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Shin Megami Tensei: The Devil Inside Mafia - Page 5

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
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Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 17 2016 20:58 GMT
#873
GlowingBear? Please?
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 17 2016 21:03 GMT
#884
And this is why you don't do stupid things when no one has any clue what is going on
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 17 2016 21:04 GMT
#887
Rsoultin, do you believe my Palmar read now?
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 17 2016 21:10 GMT
#901
On February 18 2016 06:07 Eden1892 wrote:
Oops.

My bad reason, should anybody care, is that I'm used to Palmar caring out his early strong scum reads, and actively pushing them in the thread.

There were obviously reasons to think this didn't per se mean anything this time, but it seemed good enough to consolidate under.
I mean, that's not a bad reason. That's a pretty good reason. But when both of the top lynch candidates claim blue and there are six different lynch targets, I wish you would move to cut losses instead of trying to be a hero
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 17 2016 21:12 GMT
#904
On February 18 2016 05:57 Eden1892 wrote:
I switched to Palmar for bad reasons but idgaf
Eden, why didn't you share your reason or make any posts between this post and after the deadline?
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 17 2016 21:18 GMT
#917
On February 18 2016 06:14 Shapelog wrote:
I guess we can assume that at least one mafia was on the lynch then?
If that is true (which who knows) That would mean either, me, TT, Eden or Tumble is mafia.
Given that 11 players were voted for across the day, this statement is by definition correct

Oh wait, you mean the wagon. I mean, mafia does have incentive to lynch Palmar, because Palmar is a pretty good player, but assumptions like this don't serve much purpose IMO.

I don't like Tictock's vote on Palmar though, I'm not convinced that he actually cared between Palmar and scott31337. Since he was strongly townreading me earlier, and his reason for lynching Palmar was that I would be mafia by association, this seems suspect to me.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 17 2016 21:24 GMT
#926
Yeah, scott31337 being town is a very real possibility. I do think that vote count analysis is still useful, just not as straight forward as "he lynched scum, so he's town, and he lynched town, so he's scum!" (though it never is, anyway).

Mafia didn't care so much about the lynch, but secretly, they probably wanted Palmar lynched, because he's a player they'd probably have to night kill in the near-ish future. So mafia is probably in players who weren't directly influencing the lynch, and/or players who were not obstructing to lightly supporting the Palmar lynch. Checking read development for these things should be telling.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 17 2016 21:32 GMT
#939
On February 18 2016 06:29 Eden1892 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 18 2016 06:12 Trfel wrote:
On February 18 2016 05:57 Eden1892 wrote:
I switched to Palmar for bad reasons but idgaf
Eden, why didn't you share your reason or make any posts between this post and after the deadline?

I mean you see that :57 right? My phone actually registered 2:59 when I switched vote. I thought that post might not beat the deadline... I thought it better to be certain I announced my switch pre-deadline instead of trying to explain and missing
My bad, I screwed up my timestamps and thought you switched your vote like 10+ minutes before the deadline ><

You're fine then, I guess.

I really don't know about Tumblewood, the post length thing is just so strong.

Anyway, Breshke and rsoultin are town.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 17 2016 22:01 GMT
#969
I'm fine with GB being mafia.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 18 2016 00:04 GMT
#981
No, scott31337, you're not under a mountain of suspicion. Most of us admit that we have basically no clue who is mafia.

To be honest, that's probably even worse.

If you could explain your read progression on Breshke and why you ended up voting for GlowingBear instead, that would be nice, though.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 18 2016 00:33 GMT
#983
Tumblewood, can you please describe your read progression on Palmar?
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 18 2016 00:40 GMT
#986
ROFL

The Shining, how's that scumread going?
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 18 2016 01:30 GMT
#994
Nooniansoong, you said that you were okay with lynching Palmar despite thinking that he is town. Please explain why you were okay with this?
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 18 2016 01:40 GMT
#995
One Sentence Reads

Tictock is town because overall, his play seems involved and has a definite direction, despite a weaker End of Day.
Tumblewood is town because his posting style is much more carefree and conversational than his mafia game, and because he's putting in a lot of effort, as shown by his written notes.
Breshke is town because he didn't kill Palmar, despite Palmar having a strong suspicion of him, and he's been sharing sensible thoughts.
Nooniansoong is maybe mafia because of his lack of caring about the lynch (being willing to lynch Palmar while townreading him), and his GlowingBear read doesn't feel genuine.
The Shining is maybe mafia because he can't possibly think that Tumblewood is mafia after those pictures that Tumblewood posted.
Eden1892 is town because he got angry early on in a really towny way.
Rsoultin is town because she didn't lynch Palmar, despite having plenty of justification to do so, and for a relatively large post count, despite saying she'd be lazy.

Any comments are more than welcome. I'm fairly confident in the town reads, not so confident on the scum reads, largely no opinion on people not on the list.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 18 2016 02:13 GMT
#1000
GlowingBear, no idea. I really don't like your off-wagon vote, though, but I don't think that's enough reason to scumread you. You actually did feel quite invested in the nooniansoong wagon. I'm still pretty unhappy with my read on you in Outlaw Mafia, though, I'll probably just sheep rsoultin on you if I'm not confident (which I won't be).

The Shining, I did meta read you a bit, but in this case the off-wagon "push" for Tumblewood feels more important.

And I know that my scum reads aren't the best I'll be pretty happy if one is correct.

The difference between GlowingBear and The Shining is that GlowingBear's push makes some sense, while The Shining's doesn't, GlowingBear seemed to care about it while The Shining didn't, and The Shining had more opportunities to be inspiring while I'm not really sure what he's done this game, other than his Tumblewood suspicion. The only real reason I have to townread The Shining is meta, based on both post length (shorter posts = town) and his anger at being scumread.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 18 2016 03:59 GMT
#1011
The Shining:

Can you please explain your scumread on Tumblewood again? Like, why did you initially read him as mafia?

I've looked through your filter and I'm still having trouble understanding this, sorry. I'm not seeing what your argument is.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 18 2016 04:00 GMT
#1012
On February 18 2016 12:40 The Shining wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 18 2016 12:14 nooniansoong wrote:
On February 18 2016 11:50 The Shining wrote:
On February 18 2016 11:32 nooniansoong wrote:
scumlist
ticktock
GB
scott
breshke
rsoul


Hmmm. Hypothetical. You have a gun. Who do you shoot?

Probably Scott. I'm a believer in shooting inactive people.


So why didn't you vote Scott over GB? Did you already go over this?
Hrmph, fine, you're probably town

Doesn't mean I have to like it, though
+ Show Spoiler +
Not that I don't like you, just that I would like to know who is mafia so I can look really impressive, is all
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 18 2016 04:17 GMT
#1014
On February 18 2016 13:11 The Shining wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 18 2016 12:59 Trfel wrote:
The Shining:

Can you please explain your scumread on Tumblewood again? Like, why did you initially read him as mafia?

I've looked through your filter and I'm still having trouble understanding this, sorry. I'm not seeing what your argument is.


Tldr: I found his first unexplained reads post weird. I like explanations. He accused Shapelog of meta reading him off of one game and that it was bad, but then he does the same thing to Shape before the blue claim. He has Palmar on a bad d1 lynch list but then lynches Palmar. He accused me of not existing d1 but then managed to disappear himself for a while.

I'll be honest, though, this read is losing a bit of steam after rereading those notes. His scum list is a bit funky, though, since I don't think GB and SL can be scum together here
I'll take a look at those things later. Thanks for answering.

Anyway, I'm really liking that point that you brought up about nooniansoong.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 18 2016 04:47 GMT
#1017
Rsoultin, what? You changed your GlowingBear read?

Don't get this wrong, you know I'll actually listen to you this time...

Also, I didn't change my read on Tumblewood based on the pictures.

Why do GlowingBear and Tumblewood being town make you think that scott31337 is town? I don't get it.
Trfel
Profile Joined August 2011
7015 Posts
February 18 2016 06:23 GMT
#1028
Is it bad that I'm being all paranoid now? I think it is bad

Anyway, ignoring feelings of paranoia.... I thought of something else about Scott. On phone, about to sleep but here goes. If I remember this wrong then this argument is invalid

Scott came back and said wagons town vs town, and said that scum is going to lynch him next

However, if it's town vs town, the first thing I would blame is town for being bad and making it town vs town. It's generally town vs scum when scum is actually making the ml happen
Thks makes sxotts post seem a bit faked

Scott being scum doesn't make tko much sense wktb a few of my other trs like rsoultin is saying so I'm not sure which one is right
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