Newbie Mini Mafia XLIX - Page 2

onlywonderboy

United States23745 Posts

October 18 2013 04:23 GMT

#518

Good point, they could have killed a different active player and still drew heat away from themselves. I think I just tunnel visioned on it being the obvious play, when the obvious play might have very well been the best play.

onlywonderboy

United States23745 Posts

October 18 2013 04:28 GMT

#520

Right, right. I'm going to bed now but I'll make an effort to post something of substance tomorrow (hopefully well before the voting deadline)

onlywonderboy

United States23745 Posts

October 18 2013 15:39 GMT

#543

I'm pretty suspicious of SagaZ at this point. He very well have been busy, but coming back to make one impassioned post doesn't clear him in my eyes. I'm interested to see if he's able to participate in any of the conversations going on around lynching time. That's generally where a lot of useful information comes out. Although it seems we are going pretty much all in on nyx at this point. Which, I don't have an issue voting for nyx (I think he's kind of scummy), but I don't want to start the bandwagon too early when new information may come to light. And of course I disagree with SagaZ's analysis of me. I find it so weird he can say all my posts have been useless when Seuss is claiming they are pretty good, just not a lot of them. I find it interesting they can have such different opinions on my posts.

onlywonderboy

United States23745 Posts

October 18 2013 16:16 GMT

#556

On October 19 2013 00:53 SagaZ wrote:
@onlywonderboy:
I accused you of not saying anything constructive, and being the yes man of seuss to appeal to him.
this last post you give us: You're suspicious of me, the only one that makes a case about you. you hope to get info, nice. you jump on the nyx train. and you go back to seuss said that so he has to be right.
At this point I can't understand how you do it to slip under the radar so well, but maybe this will get some concrete posts from you:
##Vote onlywonderboy

This post actually makes me believe SagaZ is town. He's right, I've been been way too quiet and have been coasting for most of this game. I've been quick to follow Seuss because he's town and I know he's an incredibly analytic thinker, but that's way too passive play and doesn't really do much to help the town. I tried to get some discussion going with differentiating the mafia/SK kill, but that broke down quick and it turned out I was likely wrong. Honestly I'm as surprised as him I'm flown under the radar and really that's just bad play on my part. I'm still working on rereading the pages to try and get more scum tells, but I can at least put forth I think SagaZ is town based off this post.

onlywonderboy

United States23745 Posts

October 18 2013 16:47 GMT

#565

Alright, fuck this, I'm going aggro in my next post.

onlywonderboy

United States23745 Posts

October 18 2013 17:20 GMT

#567

I think a possible mafia combination is July/nyx/x. It seems unlikely to have two mafia players lurking so much, but they could easily be relying on the third mafia player to be the active face of their team. Nyx came under a lot of suspicion based on the way his voting went down (switching to Vonith for little reason and then him turning town). Plus him and July were getting pressured heavily by Odin. July actually goes out of his way to defend nyx's vote because it would be a bad play for the mafia. I mean, in a vacuum it makes him look suspicious, but the bandwagon on that vote was pretty strong maybe they thought it wouldn't be too hard to hide among the other townie voters. Also there is the possibility nyx could act as a martyr for the an active mafia player to gain tons of credibility in the town. I mean clearly it's not the cleanest play on the mafia's part, but having two players come under suspicion by Odin early could definitely make them panic.

It's certainly a different theory than most people have brought up, but even if I'm wrong the conversation that spawns around it can certainly be valuable.

onlywonderboy

United States23745 Posts

October 18 2013 17:59 GMT

#573

I definitely felt a similar sense of helplessness when I played my first game. I mean I realize we shouldn't just believe him because he says he's not mafia, but speaking from personal experience I know it's very possible for this type of thing to happen for someone playing town in their first game.

So let's entertain the idea that nyx is possibly a player new to the game that dug himself a hole that he can't get out of. Are there any other potential targets that we would be comfortable going for, or is there just no other possible option?

onlywonderboy

United States23745 Posts

October 18 2013 18:01 GMT

#574

@Balla, I think you're underestimating the difference between a player's first game and their second game. Again, it doesn't completely exonerate nyx by any means, but I know I definitely feel WAY more comfortable this game than I did last game.

onlywonderboy

United States23745 Posts

October 18 2013 22:35 GMT

#609

nyx switched to balla right before he left, so it's possible to move our efforts there. That said I'd rather go nyx over balla if those are our two options. While I sympathize with nyx if he's being honest with his frustration, I'm trying not to cloud my judgement in case he's just using that as a cover. I still like July as an option. He was pressured early and he hasn't really said much as of late (no concrete defense). Also, since Balla has started the official votes on July, if he flips town it means Balla will have to defend himself or be seen as mafia.

onlywonderboy

United States23745 Posts

October 18 2013 22:47 GMT

#614

##vote July617

Well then, might as well make it offical

onlywonderboy

United States23745 Posts

October 18 2013 23:10 GMT

#622

Yeah. I certainly wish there was a lot more certainty in the vote, but what are you gonna do? These are the cards we've been dealt at the moment. I've pretty comfortable with July right now, you disagree Suess?

onlywonderboy

United States23745 Posts

October 18 2013 23:18 GMT

#626

That's fine by me. I'm fine with going for nyx. If july gets mod killer and flips town we can focus on balla.

onlywonderboy

United States23745 Posts

October 18 2013 23:20 GMT

#628

That sucks, but there's not much we can do about that :/

onlywonderboy

United States23745 Posts

October 19 2013 02:36 GMT

#675

I tried so save nyx, I really did. I was totally right that he felt that same way I did my first game. So that means there is still a potential SK out there, so who is the main suspect now?

onlywonderboy

United States23745 Posts

October 20 2013 03:45 GMT

#695

On October 20 2013 12:43 Bereft wrote:
and good job, serial killer!

For real. SK hitting mafia is a godsend for the town.

onlywonderboy

United States23745 Posts

October 20 2013 04:03 GMT

#701

Suess dying was inevitable, he was an easy target for the mafia tonight so that isn't too shocking. If we're already talking about the next lynch, I still say we pressure July super hard. I was confidant in my vote on him and nothing has really changed my mind there. It would take a lot to convince me he's neither scum or SK.

onlywonderboy

United States23745 Posts

October 20 2013 23:11 GMT

#717

+ Show Spoiler +

On October 20 2013 15:23 Balla24 wrote:
Alright. I'm ready to make my case on OWB as SK. Other candidates include istandwithmitt, but his low post count and relative lack of care for the game make me immediately not want to look at him. When nyx flipped it made me completly re-think all my reads, because I was SOOO certain he was sk.

Point #1: Here is what initially tipped me off:

Show nested quote +

A post like this might fit other players, but with my read on OWB this doesn't fit at all. This is some serious information bias, as he's been setting this up for a while to appear more town. He says he tried to save nyx... yet... he didn't.... not at all... in fact:

Show nested quote +

Was posted right before july "defended" himself. This is the OPPOSITE of trying to save nyx... if this ain't a slip then I don't know what is.

He left his vote on July at the end of the day, but he it didn't really seem like he cared who got lynch one way or another, even though he claims to have tried to save nyx.

Here's another post that seems out of character for him:

Show nested quote +

Point #2: The SK kill N2 is GGTemplar

While yes, GGTemplar is mafia. I'm quite sure we can get more information out of this kill then just "SK wanted to kill a mafia". On day2, GGTemplar was literally the only one to mention OWB as a possible scum (I didn't check E00 but I don't really recall him accusing anybody but me). The only other person was July, but since july is under suspicion, killing him wouldn't be a good play for SK. Notice OWB's reaction to his posts that mention him by looking at owb's filter:

NADA.

He doesn't even blink. I believe that SK was less trying to target a mafia then he was trying to get the suspicions quiet. If he was trying to kill a mafia, then why wouldn't he have targetted myself or July, who were both on the verge of getting lynched whereas GGTemplar had 0 votes. You'd have to be very confident in your own reads to make a shot like that. The only person who was confident on GGTemplar was istandwithmitt, which is interesting to note if someone wants to make a case for mitt.

Point #3: Deflection

Show nested quote +

At this point, everybody was pretty sold with good reasoning on why Odin/playerboy were the mafia/sk kill respectively, IIRC. This seems like a feeble attempt to try to get people to consider more situations then what was reality. I say this because he drops it relatively quickly after Seuss refutes one of his points.

That's all i've got. I also read this:

Show nested quote +

As a soft-vigi claim originally, but the fact that there has still been no vigi kill makes me skeptical of that.

Let me know if my logic is flawed or something, but with this..

##vote: onlywonderboy

Well, guess I have some explaining to do in your eyes.

In regards to this whole nyx situation, I made it clear I didn't really want to vote nyx. I sympathized with his frustration of the game and I was right that it was very much how I felt in my first game. I made this clear by voting for July. I said I was okay with voting nyx but all I meant by that was I was fine with that town going for nyx if that's what they really wanted. You said I'm "trying to appear town," but of course I am! I still have to prove I'm town and people have been doubting me all game long.

Point two is incredibly weak. One person mentioned me as a potential scum while the rest of the players seemed to have a town read on me. Why bother responding to this one post? If other people had discussed it more I would have felt the need to defend myself, but at the time it seemed incredibly random and not worth mentioning.

Point three doesn't say much either. People were asking me to try and provide points of discussion and this theory happened to fall flat. Nothing more.

onlywonderboy

United States23745 Posts

October 21 2013 12:49 GMT

#724

I still think we should focus our efforts on july. He was under heavy suspicion during the the last lynch and has done nothing since then to legitimize himself as town other than a weak mafia read on me. At least Ballas sk theory on me took some effort.

Vote##: July615

onlywonderboy

United States23745 Posts

October 21 2013 18:30 GMT

#730

Surviving two lynches simply because other town players did a poor job of defending themselves is NOT a good defense. You could either be scum or SK, but I am almost 100% sure you are not a town player. Maybe if you had contributed something of value, but there's nothing. People called me out and I made an effort to make claims/start discussion even if there were some issues with them. All you've done is say I'm mafia "because." If we don't lynch July we are making a mistake.

onlywonderboy

United States23745 Posts

October 21 2013 18:41 GMT

#732

Just read his log, there's not a single useful town post in there. Other then him randomly focusing me even when most player thought I was town (before Balla's SK theory).

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