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race v race statistics based on 551 "top" replays

Forum Index > SC2 General
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bingobango
Profile Joined August 2010
26 Posts
September 21 2010 12:49 GMT
#1
TLDR: NOT SCIENTIFIC. That said.... happy patch day zerg.

So I've been been working on a replay aggregation site focusing on top players in all gateways. It's been running for a few weeks now and I have 551 "top" player replays (in non-mirror matches). I've chosen to aggregate only sites that have top replays, so top is fairly loosely defined here (but suffice to say it's all very high diamond).

This is seriously not scientific but fun nonetheless.

Here's the breakdown:

zvt
Zerg • 72 wins • 41.86%
Terran • 100 wins • 58.14%
based on: 172 replays

zvp
Zerg • 42 wins • 35.29%
Protoss • 77 wins • 64.71%
based on: 119 replays

pvt
Protoss • 114 wins • 43.85%
Terran • 146 wins • 56.15%
based on: 260 replays

Here's my current stats page:

http://replayspider.com/stats/

I want to flesh this out a bit more (esp. break it down by gateway), but if you have any other ideas or feedback, I'd love to hear it.


ChickenLips
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
2912 Posts
September 21 2010 12:51 GMT
#2
AMIGAWD PvZ is imbalanced

Zerg • 42 wins • 35.29%
Protoss • 77 wins • 64.71%

bleh
a bigger sample and this might actually be interesting :/
❤Ƹ̵̡Ӝ̵̨̄Ʒ✿
bingobango
Profile Joined August 2010
26 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-09-21 12:52:50
September 21 2010 12:52 GMT
#3
The sample is too small, I agree, which is why I didn't release this earlier. v1.0 ends today so it won't be getting any bigger . It'll be fully automated though, so hopefully throughout v1.1 the sample size will get much larger.
comis
Profile Joined April 2010
United States333 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-09-21 12:56:37
September 21 2010 12:54 GMT
#4
First off, don't let the ensuing statistics argument deter you, I like this idea. However, most replay sites include game length and map which I think would be pretty nifty info to have as well. I think it's a cool idea and would like to see your report fleshed out and maybe prettied a bit for public consumption.

EDIT: Can't forget version # as well - it'd be nice to see a history of stats through patches rather than just stats off the current patch pool of replays / clumping them all together
Black Gun
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Germany4482 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-09-21 12:58:54
September 21 2010 12:56 GMT
#5
the sample size itself would be fine under certain conditions. the problem i see here is that many of the players created more than one replay in this sample size, so the influence of some few outstanding players is very big. and mindgames play a big role when the same 2 players play again and again, often times in a row in some tournament boX series.


but im not really surprised to see pvz even more imba than tvz. didnt idra once say that pvz is currently considered the most imbalanced matchup in korea?
im also not surprised to see a tvp imba not too far away from the tvz imba. basically, all the Z whining about tvz has overshadowed the fact that pvz and tvp are slightly imbalanced aswell.
"What am I supposed to do against this?" - "Lose!" :-]
Krohm
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
Canada1857 Posts
September 21 2010 13:00 GMT
#6
zvp
Zerg • 42 wins • 35.29%
Protoss • 77 wins • 64.71%
based on: 119 replays


WAT


I find that hard to believe, I have a much easier time in ZvP than any other MU when I am zerg.


The rest doesn't surprise me at all though.
Not bad for a cat toy.
GreEny K
Profile Joined February 2008
Germany7312 Posts
September 21 2010 13:00 GMT
#7
I'd say that those are surprisingly close considering the game just came out. Just a little tweaking required, either that or some races have more developed strategies than others.
Why would you ever choose failure, when success is an option.
GreEny K
Profile Joined February 2008
Germany7312 Posts
September 21 2010 13:01 GMT
#8
On September 21 2010 22:00 Krohm wrote:
zvp
Zerg • 42 wins • 35.29%
Protoss • 77 wins • 64.71%
based on: 119 replays


WAT


I find that hard to believe, I have a much easier time in ZvP than any other MU when I am zerg.


The rest doesn't surprise me at all though.


Maybe you just have a knack for ZvP?
Why would you ever choose failure, when success is an option.
x7i
Profile Joined July 2010
United Kingdom122 Posts
September 21 2010 13:08 GMT
#9
and who is uploading those replays? do you have access to every game those players play, or are those: look how badly i got beaten/awesome i am random replays ?
if anything try analysing replays from tourneys [
Zarahtra
Profile Joined May 2010
Iceland4053 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-09-21 13:25:20
September 21 2010 13:11 GMT
#10
That's interesting and will deffo be more interesting with a larger sample size. Like someone above me said, having further anazlyses such as win% after x time length would even make this better(if it was possible)

Edit: This cannot be taken to seriously though, atleast not until very very big sample size.
kickinhead
Profile Joined December 2008
Switzerland2069 Posts
September 21 2010 13:19 GMT
#11
On September 21 2010 21:51 ChickenLips wrote:
AMIGAWD PvZ is imbalanced

Zerg • 42 wins • 35.29%
Protoss • 77 wins • 64.71%

bleh
a bigger sample and this might actually be interesting :/


pvz is just as bad as tvz, just cuz Terran is the topic Nr.1, noone talks about how bad pvz is.

tvp is messed up as well: T is imba early to midgame and toss steamroll them in a macrogame...
https://soundcloud.com/thesamplethief
Too_MuchZerg
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
Finland2818 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-09-21 17:43:41
September 21 2010 13:24 GMT
#12
had some extra games added, removed because data is wrong.
iPlaY.NettleS
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Australia4420 Posts
September 21 2010 13:29 GMT
#13
On September 21 2010 22:24 Too_MuchZerg wrote:
All TLPD games from international version (9 maps used)

TvZ: 163-107 (60.4%)
ZvP: 66-90 (42.3%)
PvT: 212-216 (49.5%)

Mirrors:
TvT: 423
ZvZ: 12
PvP: 118

Total games 2261 :
1121 (49.6%)
438 (19.4%)
702 (31.0%)

are these stats legit?
423 TvT and only 12 ZvZ and 118 PvP?
that alone signifies imbalance i think , so many people wanting to play terran
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7PvoI6gvQs
TheFinalWord
Profile Joined May 2010
Australia790 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-09-21 13:34:59
September 21 2010 13:32 GMT
#14
On September 21 2010 22:00 Krohm wrote:
zvp
Zerg • 42 wins • 35.29%
Protoss • 77 wins • 64.71%
based on: 119 replays


WAT


I find that hard to believe, I have a much easier time in ZvP than any other MU when I am zerg.


The rest doesn't surprise me at all though.

Maybe its a psychological effect of everyone complaining about zvt spiriling into a neverending loop of more complaining and percieved imbalance... or maybe it's just a small sample size.
edit:
On September 21 2010 22:29 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
that alone signifies imbalance i think , so many people wanting to play terran
lol, no. People uploading lots of tvt's to liquipedia does not signify imbalance.
Black Gun
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Germany4482 Posts
September 21 2010 13:35 GMT
#15
On September 21 2010 22:29 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 21 2010 22:24 Too_MuchZerg wrote:
All TLPD games from international version (9 maps used)

TvZ: 163-107 (60.4%)
ZvP: 66-90 (42.3%)
PvT: 212-216 (49.5%)

Mirrors:
TvT: 423
ZvZ: 12
PvP: 118

Total games 2261 :
1121 (49.6%)
438 (19.4%)
702 (31.0%)

are these stats legit?
423 TvT and only 12 ZvZ and 118 PvP?
that alone signifies imbalance i think , so many people wanting to play terran



i vouch this. the high amount of tvts can be explained for example (not necessarily) by terran players being more successful in tournaments, and thus meeting in tvts in the semis and finals of these tournaments.

just like the most obvious indicator of battle royal´s zerg imbalance was not the 10-2 zvt stats but that there were 30-something zvzs compared to some 15 non-zvzs combined.
"What am I supposed to do against this?" - "Lose!" :-]
Kinky
Profile Blog Joined September 2008
United States4126 Posts
September 21 2010 13:35 GMT
#16
Seems like the whining about ZvT overshadows the real problems in ZvP
kickinhead
Profile Joined December 2008
Switzerland2069 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-09-21 13:39:05
September 21 2010 13:38 GMT
#17
On September 21 2010 22:35 Kinky wrote:
Seems like the whining about ZvT overshadows the real problems in ZvP


nah, the problems for Z in both MU's are legit, I rly don't undrstand hy no1 rly whines about toss...
https://soundcloud.com/thesamplethief
Too_MuchZerg
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
Finland2818 Posts
Last Edited: 2010-09-21 17:44:09
September 21 2010 13:40 GMT
#18
On September 21 2010 22:29 iPlaY.NettleS wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 21 2010 22:24 Too_MuchZerg wrote:
All TLPD games from international version (9 maps used)

TvZ: 163-107 (60.4%)
ZvP: 66-90 (42.3%)
PvT: 212-216 (49.5%)

Mirrors:
TvT: 423
ZvZ: 12
PvP: 118

Total games 2261 :
1121 (49.6%)
438 (19.4%)
702 (31.0%)

are these stats legit?
423 TvT and only 12 ZvZ and 118 PvP?
that alone signifies imbalance i think , so many people wanting to play terran


data was wrong
hmunkey
Profile Joined August 2010
United Kingdom1973 Posts
September 21 2010 13:41 GMT
#19
Random replays don't mean anything. That said, I do feel z is underpowered based on total ladder results and tournament placements.
bbulzibar
Profile Joined June 2010
United States80 Posts
September 21 2010 13:44 GMT
#20
Love the site, I would like to see a breakdown by map too! Also, is the same replay (uploaded to multiple sites) counted as unique games? If so, maybe there is a way to filter down to unique games based on map/players/game length.
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