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Im leaning JSL town though.
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On September 03 2023 23:28 Vivax wrote:
They probably killed DMB to save her from a possible mislynch and the story that would accompany it.
The real important question right now is whose butt is on the line to be pillaged.
This makes no sense at all btw.
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On September 04 2023 18:06 JacobStrangelove wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2023 15:21 DarthPunk wrote:On September 03 2023 23:28 Vivax wrote:
They probably killed DMB to save her from a possible mislynch and the story that would accompany it.
The real important question right now is whose butt is on the line to be pillaged. This makes no sense at all btw. I think he's taking about the bisexual posting which sadly I've been to busy to do but it's coming.
Not that part
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On September 04 2023 20:22 Vivax wrote:
JS who do you think is a better lynch than you ?
Are you reading the thread??
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On September 04 2023 20:39 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2023 20:29 DarthPunk wrote:On September 04 2023 20:22 Vivax wrote:
JS who do you think is a better lynch than you ? Are you reading the thread?? Yeah he called you confirmed town you unvoted him and now ? He only said something about me being responsible for confusion when I was very straightforward about burying the shiz out of Koshi LS. This is where we enter tinfoil territory. You‘re not off the hook DP.
He is voting math right??
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On September 04 2023 20:42 Vivax wrote:
You should have had lazer focus on that night‘s eve already. Problem is you are not fully aware of the current public opinion.
I went into this day believing JS was the last but am now reconsidering.
You calling me mafia?
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On September 04 2023 21:12 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2023 20:50 DarthPunk wrote:On September 04 2023 20:42 Vivax wrote:
You should have had lazer focus on that night‘s eve already. Problem is you are not fully aware of the current public opinion.
I went into this day believing JS was the last but am now reconsidering. You calling me mafia? Not yet. I planned on going into this day voting JS. I think that what you are doing is mosly posturing so it‘s capable of influencing my read on you. It‘s mostly a PoE-read of mine after I wrote off TTT + Mathe.
What about Marv??
Why not math or ttt??
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On September 04 2023 21:22 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2023 21:19 DarthPunk wrote:On September 04 2023 21:12 Vivax wrote:On September 04 2023 20:50 DarthPunk wrote:On September 04 2023 20:42 Vivax wrote:
You should have had lazer focus on that night‘s eve already. Problem is you are not fully aware of the current public opinion.
I went into this day believing JS was the last but am now reconsidering. You calling me mafia? Not yet. I planned on going into this day voting JS. I think that what you are doing is mosly posturing so it‘s capable of influencing my read on you. It‘s mostly a PoE-read of mine after I wrote off TTT + Mathe. What about Marv?? Why not math or ttt?? Check Koshi and LS for spew and wifom reads. Koshi‘s is avoidant of JS and LS I need to reread but he had marv fully red.
He was joking In those Marv posts. Also wifom.
I will check about jsl being avoided.
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I tend to think koshi knew he was going down at some point.
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If it’s one of Marv and vivax who is it TTT?
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On September 04 2023 23:05 Vivax wrote:
And oddly avoidant of a shot on DP, marv if they're both town
Yeah I’m trying to figure this out.
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On September 04 2023 23:17 Vivax wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2023 23:14 JacobStrangelove wrote:On September 04 2023 23:12 Vivax wrote:On September 04 2023 23:11 TankTopTiger wrote:
Re: Vivax
JSL called the scum team dumb for shooting DMB.
Jacob is basically the nicest goofiest person you will ever meet, so this was really off. Jacob claims it was a trap to get DP to get prickly if he was scum (as JSL would be calling him stupid).
TBH I've cooled it a lot on the read, and probably prefer Math first now. Jacob thinks I'm tunneling him but it's more like I'm wanting to get him to straighten out and make sense - which doesn't look like is going to happen. So you got angry about it in DP's stead? Why is he shielding you? Yeah I don't think there's four mafia though so like the whole DP TTT shielding each other i'm not sure where you're going with it. I want to know if there's a realistic chance that he can be voted without bias from his acquaintances.
TTT? Yeah. I want to win more than I want to not lynch my irl friends
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On September 05 2023 06:51 JacobStrangelove wrote:
I think you might be over doing it in trying to solve the game in the theoretical. There's like we should be just lynching the person who makes the most sense.
Agree.
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On September 05 2023 03:10 marvellosity wrote:
I think it’s just going to be math here. I can find good reasons why everybody else looks town. Vivax isn’t playing like when he was mafia, there’s so many punctuations of well thought through analysis that was completely absent in that game. DP’s night post I could follow the thought process top to bottom. TTT (as DP would put it) has a few very emotionally congruent posts. And Jakey has kept up his style the whole game, isn’t flagging - the simplest explanation is actually that he’s actually town and the ‘goofy’ things he’s done are just exactly that. I just don’t have the same shit to hang my hat on with math. The vote on LS was the only move he could make there
Condensed everything down because that’s what my time allows, just wanted to get where I’m at out there
Agree
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I’d almost go math then ttt
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On September 05 2023 06:56 JacobStrangelove wrote:
Like are you worried we'll lynch you over him tomorrow? I can almost assure you that won't happen unless something comes up that gives us a good reason to do it. It just so happens that we're all still here. We're more than capable of lynching each other if scum (or I'd town tbh )don't you worry.
I want to get the win and not fuck up. That’s all.
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On September 05 2023 06:58 JacobStrangelove wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2023 03:30 Rels wrote:
Day Four Vote Count
JacobStrangelove (1): TankTopTiger
mathenalin (1): JacobStrangelove
TankTopTiger (1): Vivax
Not voting (3): DarthPunk, marvellosity, mathenalin
With 1 vote, JacobStrangelove is currently set to be lynched!
The deadline is Wednesday, Sep 06 2:00am GMT (GMT+00:00), which is in
Also a three way split is not going to lynch mafia I don't think. Math would just come in and ninja vote.
We still have a long time
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On September 04 2023 22:16 marvellosity wrote:Show nested quote +On September 04 2023 10:57 DarthPunk wrote:
DP's GameFAQ's Endgame walkthrough version 1.0
Obligatory before I maybe get killed post:
I think we are in a kind of 3 worlds situation in which 1 of 3 scenario's is the actual reality of the game and our job over the coming days is to work out which world we are living in.
I will outline these scenarios in order of likelihood (in my opinion)
Scenario 1 - Scum team collapse
This scenario basically assumes that the scum team suffered a catastrophic collapse for a variety of reasons. They have no thread control, are not able to find and push mis lynches and their team morale is in the gutter so nobody is trying.
I still think that this is a likely scenario because mathenalin is looking 'classically scummy' and clearly doesn't care about solving the game.
Issues with this is that if the scum team are just self voting one by one, first Koshi, then Math why have they not just conceded the game.
Maybe it is as Marv says, they are relying on us to WIFOM ourselves out of the obvious lynches and rely on us fucking up super badly in order to win.
I guess if this scenario is true we lynch math and then reassess (other option that fits is TTT but I think he is town)
Scenario 2 - Double Bus Gambit
This scenario is most likely if Mathenalin flips town.
Basically we have had a Goon and Mafia RB flip. There is a large chance that they have a GF remaining.
In this scenario LS was bussed because it was only a matter of time until he was lynched, and Koshi decided after failing to gain any traction and looking very scummy after his push on me that he was not able to recover and/or that attempting to not lynch Koshi was basically a scum claim for the remaining Mafioso.
So the GF lynches LS, lynches Koshi and tries to get to end game, not fearing a check.
This is probably the most dangerous scenario for town.
I think in this situation the remaining scum sit in the Marv/Vivax/JSL group. for various reasons which i will outline below.
JSL: this is fairly straightforward, he has been consistently scummy all game, TTT is strong reading him scum, I hated the way he only really cared about the lynch when he was trying to move people off of LS and onto math (in the world where math is town.) there have been a few occasions where things felt manufactured rather than genuine from him honestly i have been back and forth on him all game.
Marv: This would be the most personally upsetting result, cause if he is mafia he is channelling his old skills and pocketed me really hard. There are some good reasons to think Marv is mafia even though he seems quite reasonable and townie.
1.) I analyzed his voting patterns and it makes me nervous, for example: I sheeped his LS read but he was one of the last people on the wagon, after me, and the wagon had a lot of momentum when he got on. He also only voted for Koshi 20 minutes after Koshi self voted. Which makes me wonder if they discussed how they would handle Koshi in the scum discord. I guess when I looked at the voting patterns the concern was that there was a dissonance between marv's position on votes and his actually voting.
2.) There are a lot of metrics that align with his scum play, for example, I am on track to double his post count, he has been outposted by JSL and Perfection. (could be IRL but also tracks with his engagement levels as scum vs as town) He has also been more amiable, which is something that I associate with his mafia play more than his town play.
There is nothing that really jumps out at me that makes him mafia, but if he is trying as mafia it really wouldn't
Vivax: DMB NK, generally looking less town as time goes on, less curious than I would expect. He looks really good for getting DMB to secure the LS lynch, but that is also a bus play that I would expect, particularly if he was needing to manage the image of people.
Scenario 3 - Mafia Vig
This is basically the least concerning and most verifiable scenario.
The idea is that Perfection shot VE (a potentially strong player) while VE's stock was low and claimed vig in order to play the long game.
in this instance because the goon and RB have flipped, there cannot be a GF and Mafia Vig at the same time, COP should check here to eliminate this scenario.
I don't think this is very likely but should be eliminated for clarity.
Where to from here:
I think we lynch Mathenalin and either win the game or eliminate scenario 1.
if he flips town
Consider Scenario 2 (hopefully blue claim can help at some point): I like marv or JSL as mafia in this scenario, probably marv is most likely.
Consider Scenario 3 only if you happen to get a red check on Perfection
If you are town: and I am killed and you need to figure out Scenario 2 without me, you will need to have some thread presence to get it done. That means you actually need to push activity and make yourself obviously town, you will need to find the reasons the last mafia is mafia and make it clear to the others.
Good Luck!!
Wowsers
Why wowsers?
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What do you think if math is town Jake? Who is mafia?
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EPT
