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On October 03 2026 00:05 Gorsameth wrote:
its barely going to be a blip in the price. It will fall a little in response and then climb back up because the fucking war is still there.
God I really hope they just tell him to fuck off but I have no faith.
From what i read, they already said yes.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cqd0801d2y3vt
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United States44352 Posts
Countries routinely agree to give Trump what he wants. You don't have to actually do the thing, he just wants the headline.
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The really interesting part is that total Gulf crude exports have recovered much further. Kpler estimates about 16.5 million b/d left the region in September, essentially matching the pre-war level excluding Iran. But now about 40% bypasses Hormuz, versus only 17% before the war, using the Saudi Red Sea route, Fujairah and other alternatives.
https://www.kpler.com/blog/explainer-how-mideast-gulf-crude-exports-returned-to-pre-war-levels
Now, to explain this to the average American sports fan. The Iron Sheik had the middle east oil supply in the vaunted camel clutch submission hold before our real American Hero Donald J Trump managed to get to his knees and drive the evil Iranian into the turnbuckle.
Anyhow, hopefully the world price of oil falls soon. However, refining that oil is becoming the new problem. Time to start building more oil refineries in North America. More refineries in Alberta would be awesome.
On October 03 2026 00:10 KwarK wrote:
Countries routinely agree to give Trump what he wants. You don't have to actually do the thing, he just wants the headline.
True, Trump's negotiation tactics are working
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United States44352 Posts
On October 03 2026 00:26 JimmyJRaynor wrote:
Now, to explain this to the average American sports fan. The Iron Sheik had the middle east oil supply in the vaunted camel clutch submission hold before our real American Hero Donald J Trump managed to get to his knees and drive the evil Iranian into the turnbuckle.
Have you ever met anyone?
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On October 03 2026 00:42 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On October 03 2026 00:26 JimmyJRaynor wrote:
Now, to explain this to the average American sports fan. The Iron Sheik had the middle east oil supply in the vaunted camel clutch submission hold before our real American Hero Donald J Trump managed to get to his knees and drive the evil Iranian into the turnbuckle. Have you ever met anyone?
I hang out with American sports fans all the time. How about you?
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On October 03 2026 00:10 KwarK wrote:
Countries routinely agree to give Trump what he wants. You don't have to actually do the thing, he just wants the headline. sure.
You just wish people would stand up to the senile fuck and have the rest of the world just tell America to sort it out themselves.
But I guess when the senile fuck has a nuclear launch button and has perhaps purged the Military enough to do some truly moronic shit it is better to play along.
God I want to be wrong about American voters and see the Democrats with a super majority out of the mid-terms so they can chain Trump in the pedo dungeon below the Ballroom construction pit and just rule the nation in absentia.
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I bet 2/3 of the people in this thread (excluding a few "true-believers") who seem to like Trump don't actually do, they just post for the giggles. As for whether that is a sensible way to spend one's time, I leave that for others to decide.
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On October 03 2026 00:58 TropicalHaze wrote:
I bet 2/3 of the people in this thread (excluding a few "true-believers") who seem to like Trump don't actually do, they just post for the giggles. As for whether that is a sensible way to spend one's time, I leave that for others to decide.
Most tech workers in the USA only do about 15 hours of actual work per week.
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United States44352 Posts
On October 03 2026 00:49 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On October 03 2026 00:10 KwarK wrote:
Countries routinely agree to give Trump what he wants. You don't have to actually do the thing, he just wants the headline. sure. You just wish people would stand up to the senile fuck and have the rest of the world just tell America to sort it out themselves. But I guess when the senile fuck has a nuclear launch button and has perhaps purged the Military enough to do some truly moronic shit it is better to play along. God I want to be wrong about American voters and see the Democrats with a super majority out of the mid-terms so they can chain Trump in the pedo dungeon below the Ballroom construction pit and just rule the nation in absentia.
A few more examples for fun.
We are getting a check, it's a commitment, for $1.35 trillion from the European Union. They didn't want to pay it, they said 'we can't pay it,' but I said you have to pay it because you've been ripping us off on cars and everything else for fifty years. So they came in, they sat down, and they signed it. $750 billion of it is coming upfront for our energy—our beautiful liquid natural gas—and another $600 billion is coming in for our companies. They never paid us a dime before, and now they're paying trillions. July 27 2025
There was no check, no 'they' who came in, no signature, no upfront $750b payment.
Vietnam has been a very big abuser, a very big currency manipulator, worse than almost anybody except China. But we put the tariffs on them, big ones, and they came right to the table. They said, 'What do we have to do to make it stop?' I told them you have to pay a penalty. You have to pay for what you did. So they are writing us a massive check—tens of billions of dollars—and it's coming right into our Treasury. It’s an upfront payment to do business with the United States. September 5 2025
Again, no checks, no upfront payments, no cash transfers to the US treasury.
We have, as you know, in Japan, it's $550 billion. South Korea is $350 billion. Now that's upfront. And one of the things I can say, I announced it lightly before, but uh, we're taking in tremendous amounts of money with tariffs. September 25 2025
Again, no upfront payments, no transfers of cash to the treasury.
We had a number, $250 billion, they're paying it upfront. It's a massive amount of cash that they are handing over, or else the tariffs go on. And they agreed to it immediately. The checks are being written as we speak. January 15 2026
They said Canada and Mexico wouldn't pay. But they are paying. They're sending us billions of dollars. I look at the numbers every morning, and the money is just pouring in. They're writing checks to the United States because they don't want the tariffs. September 28 2026
They all treat him like you would an Alzheimer's patient. It's just not worth the fight, he already has his own version of reality and he's unwilling to leave it. There's no upside to getting him worked up over it and so they just ignore it because they know he won't remember it tomorrow.
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From the BBC article, it's the G7 who is going to release the Diesel reserves, which is honestly a bit weird since I didn't know that there was a G7 reserve, in fact, if we exclude Canada, US, Japan and UK, only Italy, France and Germany are in the actual EU, so are they the ones who are going to unilateraly release the diesel?
Because from articles it seems the phrasing is "it's possible" and "we'll talk about it":
Member states are discussing a coordinated release through the IEA, as the US pressures Europe to put more oil on the market. The Energy Commissioner told Euronews that Brussels can help coordinate the effort.
So, yeah, I don't think anyone really caved, they just said "we'll think about it".
What seems to be discussed is releasing about 100 million through IEA, which already released 400 million at the start of this fuckup, to which EU contributed about 20 %, so I sincerely doubt that this will make a dent, even if it happens.
I'm personally against it, a shocker, I know, but the best chance for energy prices to return to a semblance of normality is if Trump and MAGA get thoroughly trounced in the midterms and congress and senate voting to stop the war (unlikely to actually stop it but we'll see) and the only thing that seems to go through thick US voters skulls is gas prices, so I'm willing to just batten the hatches for another few months for a brighter future after, even if it spikes the inflation in EU in the meantime.
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100m barrels of diesel over four months is less than 1m barrels a day. The world uses 30m barrels per day. It's going to have a negligible psychological effect on prices while depleting reserves that we might need in case of a non-self-inflicted energy shock.
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United States44352 Posts
The other thing is that the US already coordinated with Europe and Japan for a strategic release of reserves to stave off supply shortfalls. That was back in March when he assured them that they didn't need to prepare for a long war and that they should aggressively release reserves to cover the blip and then refill the reserves during the summer.
So when October rolls around and he says that supplies are still falling short and he needs them to release their reserves the first step is naturally going to be to dramatically increase purchasing. The first step to releasing the reserves is filling up the reserves.
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All this is a great excuse/reason to crank up military spending. If Trump gets his requested increase the USA will be spending more on military in 2027 than they did during the height of WW2 even factoring in inflation.
I can empathize with the 60s and 70s whining about illegal wars... At this point... This is just what the USA IS.
Hell, Michael Stivik was whining about this to Archie Bunker 55+ years ago.
Same bullshit new decade. Looks like James Madison was right.
The rational individual response: never be 100% loyal to the USA. Always have some other country to work and live.
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On October 03 2026 00:47 JimmyJRaynor wrote:Show nested quote +On October 03 2026 00:42 KwarK wrote:On October 03 2026 00:26 JimmyJRaynor wrote:
Now, to explain this to the average American sports fan. The Iron Sheik had the middle east oil supply in the vaunted camel clutch submission hold before our real American Hero Donald J Trump managed to get to his knees and drive the evil Iranian into the turnbuckle. Have you ever met anyone? I hang out with American sports fans all the time. How about you?
Wrassiling is not a sport, it’s a soap opera. I’m sure there is a huge cross over of Trump fans and wrassiling fans, because both love drama and no substance. But they are not sports fans.
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Maybe good news. Crude shipping from the middle east is back to pre-war levels. The 10-day average of crude exports from the Middle East is 98% of prewar levels. It hasn't had a large affect on crude prices, perhaps because people expect Iran to escalate and the Houthis are threatening shipping through the. Total shipping is www.nytimes.com recovering partly from US military protection and partly from utilizing export routes that circumvent the strait of hormuz altogether.
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United States44352 Posts
There's two things at play here.
Firstly, we should remember that Iran, a significant oil producer in its own right, is under an export blockade. For the total crude exports to be unchanged in that context then the claim is really that every other country in the Persian Gulf has increased crude exports by about 10%. That seems questionable, although I guess possible in the short term if we also suppose that previous production went into storage during the Iranian blockade and then there was a bursting of the dam effect once the strait was reopened.
Secondly, crude exports is a fraction of the whole story. Oil producers make far better money refining their own crude and exporting the refined product. When an article singles out crude and says that crude is back where it was then we could be looking at a situation in which the damage done to crude extraction/export infrastructure is lower than the damage done to refining/export infrastructure and so crude appears abnormally strong.
Let's say a country used to produce 20 crude, refine 10, and export 10 crude and 10 refined. Crude extraction takes 5 points of damage, refinery capacity takes 5 points of damage, and export infrastructure takes 5. You're now going to be exporting 10 crude and 5 refined.
I did a quick search to test my hypothesis and found this article from yesterday that explains the disconnect.Exports of crude oil have begun to normalize in the Persian Gulf, bringing some relief to global buyers. But in the refined market for products such as diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel, analysts say the picture looks tighter, more expensive, and slower to recover.
While crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf region have returned to roughly 98% of their pre-war levels, product exports — of diesel, gasoline, and other derivatives — have recovered only to roughly 3 million barrels per day, or about 58% of their pre-war levels. Goldman Sachs analysts led by Daan Struyven peg that figure lower, at roughly 50% of their 2025 average.
Basically NYT put out the piece you're quoting saying crude is fine and people in the know immediately went "hold up, why are you only counting crude" and a correcting piece was put out.
Globally the world is actually running a crude oil surplus vs refining capacity right now. Similarly Russian crude exports are significantly up from the start of the year (3.1m bpd start, peaked over 4, currently 3.8) because of the exact same scenario. Russia isn't producing more hydrocarbons, crude production is down, but the ratio of crude to refined hitting the export market has changed. This is completely new territory, we've not seen anything like it before. Refinery capacity isn't easy to increase either, they don't generally run slack capacity and they're not easy to expand.
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EPT
