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My Odds Formula

Blogs > 3 Lions
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3 Lions
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States3705 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-10-20 01:46:40
October 20 2008 01:42 GMT
#1
It's not so good...I just made it up one day because I was done with all my hw and had nothing to do. I can't figure out a way to describe it...so I'll explain by giving an example.

(P)Bisu vs (Z)by.hero

(P)Bisu
PvZ(all-time): 39-24
vs (Z)by.hero: 0-0
on Colosseum II (Stats from Colosseum I included): 2-2
Last 10: 7-3
Last 10 PvZ: 5-5
Bonus?: +3%

(Z)by.hero
ZvP(all-time): 0-2
vs (P)Bisu: 0-0
on Colosseum II (Stats from Colosseum I included): 0-0
Last 10: 1-3
Last 10 ZvP: 0-2
Bonus?: None

Colosseum II(Stats from Colosseum I included): Z 7-3 P

Total: (39+0+2+7+5+2+0+0+3+2)/(24+2+3+5+0+0+0+1+0+3+7)+(39+0+2+7+5+2+0+0+3+2+3)= .63

So, (P)Bisu 58%-42% (Z)by.hero...BUT there is a bonus for (P)Bisu because he is on my personal monthly powerank in the 8th spot, so 11-8=3. He gets a bonus of 3%.

(P)Bisu 61%-39% (Z)by.hero

If you want another example I'll provide one. But don't expect it to come immediately, I'm watching a baseball game.

edit: oops messed up something in the equation, fixed

*
ulszz
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
Jamaica1787 Posts
October 20 2008 02:04 GMT
#2
it in a program or u calc by hand?
everliving, everfaithful, eversure
3 Lions
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States3705 Posts
October 20 2008 02:04 GMT
#3
I calc by hand
alphafuzard
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States1610 Posts
October 20 2008 02:20 GMT
#4
heh, you should make a program and mass a bunch of data to see if this legit
seems kinda interesting, and makes for precise liquibetting
more weight
thunk
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
United States6233 Posts
October 20 2008 02:42 GMT
#5
The power ranking probably helps a lot. Like a lot a lot.
Every time Jung Myung Hoon builds a vulture, two probes die. || My post count was a palindrome and I was never posting again.
ish0wstopper
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Korea (South)342 Posts
October 20 2008 02:51 GMT
#6
thats interesting but it doesnt take into account that bisu was once a monster and is still a solid player while by.hero is still nobody.

also, the quality of opponents should matter as well but that would get even more complicated so i can see why you wouldnt go in so deeply

but its funny that you dont pull numbers completely out of your ass, which is what i thought u did

especially when u said fbh 49 tempest 51 but u thought fbh was gonna win
ish0wstopper effect
thunk
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
United States6233 Posts
October 20 2008 03:10 GMT
#7
On October 20 2008 11:51 ish0wstopper wrote:
thats interesting but it doesnt take into account that bisu was once a monster and is still a solid player while by.hero is still nobody.

also, the quality of opponents should matter as well but that would get even more complicated so i can see why you wouldnt go in so deeply

but its funny that you dont pull numbers completely out of your ass, which is what i thought u did

especially when u said fbh 49 tempest 51 but u thought fbh was gonna win


I think he does account for it with his own personal power rank, lifetime stats, and the last 10 games in that MU. Those three things are measures of how he sees their innate ability to win, how good they once (or are) were, and whether or not they're on a hot streak right now, respectively.


OP, could you post up a generalized formula of how you calculate stats rather than a specific example? It's unclear to me right now.
Every time Jung Myung Hoon builds a vulture, two probes die. || My post count was a palindrome and I was never posting again.
Avidkeystamper
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
United States8552 Posts
October 20 2008 03:26 GMT
#8
That would be a lot of variables, but thanks for putting this up, it accounts for a lot of things!
Jaedong
3 Lions
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
United States3705 Posts
October 20 2008 10:22 GMT
#9
On October 20 2008 12:10 thunk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 20 2008 11:51 ish0wstopper wrote:
thats interesting but it doesnt take into account that bisu was once a monster and is still a solid player while by.hero is still nobody.

also, the quality of opponents should matter as well but that would get even more complicated so i can see why you wouldnt go in so deeply

but its funny that you dont pull numbers completely out of your ass, which is what i thought u did

especially when u said fbh 49 tempest 51 but u thought fbh was gonna win


I think he does account for it with his own personal power rank, lifetime stats, and the last 10 games in that MU. Those three things are measures of how he sees their innate ability to win, how good they once (or are) were, and whether or not they're on a hot streak right now, respectively.


OP, could you post up a generalized formula of how you calculate stats rather than a specific example? It's unclear to me right now.

basically, it's (all the wins player1 has in the categories + all the losses of player2 in his categories)/(numerator) + (wins of player2 in categories + wins of player 1)
WorldCommunist8
Profile Joined August 2007
United States226 Posts
Last Edited: 2008-10-21 02:52:01
October 21 2008 02:50 GMT
#10
some of the statistics are redundant, and inflate the numbers in favor of one player. If you have Player Z's Wins v Player X, you don't also need Player X's Losses v Player Z.

Also adding in the wins of both players in all categories as part of the denominator is kind of... stupid?

I don't know. It doesn't seem statistically sound, and I think you could put some more polish into it. It's a start though. The bonus is a very nice touch. Maybe to make it a uniform standardization, use KeSPA rankings?

EDIT: I didn't read that you just kind of made it up one day. I still stand by what I said, though.
You're toast, R1CH
LxRogue
Profile Blog Joined March 2007
United States1415 Posts
October 21 2008 07:44 GMT
#11
On October 21 2008 11:50 WorldCommunist8 wrote:
some of the statistics are redundant, and inflate the numbers in favor of one player. If you have Player Z's Wins v Player X, you don't also need Player X's Losses v Player Z.

Also adding in the wins of both players in all categories as part of the denominator is kind of... stupid?

I don't know. It doesn't seem statistically sound, and I think you could put some more polish into it. It's a start though. The bonus is a very nice touch. Maybe to make it a uniform standardization, use KeSPA rankings?

EDIT: I didn't read that you just kind of made it up one day. I still stand by what I said, though.


That doesn't seem redundant to me. Wins against your opponent should matter more than wins against somebody else. Adding your overall record to your record vs your opponent just means it's twice as important, seems reasonable.
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