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Group A
Genius > NaNiwa
Virus > SuperNoVa
Genius > Virus
NaNiwa > SuperNoVa
NaNiwa > Virus
Genius and NaNiwa advance to Ro8
Group B
Mvp > July
HerO > Leenock
Mvp > HerO
Leenock > July
Leenock > HerO
Mvp and Leenock advance to Ro8
Group C
PartinG > TheStC
TaeJa > MarineKing
PartinG > TaeJa
MarineKing > TheStC
TaeJa > MarineKing
PartinG and TaeJa advance to Ro8
Group D
MC > Maru
Oz > Squirtle
Oz > MC
Maru > Squirtle
MC > Maru
Oz and MC advance to Ro8
Ro8
Genius > Leenock
MC > PartinG
Mvp - NaNiwa
TaeJa > Oz
Ro4
Genius > MC
Mvp / NaNiwa > Taeja
Finals
Genius > Mvp / NaNiwa
don't wanna speculate so much on Mvp vs NaNiwa, but either one has the capabilities to take down TaeJa IMO. this is just how I feel it would go. any thoughts?
Poll: Percentage of this prediction being successful?You suck at this (0%) (28) 65% 20% (5) 12% 10% (3) 7% Spot on! (100%) (2) 5% 70% (1) 2% 60% (1) 2% 50% (1) 2% 40% (1) 2% 30% (1) 2% 90% (0) 0% 80% (0) 0% 43 total votes Your vote: Percentage of this prediction being successful? (Vote): Spot on! (100%)
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One of the terrans will get out of group A. I'm hoping for supernova but recently, its safer to pick virus. Genius and nani is a toss up (hehe)
Both zergs will fall out of group B
I'm not gonna try to predict C, everyone's too fucking good. Honestly I think group C will produce both finalists, but at least 1 will come out of that pool.
Maru shouldn't make it out of D, squirtle is too good right now and between Oz and MC, one of them will win a pvt series.
Hoping for an 6 protoss ro8 though, with Mvp and MKP making it out
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On April 16 2012 13:04 Juliette wrote:
One of the terrans will get out of group A. I'm hoping for supernova but recently, its safer to pick virus. Genius and nani is a toss up (hehe)
Both zergs will fall out of group B
I'm not gonna try to predict C, everyone's too fucking good. Honestly I think group C will produce both finalists, but at least 1 will come out of that pool.
Maru shouldn't make it out of D, squirtle is too good right now and between Oz and MC, one of them will win a pvt series.
Hoping for an 6 protoss ro8 though, with Mvp and MKP making it out
I did consider that about Squirtle though. But Maru is beasting recently too and he only needs to practice TvP for this...
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That's a good point. Statistically, vP is his worst matchup, but its still really unproven at 6-7. His only series this year is his win over hero, 2-1 last round, which Hero admitted to kinda messing up. I haven't watched his games enough to know his tvp style...
the thing is i actually dont mind anyone still alive winning a gsl
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Pretty fine except you have taeja beating MKP twice, can't go along with that, OR HAVING MVP LOSE IN THE FINALS!!!
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On April 16 2012 13:08 ElusoryX wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2012 13:04 Juliette wrote:
One of the terrans will get out of group A. I'm hoping for supernova but recently, its safer to pick virus. Genius and nani is a toss up (hehe)
Both zergs will fall out of group B
I'm not gonna try to predict C, everyone's too fucking good. Honestly I think group C will produce both finalists, but at least 1 will come out of that pool.
Maru shouldn't make it out of D, squirtle is too good right now and between Oz and MC, one of them will win a pvt series.
Hoping for an 6 protoss ro8 though, with Mvp and MKP making it out I did consider that about Squirtle though. But Maru is beasting recently too and he only needs to practice TvP for this...
I don't think Oz or Maru will make it our. MC and Parting have some of the best PvP in the works, and really good PvT while Oz only has PvP that he he excels at. If Oz can make it past both MC & Parting then he could advance, but the second he faces Maru is where he drops out.
I think it'll be a Virus vs Squirtle final though.
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On April 16 2012 13:14 MonkSEA wrote:
I think it'll be a Virus vs Squirtle final though.
PartinG has a good shot, but I'd put money on this being correct
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On April 16 2012 13:17 Juliette wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2012 13:14 MonkSEA wrote:
I think it'll be a Virus vs Squirtle final though. PartinG has a good shot, but I'd put money on this being correct
this is very possible..
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the chances of this being correct is less then 0.00000000001%
There are over 20 outcomes that you are trying to predict, in succession. Even assuming you could predict with a 90% accuracy, you still would require a ridiculous amount of luck.
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Taeja has a better chance against Parting and a worse chance against Marineking than you may be estimating. Other than that, it seems reasonable, though of course statistically this is unlikely to happen. The chance is at least .0006%.
Explanation in spoiler.
+ Show Spoiler +
In each group, there are six combinations of people who could advance. Assuming that everyone has a 50/50 chance (just go along with it), the odds that your predictions will be right for the round of 16 alone are (1/6)^4, or 1/1296. Then, multiply that by the odds of your 4 selected players advancing from the ro8 (1/2)^4, which is 1/16, and the odds are now 1/20736. For the ro4 divide by 4, and then divide by 2 for the finals, and the odds are 1/165888, or ~.000603%. Since some players are known to be slightly better than others, your odds will be somewhat higher. But not by enough to make predictions worthwhile.
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Group A
Genius<Naniwa
Virus<Supernova
Naniwa<Supernova
Genius>Virus
Genius<Naniwa
Naniwa, Supernova to ro8
Group B
MVP<July
Hero>Leenock
July<Hero
MVP>Leenock
MVP<July
July, Hero advance to ro8
Group C
Parting>TheSTC
Taeja<MKP
Parting<MKP
TheSTC<Taeja
Taeja>Parting
Taeja, MKP advance to ro8
Group D
MC<Maru
OZ>Squirtle
OZ<Maru
MC<Squirtle
Squirtle<OZ
Oz, Maru advance to ro8
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On April 16 2012 13:29 GeZZa07 wrote:
the chances of this being correct is less then 0.00000000001%
There are over 20 outcomes that you are trying to predict, in succession. Even assuming you could predict with a 90% accuracy, you still would require a ridiculous amount of luck.
ok well... maybe I should have phrased it as 'percentage of the whole thing being correct'
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I think Naniwa just needs to use Squirtle's unbeatable build and he'll be sailing through the group
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Group A
Genius < NaNiwa
Virus < SuperNoVa
SuperNoVa > NaNiwa
Genius > Virus
Genius > NaNiwa
SuperNoVa and Genius advance to Ro8
Group B
Mvp > July
HerO > Leenock
Mvp > HerO
Leenock > July
Leenock > HerO
Mvp and Leenock advance to Ro8
Group C
PartinG > TheStC
TaeJa > MarineKing
PartinG < TaeJa
MarineKing > TheStC
Parting < MarineKing
MarineKing and TaeJa advance to Ro8
Group D
MC > Maru
Oz > Squirtle
Oz > MC
Maru < Squirtle
Squirtle> MC
Oz and Squirtle advance to Ro8
Ro8
Leenock > SuperNoVa
Taeja > Oz
Mvp > Genius
MKP > Squirtle
Ro4
Taeja > Leenock
Mvp > MKP
Finals
MVP > Taeja
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I'm gonna say July has stopped hibernating to make one more deep run in GSL Code S. The panda is hungry. lol
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Wow what an insane amount of wishful thinking - you actually have a foreigner (or a chance for him) in the finals of the GSL 
While most of us would like something like that, even not looking at any of your other predictions - the chances of naniwa reaching the finals are EXTREMELY small. He himself said his goal is to "maybe win one more bo3"
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I definitely would not have Naniwa or Genius going that far - MVP getting far is more likely, but he could be upset in the ro4 or finals, given his wrist condition.
I may be biased as an MKP fanboy, but I think he has a shot at getting out of his group, and if he does he's got a pretty good chance of making it as far as the finals.
I'm liking the recent form of TheStC and Maru too, but those groups are really hard to call.
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I'm thinking it will be an MKP - Squirtle final.
Don't ask why, just a feeling. My liquibet sucks, so I wouldn't put any stock into it.
I think Nani might make it to Ro8, but he'll probably get knocked out at that point. Group C will definitely produce a finalist.
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On April 16 2012 13:28 ElusoryX wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2012 13:17 Juliette wrote:On April 16 2012 13:14 MonkSEA wrote:
I think it'll be a Virus vs Squirtle final though. PartinG has a good shot, but I'd put money on this being correct this is very possible..
Agree, doesn't seem the most reasonable at first, but it does in fact make a ton of sense.
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EPT
