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2012/2013 ProLeague Round 1 Review

Blogs > pdc
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pdc
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
23 Posts
December 12 2012 02:16 GMT
#1
It's early days but let's look at what we can tell from the first week of play in the 2012-2013 ProLeague to help improve our Fantasy ProLeague teams. In a lot of ways, this is the first time we are seeing many of the KeSPA players in action. There have of course been the recent successes of players like Rain, soO and Bogus, but a lot of the players participating in the ProLeague have had little to no SC2 exposure. These first round of matches gives us a chance to evaluate these players ourselves to see how they are fairing with the transition to SC2.

Firstly, we can see that Rain is already leading the point scoring, and with a value of $12, we would expect this. However he did pick up all 6 of his points this week from winning the Ace match (+1 for being selected as Ace, +4 for winning, and +1 for his team winning). Rain has already proven that he can compete with the best when it comes to SC2, but in order to justify his high value within your team, he would have to be not only be chosen, but also winning these Ace matches often throughout the season. But with a team containing Rain and soO, as well as other players with great potential in SC2, not to mention their head coach BoxeR, it'd be a risk to say this team would be going to the Ace match regularly (especially against Woongjin Stars in their next round, who lost 4-1 in their own first round match to CJ Entus). We can also see that even tho he was a top scorer in this weeks round of play, his trade value decreased, indicating that his current price is inflated. If Rain is in your team, you may want to consider trading him in for now, and rebuying him when his value stabilises at something more reasonable.

Looking at our other top scoring player, Team 8's BaBy, we see some positives for the future. While he did lose his game to Reality, we can see that his team think that he is still the player to win them the match as they put him in the Ace. And we can't say they were wrong, with BaBy looking comfortable as he took out Shine with mech play. While he is nicely priced at $7, we can already see that his value is rising early on in this season. While you may want to jump ship with Rain, consider BaBy as the ship that you jump onto. If he can start to win his regular games this season, then it might be worth picking him up now to fully enjoy his future successes, particularly as BaBy's Team 8 come up against KT Rolster next week, a matchup that could definately go to the Ace. And if it does, what are the chances that Flash will represent KT Rolster? And who did Flash recently lose to in his Code A match? BaBy. Something to think about...

Now on the other end of the scale, we have Trap and Shine, the two players who were chosen for the Ace match but came out the losers, scoring -1 points overall this week. It is interesting to note that in this first week of play, each of the 4 players that were chosen for the Ace match did not win their own maps; Rain lost to Bogus, Trap lost to soO, BaBy lost to Reality and Shine lost to Jaehoon. This is a telling point as it shows us which players the 4 teams have confidence in to win the Ace match. Now you can use this to your advantage, and perhaps trade out a player in your team for someone like Shine, who sits very cheaply at 4, or Trap at 7, both of which are dropping due to their first round totals of -1. But as previously mentioned, if their team has faith in them to win the Ace match, one would expect them to be winning their other maps too. Furthermore, when you consider that if they had won their individual map, they would have gained 2 points, giving them an overall score of +1. So this might be just the time to considering picking up one of these two players, before they hit some form and their value rises.

If we check the standings we see that TerrorTerran scored a cool 30 points this week thanks to a series of solid picks. But was it possible to do better? To find out, let's look at the ProLeague Week 1 Dream Team.

With a total value of $29, The following main team would have netted you the full 34 points.
6 - (T)BaBy
4 - (Z)Action
4 - (T)Bbyong
4 - (P)BeSt
4 - (Z)Hydra
4 - (Z)Ryul2
8 - KT Rolster
Total Point Score: 34
Total Value: $29

However we can achieve the same point score with cheaper players, so the ProLeague Week 1 Dream Team is:
Main:
6 - (T)BaBy
4 - (Z)Action
4 - (Z)Hydra
4 - (Z)Ryul2
4 - (T)Speed
4 - (P)Wooki
8 - KT Rolster
Total Point Score: 34
Total Value: $23

Anti:
-1 - (P)Trap
-1 - (Z)Shine
0 - (Z)Jaedong/(Z)SoulKey
Total Point Score: 2
Total Value: $19

Overall Score: 36

Cya next week!

pdc

***
monk
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States8476 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-12-12 02:57:31
December 12 2012 02:24 GMT
#2
Jw, how did you determine this dream team? I used linear optimization to determine the best team and that team is worth 38 points, not 36. The main team my program popped out was worth 36 points with a cost of 27. You can read more about it in this week's proleague review. Doing this by hand isn't really viable in later weeks, and even when you doing it by hand in the first week, you made mistakes.
Moderator
pdc
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
23 Posts
December 12 2012 05:10 GMT
#3
I was going to write something fancy but a brute force approach in perl turned out to be quick enough.

I can't see how you can get 38 points. To do so you would need to have Rain + BaBy + KT Rolster = 12 + 7 + 3 = $22 for 6 + 6 + 8 = 20 points. If we have the same anti team, thats brings us up to 22. 16 points left to get 38, with only $8 for your remaining 4 players, and there only exists 2 such players who scored 4 points, Ryul2 and Speed. The rest are $3 and above, and all the $1 players didn't score enough points. So I dont believe you can get to 38 with $30.
monk
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States8476 Posts
December 12 2012 05:25 GMT
#4
Ah, I see what I did wrong. I'll fix it sometime tomorrow. Thanks!
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