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On June 18 2017 07:19 ruXxar wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2017 07:18 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:16 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:09 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:08 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:05 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:04 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:03 VayneAuthority wrote:
the correct play here is to lynch xatalos especially after that cop claim I just come from a game where a cop claim happened and people lynched into the cop (who was VT but that's kinda missing the point) how is the correct play in claim situation to lynch the unclaimed guy The correct play is to evaluate who the scummier one is instead of blindly lynching the check. 1. Mafia is a guessing game. 2. Mislynches happen super often 3. The moment a claim happens, it's the last way for the lynchee to avert his lynch So a) lynch cop b) lynch check, most likely lose a vt, real cop survives not sure how "lynch cop" is the better option here Where is the difference between losing a VT and an outed cop? An outed cop can be protected at night, is a confirmed town and an enforced mafia target. A vt is a vt. Think about it with a little more effort. If we lynch Xatalos and he is mafia then disfo is also basically confirmed town, can be protected and is an enforced mafia target. As long as scum has a roleblocker (which is very likely) there is 0 difference. Scum has a role blocker? Slip?
You're throwing so many dumbtells it's hard to believe they are genuine
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On June 18 2017 07:20 beentheredonethat wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2017 07:19 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:17 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:11 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:08 beentheredonethat wrote:
this is 1:1 the discussion I had in NSM, where Vivax claimed cop and everyone lynched vivax who in the end flipped town, surprise surprise (VT, but that doesn't really matter here) This anecdotal evidence is not very convincing. One day I'll understand why "lynch the cop" is better than "lynch the red-check" one day It isn't. But you need to consider the circumstances and this claim is incredibly fishy. Why would mafia claim when there are like 5 votes on him? now it's more due to the claim and apparently everybody's fine with it. if everybody's fine with something, it's probably scum.
Seriously?
Maybe because if we do what you say we lynch a townie, mafia survives a day and in the best case the real cop gets outed on top of it. Seems like a very good trade off compared to just going down without all of that.
In cases like this there is often an uncontested wagon on mafia.
Why do I have to explain basics like this...
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On June 18 2017 07:05 beentheredonethat wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2017 07:02 ruXxar wrote:On June 18 2017 06:56 beentheredonethat wrote:
There won't be a cc hopefully. There'll simply be a red check on disformation and a scum guy lynched.
And if not, we lynch Xata. If the cop cc's, he's probably dead. Cop shouldn't cc here. But I always prefer lynching the check over the claim.
"If disfo is scum we can always lynch him later."
No? This is so wrong.
It's not wrong. if disfo is lock scum, we can just leave him for last while we take out the others. You're leaving scum alive who potentially is a scum power role AND who can vote AND who can derail the thread? cool bra
How can he derail the thread if we know he's mafia?
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On June 18 2017 07:20 beentheredonethat wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2017 07:19 ruXxar wrote:On June 18 2017 07:18 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:16 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:09 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:08 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:05 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:04 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:03 VayneAuthority wrote:
the correct play here is to lynch xatalos especially after that cop claim I just come from a game where a cop claim happened and people lynched into the cop (who was VT but that's kinda missing the point) how is the correct play in claim situation to lynch the unclaimed guy The correct play is to evaluate who the scummier one is instead of blindly lynching the check. 1. Mafia is a guessing game. 2. Mislynches happen super often 3. The moment a claim happens, it's the last way for the lynchee to avert his lynch So a) lynch cop b) lynch check, most likely lose a vt, real cop survives not sure how "lynch cop" is the better option here Where is the difference between losing a VT and an outed cop? An outed cop can be protected at night, is a confirmed town and an enforced mafia target. A vt is a vt. Think about it with a little more effort. If we lynch Xatalos and he is mafia then disfo is also basically confirmed town, can be protected and is an enforced mafia target. As long as scum has a roleblocker (which is very likely) there is 0 difference. Scum has a role blocker? Slip? You're throwing so many dumbtells it's hard to believe they are genuine
I'm always 100% genuine. What you see is what you get.
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On June 18 2017 07:20 beentheredonethat wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2017 07:19 ruXxar wrote:On June 18 2017 07:18 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:16 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:09 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:08 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:05 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:04 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:03 VayneAuthority wrote:
the correct play here is to lynch xatalos especially after that cop claim I just come from a game where a cop claim happened and people lynched into the cop (who was VT but that's kinda missing the point) how is the correct play in claim situation to lynch the unclaimed guy The correct play is to evaluate who the scummier one is instead of blindly lynching the check. 1. Mafia is a guessing game. 2. Mislynches happen super often 3. The moment a claim happens, it's the last way for the lynchee to avert his lynch So a) lynch cop b) lynch check, most likely lose a vt, real cop survives not sure how "lynch cop" is the better option here Where is the difference between losing a VT and an outed cop? An outed cop can be protected at night, is a confirmed town and an enforced mafia target. A vt is a vt. Think about it with a little more effort. If we lynch Xatalos and he is mafia then disfo is also basically confirmed town, can be protected and is an enforced mafia target. As long as scum has a roleblocker (which is very likely) there is 0 difference. Scum has a role blocker? Slip? You're throwing so many dumbtells it's hard to believe they are genuine
Agreed. The guy is really all over the place.
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On June 18 2017 07:09 Chezitwo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2017 07:08 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:05 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:04 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:03 VayneAuthority wrote:
the correct play here is to lynch xatalos especially after that cop claim I just come from a game where a cop claim happened and people lynched into the cop (who was VT but that's kinda missing the point) how is the correct play in claim situation to lynch the unclaimed guy The correct play is to evaluate who the scummier one is instead of blindly lynching the check. 1. Mafia is a guessing game. 2. Mislynches happen super often 3. The moment a claim happens, it's the last way for the lynchee to avert his lynch So a) lynch cop b) lynch check, most likely lose a vt, real cop survives not sure how "lynch cop" is the better option here Where is the difference between losing a VT and an outed cop?
Great q
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On June 18 2017 07:22 Chezitwo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2017 07:20 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:19 ruXxar wrote:On June 18 2017 07:18 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:16 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:09 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:08 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:05 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:04 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:03 VayneAuthority wrote:
the correct play here is to lynch xatalos especially after that cop claim I just come from a game where a cop claim happened and people lynched into the cop (who was VT but that's kinda missing the point) how is the correct play in claim situation to lynch the unclaimed guy The correct play is to evaluate who the scummier one is instead of blindly lynching the check. 1. Mafia is a guessing game. 2. Mislynches happen super often 3. The moment a claim happens, it's the last way for the lynchee to avert his lynch So a) lynch cop b) lynch check, most likely lose a vt, real cop survives not sure how "lynch cop" is the better option here Where is the difference between losing a VT and an outed cop? An outed cop can be protected at night, is a confirmed town and an enforced mafia target. A vt is a vt. Think about it with a little more effort. If we lynch Xatalos and he is mafia then disfo is also basically confirmed town, can be protected and is an enforced mafia target. As long as scum has a roleblocker (which is very likely) there is 0 difference. Scum has a role blocker? Slip? You're throwing so many dumbtells it's hard to believe they are genuine Agreed. The guy is really all over the place.
Are you calling me mafia?
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On June 18 2017 07:22 Chezitwo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2017 07:20 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:19 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:17 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:11 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:08 beentheredonethat wrote:
this is 1:1 the discussion I had in NSM, where Vivax claimed cop and everyone lynched vivax who in the end flipped town, surprise surprise (VT, but that doesn't really matter here) This anecdotal evidence is not very convincing. One day I'll understand why "lynch the cop" is better than "lynch the red-check" one day It isn't. But you need to consider the circumstances and this claim is incredibly fishy. Why would mafia claim when there are like 5 votes on him? now it's more due to the claim and apparently everybody's fine with it. if everybody's fine with something, it's probably scum. Seriously? Maybe because if we do what you say we lynch a townie, mafia survives a day and in the best case the real cop gets outed on top of it. Seems like a very good trade off compared to just going down without all of that. In cases like this there is often an uncontested wagon on mafia. Why do I have to explain basics like this...
Wait.
"If we do what you say we lynch a townie." - TMI.
"Mafia survives a day."
And how is it the best case if the real cop gets outed for town?
This sentence only makes sense from mafia perspective.
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Now that's a slip
I just nailed mafia bitches
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On June 18 2017 07:24 beentheredonethat wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2017 07:22 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:20 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:19 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:17 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:11 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:08 beentheredonethat wrote:
this is 1:1 the discussion I had in NSM, where Vivax claimed cop and everyone lynched vivax who in the end flipped town, surprise surprise (VT, but that doesn't really matter here) This anecdotal evidence is not very convincing. One day I'll understand why "lynch the cop" is better than "lynch the red-check" one day It isn't. But you need to consider the circumstances and this claim is incredibly fishy. Why would mafia claim when there are like 5 votes on him? now it's more due to the claim and apparently everybody's fine with it. if everybody's fine with something, it's probably scum. Seriously? Maybe because if we do what you say we lynch a townie, mafia survives a day and in the best case the real cop gets outed on top of it. Seems like a very good trade off compared to just going down without all of that. In cases like this there is often an uncontested wagon on mafia. Why do I have to explain basics like this... Wait. "If we do what you say we lynch a townie." - TMI. "Mafia survives a day." And how is it the best case if the real cop gets outed for town? This sentence only makes sense from mafia perspective.
Jesus christ...
You ask "why would mafia claim" and I show you why mafia would claim. And then you act all confused. Why am I even bothering with this?
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On June 18 2017 07:26 Chezitwo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2017 07:24 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:22 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:20 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:19 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:17 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:11 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:08 beentheredonethat wrote:
this is 1:1 the discussion I had in NSM, where Vivax claimed cop and everyone lynched vivax who in the end flipped town, surprise surprise (VT, but that doesn't really matter here) This anecdotal evidence is not very convincing. One day I'll understand why "lynch the cop" is better than "lynch the red-check" one day It isn't. But you need to consider the circumstances and this claim is incredibly fishy. Why would mafia claim when there are like 5 votes on him? now it's more due to the claim and apparently everybody's fine with it. if everybody's fine with something, it's probably scum. Seriously? Maybe because if we do what you say we lynch a townie, mafia survives a day and in the best case the real cop gets outed on top of it. Seems like a very good trade off compared to just going down without all of that. In cases like this there is often an uncontested wagon on mafia. Why do I have to explain basics like this... Wait. "If we do what you say we lynch a townie." - TMI. "Mafia survives a day." And how is it the best case if the real cop gets outed for town? This sentence only makes sense from mafia perspective. Jesus christ... You ask "why would mafia claim" and I show you why mafia would claim. And then you act all confused. Why am I even bothering with this?
That's a lie. You're not answering my "Why would mafia claim when there are like 5 votes on him?" question. You are clearly saying "if we do what you say".
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On June 17 2017 19:28 Xatalos wrote:
Eh. I haven't been able to really keep up with the game so well up to this point, so I'll just say it: I'm the Cop and I decided to check disfo last night. He returned Mafia.
I was so close to claiming Cop several times last EOD, but managed to barely hold it in, because I wanted to use my power at least once. Luckily it paid off big time.
Obviously believes that the risk of being mis-lynched/shot N1 was worth it for the complete 'chance' to hit the lottery with Disfo mafia result. Ok, let's see what he does with it.
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On June 17 2017 19:30 Xatalos wrote:
One Miller already flipped so I suppose there could be another. Still, the odds are heavily in the favor of disfo being scum.
The next post, "possibilty if Disfo's not scum though"?
On June 17 2017 19:42 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2017 19:35 ruXxar wrote:On June 17 2017 19:33 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:31 Chezitwo wrote:
Sadly it could be more believable if you weren't the designated lynch, Mr. Xatalos. Well, I'm already dead by N2 regardless. I'm content even if disfo gets lynched tomorrow - of course today would be preferable so scum would use a kill on me instead. Heres the thing. Lynching you and having you flip as either alignment is going to give us more information than disfo flipping as scum. Does it really? If disfo flips scum (very likely), then I die N2, it seems like the optimal situation info-wise. Even if I'm lying, it'd be apparent soon enough so makes no difference for vote information. In any case it's not too bad even if I do get lynched now I guess.]/red]
"If Disfo flips scum" Again with this trying to distance from the fact that Disfo might actually not be scum. Second bit is even more damning. If you are a un-cced cop why the hell would you use previous arguement "i didn't want scum to shoot me N1" if you are just going to make let the town waste the mis-lynch on you (Who you should be screaming yourself confirmed town) STILL? "Oh, I didn't want mafia to shoot me, but if town mis-lynches me as long as they still lynch my check tomorrow it's ok." Like wtf? Instead we get 1 dead cop at lynch. Then we get two dead townies in N2. Instead of one dead scum at lynch.
On June 17 2017 19:54 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2017 19:51 disformation wrote:
mh actually i dont think a framer would frame me.
or a cop would check me over like tw or one of the inactives. Yea I'd think the only realistic option would be that you're a second unaware Miller if you're town. Usually there's 2 of them from what I've seen. The odds are low though, like 10% or less. So I'm content our best bet is to just lynch you.
More like 1:19 odds. So less than 5%. "I'm CONTENT"?? Why the hell are you not yelling from the mountain tops that this dude is scum yet? Why do you ignore the fact that you claim a vig would be better off shooting into the in-actives to hopefully hit mafia blind. But you just "had a hunch because Disfo voted you" so you didn't check one of the '?' marks yourself with your check. Harder to call in-actives mafia than someone half the thread has at somepoint thought about the possibilty of him being scum? Nah, let's ignore that though. You didn't mind if you died first? Would that have been the same if you missed mafia here? You would still be #1 lynch today.
Followed with this:
On June 17 2017 19:56 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2017 19:53 disformation wrote:On June 17 2017 19:51 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:42 Chezitwo wrote:On June 17 2017 19:40 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:35 disformation wrote:
got any crumbs?
why claim so early in the game and not try to case me to get more info/reactions before claiming midday?
technically i suppose it is not impossible for there to be a framer or some stuff
I suppose you could theoretically be another unaware Miller, or there could even be a Framer role. The odds aren't good at all though in either case. I didn't make any posts on the purpose of claiming my check (or role), since there are always risks. I think my play has been very similar to how I played as Cop last time though (including the EOD D1 events) - can't remember the name now but I can dig it up. Didn't really crumb there either, but my checks were successes either way. Weren't people calling for a vigshot on you? I did not read very closely yesterday but I seem to remember it this way. Seems more than just risky. I suppose it wasn't impossible I might have been shot. It wasn't for sure there even was a Vig though, and no way in hell would scum shoot me, and the optimal Vig shot would have been more in the direction of the AFK lurkers than just killing for info, so I wasn't too worried. If I had claimed / crumbed noticeably in the night, the odds of being shot/roleblocked would have increased instead. nonoonno you always shoot the close counterwagon to scum. you cop check the inactives. hard to read. low volumes. Not really. The lurky players are just a detriment at LYLO anyway, so it's better to kill them off immediately. Whereas somewhat active,[red] but not widely townread players are likely to live until LYLO but it's often hard to tell their alignment so checking is optimal.
So you know there is a possibilty of you dying N1, You are 100% dead N2. Better check the active guy we could figure out by lylo instead of the players you just said would need checking. Yep, that makes perfect sense.
On June 17 2017 19:59 Xatalos wrote:
But other than that, it's quite unlikely we're both town I agree.
Disfo still not actually mafia in this guys head.
On June 17 2017 20:02 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2017 19:55 Chezitwo wrote:On June 17 2017 19:51 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:42 Chezitwo wrote:On June 17 2017 19:40 Xatalos wrote:On June 17 2017 19:35 disformation wrote:
got any crumbs?
why claim so early in the game and not try to case me to get more info/reactions before claiming midday?
technically i suppose it is not impossible for there to be a framer or some stuff
I suppose you could theoretically be another unaware Miller, or there could even be a Framer role. The odds aren't good at all though in either case. I didn't make any posts on the purpose of claiming my check (or role), since there are always risks. I think my play has been very similar to how I played as Cop last time though (including the EOD D1 events) - can't remember the name now but I can dig it up. Didn't really crumb there either, but my checks were successes either way. Weren't people calling for a vigshot on you? I did not read very closely yesterday but I seem to remember it this way. Seems more than just risky. I suppose it wasn't impossible I might have been shot. It wasn't for sure there even was a Vig though, and no way in hell would scum shoot me, and the optimal Vig shot would have been more in the direction of the AFK lurkers than just killing for info, so I wasn't too worried. If I had claimed / crumbed noticeably in the night, the odds of being shot/roleblocked would have increased instead. So, are you going to solve the game today? Because you put us in a very inconvenient position. Your claim is very suspicious. Worst comes to worst, disfo is just a free lynch D3. I don't terribly mind that outcome since I'm dying soon no matter what. Considering that, I think I'll have some time today to read the game so I can try to leave a legacy.
Again we get a dead cop, mafia get to shoot whoever instead of us getting to aim there shot. But no that's better than lynching mafia today forcing some of their kp onto you tonight. Screw it if there is a doctor somewhere you might actually even live! But "it's ok, town totally lynch me first" is the scummiest thing I've read in a while.
On June 17 2017 20:29 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On June 17 2017 20:23 ruXxar wrote:
Meh, I think I'm going to pack it up and and get me some fresh air.
I think todays lynch is pretty much set in stone.
It's up to the mafia to try and turn the tides. It is actually surprisingly fine with me. I'm so dead regardless that a small boost to victory odds by tonnes of effort doesn't seem hugely appealing. If that's what we decide, then so be it. That being said, I'm in the unique position of knowing that disfo is already scum, so I'll most likely look at things and try to solve the scumteam from that perspective later tonight when I have more time again.
This guy doesn't even believe his own claim. Disfo's not mafia, and this crap claim is just trying to de-rail the arguement and push one more mis-lynch before he dies This is much is plainly obvious.
##vote: Xatalos
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On June 18 2017 07:28 beentheredonethat wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2017 07:26 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:24 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:22 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:20 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:19 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:17 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:11 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:08 beentheredonethat wrote:
this is 1:1 the discussion I had in NSM, where Vivax claimed cop and everyone lynched vivax who in the end flipped town, surprise surprise (VT, but that doesn't really matter here) This anecdotal evidence is not very convincing. One day I'll understand why "lynch the cop" is better than "lynch the red-check" one day It isn't. But you need to consider the circumstances and this claim is incredibly fishy. Why would mafia claim when there are like 5 votes on him? now it's more due to the claim and apparently everybody's fine with it. if everybody's fine with something, it's probably scum. Seriously? Maybe because if we do what you say we lynch a townie, mafia survives a day and in the best case the real cop gets outed on top of it. Seems like a very good trade off compared to just going down without all of that. In cases like this there is often an uncontested wagon on mafia. Why do I have to explain basics like this... Wait. "If we do what you say we lynch a townie." - TMI. "Mafia survives a day." And how is it the best case if the real cop gets outed for town? This sentence only makes sense from mafia perspective. Jesus christ... You ask "why would mafia claim" and I show you why mafia would claim. And then you act all confused. Why am I even bothering with this? That's a lie. You're not answering my "Why would mafia claim when there are like 5 votes on him?" question. You are clearly saying "if we do what you say".
That is exactly what I am answering and the second sentence of your post does not contradict this in any way.
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On June 18 2017 07:25 beentheredonethat wrote:
##vote Chezitwo
yep.
So now you're voting outside of the cop/red check that you just told us to lynch
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On June 18 2017 07:05 Chezitwo wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2017 07:04 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 18 2017 07:03 VayneAuthority wrote:
the correct play here is to lynch xatalos especially after that cop claim I just come from a game where a cop claim happened and people lynched into the cop (who was VT but that's kinda missing the point) how is the correct play in claim situation to lynch the unclaimed guy The correct play is to evaluate who the scummier one is instead of blindly lynching the check.
there is a thing called claim analysis.
where you look at the situation leading up to the claim. the type of the claim. if the claim is believable. is the claiming person scummy. would he gain something as scum from claiming etc etc.
so look at his filter. look what he did today. look at what the situation d1 was.
use your head.
On June 18 2017 07:04 beentheredonethat wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2017 07:03 VayneAuthority wrote:
the correct play here is to lynch xatalos especially after that cop claim I just come from a game where a cop claim happened and people lynched into the cop (who was VT but that's kinda missing the point) how is the correct play in claim situation to lynch the unclaimed guy
that game is still ongoing stop talking about it.
On June 18 2017 07:08 beentheredonethat wrote:
this is 1:1 the discussion I had in NSM, where Vivax claimed cop and everyone lynched vivax who in the end flipped town, surprise surprise (VT, but that doesn't really matter here)
game still ongoing...
On June 18 2017 07:17 beentheredonethat wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2017 07:11 Chezitwo wrote:On June 18 2017 07:08 beentheredonethat wrote:
this is 1:1 the discussion I had in NSM, where Vivax claimed cop and everyone lynched vivax who in the end flipped town, surprise surprise (VT, but that doesn't really matter here) This anecdotal evidence is not very convincing. One day I'll understand why "lynch the cop" is better than "lynch the red-check" one day
it depends on the situation?
there is no surefire always do x.
you look at the stituation.
you look at the claiming person.
you decide if you believe the claim or not.
scum can make up anything they want.
do you blindly want to believe or look at the evidence and decide what is true?
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coindecently I find it really wierd that you're defending this guy right now BTDT
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i think the first quote was supposed to be a btdt one
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On June 18 2017 07:30 darthfoley wrote:So now you're voting outside of the cop/red check that you just told us to lynch
Yeah but I found scum :>
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On June 18 2017 07:31 disformation wrote:
i think the first quote was supposed to be a btdt one
I seriously hope so. I have a limited tolerance for stupidity and he is currently really pushing the limit in this regard.
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EPT
