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[N] TL Mafia LXXV - Page 112

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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ruXxar
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Norway5669 Posts
June 17 2017 10:37 GMT
#2221
If xatalos flips scum this game is like 99% solved.
"alright guys im claiming my role im actually politician I can manipulate a persons vote during the day phase, used it on clarity last phase and forced him to vote for HF. full role name donald trump, definitely town sided". - EBH
Chezitwo
Profile Joined January 2015
United States553 Posts
June 17 2017 10:37 GMT
#2222
On June 17 2017 19:36 disformation wrote:
sry that thing screams super desperate town trying to get one more day.

though i am slightly biased since i 100% know im 100% town n stuff. =D

????
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
June 17 2017 10:38 GMT
#2223
scum not town xD
Chezitwo
Profile Joined January 2015
United States553 Posts
June 17 2017 10:38 GMT
#2224
You mean scum? Because this redcheck is 100 % the correct play for Mafia!Xatalos.
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
June 17 2017 10:39 GMT
#2225
to hype to type! =D
ruXxar
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Norway5669 Posts
June 17 2017 10:39 GMT
#2226
On June 17 2017 19:36 disformation wrote:
sry that thing screams super desperate town trying to get one more day.

though i am slightly biased since i 100% know im 100% town n stuff. =D


???
"alright guys im claiming my role im actually politician I can manipulate a persons vote during the day phase, used it on clarity last phase and forced him to vote for HF. full role name donald trump, definitely town sided". - EBH
ruXxar
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Norway5669 Posts
June 17 2017 10:39 GMT
#2227
On June 17 2017 19:39 disformation wrote:
to hype to type! =D


ok
"alright guys im claiming my role im actually politician I can manipulate a persons vote during the day phase, used it on clarity last phase and forced him to vote for HF. full role name donald trump, definitely town sided". - EBH
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
June 17 2017 10:40 GMT
#2228
On June 17 2017 19:35 disformation wrote:
got any crumbs?
why claim so early in the game and not try to case me to get more info/reactions before claiming midday?

technically i suppose it is not impossible for there to be a framer or some stuff


I suppose you could theoretically be another unaware Miller, or there could even be a Framer role. The odds aren't good at all though in either case.

I didn't make any posts on the purpose of claiming my check (or role), since there are always risks. I think my play has been very similar to how I played as Cop last time though (including the EOD D1 events) - can't remember the name now but I can dig it up. Didn't really crumb there either, but my checks were successes either way.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
ruXxar
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Norway5669 Posts
June 17 2017 10:42 GMT
#2229
Xatalos, ignoring your red check, who would you have lynched today?
"alright guys im claiming my role im actually politician I can manipulate a persons vote during the day phase, used it on clarity last phase and forced him to vote for HF. full role name donald trump, definitely town sided". - EBH
Chezitwo
Profile Joined January 2015
United States553 Posts
June 17 2017 10:42 GMT
#2230
On June 17 2017 19:40 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 17 2017 19:35 disformation wrote:
got any crumbs?
why claim so early in the game and not try to case me to get more info/reactions before claiming midday?

technically i suppose it is not impossible for there to be a framer or some stuff


I suppose you could theoretically be another unaware Miller, or there could even be a Framer role. The odds aren't good at all though in either case.

I didn't make any posts on the purpose of claiming my check (or role), since there are always risks. I think my play has been very similar to how I played as Cop last time though (including the EOD D1 events) - can't remember the name now but I can dig it up. Didn't really crumb there either, but my checks were successes either way.

Weren't people calling for a vigshot on you? I did not read very closely yesterday but I seem to remember it this way. Seems more than just risky.
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
June 17 2017 10:42 GMT
#2231
On June 17 2017 19:35 ruXxar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 17 2017 19:33 Xatalos wrote:
On June 17 2017 19:31 Chezitwo wrote:
Sadly it could be more believable if you weren't the designated lynch, Mr. Xatalos.


Well, I'm already dead by N2 regardless. I'm content even if disfo gets lynched tomorrow - of course today would be preferable so scum would use a kill on me instead.


Heres the thing.

Lynching you and having you flip as either alignment is going to give us more information than disfo flipping as scum.



Does it really? If disfo flips scum (very likely), then I die N2, it seems like the optimal situation info-wise. Even if I'm lying, it'd be apparent soon enough so makes no difference for vote information. In any case it's not too bad even if I do get lynched now I guess.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
ruXxar
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Norway5669 Posts
June 17 2017 10:43 GMT
#2232
On June 17 2017 19:42 Chezitwo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 17 2017 19:40 Xatalos wrote:
On June 17 2017 19:35 disformation wrote:
got any crumbs?
why claim so early in the game and not try to case me to get more info/reactions before claiming midday?

technically i suppose it is not impossible for there to be a framer or some stuff


I suppose you could theoretically be another unaware Miller, or there could even be a Framer role. The odds aren't good at all though in either case.

I didn't make any posts on the purpose of claiming my check (or role), since there are always risks. I think my play has been very similar to how I played as Cop last time though (including the EOD D1 events) - can't remember the name now but I can dig it up. Didn't really crumb there either, but my checks were successes either way.

Weren't people calling for a vigshot on you? I did not read very closely yesterday but I seem to remember it this way. Seems more than just risky.


Yeah, DF called for a vigshot on xata.
"alright guys im claiming my role im actually politician I can manipulate a persons vote during the day phase, used it on clarity last phase and forced him to vote for HF. full role name donald trump, definitely town sided". - EBH
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
June 17 2017 10:44 GMT
#2233
xata was 100% the correct vig shot last night
ruXxar
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Norway5669 Posts
June 17 2017 10:46 GMT
#2234
On June 17 2017 19:42 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 17 2017 19:35 ruXxar wrote:
On June 17 2017 19:33 Xatalos wrote:
On June 17 2017 19:31 Chezitwo wrote:
Sadly it could be more believable if you weren't the designated lynch, Mr. Xatalos.


Well, I'm already dead by N2 regardless. I'm content even if disfo gets lynched tomorrow - of course today would be preferable so scum would use a kill on me instead.


Heres the thing.

Lynching you and having you flip as either alignment is going to give us more information than disfo flipping as scum.



Does it really? If disfo flips scum (very likely), then I die N2, it seems like the optimal situation info-wise. Even if I'm lying, it'd be apparent soon enough so makes no difference for vote information. In any case it's not too bad even if I do get lynched now I guess.


I already made a case for why you can't be the same alignment.

On June 17 2017 18:33 ruXxar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 16 2017 03:37 Koshi wrote:
Koshi (5): Holyflare, disformation, beentheredonethat, annul, ruXxar
ruXxar (3): Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Vivax

There is at least 2 probably 3 mafia in these 9 players and I am pretty sure it isn't ruXxar. So 3 in 7. And I am pretty sure it isn't Vivax or fefe. So that's 3 in 5. Doesn't get easier than that.

Show nested quote +
On June 16 2017 03:39 Koshi wrote:
And both disfo and btdt are doing this same thing of not fully committing to scumread me but do it meh meh. I think btdt is more likely mafia over disfo though. Probably not both. And then HF is without doubt pushing mafia agenda the most this game. What a scrub cuz he is more likely town.


Here's two posts of koshi that he made early.

Looking at this list, and knowing that koshi is town, I would assume that there is definitely some mafia on the koshi train.
I mean, Holyflare is like the EASIEST guy to sheep. If holy flare makes a push on someone, it's so easy to just ride on the back of his arguments and let him do all the job.

Knowing that, I think koshi is right.

There is one mafia here:

Koshi (5): Holyflare, disformation, beentheredonethat, annul, ruXxar
ruXxar (3): Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Vivax

Also notice that there was two town wagons going.
That means that mafia has no reason to pile up together, they rather split up to reduce risk.



Now here's another tidbit I want to throw out there.

Theres no way that xatalos and disformation are scum together.
Here's why:

Look at this vote.
Koshi is sitting comfortably in the lead as town, mafia are happy.
Xatalos has 3 votes, but is not directly in danger yet.

Show nested quote +
On June 16 2017 02:09 Half the Sky wrote:
Vote Count - Day 1


Koshi (5): Holyflare, disformation, beentheredonethat, Vivax, annul, ruXxar, Vivax
ruXxar (3): Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Vivax
Xatalos (3): darthfoley, Koshi, Skynx
raynpelikoneet (1): Xatalos, sicklucker, Tumblewood
marvellosity (1): Koshi, Tumblewood
sicklucker (1): Palmar
Palmar (0): Koshi, Skynx
beentheredonethat (0): Koshi
Eversince (0): sicklucker

Not voted (8): Rels, Damdred, VayneAuthority, raynpelikoneet, AMG, marvellosity, Grackaroni, Eversince


So what happens next?

Show nested quote +
On June 16 2017 03:37 disformation wrote:
##unvote
##vote Xatalos


The vote situation ends up like this:

Show nested quote +
On June 16 2017 03:58 Half the Sky wrote:
Vote Count - Day 1


Xatalos (4): darthfoley, Koshi, Skynx, disformation
Koshi (3): Holyflare, disformation, beentheredonethat, Vivax, annul, ruXxar, Vivax
annul (3): sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast
ruXxar (2): Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Vivax
marvellosity (1): Koshi, Tumblewood
sicklucker (1): Palmar
Tumblewood (0): ruXxar
Palmar (0): sicklucker
raynpelikoneet (0): Xatalos, sicklucker, Tumblewood
Palmar (0): Koshi, Skynx
beentheredonethat (0): Koshi
Eversince (0): sicklucker

Not voted (8): Rels, Damdred, VayneAuthority, raynpelikoneet, AMG, marvellosity, Grackaroni, Eversince


There is no way Disformation would do this to his buddy xatalos

So the conclusion is this.

If Xatalos is mafia, then Disformation is town.

I'm very confident in this finding.


"alright guys im claiming my role im actually politician I can manipulate a persons vote during the day phase, used it on clarity last phase and forced him to vote for HF. full role name donald trump, definitely town sided". - EBH
Chezitwo
Profile Joined January 2015
United States553 Posts
June 17 2017 10:47 GMT
#2235
On June 17 2017 19:42 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 17 2017 19:35 ruXxar wrote:
On June 17 2017 19:33 Xatalos wrote:
On June 17 2017 19:31 Chezitwo wrote:
Sadly it could be more believable if you weren't the designated lynch, Mr. Xatalos.


Well, I'm already dead by N2 regardless. I'm content even if disfo gets lynched tomorrow - of course today would be preferable so scum would use a kill on me instead.


Heres the thing.

Lynching you and having you flip as either alignment is going to give us more information than disfo flipping as scum.



Does it really? If disfo flips scum (very likely), then I die N2, it seems like the optimal situation info-wise. Even if I'm lying, it'd be apparent soon enough so makes no difference for vote information. In any case it's not too bad even if I do get lynched now I guess.

Can you walk me through your rationale for your check?
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
June 17 2017 10:48 GMT
#2236
On June 17 2017 19:42 ruXxar wrote:
Xatalos, ignoring your red check, who would you have lynched today?


I'm not 100% sure since my reading of filters / even the thread generally has been lackluster this game (unfortunately very busy in real life for a change). Ignoring the use of my check as a tool, I guess I would have looked at ruxxar or rayn again after the lynch. Then I started thinking more about disfo since he had voted me, didn't really do much worthwhile despite the activity and was slipping by unnoticed. So I might have looked at him more too, but he was more of a ??? read so I decided to just check it.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
June 17 2017 10:49 GMT
#2237
On June 17 2017 19:47 Chezitwo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 17 2017 19:42 Xatalos wrote:
On June 17 2017 19:35 ruXxar wrote:
On June 17 2017 19:33 Xatalos wrote:
On June 17 2017 19:31 Chezitwo wrote:
Sadly it could be more believable if you weren't the designated lynch, Mr. Xatalos.


Well, I'm already dead by N2 regardless. I'm content even if disfo gets lynched tomorrow - of course today would be preferable so scum would use a kill on me instead.


Heres the thing.

Lynching you and having you flip as either alignment is going to give us more information than disfo flipping as scum.



Does it really? If disfo flips scum (very likely), then I die N2, it seems like the optimal situation info-wise. Even if I'm lying, it'd be apparent soon enough so makes no difference for vote information. In any case it's not too bad even if I do get lynched now I guess.

Can you walk me through your rationale for your check?


I guess I already kind of answered that the last post?
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
disformation
Profile Joined July 2009
Germany8352 Posts
June 17 2017 10:51 GMT
#2238
mh actually i dont think a framer would frame me.
or a cop would check me over like tw or one of the inactives.
Xatalos
Profile Joined January 2011
Finland9675 Posts
June 17 2017 10:51 GMT
#2239
On June 17 2017 19:42 Chezitwo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 17 2017 19:40 Xatalos wrote:
On June 17 2017 19:35 disformation wrote:
got any crumbs?
why claim so early in the game and not try to case me to get more info/reactions before claiming midday?

technically i suppose it is not impossible for there to be a framer or some stuff


I suppose you could theoretically be another unaware Miller, or there could even be a Framer role. The odds aren't good at all though in either case.

I didn't make any posts on the purpose of claiming my check (or role), since there are always risks. I think my play has been very similar to how I played as Cop last time though (including the EOD D1 events) - can't remember the name now but I can dig it up. Didn't really crumb there either, but my checks were successes either way.

Weren't people calling for a vigshot on you? I did not read very closely yesterday but I seem to remember it this way. Seems more than just risky.


I suppose it wasn't impossible I might have been shot. It wasn't for sure there even was a Vig though, and no way in hell would scum shoot me, and the optimal Vig shot would have been more in the direction of the AFK lurkers than just killing for info, so I wasn't too worried. If I had claimed / crumbed noticeably in the night, the odds of being shot/roleblocked would have increased instead.
"The opportunity to secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself." - Sun Tzu
Chezitwo
Profile Joined January 2015
United States553 Posts
June 17 2017 10:52 GMT
#2240
On June 17 2017 19:49 Xatalos wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 17 2017 19:47 Chezitwo wrote:
On June 17 2017 19:42 Xatalos wrote:
On June 17 2017 19:35 ruXxar wrote:
On June 17 2017 19:33 Xatalos wrote:
On June 17 2017 19:31 Chezitwo wrote:
Sadly it could be more believable if you weren't the designated lynch, Mr. Xatalos.


Well, I'm already dead by N2 regardless. I'm content even if disfo gets lynched tomorrow - of course today would be preferable so scum would use a kill on me instead.


Heres the thing.

Lynching you and having you flip as either alignment is going to give us more information than disfo flipping as scum.



Does it really? If disfo flips scum (very likely), then I die N2, it seems like the optimal situation info-wise. Even if I'm lying, it'd be apparent soon enough so makes no difference for vote information. In any case it's not too bad even if I do get lynched now I guess.

Can you walk me through your rationale for your check?


I guess I already kind of answered that the last post?

Kind of.
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