EPT[T] Nuclear Winter Mafia
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
| ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
| ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
For now, I'm leaning towards FirmTofu because I'd rather have Silken Tofu. Vote to get rid of FirmTofu!!! That is until Tofu shows up to defend. | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
What are Chezinu reasons for nuking Xatalos? | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
I'm going along with the johnnywup suspicion. ##Vote: johnnywup | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
On July 07 2013 10:34 TanGeng wrote: I don't see scum giving away that much information on Day 1. I'm talking about the Chezinu/Xatalos nuking and rayn series. It could factor in that we wouldn't suspect them as much because of how unlikely scum might play that way, but it's still a low probability play. | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
On July 07 2013 18:09 raynpelikoneet wrote: -snip- This is a good question and i want it answered too. Because i have not been defensive and i have not been shitting the thread. About Chezinu and his nuke: If Chezinu is town: - Nuke is real: Why would you nuke a player who is most likely town? If you think he is mafia, why would you not give reasons for your nuke? - Nuke is a dud or smth: Why would you nuke a player who is most likely town? Best case scenario is that nothing happens at the deadline, worst case scenario is town uses anti-nuke or something to stop the nuke, Chezinu get's lynched. Chezinu is crazy, but he is not stupid. Therefore i do not see a reason for him to nuke a player i see most likely to be town at this point. This also is Chezinu's nuke. If mafia used Chez's post as a cover to launch a silent nuke, he would have said that's the case already. If Chezinu is mafia: - Nuke is real and Chezinu launched it: Makes people go "no you can't be mafia for nuking at this point" like you all are. Townie dies. Profit! - Nuke is real and Chezinu's scumbuddy launched it: What i said before, but even better. If you get lynched for it, you don't lose the guy who is nuking. Double profit! - Nuke is a dud or smth: Make town to possibly waste anti-nuke or something to stop the "nuke". There are a lot of upsides in launching a nuke at this point for mafia. If Xatalos is mafia, launcing a dud nuke on your scumbuddy is brilliant. Regardless of Xatalos' affiliation you confuse the thread. There is zero benefit launching a nuke as town, even if you believed that Xatalos is mafia, all you can do is possibly fuck up town's play and sidetrack us to talk about something that is not relevant at all. Unless Chezinu outs his reasoning for nuking Xatalos, i'm keeping my vote on him. And no, insanity is not a reason. If Chezinu was Drazerk i could buy that, but he is not. He is a smart guy who is in some twisted way good at this shit. If someone disagrees with me, tell me where i am wrong. It's not that we've cleared Chezinu. In fact, he's still being looked at fairly hard. It's just that I'm not on board for immediate action. For town play, it's bad town play. But for scum play, it's bad too, because right now town has no information or leads to go on and doing this sort of thing immediately gives town a lead and potential for better analysis. At this point, I'm willing to wait for Chezinu's reasoning or for Xatalos's flip before acting on it. | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
We could either be dealing with a character that must launch a nuke every day. A second alternative is that certain nukes are ticking time bombs. The strange thing about Chezinu is that there haven't been any really helpful comments coming from the player. Maybe, there's 3rd parties with strange objectives or strange abilities? | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
So johnnywup makes too many uncharacteristic town posts to be scum. If it was only one or two, I'd have to stick with the impression that it's scumslip. However, from the opening "I don't really know the rules," to the wishy-washy follow ups, to the latest "going to look through people who are voting for me and accusing large part of them of being scum," it's just consistently bad town rather than one or two careless mistakes. I'll have to continue to watch this guy. ##unvote I guess now, I'd like to see some pressure on Chezinu, Geript, and WoS and I'd like to hear more from the inactives and Ace. | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
It just feels like geript is trying to muddy the waters with lots and lots of accusations a la: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=418049¤tpage=11#214 Then we have the double standard for mafia foreplay: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=19117518 there's plenty of wubwub to follow. Geript has been highly actively and challenging everyone. It would appear that he's going in multiple directions but always steadfast in suspicion of WoS. Because he's focused so hard on WoS, and I'm interested in what exactly the analysis is there. I'd also want to put him under scrutiny because of how much pressure he's put on others. | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
On July 08 2013 08:47 johnnywup wrote: Okay I've been semi-following the thread since earlier today but on my phone so I just recently caught up. Still not liking WoS from what I've seen. I'm going to do the MZ likely/unlikely scum thing with my reasons. It will be 1-10, with 10 being town and 1 being scum + Show Spoiler + Meapak_Ziphh - Mostly level headed, scum hunts, but his current wanting to lynch Dandel is somewhat iffy for me. I mean, I think Dandel is more scummy than most of the other inactives...but there are other actives to look at :\ I wouldn't completely oppose it though. Anyways, 6.5/10 Ace - He hasn't really done much. When I used to play mafia he was one of the more active players I seem to remember (I only played with him town I believe, I don't think I was ever scum) but this game is... nothing. I think this probably indicates just lack of interest or something rather than being scum, but I can't be sure. Can't really read anything with him, but definitely want him to be somewhat more active. 5/10 MajuGarzett - Was going to put him in "Needs to post-tier" but he recently made a large post so I'll touch on him briefly. His arguments aren't really stirring my interest. I've got a town read on Vayne. And his argument on Onegu just isn't there for me. If Onegu was scum, it seems more likely that he would wait for a reply to see if it's something people agree with. His arguments aren't very strong for me so: 4/10 Onegu - I really don't have much an opinion on Onegu. He hasn't posted anything of substance really, but he hasn't tripped any scum wires with me either. I'd like him to more actively hunt scum (and give opinions on people other than Chez) 4.5 Geript - Actively posting thoughts and reads, pushing people for answers, etc. One of the most townie people in thread IMO. 7.5/10 VayneAuthority - He leaves much to be desired for sure but he seems genuine and unafraid. I'd prefer he'd be more active but he seems townie enough. 5.5/10 StrongandBig - read his filter... 3/10 Gumshoe - He seems sort of nooby and hasn't been doing much. I don't really like his way of playing currently, but he definitely looks more nooby than scummy atm. Not sure though, he could really be either. 5/10 OriginalName - His hopping on the bandwagon for me seems to come at a perfect time for scum, I think. Additionally, he goes from voting for me to saying he'll probably hop off, all in under an hour. He just seems to be agreeing with people and not putting any additional thoughts out there...scummy as hell. 3/10 TanGeng - He also hops on my bandwagon with no reasons why, at a good time for scum. He also hasn't been scumhunting...like at all. He's just saying that other people have been doing scumhunting and he agrees. No real reads out of him. Feeling scum. 3/10 Xatalos - Hope I don't have to explain, but he's like really townie. 9/10 Alakaslam - Active as fuck pregame, less active during the game but okay. His "martyring" was a little strange but I don't really think anything of it. He needs to post more of his thoughts though. He really has been just sliding by without saying much, which seems scummy but eh I dunno. Seems more scummy than towny. 4/10 WaveofShadow - Active as fuck when tunneling me but goes a lot more inactive when the bandwagon starts to fall off. Then he discards his bandwagon as "eh, he's probably town, whatever". Since then, he hasn't done much, hiding under the shadows sharing no opinions...But I have to admit that there are probably better options. 4/10 raynpelikoneet - active, a little iffy here and there, but mostly a town read from him. definitely not a good lynch target. 6/10 Nirvana.Gabo - Not liking him one bit. He votes Onegu because he doesn't like his read. Nirvana says Chezinu is a crazy guy like its common knowledge and that by even suggesting that Chezinu is scum that Onegu must be scum. So, yeah, Nirvana's looking pretty scummy for me. 3.5/10 FirmTofu - seems like he should have his "mega post" out by now, but I won't say that's scummy. He hasn't been very active but looks to be more active now, so I'll reserve my judgement on him... 5/10 Chezinu - I have no fucking idea I have no fucking idea austinmcc - seems to be chasing nothing. I'd like him to be more active -- not in posting -- but in actually giving thought out opinions on people. He's leaning scum on me because he really hasn't contributed much... 4.5/10 Needs to post-tier (null unless bold which is at least somewhat more scummy than the other inactives) - Dandel Ion, Ghost_403, Oatsmaster, Stutters695, Z-BosoN, Abenson, CaucasianAsian, jampidampi, Wow, going through filters is depressing. It shows how many people don't post at all ffs  How many scum do you have on your list? Seems like nearly everyone is nearly that 50/50. Are there 10 scum among our midst or are your scales somewhat "different?" Meanwhile just about everyone that is on the strong side of your spectrum has "hopped on your bandwagon" or thinks you're somewhat scummy. In my opinion, you're still a better than average bet (20%) for scum. In fact I feel that you'd have 40% to flip red. A "bad town player" might just as likely be giving a consistently bad scum performance, and I'd still be voting you if I didn't think that we have better targets. I'm going to vote now because I want some answers from the player that is biggest fool in the game right now. ##Vote Chezinu | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
I guess dead man walking? Yay. Based on the assumed deadline, johnnywup has a day 1 nuke? And considering on the setup, unless multiple nukes explode at day 1, this probably makes johnnywup town. If multiple townies die from not firing day 1 nukes then johnnywup is scum. There might be the play to launch now and claim an early deadline but that just doesn't make sense. Now. I resort to prayer. | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
On July 08 2013 20:46 raynpelikoneet wrote: I can't understand anything of the bolded. Explain. Day 1 time limit. If Chezinu's unstable nukes then why not johnnywup. On July 08 2013 14:09 johnnywup wrote: Guys. I don't have much time left. I need to nuke someone to live. I'm getting a scummy read out of TanGeng. He's one I feel is most likely scum... So there you go. | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
My thought process is that if there are many of Day 1 nukes, the scum could have one, and the play from johnnywup makes sense from the view point of a scum needing to fire nukes and arguing OMGUS on his lynch "bandwagon" and looking for any ground to justify someone to nuke. All his scumhunting logic is terrible. "2 or 3 scum going to bandwagon together on the first day?" That's highly unlikely. Scum are more likely to distance themselves from each other to sow confusion rather than appear as a bloc to the community. Scum day one distance each other. If multiple nukes do not explode, we're left with either a true deadline claim and town or scum or a false deadline claim and scum from one person (and maybe Chez - but Chez fired almost immediately so that might be even earlier of a deadline). Although it is speculation, I don't think lonely scum Day 1 deadline is likely at all in the setup and I'm eliminating putting aside that possibility. A false claim strategy from scum just doesn't make any sense, and I don't see them pulling it off. That leaves with only the town possibility. | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
On July 08 2013 23:00 Stutters695 wrote: Tan what do you mean by lonely scum? Lonely scum = scum and only player with a Day 1 Nuke | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
On July 08 2013 23:10 Oatsmaster wrote: guysss I have a 1shot anti nuke thing. so I can shoot down nukes Which nuke do I destroy!. Im currently going with the xalatos one because Chez scumread is stronger than Johnny scumread ESPECIALLY since johnny seems to be posting, I feel that I can get a more confident read on johnny later. Also chez has never ever ever explained why xalatos past CHEZINU RULE. I dont buy it. Nope. Discuss. Save MZ because I have a full town read on him and you'll have a better chance of winning town with him. Xalatos has claimed that he may survive. So it looks like Xalatos could be the veteran. The exact nature of Chez nuke isn't known. Although at this point I'd think it's an one shot early deadline. I'd argue myself, but I don't have a clear target for my ability at the moment. | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
| ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
Are you trying to visit scum? | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
From the POV of town what should you be doing if you are radiation infected? | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
| ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
| ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
On July 09 2013 00:09 Xatalos wrote: Well, I can try asking, although I'm not sure if they're supposed to reveal things like are there other than Radiation nukes. No I mean asking about radiation infection. Seriously. WTF is wrong with you. | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
now Xatalos might just get killed 1st night. | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
As for NG, it just reeks of elitism rather than say scummy. The guy is a smurf, right? | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
Just the nukes part. | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
On July 09 2013 01:24 Xatalos wrote: I guess there's that chance of scum fake-nuking scum Meapak (with Meapak being immune or the nuke being non-lethal). That's worth keeping in mind, but nothing worth pursuing atm. Meapak should either be campaigning to get the nuke shot down or be claiming immunity. Otherwise it will be a non-lethal shot, and it would put Meapak under the microscope. | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
You are Xi Jinping, the Chinese Prime Minister! You've created a nuke. See that. That's me. | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
| ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
What about Abenson, Ghost_403, or MajuGarzett? Or even StrongAndBig? | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
On July 09 2013 02:09 Nirvana.Gabo wrote: I really can't be bothered to conform to some standard of how my role should be claimed. something like what you've quoted takes zero effort to fake. Here, I'll show you. I'm sorry. I just find Medic/Doctor claims harder to believe. It's very convenient scum claim because of how the ability works. | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
| ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
On July 09 2013 02:34 strongandbig wrote: also did anyone say anything about the thing i posted before? that really looks like a weird thing that va said. I'm not sure what you said in your response. | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
| ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
On July 09 2013 02:39 strongandbig wrote: yeah sure jonnywups post: (1) lists every lurker in the game. no good reason to do that, its a waste of effort for town cause everyone can look for themselves whether a player has posted. literally no one will give a single shit about that list. however, its a convenient way for scum to pad out the post. (2) excessive focus only on people who voted him rather than looking for reads and pursuing them throughout the game. indicates a "get people off of me" mentality rather than a "find who's scum" mentality. (3) votes for wos, doesn't actually explain any reasons why he's scum except "look at before" despite talking about other players. (4) his reasons for omgussing people voting him are all pretty bad; there's nothing about tanggang or abenson explaining why they have a scum mentality or whatever. goes wiht the "get people to stop voting me" rather than "find who's scum" mentality thing. why did people say this was a townie looking post? My thought was that there is too much evidence. Even when it was pointed out, johnnywup didn't change. Scum should have a bit more self-consciousness. Then again while we are on the subject of bad play then johnnywup can be just showing bad scum play. A few slips would be more telling. A lot of slips doesn't give as much information. | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
| ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
On July 09 2013 03:53 geript wrote: Look WoS this is a policy lynch vote. Nothing else. Policy lynch votes tend to have a high mislynch probability. Even worst, how all the votes formed on him pretty quickly makes it look strongly like a mislynch. As for why I haven't shifted my opinions on you, it's because you haven't 'gotten srs' and still look scummy. Geript, Have you reevaluated WoS? It seemed to me like you did a quick immediate evaluation during the fluff period and just tunneled him for the rest of Day 1. Is there any more evidence beyond the initial gut reaction? Also take a look at his apparent Hacker claim. | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
| ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
I'll corroborate. The Role PM doesn't say. What was your time limit? | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
On July 09 2013 05:17 Xatalos wrote: Nothing you say makes sense. So was the nuke lethal or beneficial in some way? At least you should be able to say that much. The nuke is most probably lethal. It's unlikely to be beneficial but then again that might be hidden from us in the set up. The key characteristic is that it's is unstable and Chez in this case had 48 hour limit for it to strike. (This means that it's a Day 1 Nuke) In addition to johnnywup, that means that we have two Day 1 nukes. Unfortunately Chez isn't special and he's just like johnnywup. | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
| ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
| ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
My stance on this lynch is let ON calm down and give a counterargument. There's just huge bandwagoning at the moment. At first examination ON's blue role is ridiculous but it actually falls inline with the amount of power that other blue roles have for example Chezinu/johnnywup Day 1 nukes are more mayhem roles. While Xatalos's must be nuked and become radiation infector is a latent one that may never be triggered. The other ones, one redirect (hidden) and single shoot down (Oatsmaster) are far more powerful. (We also apparently have the tried and true Medic in NG.) I see ON's claim in line with Xatalos's. It's marginal role but the claim is well within the realm of possibilities. | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
On July 09 2013 06:10 Xatalos wrote: Any role is "possible", what matters is how he roleclaimed. It happened immediately after he had been "away" for hours and austinmcc had just made a case on him. That's the kind of panic roleclaim a scum would do after staying in the shadows before that. Actually, the roleclaim is perfectly plausible from town. I don't see it be complete scum. The coherence of the claim is what needs to be checked. If it's a lie, it'd have to be water tight rather than organic. | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
| ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
Also a bit about Unstable Nukes if it's not revealed in the flip. A player given one of these basically has to land the nuke before the end of the time limit or die. (fire before T-12 hours). We apparently have two of these people Chezinu and johnnywup with limit of 48 hours. Mine was at 72 hours. There might be another so you may be dealing with a Night 1 nuke. | ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
| ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
| ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
| ||
|
TanGeng
Sanya12364 Posts
| ||
| ||
andel Ion said he's going to stop posting during dayphase which is pretty stupid. I mean, of course an excuse to not post is scummy as hell but I don't think he would be stupid enough to do that if he was scum >_> 
