final placing in the group comes heavily down to whether we see any upsets - if he loses to Adonminus but does not meet him again then he has a good chance to progress. If he finds a way to get best Adonminus he will find himself with an even better opportunity. He is the dark-horse in this group and anything can happen around him.

My Predictions!
Adonminus 2 : 1 Satiini
GraVe 0 : 2 TrOn
Adonminus 1 : 2 TrOn
GraVe 1 : 2 Satiini
Adonminus 2 : 1 Satiini

Below I have included the Aligulac predictions, but read them with a pinch of salt as we are discussing some players who do not have a lot of games input into their system.

                   Top 2      1st      2nd      3rd      4th    
----------------------------------------------------------------
      Satiini     63.38%   34.14%   29.25%   20.30%   16.32%    
    Adonminus     58.03%   29.36%   28.67%   22.86%   19.11%    
        GraVe     47.96%   23.09%   24.88%   27.18%   24.85%    
         TrOn     30.63%   13.42%   17.21%   29.66%   39.72%