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So which teams will get invited to TI? Will it be 8 or 12 teams?
Valve has kept their criteria of how teams have been invited hidden but there are some clues as I will go into below.
Clues:
1) Be top 6 of previous major
2) Win a premier tournament
3) Don't change your roster
+ Show Spoiler +1) For all three majors this year since TI5 the top6 of the previous major got invited. There are no exceptions. This does not prove that top6 at Manila guarantees an invite to TI6 as correlation does not prove causation. There could be other factors at work (strength in other tournaments, etc). But as a general rule this holds true. For example at TI5 VP got 5th/6th and between then and the Frankfurt Major they had little to no results in premier tournaments (as outline by liquipedia). They got 5th/6th at MLG World Championships and 5th/6th at Nanyang Championships. Not exactly Major invite material. My guess is there top 6 at TI5 clinched them a spot a major.
2) If you win a premier tournament (see liquipedia) before the next major you get to go to that major. Vega, Team Secret, Alliance, Vici Gaming Reborn, and Wings Gaming all did it. The only team to win a premier tournament and not be invited is Team Empire when they won the Game Show Global eSports Cup Season 1. Not exactly a prestigious tournament but did have a prizepool of $330,322 (no pun intended). Please note that other teams like EG, Ehome, MVP, and Team Liquid also won tournaments between majors but they all finished top 6 at the previous major so them winning the tournament had no effect if they were invited.
3) EG and Secret will not be invited to TI6 as they have violated Valve's roster lock rules.
Teams that are guaranteed to be invited:
OG
Team Liquid
Newbee
LGD
Fnatic
MVP
Winners of these tournaments (0-4):
+ Show Spoiler +ESL One Frankfurt (Alliance, OG, Liquid, LGD, Vega, Navi, Complexity and Fnatic)
Nanyang Championship Season 2 (Newbee, Secret, EG, Fnatic, Empire, DC, Chinese qualifier and SEA qualifier)
Summit 5 (DC, Wings, Ad Finem, Fnatic and 4 TBA invites)
StarSeries Season 2 (DC, Fnatic, VP, Chinese qualifier, H-Cup Winner, and 3 TBA invites)
**note that EG and Secret will not get invited to TI6 even if they win these tournaments as seen by clue 3**
Other potential invites:
+ Show Spoiler +Now this is where it gets tricky as seen by the Manila invites. Navi and LGD were both invited but yet failed to win a tournament or get top 6 at Shanghai. Alliance and OG both got top 8 at Shanghai but also didn't win any tournaments. My guess is that Valve went off script for this and wanted to invite a previous Major winner, OG, which would make 9 invites. Alliance also did really well between Frankfurt and Shanghai and got 7th/8th at Shanghai which is a really strong -but not guaranteed- case to be invited to the next major. Valve bent their own rules because it would be weird doing 4 regional qualifiers for 6 spots so they had to find 2 more teams to invite (LGD and Navi). This is a scenario that could happen again even though it seems the community does not like it. It all depends on who wins the 4 tournaments. Valve could also invite 10 teams and have all the second place teams from the regional qualifier come to Seattle to compete for the last 2 spots. They have lots of options.
Navi and Vici Gaming Reborn have put themselves into a good position by finishing top 8 at Manila. If no other teams have good results then these 2 teams are favoured for the last 2 spots.
North America: Although heralded as the strongest scene by many have a low chance for invites unless DC or Complexity can win a tournament. I think DC could get an invite if they place high at Summit 5 or StarSeries and no non-top6 Manila Major team does that well. I guess that holds true for almost every team though... >_>;;
Predictions for direct TI6 invites:
Top 6 at Manila
DC
Navi
Top 2 from each regional qualifier (Team Secret, EG, Ehome, VGR, Ad Finem, Empire, Mineski and TNC Gaming)
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Teams that are guaranteed to be invited:
OG
Team Liquid
Newbee
LGD
Fnatic
MVP
Yep i pretty much agree with that. Secret and EG would've been invited if they didn't change roster.
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Only top 4 are the "auto-invite". We know this for 2 reasons.
1) Information out of the Frankfurt Major was that Valve people told players only the top 4 should expect an automatic invitation.
2) The Manila Major invite list: http://www.themanilamajor.com/ (Scroll down or look at the TLWiki for the exact same list.)
They listed 1-4 placers, in order, then listed the recent Tournament Winners. Then they listed the Open Invites, in what was clearly their interior Ranking order.
The reason they'd only say Top 4, but it worked out Top 6 & what caused 12 invites for Manila, is that they want to give the Major Winner an automatic invite to the next Tournament. OG under performed at Shanghai (and a few other tournaments), so rather than being an easy invite, it was going to drop a team that probably deserved one for their recent play. Which is how LGD ended up with an invite to Manila.
Though the Top 4 vs Top 6 effects Fnatic. In an 8-team invite scenario, Fnatic can still be eclipsed by either Vega or Na'Vi if they win ESL One Frankfurt. In a 10-team invite scenario, they're clearly safe, however.
Oh, and even in an 8-invite Scenario, Alliance is going to get an invite. But that's because Secret & EG (Teams #2 & 3 on the year, as far as Valve's rankings would consider) can't be invited.
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Pandemona
Charlie Sheens House51435 Posts
Issue is, the tournament winners will have to be listed as "there is 4 blank spot for tournament winners etc. Only ESL Frankfurt will be played before the invites are announced. No other tournament will be as the qualifiers are on going around them. Open Qualifiers and Main Qualifiers will be announced this week with being played next week (open)(week beginning 20th June) and then regional qualifiers the end of June, then 4 week gap until TI6 begins first week of August? Thus i can't see invites being given to any of the tournaments outside ESL Frankfurt and that looks set to be OG vs Liquid in the finals so no place will be given.
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On June 13 2016 19:15 Pandemona wrote:
Issue is, the tournament winners will have to be listed as "there is 4 blank spot for tournament winners etc. Only ESL Frankfurt will be played before the invites are announced. No other tournament will be as the qualifiers are on going around them. Open Qualifiers and Main Qualifiers will be announced this week with being played next week (open)(week beginning 20th June) and then regional qualifiers the end of June, then 4 week gap until TI6 begins first week of August? Thus i can't see invites being given to any of the tournaments outside ESL Frankfurt and that looks set to be OG vs Liquid in the finals so no place will be given.
Top 4 at ESL One Frankfurt could be very valuable to a few teams. But as much as we want to say it's a OG vs Liquid show, everyone is pretty much flying straight from the Major to Frankfurt. A few teams are probably going to be off their game a little.
Thankfully, it's a GSL style group stage, otherwise it could be really messy. Though Vega is the only team that wasn't at the Major, so there's room for surprises.
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I belive that the best possible outcome for Valve is
(considering invite + regional qualify)
SEA: (3 team)
Fnantic
MVP
+1 Team
NA (3 Team)
Evil Genius
Col
DC
Europe (5 Team)
OG
Team Liquid
Team Secret
Navi
+2
China (5 Team)
Newbee
LGD
VGR
+2
I belive Valve really hopes that Team Secret and Evil Genius will be able to go past regional qualifications.
A possible solution could be to invite only TOP 4 of last Major
And concede 3 spot to every regional qualifier.
With this method
-Fnatic and MVP will have an almost guarantee qualification with 3 spot
-Sea region will have 3 spot, and not 4 (at the moment only MVP and Fnatic are top team)
-EG and Secret will have a better chance to qualify.
-They risk to lose DC and NAVI, but will have better chance to get Secret and EG, and will have one more chinese team.
So my prevision is:
INVITE:
OG
Team Liquid
Newbee
LGD
Regional Qualifier
3 Team NA
3 Team Europe
3 Team SEA
3 Team China
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On June 13 2016 17:59 Taf the Ghost wrote:Only top 4 are the "auto-invite". We know this for 2 reasons. 1) Information out of the Frankfurt Major was that Valve people told players only the top 4 should expect an automatic invitation. 2) The Manila Major invite list: http://www.themanilamajor.com/ (Scroll down or look at the TLWiki for the exact same list.) They listed 1-4 placers, in order, then listed the recent Tournament Winners. Then they listed the Open Invites, in what was clearly their interior Ranking order. The reason they'd only say Top 4, but it worked out Top 6 & what caused 12 invites for Manila, is that they want to give the Major Winner an automatic invite to the next Tournament. OG under performed at Shanghai (and a few other tournaments), so rather than being an easy invite, it was going to drop a team that probably deserved one for their recent play. Which is how LGD ended up with an invite to Manila. Though the Top 4 vs Top 6 effects Fnatic. In an 8-team invite scenario, Fnatic can still be eclipsed by either Vega or Na'Vi if they win ESL One Frankfurt. In a 10-team invite scenario, they're clearly safe, however. Oh, and even in an 8-invite Scenario, Alliance is going to get an invite. But that's because Secret & EG (Teams #2 & 3 on the year, as far as Valve's rankings would consider) can't be invited.
Thank you for this new information as I was unaware of it. I still think MVP is an auto invite because of recent performances. Why do you list Alliance as a top 10 team (or top 8 without EG/Secret)?
On June 13 2016 19:15 Pandemona wrote:
Issue is, the tournament winners will have to be listed as "there is 4 blank spot for tournament winners etc. Only ESL Frankfurt will be played before the invites are announced. No other tournament will be as the qualifiers are on going around them. Open Qualifiers and Main Qualifiers will be announced this week with being played next week (open)(week beginning 20th June) and then regional qualifiers the end of June, then 4 week gap until TI6 begins first week of August? Thus i can't see invites being given to any of the tournaments outside ESL Frankfurt and that looks set to be OG vs Liquid in the finals so no place will be given.
Good point! That definitely limits chances for teams to prove themselves. With this in mind I don't see more than 8 teams getting invited.
+ Show Spoiler +On June 14 2016 01:17 skiekai wrote:
I belive that the best possible outcome for Valve is
(considering invite + regional qualify)
SEA: (3 team)
Fnantic
MVP
+1 Team
NA (3 Team)
Evil Genius
Col
DC
Europe (5 Team)
OG
Team Liquid
Team Secret
Navi
+2
China (5 Team)
Newbee
LGD
VGR
+2
I belive Valve really hopes that Team Secret and Evil Genius will be able to go past regional qualifications.
A possible solution could be to invite only TOP 4 of last Major
And concede 3 spot to every regional qualifier.
With this method
-Fnatic and MVP will have an almost guarantee qualification with 3 spot
-Sea region will have 3 spot, and not 4 (at the moment only MVP and Fnatic are top team)
-EG and Secret will have a better chance to qualify.
-They risk to lose DC and NAVI, but will have better chance to get Secret and EG, and will have one more chinese team.
So my prevision is:
INVITE:
OG
Team Liquid
Newbee
LGD
Regional Qualifier
3 Team NA
3 Team Europe
3 Team SEA
3 Team China
Interesting ideas and could work but I think some teams that would be in regional qualifier (MVP) deserve an invite. But this would make for some high quality regional qualifiers ^_^
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Biggest problem I see with your analysis is that there's only potentially a single tournament before the invites for TI are announced, and that's this weekend.
If they keep the 10 invite structure, they'll have no choice but to invite some of the old guard to the tournament to fill up spaces:
OG / Liquid / Newbee / LGD / Fnatic / MVP / Na'Vi / Vici.Reborn / Digital Chaos / Alliance
If you put a gun to my head, those are by far your 10 most likely teams (honorable mention to complexity, but I think they probably just barely miss the cut). We don't know the format for TI this year, so there might be more teams or less teams than in previous years for direct invites (and even more or less teams overall)
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Pretty good analysis as it turns out!
Seems like the only thing you didn't account for is the strength of the rest of the scene. Valve's probably fine letting Fnatic go through qualifiers because there's such a large skill gap between Fnatic & Mineski and the rest of the teams.
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EPT
