III Titanic Mini Mafia: MS Paint Edition - Page 9

On March 20 2014 00:10 Giggletummy wrote:
Crap. Gotta love getting pulled away while writing up a case and then never delivering. Posting what I had, tacking on crappy conclusion, then catching up.


Step 1: Original posts on DP + Show Spoiler +
First bit is trolly. The last couple posts are either intending to draw a reaction from DP, start the game rolling, all that good jazz (townie), or are bad reasons to call someone mafia.

Asstons of people push RNG lynch and never do it. People talk policy and never do it. People say LAL and never do it. People call for policy lynches or not policy lynches of specific players all the time and never do either. Nobody, nobody is mafia for the specific reason that they think hydras are good as town and bad as scum but then votes to lynch them, in opposition to what is basically a one-liner in another game with a stupid policy comment.

So either he's trying to draw reactions or he's got really questionable logic.

Step 2: Flare pushes forward + Show Spoiler +
Flare still has DP mafia, and makes a good point about overdefensiveness after being called out. If he was fishing for reactions/trying to get game rolling, he hit something and ran with it. Keep that in mind.

However, the hopeless bit here is poop soup. In response to hopeless not jumping to vote DP and noting that Flare bussed a teammates in Cultured, Flare argues that hopeless is also mafia because, essentially, if Flare was town he's had good reads in the past and therefore must be right on DP, and if Flare is scum then he's got to be bussing DP. Either way, DP is scum, and so Hopeless should be agreeing with Flare, or at least voting DP - it's a good read or a bus.

The poop soupy part is that this statement is based on that idea that bussing one guy in one game = always bus never not bus. I have never seen anyone do that. Seriously look at this. Flare calls hopeless mafia based on reasoning that says "you said I bussed a guy one time, therefore you should be thinking I always and only bus teammates, and so my target has to be scum."

Again, either Flare is doubling down and really trying to draw out reactions from more people now or he's got really really really really really questionable logic.

Step 3: Followup

I'm not, ya big dingus. I asked Flare for his current thoughts about DP because, again, I don't know what Flare's agenda is early. That's why I wanted a current read. I expect either:

(1) I was fishing for a reaction. I got a scummy one. Therefore, DP is scum. He's done some stuff since, but I don't care, original reasons stand. (See this post, which is why I marked it - + Show Spoiler +

(2) I thought he was scummy at the start, then he's done x and y, so now I've altered my read a little bit. Shows Flare thinking about the thread, actually updating his read with whatever DP does, generally trying to figure out someone's alignment without knowing it.

(3) Tunnel city without going back and discussing fishing/whatever.



Think of Flare's suspicion of DP as a building that Flare is constructing. Flare built one good story of the building up high, noting that DP never followed up the hopeless questions.

But the bottom of the building was constructed poorly, it doesn't bear the weight of the top. His initial DP suspicion is for a strange policy/hydra reason that I don't think has anything to do with alignments. He added a suspicion of hopeless based off the idea that hopeless should be thinking that Flare busses everyone always. He built his early game out of bad suspicions.

When Flare returned to thread with nothing but more reasons why DP is mafia and only mafia, it showed me that he was just piling on and on, building off this very early suspicion that shouldn't have been legitimate. The fact that I think the bit about DP never following on hopeless questions is immaterial to a read on Flare. Whether Flare is town or mafia, he needs to be finding things that DP has done that are scummy to push his read. It's not like mafia Flare would only be presenting crappy reasons, he has to find something decent to push.

On March 20 2014 01:55 Hopeless1der wrote:

No good answer atm. I wouldnt lynch Holy but I dont like him much.

Giggles:

I want this followup

On March 20 2014 06:03 Hopeless1der wrote:

i really like this point. I also want an excuse to not sheep palmar or rayn for the lulz