Ok before I talk about scum I want to go over who I think is lock town atm.
For me it's these 3 people.
Gigas: Slowly but surely this guy has been changing my mind since D1. He's been active despite posting excuses to not be and while he hasn't made a great deal of reads he's been careful about the reads he does have. It was his responses to Shapes case that really have me convinced he is town though. He pointed out the errors in Shapes math and was generally against the case, and even though he eventually changed his mind and now thinks I am scum he was not willing to lynch me over Vivax.
Onegu (aka Sukrit): So obviously town, I really felt this D1 granted he's slacked off a bit since then I still think this is true. It's not exactly easy to read Onegu, but when he is town he generally does w/e the hell he wants until it is MyLo/LyLo and then he tries to bring his A game. His vote D2 on Koshi falls into the "doing what he wants" which is quite often poking at Koshi for reactions, but I think you can already see his reactions picking up again now that we are in LyLo. There's another reason why Onegu is lock town for me, but I'll get to that later.
LS: Weakest of my townreads atm. His overall attitude has been carefree and relaxed. He voted for me rather quickly yesterday, but then what town doesn't put faith in an unCC'd blue claim like that? There are weaker reasons such as Meta to read LS as town here, but it's both his tone and lack of pushing a solid agenda that have me convinced.
This leaves me with Damdred, Tubesock, and Shapelog as possible scum.
Tube made the claim that he got a candy and from it was able to rolecheck someone, for whatever reason he picked Vivax, and got the result that Vivax is RB. It's been brought up a few times, but this claim is literally the easiest thing to do as scum since he would already know Vivax's role. Still the question then becomes, why bother claiming then rather than simply pushing Vivax? If Tube were scum here and wanted to make a fakeclaim wouldn't he have chosen a differn't target to try and push scum onto and secure the win? Why prolong the game by outing a teammate rather than make a fakeclaim about a towny and try to get the mislynch?
So initial conclusion about Tube: Possible scum, but unlikely.
Shape has been a solid townread of mine all game. He is also the only person to have claimed blue, however his claim is that I visited Kush N2. Since I got a VT role PM there can only be 2 possibilities about Shape. 1) He is scum fakeclaiming 2) He is town, and the tracker and I either got screwed over by being one of multiple wanderers or possibly somehow was forced to visit the KP target by a candy. Given that he is unCC'd and that I've been pretty convinced Shape is town all game #2 was the initial conclusion I came to. Now that I've done my own checking about setup I see that this is the far less likely option and I was a fool to believe it so easily.
So Shape is probably mafia.
Damdred was another person I was townreading at the start of this cycle, but I'm now convinced that I've been even more naive about him than shape. I was giving him way too much credit for the D1 shenannie onto Vivax, it seems like something that scum would never bother to do, but then that also makes it a nice and easy thing as scum to look more towny. Besides if you look at Damdred's D2 you will notice he hardly even bothers to mention Vivax even though he is very wishy washy about the lynch on Rels. Damdred has been pretty hit and miss all game, but his play suddenly gets a lot more involved as soon as Shape makes his claim and is pushing me.
Damdred is almost certainly mafia here. He is the one I've been making a case on and is my preferred lynch tomorrow.
Those are just my current reads on people, none of that is what I've been talking about that I was working on before I had my power issues.
I'm sure I'm never getting night killed this game, but I still thought I should share my reads before Daypost just in case.
I'll be trying to pickup the pieces of my old case on Damdred, but might take the opportunity to reread and double check things a little before posting it (so don't expect it right after Daypost, sometime tonight though for sure).
I look forward to a day full of people voting me, and possibly largely ignoring most of what I have to say.
After all.. Tis the season! Happy Holidays everyone!
I was thinking about the candy and setup stuff a lot yesterday.
Given that we only know of 2 candies being claimed I'm starting to wonder how many were held by the townies who got mislynched or NK'd at the start of the game.
The extra KP for mafia N2 might not have been the only present they got, and it's also quite possible that town lost a fair few extra actions being carried by GB, Rit, Rels, Koshi, or Kush.
This is ofc assuming that the candy is lost on death not RNG'd back into the game. I think we'd know if the latter were the case though.
Because TT didn't even talked about The Dumbtell i been talking about all game. For both days. He usually has been jumping on my stuff and this was before i got drunk. Weird isn't it he doesn't jump on this?
On December 19 2015 07:58 Vivax wrote: Sukrit is mafia boys
You are disgusting
YOu will have to believe me
You realize I am onegu right???
I said last night that i thought this was a dumbtell and neither Onegu or TT commented on it. And why would you as scum? someone who is everywhere on everyones list and even says "its is prob. Tinfoil", easy to slide under the Radar.
It makes sense for Vixax to go after Onegu. As he just going to die, no one thinks that he would point to his mafia buddy? Well i did (I also think Damdred did but what ever)
At this point, and just seeing TT's town read for him. His point is "Onegu wants reactions" I feel like this is a second hand reasons to lynch people. Considering the fact that Onegu "isn't reading my post" it seems impossible to fucking see someones reaction.
So my scum team is TT/Onegu
Eh I am prob. going to die (wait no i am not, that would be dumb as mafia meh) because they think i might be lieing about being a one shot. idk, doubt it though.
LS is prob. getting the boot also. since he fits mafia killing pattern of second hand towns (do not ask me what the fuck i mean, if u been reading the game u should know what i mean by this)
You know what? Since TT said if someone gets healed and we have a Mislynch to Lynch him. I will Give the same offer, If we have a mislynch aviable, and i am not dead, Go ahead and lynch. My one shot is used, and it will cement the fact that i am one Shot Tracker thingy
Also factor in the fact Onegu has been picking the easiest person to scum read all game (except Vivax duh) to call scum. Also he was not the only person not to want to vote Vixax day one, I didn't as well. Blah
@ Onegu, How the fuck is it impossible to have a watcher with 2 wanders? Are u smoking shit. Also can't wait to play Student mafia with you. Hopefully when i die and you see that i am blue, You can understand my shit and not call me scum without anything to prove it other then fake claiming.
Oh yeah, TT said the same thing about fake claiming right after Onegu did. Hmmm another point for team Ticknegu
I Ship it.
Last post because blah blah blah. I love how i have a 17-18 page filter with 5 post restriction. Thankfully i worked it out (with sky) and this is my last post.
On December 23 2015 07:49 Shapelog wrote: TT and Onegu
Because TT didn't even talked about The Dumbtell i been talking about all game. For both days. He usually has been jumping on my stuff and this was before i got drunk. Weird isn't it he doesn't jump on this?
On December 19 2015 07:58 Vivax wrote: Sukrit is mafia boys
You are disgusting
YOu will have to believe me
You realize I am onegu right???
I said last night that i thought this was a dumbtell and neither Onegu or TT commented on it. And why would you as scum? someone who is everywhere on everyones list and even says "its is prob. Tinfoil", easy to slide under the Radar.
I don't have a clue what you mean here. Who is dumbtelling?
Why does either me or Onegu commenting about about this mean anything?
EPT
