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hOn_sin will crush IrOn.
LETS GO WJS TERRAN
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On November 13 2012 00:06 ragz_gt wrote:Show nested quote +On November 13 2012 00:01 TheBB wrote:Well, for what it's worth, here you are. Dark, Hyvaa, Sin, Center, Brave and Brain don't have ratings yet, so those matches are not included. Most even: Jangbi vs Shine. Biggest favourite: Squirtle. + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler [JYP vs. Noblesse] +JYP vs. Noblesse
JYP wins (57.12%):
2-0: 29.99%
2-1: 27.13%
Noblesse wins (42.88%):
2-0: 20.46%
2-1: 22.41%
Most likely winner: JYP (57.12%)
Most likely outcome: JYP 2-0 Noblesse (29.99%) San vs. IMHappy
San wins (59.50%):
2-0: 31.77%
2-1: 27.73%
IMHappy wins (40.50%):
2-0: 19.04%
2-1: 21.46%
Most likely winner: San (59.50%)
Most likely outcome: San 2-0 IMHappy (31.77%) Sparta vs. Fantasy
Sparta wins (21.10%):
2-0: 8.76%
2-1: 12.34%
Fantasy wins (78.90%):
2-0: 49.56%
2-1: 29.34%
Most likely winner: Fantasy (78.90%)
Most likely outcome: Sparta 0-2 Fantasy (49.56%) Maru vs. LosirA
Maru wins (36.09%):
2-0: 16.50%
2-1: 19.59%
LosirA wins (63.91%):
2-0: 35.27%
2-1: 28.65%
Most likely winner: LosirA (63.91%)
Most likely outcome: Maru 0-2 LosirA (35.27%) Sirius vs. Jaedong
Sirius wins (45.65%):
2-0: 22.18%
2-1: 23.47%
Jaedong wins (54.35%):
2-0: 27.99%
2-1: 26.36%
Most likely winner: Jaedong (54.35%)
Most likely outcome: Sirius 0-2 Jaedong (27.99%) BBoongBBoong vs. jjakji
BBoongBBoong wins (38.88%):
2-0: 18.09%
2-1: 20.79%
jjakji wins (61.12%):
2-0: 33.03%
2-1: 28.09%
Most likely winner: jjakji (61.12%)
Most likely outcome: BBoongBBoong 0-2 jjakji (33.03%) Dream vs. Rain
Dream wins (24.29%):
2-0: 10.30%
2-1: 13.99%
Rain wins (75.71%):
2-0: 46.11%
2-1: 29.60%
Most likely winner: Rain (75.71%)
Most likely outcome: Dream 0-2 Rain (46.11%) SuperNova vs. First
SuperNova wins (60.83%):
2-0: 32.80%
2-1: 28.03%
First wins (39.17%):
2-0: 18.26%
2-1: 20.91%
Most likely winner: SuperNova (60.83%)
Most likely outcome: SuperNova 2-0 First (32.80%) Bomber vs. ClassicPrime
Bomber wins (69.42%):
2-0: 40.02%
2-1: 29.41%
ClassicPrime wins (30.58%):
2-0: 13.50%
2-1: 17.08%
Most likely winner: Bomber (69.42%)
Most likely outcome: Bomber 2-0 ClassicPrime (40.02%) Bbyong vs. TAiLS
Bbyong wins (33.96%):
2-0: 15.32%
2-1: 18.65%
TAiLS wins (66.04%):
2-0: 37.04%
2-1: 28.99%
Most likely winner: TAiLS (66.04%)
Most likely outcome: Bbyong 0-2 TAiLS (37.04%) Heart vs. NesTea
Heart wins (54.22%):
2-0: 27.90%
2-1: 26.32%
NesTea wins (45.78%):
2-0: 22.26%
2-1: 23.52%
Most likely winner: Heart (54.22%)
Most likely outcome: Heart 2-0 NesTea (27.90%) ByuN vs. Sang
ByuN wins (71.69%):
2-0: 42.12%
2-1: 29.57%
Sang wins (28.31%):
2-0: 12.32%
2-1: 15.99%
Most likely winner: ByuN (71.69%)
Most likely outcome: ByuN 2-0 Sang (42.12%) aLive vs. Flying
aLive wins (59.13%):
2-0: 31.49%
2-1: 27.64%
Flying wins (40.87%):
2-0: 19.26%
2-1: 21.61%
Most likely winner: aLive (59.13%)
Most likely outcome: aLive 2-0 Flying (31.49%) ShinefOu vs. JangBi
ShinefOu wins (49.20%):
2-0: 24.47%
2-1: 24.73%
JangBi wins (50.80%):
2-0: 25.54%
2-1: 25.26%
Most likely winner: JangBi (50.80%)
Most likely outcome: ShinefOu 0-2 JangBi (25.54%) Squirtle vs. Miya
Squirtle wins (83.00%):
2-0: 54.46%
2-1: 28.54%
Miya wins (17.00%):
2-0: 6.86%
2-1: 10.13%
Most likely winner: Squirtle (83.00%)
Most likely outcome: Squirtle 2-0 Miya (54.46%) Mini vs. YongHwa
Mini wins (19.06%):
2-0: 7.81%
2-1: 11.25%
YongHwa wins (80.94%):
2-0: 51.93%
2-1: 29.02%
Most likely winner: YongHwa (80.94%)
Most likely outcome: Mini 0-2 YongHwa (51.93%) MMA vs. ByuL
MMA wins (67.72%):
2-0: 38.50%
2-1: 29.22%
ByuL wins (32.28%):
2-0: 14.40%
2-1: 17.87%
Most likely winner: MMA (67.72%)
Most likely outcome: MMA 2-0 ByuL (38.50%) Trap vs. asd
Trap wins (69.31%):
2-0: 39.92%
2-1: 29.39%
asd wins (30.69%):
2-0: 13.56%
2-1: 17.13%
Most likely winner: Trap (69.31%)
Most likely outcome: Trap 2-0 asd (39.92%) All your most likely outcome are 2-0... not sure if make sense
Actually, under the model I'm using, it's always the case that a 2-0 is more likely than a 2-1. Suppose the best player has probability p to win any single game, and the other guy has probability 1-p. Then
p > 0.5
1-p < 0.5
Now, the probability of a 2-0 for the best player is p^2, and the probability of a 2-1 is 2(1-p)p^2 = 2(1-p) times the probability of a 2-0.
This factor 2(1-p) is always less than 1 (since 1-p < 0.5), so the probability of 2-1 is always smaller.
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On November 13 2012 00:06 ragz_gt wrote:Show nested quote +On November 13 2012 00:01 TheBB wrote:Well, for what it's worth, here you are. Dark, Hyvaa, Sin, Center, Brave and Brain don't have ratings yet, so those matches are not included. Most even: Jangbi vs Shine. Biggest favourite: Squirtle. + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler [JYP vs. Noblesse] +JYP vs. Noblesse
JYP wins (57.12%):
2-0: 29.99%
2-1: 27.13%
Noblesse wins (42.88%):
2-0: 20.46%
2-1: 22.41%
Most likely winner: JYP (57.12%)
Most likely outcome: JYP 2-0 Noblesse (29.99%) San vs. IMHappy
San wins (59.50%):
2-0: 31.77%
2-1: 27.73%
IMHappy wins (40.50%):
2-0: 19.04%
2-1: 21.46%
Most likely winner: San (59.50%)
Most likely outcome: San 2-0 IMHappy (31.77%) Sparta vs. Fantasy
Sparta wins (21.10%):
2-0: 8.76%
2-1: 12.34%
Fantasy wins (78.90%):
2-0: 49.56%
2-1: 29.34%
Most likely winner: Fantasy (78.90%)
Most likely outcome: Sparta 0-2 Fantasy (49.56%) Maru vs. LosirA
Maru wins (36.09%):
2-0: 16.50%
2-1: 19.59%
LosirA wins (63.91%):
2-0: 35.27%
2-1: 28.65%
Most likely winner: LosirA (63.91%)
Most likely outcome: Maru 0-2 LosirA (35.27%) Sirius vs. Jaedong
Sirius wins (45.65%):
2-0: 22.18%
2-1: 23.47%
Jaedong wins (54.35%):
2-0: 27.99%
2-1: 26.36%
Most likely winner: Jaedong (54.35%)
Most likely outcome: Sirius 0-2 Jaedong (27.99%) BBoongBBoong vs. jjakji
BBoongBBoong wins (38.88%):
2-0: 18.09%
2-1: 20.79%
jjakji wins (61.12%):
2-0: 33.03%
2-1: 28.09%
Most likely winner: jjakji (61.12%)
Most likely outcome: BBoongBBoong 0-2 jjakji (33.03%) Dream vs. Rain
Dream wins (24.29%):
2-0: 10.30%
2-1: 13.99%
Rain wins (75.71%):
2-0: 46.11%
2-1: 29.60%
Most likely winner: Rain (75.71%)
Most likely outcome: Dream 0-2 Rain (46.11%) SuperNova vs. First
SuperNova wins (60.83%):
2-0: 32.80%
2-1: 28.03%
First wins (39.17%):
2-0: 18.26%
2-1: 20.91%
Most likely winner: SuperNova (60.83%)
Most likely outcome: SuperNova 2-0 First (32.80%) Bomber vs. ClassicPrime
Bomber wins (69.42%):
2-0: 40.02%
2-1: 29.41%
ClassicPrime wins (30.58%):
2-0: 13.50%
2-1: 17.08%
Most likely winner: Bomber (69.42%)
Most likely outcome: Bomber 2-0 ClassicPrime (40.02%) Bbyong vs. TAiLS
Bbyong wins (33.96%):
2-0: 15.32%
2-1: 18.65%
TAiLS wins (66.04%):
2-0: 37.04%
2-1: 28.99%
Most likely winner: TAiLS (66.04%)
Most likely outcome: Bbyong 0-2 TAiLS (37.04%) Heart vs. NesTea
Heart wins (54.22%):
2-0: 27.90%
2-1: 26.32%
NesTea wins (45.78%):
2-0: 22.26%
2-1: 23.52%
Most likely winner: Heart (54.22%)
Most likely outcome: Heart 2-0 NesTea (27.90%) ByuN vs. Sang
ByuN wins (71.69%):
2-0: 42.12%
2-1: 29.57%
Sang wins (28.31%):
2-0: 12.32%
2-1: 15.99%
Most likely winner: ByuN (71.69%)
Most likely outcome: ByuN 2-0 Sang (42.12%) aLive vs. Flying
aLive wins (59.13%):
2-0: 31.49%
2-1: 27.64%
Flying wins (40.87%):
2-0: 19.26%
2-1: 21.61%
Most likely winner: aLive (59.13%)
Most likely outcome: aLive 2-0 Flying (31.49%) ShinefOu vs. JangBi
ShinefOu wins (49.20%):
2-0: 24.47%
2-1: 24.73%
JangBi wins (50.80%):
2-0: 25.54%
2-1: 25.26%
Most likely winner: JangBi (50.80%)
Most likely outcome: ShinefOu 0-2 JangBi (25.54%) Squirtle vs. Miya
Squirtle wins (83.00%):
2-0: 54.46%
2-1: 28.54%
Miya wins (17.00%):
2-0: 6.86%
2-1: 10.13%
Most likely winner: Squirtle (83.00%)
Most likely outcome: Squirtle 2-0 Miya (54.46%) Mini vs. YongHwa
Mini wins (19.06%):
2-0: 7.81%
2-1: 11.25%
YongHwa wins (80.94%):
2-0: 51.93%
2-1: 29.02%
Most likely winner: YongHwa (80.94%)
Most likely outcome: Mini 0-2 YongHwa (51.93%) MMA vs. ByuL
MMA wins (67.72%):
2-0: 38.50%
2-1: 29.22%
ByuL wins (32.28%):
2-0: 14.40%
2-1: 17.87%
Most likely winner: MMA (67.72%)
Most likely outcome: MMA 2-0 ByuL (38.50%) Trap vs. asd
Trap wins (69.31%):
2-0: 39.92%
2-1: 29.39%
asd wins (30.69%):
2-0: 13.56%
2-1: 17.13%
Most likely winner: Trap (69.31%)
Most likely outcome: Trap 2-0 asd (39.92%) All your most likely outcome are 2-0... not sure if make sense BTW, think you can incorporate something like Bill James' temperature gauge?
Actually, mathematically, 2-0 for the favorite is always going to be the most likely outcome.
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On November 13 2012 00:01 TheBB wrote:Well, for what it's worth, here you are. Dark, Hyvaa, Sin, Center, Brave and Brain don't have ratings yet, so those matches are not included. Most even: Jangbi vs Shine. Biggest favourite: Squirtle. + Show Spoiler [JYP vs. Noblesse] +JYP vs. Noblesse
JYP wins (57.12%):
2-0: 29.99%
2-1: 27.13%
Noblesse wins (42.88%):
2-0: 20.46%
2-1: 22.41%
Most likely winner: JYP (57.12%)
Most likely outcome: JYP 2-0 Noblesse (29.99%) Maru vs. LosirA
Maru wins (36.09%):
2-0: 16.50%
2-1: 19.59%
LosirA wins (63.91%):
2-0: 35.27%
2-1: 28.65%
Most likely winner: LosirA (63.91%)
Most likely outcome: Maru 0-2 LosirA (35.27%) Bbyong vs. TAiLS
Bbyong wins (33.96%):
2-0: 15.32%
2-1: 18.65%
TAiLS wins (66.04%):
2-0: 37.04%
2-1: 28.99%
Most likely winner: TAiLS (66.04%)
Most likely outcome: Bbyong 0-2 TAiLS (37.04%) ByuN vs. Sang
ByuN wins (71.69%):
2-0: 42.12%
2-1: 29.57%
Sang wins (28.31%):
2-0: 12.32%
2-1: 15.99%
Most likely winner: ByuN (71.69%)
Most likely outcome: ByuN 2-0 Sang (42.12%) aLive vs. Flying
aLive wins (59.13%):
2-0: 31.49%
2-1: 27.64%
Flying wins (40.87%):
2-0: 19.26%
2-1: 21.61%
Most likely winner: aLive (59.13%)
Most likely outcome: aLive 2-0 Flying (31.49%) Squirtle vs. Miya
Squirtle wins (83.00%):
2-0: 54.46%
2-1: 28.54%
Miya wins (17.00%):
2-0: 6.86%
2-1: 10.13%
Most likely winner: Squirtle (83.00%)
Most likely outcome: Squirtle 2-0 Miya (54.46%) MMA vs. ByuL
MMA wins (67.72%):
2-0: 38.50%
2-1: 29.22%
ByuL wins (32.28%):
2-0: 14.40%
2-1: 17.87%
Most likely winner: MMA (67.72%)
Most likely outcome: MMA 2-0 ByuL (38.50%) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + Show Spoiler [ShinefOu vs. JangBi] +ShinefOu vs. JangBi
ShinefOu wins (49.20%):
2-0: 24.47%
2-1: 24.73%
JangBi wins (50.80%):
2-0: 25.54%
2-1: 25.26%
Most likely winner: JangBi (50.80%)
Most likely outcome: ShinefOu 0-2 JangBi (25.54%)
I hope the most likely results above the line happen... and it's freaking amazing how close this one is below the line....
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On November 13 2012 00:11 TheBB wrote:Show nested quote +On November 13 2012 00:06 ragz_gt wrote:On November 13 2012 00:01 TheBB wrote:Well, for what it's worth, here you are. Dark, Hyvaa, Sin, Center, Brave and Brain don't have ratings yet, so those matches are not included. Most even: Jangbi vs Shine. Biggest favourite: Squirtle. + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler [JYP vs. Noblesse] +JYP vs. Noblesse
JYP wins (57.12%):
2-0: 29.99%
2-1: 27.13%
Noblesse wins (42.88%):
2-0: 20.46%
2-1: 22.41%
Most likely winner: JYP (57.12%)
Most likely outcome: JYP 2-0 Noblesse (29.99%) San vs. IMHappy
San wins (59.50%):
2-0: 31.77%
2-1: 27.73%
IMHappy wins (40.50%):
2-0: 19.04%
2-1: 21.46%
Most likely winner: San (59.50%)
Most likely outcome: San 2-0 IMHappy (31.77%) Sparta vs. Fantasy
Sparta wins (21.10%):
2-0: 8.76%
2-1: 12.34%
Fantasy wins (78.90%):
2-0: 49.56%
2-1: 29.34%
Most likely winner: Fantasy (78.90%)
Most likely outcome: Sparta 0-2 Fantasy (49.56%) Maru vs. LosirA
Maru wins (36.09%):
2-0: 16.50%
2-1: 19.59%
LosirA wins (63.91%):
2-0: 35.27%
2-1: 28.65%
Most likely winner: LosirA (63.91%)
Most likely outcome: Maru 0-2 LosirA (35.27%) Sirius vs. Jaedong
Sirius wins (45.65%):
2-0: 22.18%
2-1: 23.47%
Jaedong wins (54.35%):
2-0: 27.99%
2-1: 26.36%
Most likely winner: Jaedong (54.35%)
Most likely outcome: Sirius 0-2 Jaedong (27.99%) BBoongBBoong vs. jjakji
BBoongBBoong wins (38.88%):
2-0: 18.09%
2-1: 20.79%
jjakji wins (61.12%):
2-0: 33.03%
2-1: 28.09%
Most likely winner: jjakji (61.12%)
Most likely outcome: BBoongBBoong 0-2 jjakji (33.03%) Dream vs. Rain
Dream wins (24.29%):
2-0: 10.30%
2-1: 13.99%
Rain wins (75.71%):
2-0: 46.11%
2-1: 29.60%
Most likely winner: Rain (75.71%)
Most likely outcome: Dream 0-2 Rain (46.11%) SuperNova vs. First
SuperNova wins (60.83%):
2-0: 32.80%
2-1: 28.03%
First wins (39.17%):
2-0: 18.26%
2-1: 20.91%
Most likely winner: SuperNova (60.83%)
Most likely outcome: SuperNova 2-0 First (32.80%) Bomber vs. ClassicPrime
Bomber wins (69.42%):
2-0: 40.02%
2-1: 29.41%
ClassicPrime wins (30.58%):
2-0: 13.50%
2-1: 17.08%
Most likely winner: Bomber (69.42%)
Most likely outcome: Bomber 2-0 ClassicPrime (40.02%) Bbyong vs. TAiLS
Bbyong wins (33.96%):
2-0: 15.32%
2-1: 18.65%
TAiLS wins (66.04%):
2-0: 37.04%
2-1: 28.99%
Most likely winner: TAiLS (66.04%)
Most likely outcome: Bbyong 0-2 TAiLS (37.04%) Heart vs. NesTea
Heart wins (54.22%):
2-0: 27.90%
2-1: 26.32%
NesTea wins (45.78%):
2-0: 22.26%
2-1: 23.52%
Most likely winner: Heart (54.22%)
Most likely outcome: Heart 2-0 NesTea (27.90%) ByuN vs. Sang
ByuN wins (71.69%):
2-0: 42.12%
2-1: 29.57%
Sang wins (28.31%):
2-0: 12.32%
2-1: 15.99%
Most likely winner: ByuN (71.69%)
Most likely outcome: ByuN 2-0 Sang (42.12%) aLive vs. Flying
aLive wins (59.13%):
2-0: 31.49%
2-1: 27.64%
Flying wins (40.87%):
2-0: 19.26%
2-1: 21.61%
Most likely winner: aLive (59.13%)
Most likely outcome: aLive 2-0 Flying (31.49%) ShinefOu vs. JangBi
ShinefOu wins (49.20%):
2-0: 24.47%
2-1: 24.73%
JangBi wins (50.80%):
2-0: 25.54%
2-1: 25.26%
Most likely winner: JangBi (50.80%)
Most likely outcome: ShinefOu 0-2 JangBi (25.54%) Squirtle vs. Miya
Squirtle wins (83.00%):
2-0: 54.46%
2-1: 28.54%
Miya wins (17.00%):
2-0: 6.86%
2-1: 10.13%
Most likely winner: Squirtle (83.00%)
Most likely outcome: Squirtle 2-0 Miya (54.46%) Mini vs. YongHwa
Mini wins (19.06%):
2-0: 7.81%
2-1: 11.25%
YongHwa wins (80.94%):
2-0: 51.93%
2-1: 29.02%
Most likely winner: YongHwa (80.94%)
Most likely outcome: Mini 0-2 YongHwa (51.93%) MMA vs. ByuL
MMA wins (67.72%):
2-0: 38.50%
2-1: 29.22%
ByuL wins (32.28%):
2-0: 14.40%
2-1: 17.87%
Most likely winner: MMA (67.72%)
Most likely outcome: MMA 2-0 ByuL (38.50%) Trap vs. asd
Trap wins (69.31%):
2-0: 39.92%
2-1: 29.39%
asd wins (30.69%):
2-0: 13.56%
2-1: 17.13%
Most likely winner: Trap (69.31%)
Most likely outcome: Trap 2-0 asd (39.92%) All your most likely outcome are 2-0... not sure if make sense Actually, under the model I'm using, it's always the case that a 2-0 is more likely than a 2-1. Suppose the best player has probability p to win any single game, and the other guy has probability 1-p. Then p > 0.5 1-p < 0.5 Now, the probability of a 2-0 for the best player is p^2, and the probability of a 2-1 is 2(1-p)p^2 = 2(1-p) times the probability of a 2-0. This factor 2(1-p) is always less than 1 (since 1-p < 0.5), so the probability of 2-1 is always smaller.
Ah I thought by most likely you meant "expected outcome", not "outcome that comes out the most in simulation". That makes more sense
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Magic Woods9326 Posts
I really hope Bbyong makes it ~_~
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I remember a year ago in Code A you could always tell who would make it through. Now its just..... damn, so stacked.
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On November 13 2012 00:27 Epoxide wrote:
I really hope Bbyong makes it ~_~
After watching his Code A games last season and Code S games this season... I really hope he loses... His play really isn't at the caliber of the others I've been watching all year... He sort of lucked out with his bracket last season... Hopefully TAiLS can make it past the ro48 for once this season... He's always fun to watch...
edit - By "lucked out" I mean he faced First, Genius, and Heart... and won all three matches with a 2-1 score... Right below him there was Creator, aLive, ByuN, and MC in one bracket... talk about underwhelming bracket being right above overwhelming bracket... ~_~
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On November 13 2012 00:26 ragz_gt wrote:Show nested quote +On November 13 2012 00:11 TheBB wrote:On November 13 2012 00:06 ragz_gt wrote:On November 13 2012 00:01 TheBB wrote:Well, for what it's worth, here you are. Dark, Hyvaa, Sin, Center, Brave and Brain don't have ratings yet, so those matches are not included. Most even: Jangbi vs Shine. Biggest favourite: Squirtle. + Show Spoiler ++ Show Spoiler [JYP vs. Noblesse] +JYP vs. Noblesse
JYP wins (57.12%):
2-0: 29.99%
2-1: 27.13%
Noblesse wins (42.88%):
2-0: 20.46%
2-1: 22.41%
Most likely winner: JYP (57.12%)
Most likely outcome: JYP 2-0 Noblesse (29.99%) San vs. IMHappy
San wins (59.50%):
2-0: 31.77%
2-1: 27.73%
IMHappy wins (40.50%):
2-0: 19.04%
2-1: 21.46%
Most likely winner: San (59.50%)
Most likely outcome: San 2-0 IMHappy (31.77%) Sparta vs. Fantasy
Sparta wins (21.10%):
2-0: 8.76%
2-1: 12.34%
Fantasy wins (78.90%):
2-0: 49.56%
2-1: 29.34%
Most likely winner: Fantasy (78.90%)
Most likely outcome: Sparta 0-2 Fantasy (49.56%) Maru vs. LosirA
Maru wins (36.09%):
2-0: 16.50%
2-1: 19.59%
LosirA wins (63.91%):
2-0: 35.27%
2-1: 28.65%
Most likely winner: LosirA (63.91%)
Most likely outcome: Maru 0-2 LosirA (35.27%) Sirius vs. Jaedong
Sirius wins (45.65%):
2-0: 22.18%
2-1: 23.47%
Jaedong wins (54.35%):
2-0: 27.99%
2-1: 26.36%
Most likely winner: Jaedong (54.35%)
Most likely outcome: Sirius 0-2 Jaedong (27.99%) BBoongBBoong vs. jjakji
BBoongBBoong wins (38.88%):
2-0: 18.09%
2-1: 20.79%
jjakji wins (61.12%):
2-0: 33.03%
2-1: 28.09%
Most likely winner: jjakji (61.12%)
Most likely outcome: BBoongBBoong 0-2 jjakji (33.03%) Dream vs. Rain
Dream wins (24.29%):
2-0: 10.30%
2-1: 13.99%
Rain wins (75.71%):
2-0: 46.11%
2-1: 29.60%
Most likely winner: Rain (75.71%)
Most likely outcome: Dream 0-2 Rain (46.11%) SuperNova vs. First
SuperNova wins (60.83%):
2-0: 32.80%
2-1: 28.03%
First wins (39.17%):
2-0: 18.26%
2-1: 20.91%
Most likely winner: SuperNova (60.83%)
Most likely outcome: SuperNova 2-0 First (32.80%) Bomber vs. ClassicPrime
Bomber wins (69.42%):
2-0: 40.02%
2-1: 29.41%
ClassicPrime wins (30.58%):
2-0: 13.50%
2-1: 17.08%
Most likely winner: Bomber (69.42%)
Most likely outcome: Bomber 2-0 ClassicPrime (40.02%) Bbyong vs. TAiLS
Bbyong wins (33.96%):
2-0: 15.32%
2-1: 18.65%
TAiLS wins (66.04%):
2-0: 37.04%
2-1: 28.99%
Most likely winner: TAiLS (66.04%)
Most likely outcome: Bbyong 0-2 TAiLS (37.04%) Heart vs. NesTea
Heart wins (54.22%):
2-0: 27.90%
2-1: 26.32%
NesTea wins (45.78%):
2-0: 22.26%
2-1: 23.52%
Most likely winner: Heart (54.22%)
Most likely outcome: Heart 2-0 NesTea (27.90%) ByuN vs. Sang
ByuN wins (71.69%):
2-0: 42.12%
2-1: 29.57%
Sang wins (28.31%):
2-0: 12.32%
2-1: 15.99%
Most likely winner: ByuN (71.69%)
Most likely outcome: ByuN 2-0 Sang (42.12%) aLive vs. Flying
aLive wins (59.13%):
2-0: 31.49%
2-1: 27.64%
Flying wins (40.87%):
2-0: 19.26%
2-1: 21.61%
Most likely winner: aLive (59.13%)
Most likely outcome: aLive 2-0 Flying (31.49%) ShinefOu vs. JangBi
ShinefOu wins (49.20%):
2-0: 24.47%
2-1: 24.73%
JangBi wins (50.80%):
2-0: 25.54%
2-1: 25.26%
Most likely winner: JangBi (50.80%)
Most likely outcome: ShinefOu 0-2 JangBi (25.54%) Squirtle vs. Miya
Squirtle wins (83.00%):
2-0: 54.46%
2-1: 28.54%
Miya wins (17.00%):
2-0: 6.86%
2-1: 10.13%
Most likely winner: Squirtle (83.00%)
Most likely outcome: Squirtle 2-0 Miya (54.46%) Mini vs. YongHwa
Mini wins (19.06%):
2-0: 7.81%
2-1: 11.25%
YongHwa wins (80.94%):
2-0: 51.93%
2-1: 29.02%
Most likely winner: YongHwa (80.94%)
Most likely outcome: Mini 0-2 YongHwa (51.93%) MMA vs. ByuL
MMA wins (67.72%):
2-0: 38.50%
2-1: 29.22%
ByuL wins (32.28%):
2-0: 14.40%
2-1: 17.87%
Most likely winner: MMA (67.72%)
Most likely outcome: MMA 2-0 ByuL (38.50%) Trap vs. asd
Trap wins (69.31%):
2-0: 39.92%
2-1: 29.39%
asd wins (30.69%):
2-0: 13.56%
2-1: 17.13%
Most likely winner: Trap (69.31%)
Most likely outcome: Trap 2-0 asd (39.92%) All your most likely outcome are 2-0... not sure if make sense Actually, under the model I'm using, it's always the case that a 2-0 is more likely than a 2-1. Suppose the best player has probability p to win any single game, and the other guy has probability 1-p. Then p > 0.5 1-p < 0.5 Now, the probability of a 2-0 for the best player is p^2, and the probability of a 2-1 is 2(1-p)p^2 = 2(1-p) times the probability of a 2-0. This factor 2(1-p) is always less than 1 (since 1-p < 0.5), so the probability of 2-1 is always smaller. Ah I thought by most likely you meant "expected outcome", not "outcome that comes out the most in simulation". That makes more sense
Yep!
Btw, your question inspired this.
I really need to get back to work now, lol.
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LOL great! keep up the good work!
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YongHwa will drop out of GSL in a random PvP and all is right in the SC2 world...
Looks like some great match-ups, GSL's player quality is insane.
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I can't see MVP not making it back into code s. Even without hands and a neck, he outclasses the people in his bracket.
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On November 13 2012 00:48 Wintex wrote:
Go Bomber! ^_^
Guaranteed round 2 at least by his top 1 in the world TvP... Sorry, Classic.
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Well, here's what I think (and hope) will happen:
+ Show Spoiler +Taeja > Dark (Taeja's just more experienced and solid all around)
Genius > hyvaa (Genius is usually wonky, but when in-form, he is a dominating force in PvZ)
JYP > Noblesse (JYP has worked hard on closing his holes on PvT, and has some decent wins as of late in the match-up)
Happy < San (Happy is more of a TvT and TvZ specialist than a TvPer, while San has been in good form as of late)
Sparta < Fantasy (Fantasy is really good with TvTs, and has most likely improved much more under BoxeR's tutelage)
MC > Bravo (Come on, it's MC.)
Maru < LosirA (Maru has been off his game as of late, and LosirA looks like he has something to prove)
Sirius < Jaedong (Jaedong's interview reveals that he's taking the game a lot more seriously now. We all know what that means)
B4 < jjakji (Back in jjakji's heyday, he was a monster of TvZ. Maybe he's gotten a bit of that luster back)
Rain > Dream (It's hard to have good dreams in the rainy season)
Supernova > First (Supernova is still a scary player when he's on groove, even with the recent disappointing results)
Bomber > Classic (Bomber is back, as proven when he narrowly lost to Stephano in a best of 9, a score of 4-5)
bbyong < TAILS (TAILS should be able to show his GSTL strengths in GSL sooner or later)
Heart < Nestea (Nestea looks a little bit revitalized after spending some time in the qualifiers)
Byun > Terminator (Byun is crazy strong when on point)
Seed > Center (Seed disappointed in this season, but he's still a very strong player)
Shine < jangbi (It's taken a while for jangbi to get in-form, but now that he has, he should be pretty strong)
Squirtle < Miya (For all Miya's whining about ZvP, Zergs in the late-game are almost unstoppable)
mini < YongHwa (YongHwa's first Code A. I doubt he's planning to go back to Code B)
Flash > Brave (Flash is strong at TvP. He's also Flash)
Baby > Brain (Baby has more experience sadly)
MMA > Byul (Get back to Code S, MMA. You don't belong in Code A)
Trap > asd (asd is more TvT. This is the only wild guess I have though)
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Poor Genius ;( zerg in first round..
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Worst matchup is probably Seed versus Center.
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I think we're now at the point where there is little distinction between Code A/S.
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EPT
