Doctor Who Mafia - Page 47

phagga

Switzerland2194 Posts

May 22 2013 13:57 GMT

#921

I've been chasing filters like mad. Oats has 2 relevant scum games (Ego Mini, LIX), and I followed them up, but somehow his play is so inconsistent that I can't get him on meta really. There is some stuff I like in his filter (not switching to decon when he could D1, interaction with ghost before he got lynched), others is just bad. His fails in logic several times in the game are really ugly. (Zeph-Nightkill, talking about my scum meta, saying neither me nor deconduo is lynchworthy when one of us three is clearly scum).

Decon. Well. He has barely any analysis in his filter. He is talking setup/movement alot. I actually like Sentinels case by now. However, Oats is the worse offender, so my vote stays.

I want the deconduo/Oats situation solved. I'm not gonna vote for anyone else than one of those two.

mkfuba, make your decision, vote either decon or Oats. No other lynch is gonna happen today.

deconduo

Ireland4122 Posts

May 22 2013 14:24 GMT

#922

Hey, I'm in the middle of moving house so today is a really bad day for me and I probably won't be around at the deadline. I had a quick read over the thread and it seems like people are throwing votes everywhere. This is lylo, we can't afford a mislynch. Keep your votes on oats.

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

May 22 2013 14:40 GMT

#923

Well no, I said that I dont want to make a decision today between you 2 because Im not confident in killing dec cause blue, and not confident in flipping you cause you townish. And I want to kill outside that.
I am now firm in the belief that Sent is scum. Yay thanks sent for posting that case.

Isnt it easier to make a decsion between 2 people for dec/sent/mkfuba? Than 3 people if me/you/dec is up for lynch?

[UoN]Sentinel

United States11320 Posts

May 22 2013 14:56 GMT

#924

On May 22 2013 23:40 Oatsmaster wrote:
Well no, I said that I dont want to make a decision today between you 2 because Im not confident in killing dec cause blue, and not confident in flipping you cause you townish. And I want to kill outside that.
I am now firm in the belief that Sent is scum. Yay thanks sent for posting that case.

Isnt it easier to make a decsion between 2 people for dec/sent/mkfuba? Than 3 people if me/you/dec is up for lynch?

Keep believing that. See where it gets you.

I might not be here at the deadline itself but I'll check in whenever I can. Everyone vote Oats.

The reason I can't make a big case on him like I did with ghost and dec is that his lack of substance is spread all across his filter. Six pages of "what do you think of abcdefg" and sheep.

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

May 22 2013 14:57 GMT

#925

The reason I can't make a big case on him like I did with ghost and dec is that his lack of substance is spread all across his filter. Six pages of "what do you think of abcdefg" and sheep.

I do this in a whole lotta games....
Show a meta reason why im scum if you can.

[UoN]Sentinel

United States11320 Posts

May 22 2013 15:00 GMT

#926

On May 22 2013 23:57 Oatsmaster wrote:

Show nested quote +

I do this in a whole lotta games....
Show a meta reason why im scum if you can.

I've never played with you. All I see is scum play so I vote for the person who I'm most convinced is scum. That would be you.

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

May 22 2013 15:01 GMT

#927

On May 23 2013 00:00 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:

Show nested quote +

I've never played with you. All I see is scum play so I vote for the person who I'm most convinced is scum. That would be you.

Dude. If you did that, you would without fail mislynch people like kush and BM. Meta has to be taken into account IMO.
Assuming I have the exact filter and I flipped town in another game, would that change your read on me?>

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

May 22 2013 15:06 GMT

#928

Everyone, thoughts on me vs Sent as those seem to be the 2 wagons.

[UoN]Sentinel

United States11320 Posts

May 22 2013 15:17 GMT

#929

I wouldn't mind mislynching Bill Murray because Bill Murray is useless.

Crossfire99

United States1529 Posts

May 22 2013 17:26 GMT

#930

Day 4 Lynch

Oatsmaster (3): deconduo, phagga, ~~mkfuba07~~, [UoN]Sentinel
[UoN]Sentinel (2): ~~phagga~~, mkfuba07, Oatsmaster
deconduo (0): ~~[UoN]Sentinel~~, ~~Oatsmaster~~, ~~Oatsmaster~~
phagga (0): ~~mkfuba07~~, ~~Oatsmaster~~
mkfuba07 (0): ~~Oatsmaster~~

The lynch will happen in at 20:00 GMT (+00:00). With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch. Let me know if I missed something or made a mistake.

Oatsmaster

United States16628 Posts

May 22 2013 17:32 GMT

#931

I need to sleep.
Guys. Look at my argument and look at Sent's argument which isnt alignment indicative at all. And he 180s out of his stand on the 'scumslip' oppurtunistically, because he saw a way to 'look good'. Dont be fooled. lynch Sent, he is totally scum.

Good luck.

mkfuba07

United States1151 Posts

May 22 2013 19:16 GMT

#932

On May 22 2013 21:57 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:

Show nested quote +

On May 22 2013 16:13 mkfuba07 wrote:

On May 22 2013 15:31 phagga wrote:

On May 22 2013 13:28 mkfuba07 wrote:

On May 22 2013 11:26 [UoN]Sentinel wrote:

On May 22 2013 10:52 Oatsmaster wrote:
Sentinel is second scum after deconduo.
Why? Cause he has been flipflopping around my 'scumslip' and now of course he doesnt think phagga is scum, and he cant find any stronger reasons for me to be scum.

I never thought phagga was scum. I fell into the sheephole and when you presented your justification of "I wanted to move here" I realized you were in a similar position I fell into by defending feryl. That's when I realized the error of my ways. I pushed for Dec but that one was harder to prove at the moment so I went for ghost. Although ghost flipped town, I gathered more scum play from the dec camp.

Why are you not scum? Because Dec is, and for either of you to bus each other at lylo would be so idiotic I would make it a duty to policy lynch both of you from now on. Mkfuba is scum because he fluffs like a mofo and cherrypicks evidence. He believes dec's claim wholeheartedly yet votes to lynch you due to a scumslip and questionable meta. That's playing blind to so many facets of what's transpiring here, its obvious he is trying to sheep you simply because the alternative would be to bus Dec. It is for this reason I will not strive to convince him for he cannot be convinced as scum, but phagga can.

See, that's my problem when I play mafia. I can't keep everything everyone's said in my head at all times. I can't go through everyone's filters nonstop because it takes me an eternity. It takes me hours to write almost any post because it's like I see literally every possibility, and can't finish a thought without another one second-guessing what I've already written. If I try to play like everyone else (as everyone else seems to play similarly, though with different attitudes and with different skill levels), I'm fluffy and wishy-washy.

So I try to focus on individual actions. It's why I wanted to vote for vivax earlier, and it's why I had more to say about oats's "scumslip". It's why I latched onto phagga's suggestion to check two people, when it gains us literally nothing other than the doubt I find myself in now. The fact that everyone else here (oats excluded, probably) seemed to have had very similar thoughts before the nightpost (oats likely scum, phagga likely town), makes me wonder why the hell no one sees exactly what I do. THERE WAS NO REASON TO CHECK PHAGGA! We all pretty much thought he was town! If I were in phagga's place, even if I considered that I could be checked at the same time, I'd leave it be because THERE WAS NO POINT. Add to that the fact that IF oats is town, and IF phagga is scum, this situation leads to an almost guaranteed win for scum, and the argument seems stronger. We already thought oats was scum. A green check (which decon would provide if it was an oats-only check) on oats would ruin that mislynch. What goes on to secure it? Adding a scum check that can either be attributed to oats or phagga, with obvious results. Keep in mind that this was before you mentioned your case against deconduo. At that moment, if it came simply down to oats vs phagga as scum, you know who you would choose, and I argue that that's what scum was counting on.

##Unvote

Anyway, all of that being said, maybe I was taking deconduo's claim for granted. Do you not feel like fakeclaiming like that would be dangerous as scum at that point in time? Is it not risky to fakeclaim when there's the possibility of you being lynched, when being caught in a fakeclaim will guarantee it? Would you fakeclaim the DT role even though the Doctor would seem like a pretty good DT candidate himself (and you can't use his name, because there's definitely a Doctor out there)? These are some thoughts that keep me believing deconduo, so if you want me to vote for him, convince me I'm wrong.

Look, I'm not even debating that in hindsight it was useless to let decon check me as well, it was just something that came into my mind 5 minutes before deadline and then there was no time left to discuss it. Yes, I agree it could have been a plan by scum, but the point is that in both cases it did not make much sense to let that check happen. Also, as I said earlier, if I was so inclined on getting Oats misslynched, why would I kill all the people that support an Oats lynch? (mainly Zeph). Would it not be much easier to kill deconduo instead and then push an Oats lynch with Zeph?

The plan you are implying is so highly convoluted that it would get a small chance of success for scum. If I was indeed scum, I would have had so many easier ways to push a misslynch than what you are proposing.

Look, let's line this out: For your theorie to work, you have to make these assumptions:

Phagga is scum
Deconduo is town
Oats is town
Scum decides to kill the guy that supports a town-phagga/scum-Oats theory (Zeph)
Scum on purpose let town deconduo check town oats
Scum on purpose come up with a last minute plan before deadline
Scum on purpose demands of deconduo that he changes his movement 1 minute before deadline
Scum than uses the new information of deconduo to push an Oats lynch

For my explanation to work, you need to make these assumptions:

Phagga is town
Phagga had a bad plan 5 minutes before deadline

If you look at it like this, it should be obvious that while your theory is not impossible, it is very improbable. If I was indeed scum, why would I come up with such a complicated and risky-to-execute plan when I could have had it so much easier with the same chance of success?

What scum gains from this wouldn't be that simple, and what I need to assume for this plan to work is far, far more than scum would have to. In my scenario, scum don't simply gain a mislynch on oats. They kill a confirmed, experienced townie (zeph), avoid allowing deconduo to make oats a confirmed townie, almost guarantee a mislynch on oats, and in turn win the game because it's lylo. Those are a LOT of gains when the alternative is letting deconduo confirm the most lynchable townie. And as for the assumptions scum would have to make in that scenario, they know everyone's alignment already, they didn't need to come up with a last minute plan, just unveil it at the last minute, and the rest of those assumptions are just implicitly part of the plan that they would have formed.

Your list of town phagga assumptions is right though... And I just now understood what you really said about my assumptions. I'm wondering if I've been Sherlocking it (that's what I've decided to call it when I find a scum plan that I think fits so perfectly that I can't believe it's not the truth). The ease with which I feel a scum phagga could have developed this plan is at odds with how I would otherwise feel about your alignment. I'll have to think on it a bit more, possibly set myself straight. In any case, I do still believe deconduo, which means that either you or oats is scum (but not both). That leaves only Sentinel as the last scum.

##Vote: [UoN]Sentinel

Oh, and as for oats's plan... I'm kind of against it.

HOLD THE FUCK UP

You're telling me that you don't know whether phagga or Oats is town because Oats refuted your plan, so by that logic I'm the scum?

No. I'm saying that given that I still believe deconduo isn't fakeclaiming, that means one of oats/phagga is scum, leaving one scum left between me and you. Since I know I'm not scum, that only leaves you. It's not the best argument for convincing others, but it's logic that I am comfortable with. (I also don't remember oats refuting my plan... but that's neither here nor there)

phagga, will you absolutely not vote for sent today? You've said already that you think he's the final scum (unless you've changed your mind after the filter dives). Is the problem that oats is also voting for him?

In any case, I'll be here until the deadline. I know it's lylo, and I will avoid a no-lynch no matter what. You know where my vote will go if it comes down to it.

[UoN]Sentinel

United States11320 Posts

May 22 2013 19:49 GMT

#933

If Oats holds his vote, then only one of us can be scum because of the bussing I was talking about before.

And by extension of your logic, I am not scum so I am convinced that Oats is.

Oh and oats doesn't actually have much of an argument, he parrots other peoples words to make it look like he's contributing.

phagga

Switzerland2194 Posts

May 22 2013 19:50 GMT

#934

I don't know who I should vote anymore.

I was set that oats and Sent are the last scum. Now they are voting each other, and I doubt that it's a buss. so who is the scum?

I have not really chased your filters down in detail, mkfuba, but from what I saw you seem to play like this as town all the time. you are pretty much the only one I trust to be town in this mess.

Why Sentinel?

GreYMisT

United States6738 Posts

May 22 2013 19:51 GMT

#935

The day will end in 10 minutes the Day 5 post might be slightly late, but either me or Cross will take care of it as soon as we can

[UoN]Sentinel

United States11320 Posts

May 22 2013 19:57 GMT

#936

On May 23 2013 02:26 Crossfire99 wrote:
Day 4 Lynch

Oatsmaster (3): deconduo, phagga, ~~mkfuba07~~, [UoN]Sentinel
[UoN]Sentinel (2): ~~phagga~~, mkfuba07, Oatsmaster
deconduo (0): ~~[UoN]Sentinel~~, ~~Oatsmaster~~, ~~Oatsmaster~~
phagga (0): ~~mkfuba07~~, ~~Oatsmaster~~
mkfuba07 (0): ~~Oatsmaster~~

The lynch will happen in at 20:00 GMT (+00:00). With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch. Let me know if I missed something or made a mistake.

Oatsmasters name is in every slot except for his

Vote for Oat

mkfuba07

United States1151 Posts

May 22 2013 19:58 GMT

#937

Doesn't it also seem strange that deconduo would fakeclaim just to implicate his scumbuddy? I feel like oats and sent bussing each other is more likely than oats + decon, in any case.

Hmm... actually, maybe not... I could just be sherlocking again, but something's occurred to me that I hadn't considered before, for some reason. Not enough time to look into it/explain it now, but I'm willing to vote for oats. Hopefully I haven't just talked myself into a mislynch, but I'm feeling pretty good about it.

##Unvote
##Vote: Oatsmaster