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LCS Spring, conclusions and predictions.

Blogs > oo_Wonderful_oo
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oo_Wonderful_oo
Profile Blog Joined December 2013
The land of freedom23126 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-04-09 17:06:51
April 09 2014 01:50 GMT
#1
Yo, dudes, how it's going? Hope you're ok.

Finally, 11 weeks (okay, 12), are behind and LCS Spring Regular Season is completed. Incredibly inconsistent and weird EU LCS and sometimes absolutely awful but funny NA LCS are looking to playoffs and Summer Promotions but it's different story.

EU LCS.

Okay, before season i was predicting teams to be in positions like:
- Alliance, Gambit, Fnatic, Millenium, Roccat, Wolves, SK, SHC.

Okay, i admit, i failed, but it's k because it's EU LCS.
I'm CLG fan from Moscow, so it might be a bit weird but i like Gambit as well, so of course i was going ham for Alliance. New roster, Super Mega Death Shook and other stuff made me blind after Dignitas steamroll in BotA (with Kazmitch tho).
AND WHAT THE FUCK WAS THAT, ALLIANCE. Guess, this sentence was in many heads for first few weeks.

But in general, let's speak about teams, not about results.

Starting from the bottom. Millenium made me think that this life is a total joke. Creaton wasn't same God from weeks before broken hand in Summer Split with aTn, Jree was even more transparent, Araneae lost every link to jungle world, Kerp was overextending and throwing game after game with his Spanish captain and Kev1n was on island, trying to forget how did he send Team Alternate to LCS playoffs in previous season. Dat Malphite flash, oh God.

Even tho, i feel like Millenium after grabbing KottenX are looking way more sharp than they were with Araneae but KottenX needs to get more champions than one little Kha'Zix. + It will be 4.5 patch so who knows what can happen against NiP. Predicting 3-1 NiP but we'll see.

Supa Hot Crew XD (SHC), are worst team for me in this season of LCS, probably even Dragonborns were stronger back in 2013 Spring, not sure about Velocity though. Mimer has never changed even with 4 accounts in Challenger, Moopz was thrown away, Impaler was absolute hit-or-miss. Migxa was dying left and right and Selfie hadn't changed a lot in mid. MrRallez came huge in this season for them, and he will be only one who can save them from being relegated by hands of Cloud9 EU/Denial, considering fact ofc that 6th team will choose Reason if NiP don't choke hard.
I will watch C9E this weekend but right now i will favour them against SHC even without k0u. Febiven and Odoamne are way better than Selfie and Mimer + Hjarnan/Voidle need to hit their stride, but in bo5 it's hard to imagine SHC go hard and get 3-0, especially after their choke with Haydal against SK back into Spring Promotions.

Let's go to the middle of the pack.
Copenhagen Wolves came into this season rolling. Best ever team in Challenger scene was going hard whole time since Summer Promotions 2013.
Then Rekkles and Shook left to join Fnatic and Alliance, CW got Forg1ven and Amazing, rolled MYM 3-1, Amazing said that they raped them, so everyone was satisfied and waiting.
GOD DAMN IT, COWTARD AND YOUNGBUCK. It's hard for me to think about worst pair of sololaners in LCS history. Shushei and YamatoCannon? Vileroze and Cris? No idea.

Thank God, CW, that you found this jungler. Shook was great for this team but Amazing came huge this season and was almost only thing that got CW into playoffs.
To be honest with you, i feel like CW is worse example of CLG-2012/2013 with lower skill cap. They will drag out games, they will make everything to get their botlane feel better (i have no idea why the fuck they swap lanes every 2nd game when they have Caitlyn) and they just make same mistakes from game to game. Even tho, CLG was sometimes forcing some weird stuff and CW will watch how their base fall without doing anything.

Roccat are sick. Those Poles came into LCS smashing NiP, going ham against SHC with Malphite/Pantheon combo-wombo, Vander and Overpow instantly started getting hyped more and more by LR threads but then.
- MYM syndrome?
Nah, not rly. It seems like 4.3/4.4 weren't very good for Vander and Co + EU LCS 1st place curse + Celaver's sad adc pool, so they finished 4th and will choose sides against...

Gambit are 5th? Are you fucking serious, Gambit Gaming are 5th?
I like Gambit, i still think that Gambit in good day are 2 heads above every team in both LCS and they're worse only than best from OGN.
But oh boy, what was that. Edward was slumping hard in general with some incredibly flashy games, Diamondprox was making worst decisions in his career, Darien was dying even with trinket, Alex was mediocre in half of his games and Genja, oh Genja. Not Tear but Zephyr? K, God.

Even though, playoffs always were Gambit's arena to play and go hard and even if i'm not expecting anyone but CW to be 6th, Roccat will be rolled. And not only Roccat but...

OH BOY, SK GAMING ARE FIRST PLACE IN REGULAR SEASON.
Fucking incredible to say the least. Mediocre team with mediocre players is 1st. Thanks for deliver, EU LCS.
Bet that Gambit will ban Nidalee and Ziggs? Bet than CandyPanda will choke as always? Bet that Jesiz and Fredy will be rolled for the pride and bloody revenge for Riot remake? Poor Nrated, he doesn't deserve it but Svenskeren does and will be punished. Minute of hate is ended.

SK are weird. Jesiz is rolling from being ultra-bad to be one-spear-guy, CandyPanda and Nrated can smash every botlane but they can feed hard other day, Svenskeren is playing only Evelynn and Pantheon because he's just bad on other champions who require at least some skill and Fredy122 is just pillar of absolute mediocrity.

But on the other side of bracket, with CW will play...
Oh well, hello here, [A]. Froggen is playing best LoL of his career, even better than CLG.EU prime days, Wickd found another reborn on toplane, Tabzz and Nyph are getting more and more consistent but there is one guy behind everyone of those 4 who make them roll.
Shook, guy who failed first few weeks, guy who was called as best by the best was slumping hard on big stage of LCS, guy was called out even by Quickshot who deserved to be called as worst caster of EU LCS.
Oh well, Shook evolved, Shook became the stronghold of playmaking and his duo with Froggen is most fearsome mix of raw talent and mechanics and brains behind it that i even don't know. Will Shook perform? WIll Nyph perform? WILL FROGGEN PERFORM? They will. But after eliminating his former team, Shook and crew will get another task.

Fnatic? FUCKING FNATIC, HOW ARE YOU SO CONSISTENT IN EU LCS.
Fnatic is only team who made top-2 in all three seasons. They're defending their championship title for 2nd time. Will they do it? Noone knows right now.
sOAZ seems to finally find his stride, even if some of his plays are way more questionable than Cyanide fails. Cyanide is absolute quintessence of Fnatic. Guy who won them World Championships, can be worst Lee Sin on the planet Earth and miss every cocoon he throws but he can be incredible as well, so we'll see.
xPeke is another big question mark. Not being able to perform consistently whole season, former best EU midlaner will come back on stage to shutout every critic. Will he perform with Gragas nerf from midlane and Lulu nerf? Can he revert to another assassins from LeBlanc who will be banned by Froggen and crew or will he go ultra-farm mode Ziggs/Orianna against highly aggressive duo of Shook and Froggen? Who knows.
Rekkles and Yellowstar are beacon of hope for Fnatic. If they can outplay consistent but not flashy duo of Nyph and Tabzz, Fnatic will be totally capable of getting Alliance down. If not - oh boy, games will be fun.

So, my predictions.

Alliance will 2-0 CW ezpz, Froggen and Wickd will dominate, games won't be very long. It might be 2-1 if Amazing pulls some miracle aces from sleeve but it's only in case if Shook is atrocious.
Gambit 2-0 Roccat, even if Roccat choose blue side for the first game. Gambit showed that they can play every comp perfectly, so Roccat will be forced to ban at least Nidalee who seem like a tier-1 alongside Lulu right now but Lulu hits hard nerf. If Alex/Diamond outplay Overpow/Jankos and Edward doesn't give free fb away, all cards are on Gambit's side.
Roccat 2-0 CW to eliminate them into Promotions, even tho, CW will survive, SHC and Millenium to be eliminated, NiP and Cloud 9 EU to come.

Gambit 2-0 SK, revenge will be taken, Darien will roll Fredy, i will take Alex/Diamond over Jesiz/Svenskeren every day in the week but Svenskeren will camp top/bottom so Alex can pull every assassin he wants if Nidalee/Ziggs/Lulu are banned and just smash + dragon control will be in Gambit's favour because of Darien taking attention. Genja and Edward will go hard.
Alliance 2-1 Fnatic, hardest game to predict probably, it will be back and forth but Alliance just seem to be more variative than Fnatic, which is legit advantage in boX series. Shook and Cyanide will decide those series, i don't think Wickd and sOAZ can smash each other, same to botlanes, even if i expect 2v1s in this series at least.

Fnatic 2-0 SK, SK are just not on same level as top-3 EU teams, bo1 regular season and boX series are absolutely different stories, xPeke and crew will use their experience to come third and, i guess, be satisfied before Summer Split which matters, Rekkles will go on Allstars. Ohwell, probalby xPeke as well.

Alliance 3-2 Gambit, i just feel that games will be back and forth and i want Froggen to finally win something since Season 2, he absolutely deserves it. Gambit will be satisfied as well, getting 2nd with all their problems will be ridiculous achievement and Edward can finally stop slumping before Summer Split when Genja will pull Feral Flame on Urgot.


NA LCS

I was predicting something like:
C9TSMCLG/Coast XDG, EG, Dignitas, Curse.

OH WELL, not everything came true but still legit.
Let's start from bottom as well i assume?

XDG's story is so ridiculously sad that i won't repeat it again. I just want them to put up a good fight against LMQ and take game or two, won't happen though, 1-3 to LMQ.
EG's story isn't better, but considering level of choking in Challenger scene and unreal ability of Snoopeh to step up in playoffs, i consider them 3-0'ing CLB/C9T with ease, hope it will be CLB and C9T will compete against...

Oh, it's Coast. Coast are ridiculous. First of all, they showcased one thing - either Alex Penn is awful coach and LemonNation did everything by himself so he's like Swagger for MVP, either they're just guys who can't listen.
Same fucking mistakes, from game to game.
Team of solo laners.
POOR SHIPHTUR. LESS POOR BUT STILL POOR ZIONSPARTAN.
Wizfujin was choking half of the season, playing Varus (i hadn't seen one single good Varus since Genja, even imp failed with it on tiebreaker at Worlds), Daydreamin was just shadow of himself from the past and NintendudeX, oh dude. You were just awful guys, step up if you want to put up a fight against...
No, we won't speak about them yet, let's move on.

TEAM DIGNITAS, LET'S GO.
Scarra retired/stepped down until the end of split? Oh well, guess he can coach them with Vlanitak well.
Goldenglue is still choking hard. Goldenglue picked Orianna? K, someone will catch shockwave but he will be only one in 90% of cases. Goldenglue picked Zed? K, roll him. Other things? Same.
Everything will be put of Kiwipie botlane shoulders. Can KiwiKid step up more for the team even if he was best in Dignitas this split? Can Imaqtpie position himself as champion?
Can Crumbzz be a beast? Can Cruzer be useful? A lot of questions, not enough answers. But they are matched against even more weird team.

Hello, Team Curse. Not fourth? How so?
Getting Aphromoo as adc, Pobelter as mid and Zekent as support? Fuck it, let's throw them away.
Okay, we got Quas now, Voyboy can make plays and Cop was consistent forever, let's throw Zekent away now, he's just not for us, let's move him to coach and get Saint back.
Oh well, seems like SaintVicious isn't enjoying his position of support-shotcaller in Curse, let's call for our B team, Curse Academy, move Zekent there and get BunnyFuFuu. OH, WE CAN WIN FINALLY?
Curse pls.
Will Voyboy step up finally? Can Quas pick Karthus again to win? Can IWillDominate steal something? Can Cop AA someone? Can BunnyFuFuu play something not named Thresh and Karma which might be first picked by Dignitas if Annie and Thresh are banned? Even more questions, even less answers.

But time to move on. 5 teams are behind the line, 3 are above. So, who will face Team Coast?
Oh well, who else.
COUNTER LOGIC GAMING. #InCLGSeason4IBelieve CLG CLG CLG. Minute of cheers is ended.

Counter Logic Gaming finished two previous seasons with 13-15. Now they finished with 18-10.
Counter Logic Gaming were 4-5 when dexter was still in Europe, and they're 14-5 after dexter's comeback. All hail lord MonteCristo.
Formerly known as Team Slowpoke, dragging almost every possible game to 40+ minute mark because only star can play only hypercarries. Ohwell. Now CLG are the fastest team in the league, based on fast-paced rotations, punishing freezed lanes and getting to throat fast and furiously.
Link having his best LCS season, making plays and winning games, Doublelift and Aphromoo never lose in 2v2 and going ham when needed, dexter is rotating fast around the map.
Only weak link in this team is Nien. No, i'm not saying actually that Nien is bad, he's not bad. He just mediocre in toplane, and he needs to step up like in his moments of brilliance.
But every point of pressure will be on Doublelift's shoulders. Will he trashtalk before semifinals against TSM? Ofc he will. Will CLG win? Probably no, but who cares? He will be called out if he doesn't perform and he knows it. Can he reclaim status of biggest star in NA from Meteos and Bjergsen? Who will he summon to protect CLG's stronghold which is still getting patiently rebuilded? Noone knows but...

CLG CLG CLG
#InCLGSeason4IBelieve.


Sorry again, let's continue.

But there are two teams who just hold immense records.

Team Solo Mid have 22-6, but they're 1-3 against Cloud 9. Getting rolled against Teemo? Check. Getting rolled with Reginald in 8th time? Check. Getting rolled just because of C9 being superior? Check.
Only win is against Meteos's experimental Fiddlesticks pick, k. Guess, TSM has big problems if they reach finals against their friendly rivals.

Even though, TSM were good this season to say the least. Bjergsen probably hadn't matched mancloud's numbers from last season (thanks to based EU visa) but he's still heart of this team.
Bjergsen performs? TSM wins. Bjergsen doesn't perform? TSM are just transparent.
WIll WildTurtle and Xpecial perform against Doublelift and Aphromoo? How many times will Dyrus get cockblocked? Will Bjergsen counterpick Link or will he show his hand early? Can TheOddOne be more impactful than dexter? Probably yes, probably no. Noone knows how will stars allign in that day, the Derby Day.

And finally.
Cloud 9. 24-4 after being 25-3(30-3). 49-7(54-7). Can they get 5 more wins this season? Probably they can.
Undisputable best team in NA right now, best chokers on international arena.
Balls is immense. Can he be shut down? Ye, he can but you need to spend a lot to do it. Worth?
Meteos is immense. Can he be shut down? Probably, but what about Balls?
Hai is so-so. Do you need him to be shut down? Yes. But will you have enough to shut down three guys already?
Sneaky and LemonNation are hit-or-miss. Can they be shut down? Yes. Do you need to shut them down? That's the thing.

CLG or TSM and even Dignitas/Curse need to think about pick/ban phases more than about game itself. Do you need to ban Thresh? Do you need to ban Renekton? Do you need to ban Lulu? Kha'Zix? Evelynn? More powerpicks?

Predictions:

CLG 2-0 Coast. CLG rolled Coast 4-0, only glimmer of hope for Coast is Shiphtur but dexter has enough aces in sleeve to shut him down. Teamfighting, rotations and decisionmaking are on CLG's side as well, no reason to think that Doublelift, Link and Aphromoo won't perform here.
Dignitas 2-1 Curse, will be close game, slight favour to Dig, Curse are just soooo inconsistent.
Coast 2-0 Curse after it, Shiphtur and Zion to carry, IWD to steal at least one dragon/Baron Nashor in this series, Voyboy and crew to play CLB and win 3-1, EG 3-1 C9T, XDG 1-3 LMQ.

CLG 2-1 TSM, i will make bold prediction because my heart wants it, TSM are still favoured but all eyes will be on Rush Hour and Bjergsen for me. Ofc teams will 2v1, ofc every drake will matter, ofc Dyrus and Nien are mediocre. But if Bjergsen is shut down - there is no TSM, if Doublelift is shut down, there is no CLG.
C9 2-0 Dignitas, i totally see Dignitas taking at least game from C9, but those guys are 8-0 in BoX series in domestic competitions with this roster. Okay? K. Players to watch - Hai/LemonNation and Crumbzz/Goldenglue.

TSM 2-0 Dignitas, Bjergsen will make his final delivery and go to AllStars, everything here will be on Crumbzz/TOO, who will perform better, will make his team proud.
C9 3-1 CLG. I definitely see CLG getting at least one or even two games from Cloud Nine but i don't see them winning whole thing yet. Summer will matter, Doublelift will go on AllStars with Bjergsen.
Everything here will be on botlanes, if they actually have opportunity to lane against each other and not 2v1 trade two towers. Link and Hai are players to watch for sure, they're both playmaking shotcallers for their respective teams so who performs better will get his team a victory.

Satisfied with read? Dunno, i doubt because i'm bad.
But let's wait, right? Playoffs give me hope all the time.

"After all this time? Always, until the end" .



*
LiquidLegends StaffFPL 25 #1 | tfw I cast games on-air | back-to-back Liquibet winner
Kupon3ss
Profile Joined May 2008
時の回廊10066 Posts
April 09 2014 01:55 GMT
#2
lmq
When in doubt, just believe in yourself and press buttons
CreationSoul
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Romania231 Posts
April 09 2014 10:25 GMT
#3
great analysis.

I once had a debate with a friend if NA or EU teams are better. This was after LCS summer season last year and he argued that NA teams were better as they were more consistent.

Even now, the fact that EU LCS is so close, makes it hard to compare the two regions. Are EU LCS on an average level better than NA LCS teams, or are they just more inconsistent.

On a side note, I think the "closeness" of the EU LCS is better for the EU scene, than the top3-bottom5 case that is in NA.
Quitting is the easy way out...
oo_Wonderful_oo
Profile Blog Joined December 2013
The land of freedom23126 Posts
April 09 2014 17:11 GMT
#4
On April 09 2014 19:25 CreationSoul wrote:
great analysis.

I once had a debate with a friend if NA or EU teams are better. This was after LCS summer season last year and he argued that NA teams were better as they were more consistent.

Even now, the fact that EU LCS is so close, makes it hard to compare the two regions. Are EU LCS on an average level better than NA LCS teams, or are they just more inconsistent.

On a side note, I think the "closeness" of the EU LCS is better for the EU scene, than the top3-bottom5 case that is in NA.


Mid-level is way higher for EU, NA-top can definitely fight against EU-top but with consistent Cloud 9 choking against Fnatic and neo-TSM + neo-CLG it's hard to estimate right.

Thing is that if you put someone from NA who is not CLG, TSM or C9 into EU LCS, they will be somewhere on Wolves/SHC level as best if not dead last.
LiquidLegends StaffFPL 25 #1 | tfw I cast games on-air | back-to-back Liquibet winner
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