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[NSSL] Grand Finals Season 1 2015 - Page 8

Forum Index > StarCraft 2 Tournaments
Post a Reply
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The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52798 Posts
March 20 2015 11:57 GMT
#141
On March 20 2015 20:55 OtherWorld wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 20 2015 20:01 Jer99 wrote:
TvT YEESSSSSSS HAHAHAHA

You're happy because we'll get to see Wolf's hair more often than the actual games?

No, Jer99 is a Terran player
ModeratorI am still alive, somehow
TL+ Member
Jer99
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Canada8160 Posts
March 20 2015 12:00 GMT
#142
On March 20 2015 20:55 OtherWorld wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 20 2015 20:01 Jer99 wrote:
TvT YEESSSSSSS HAHAHAHA

You're happy because we'll get to see Wolf's hair more often than the actual games?


You'll see soon enough why I'm happy
StrategyTaeJa #1 || @TL_Jer99 || "seeker seeked out his seeking"
OtherWorld
Profile Blog Joined October 2013
France17333 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-03-20 12:09:19
March 20 2015 12:08 GMT
#143
On March 20 2015 20:57 The_Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 20 2015 20:55 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 20 2015 20:01 Jer99 wrote:
TvT YEESSSSSSS HAHAHAHA

You're happy because we'll get to see Wolf's hair more often than the actual games?

No, Jer99 is a Terran player

You can be a Terran player and appreciate Wolf's hair and dislike how TvT currently plays out though d:

On March 20 2015 21:00 Jer99 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 20 2015 20:55 OtherWorld wrote:
On March 20 2015 20:01 Jer99 wrote:
TvT YEESSSSSSS HAHAHAHA

You're happy because we'll get to see Wolf's hair more often than the actual games?


You'll see soon enough why I'm happy

Could it be that a TLStrat article about TvT is in the works? Because I really have a hard time believing that this finals will be great d:
Used Sigs - New Sigs - Cheap Sigs - Buy the Best Cheap Sig near You at www.cheapsigforsale.com
Jer99
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Canada8160 Posts
March 20 2015 12:13 GMT
#144
What a crazy crazy assumption
StrategyTaeJa #1 || @TL_Jer99 || "seeker seeked out his seeking"
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17750 Posts
March 20 2015 17:03 GMT
#145
16 hours left! HYPE!
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Edpayasugo
Profile Joined April 2013
United Kingdom2223 Posts
March 20 2015 18:22 GMT
#146
hype hype hype
FlaSh MMA INnoVation FanTaSy MKP TY Ryung | soO Dark Rogue | HuK PartinG Stork State
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17750 Posts
March 20 2015 20:01 GMT
#147
On March 15 2015 12:48 Die4Ever wrote:
WCS Predictor 2015
StarLeague Season 1 Finals
+ Show Spoiler [Road to the Finals] +
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Blizzcon Chances
-----------------------------------------------------------------
[image loading]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
WCS Wars Values
-----------------------------------------------------------------
[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler [Grouped Events] +
17.01% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream gets 1st place in StarLeague Season 1
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 99.06%

16.28% of the time.
Dream gets 12th place in StarLeague Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 69.35%

4.55% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream gets 20th place in StarLeague Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 58.52%

2.61% of the time.
Dream gets 4th place in GSL Code S Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 99.25%

1.06% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code S Season 3 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 100 %

4.64% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream gets 12th place in StarLeague Season 3 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 97.56%

40.45% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 84.63%

0.83% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code S Season 3 and
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 100 %

0.52% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream gets 2nd place in GSL Code S Season 2 and
Dream wins their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 100 %

45.71% of the time.
Maru gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Maru wins their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Maru's chances
from 99.9% to 100 %

4.89% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in StarLeague Qualifiers Season 3 and
Dream gets 12th place in StarLeague Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 78.59%

14.37% of the time.
Maru gets 1st place in GSL Qualifiers Season 3 and
Maru gets 1st place in StarLeague Season 1
This would change Maru's chances
from 99.9% to 100 %

12.97% of the time.
Maru gets 1st place in StarLeague Season 1 and
Maru gets 8th place in StarLeague Season 3
This would change Maru's chances
from 99.9% to 100 %


kr Maru vs kr Dream in
in StarLeague Season 1 finals.
kr Maru is at 99.9% Blizzcon Chances.
70.42% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.99%.
29.58% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.67%.
kr Dream is at 83.64% Blizzcon Chances.
29.58% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 97.8%.
70.42% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 77.7%.

should be the final update on this
"Expert" mods4ever.com
chipmonklord17
Profile Joined February 2011
United States11944 Posts
March 20 2015 20:25 GMT
#148
On March 21 2015 05:01 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 15 2015 12:48 Die4Ever wrote:
WCS Predictor 2015
StarLeague Season 1 Finals
+ Show Spoiler [Road to the Finals] +
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Blizzcon Chances
-----------------------------------------------------------------
[image loading]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
WCS Wars Values
-----------------------------------------------------------------
[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler [Grouped Events] +
17.01% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream gets 1st place in StarLeague Season 1
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 99.06%

16.28% of the time.
Dream gets 12th place in StarLeague Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 69.35%

4.55% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream gets 20th place in StarLeague Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 58.52%

2.61% of the time.
Dream gets 4th place in GSL Code S Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 99.25%

1.06% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code S Season 3 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 100 %

4.64% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream gets 12th place in StarLeague Season 3 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 97.56%

40.45% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 84.63%

0.83% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code S Season 3 and
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 100 %

0.52% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream gets 2nd place in GSL Code S Season 2 and
Dream wins their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 100 %

45.71% of the time.
Maru gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Maru wins their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Maru's chances
from 99.9% to 100 %

4.89% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in StarLeague Qualifiers Season 3 and
Dream gets 12th place in StarLeague Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 78.59%

14.37% of the time.
Maru gets 1st place in GSL Qualifiers Season 3 and
Maru gets 1st place in StarLeague Season 1
This would change Maru's chances
from 99.9% to 100 %

12.97% of the time.
Maru gets 1st place in StarLeague Season 1 and
Maru gets 8th place in StarLeague Season 3
This would change Maru's chances
from 99.9% to 100 %


kr Maru vs kr Dream in
in StarLeague Season 1 finals.
kr Maru is at 99.9% Blizzcon Chances.
70.42% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.99%.
29.58% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.67%.
kr Dream is at 83.64% Blizzcon Chances.
29.58% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 97.8%.
70.42% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 77.7%.

should be the final update on this


How do Maru/Life have a 100% chance of being at blizzcon already?
Packawana
Profile Joined August 2011
United States1081 Posts
March 20 2015 20:34 GMT
#149
On March 21 2015 05:25 chipmonklord17 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 21 2015 05:01 Die4Ever wrote:
On March 15 2015 12:48 Die4Ever wrote:
WCS Predictor 2015
StarLeague Season 1 Finals
+ Show Spoiler [Road to the Finals] +
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Blizzcon Chances
-----------------------------------------------------------------
[image loading]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
WCS Wars Values
-----------------------------------------------------------------
[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler [Grouped Events] +
17.01% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream gets 1st place in StarLeague Season 1
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 99.06%

16.28% of the time.
Dream gets 12th place in StarLeague Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 69.35%

4.55% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream gets 20th place in StarLeague Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 58.52%

2.61% of the time.
Dream gets 4th place in GSL Code S Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 99.25%

1.06% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code S Season 3 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 100 %

4.64% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream gets 12th place in StarLeague Season 3 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 97.56%

40.45% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 84.63%

0.83% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code S Season 3 and
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 100 %

0.52% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream gets 2nd place in GSL Code S Season 2 and
Dream wins their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 100 %

45.71% of the time.
Maru gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Maru wins their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Maru's chances
from 99.9% to 100 %

4.89% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in StarLeague Qualifiers Season 3 and
Dream gets 12th place in StarLeague Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 78.59%

14.37% of the time.
Maru gets 1st place in GSL Qualifiers Season 3 and
Maru gets 1st place in StarLeague Season 1
This would change Maru's chances
from 99.9% to 100 %

12.97% of the time.
Maru gets 1st place in StarLeague Season 1 and
Maru gets 8th place in StarLeague Season 3
This would change Maru's chances
from 99.9% to 100 %


kr Maru vs kr Dream in
in StarLeague Season 1 finals.
kr Maru is at 99.9% Blizzcon Chances.
70.42% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.99%.
29.58% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.67%.
kr Dream is at 83.64% Blizzcon Chances.
29.58% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 97.8%.
70.42% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 77.7%.

should be the final update on this


How do Maru/Life have a 100% chance of being at blizzcon already?


Finals of a premier tournament and winning an outside tournament outright I think should be enough for secure you in the higher 10s.
"May all your dreaming fill the empty sky."
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17750 Posts
March 20 2015 20:35 GMT
#150
On March 21 2015 05:25 chipmonklord17 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 21 2015 05:01 Die4Ever wrote:
On March 15 2015 12:48 Die4Ever wrote:
WCS Predictor 2015
StarLeague Season 1 Finals
+ Show Spoiler [Road to the Finals] +
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Blizzcon Chances
-----------------------------------------------------------------
[image loading]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
WCS Wars Values
-----------------------------------------------------------------
[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler [Grouped Events] +
17.01% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream gets 1st place in StarLeague Season 1
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 99.06%

16.28% of the time.
Dream gets 12th place in StarLeague Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 69.35%

4.55% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream gets 20th place in StarLeague Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 58.52%

2.61% of the time.
Dream gets 4th place in GSL Code S Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 99.25%

1.06% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code S Season 3 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 100 %

4.64% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream gets 12th place in StarLeague Season 3 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 97.56%

40.45% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 84.63%

0.83% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code S Season 3 and
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 100 %

0.52% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream gets 2nd place in GSL Code S Season 2 and
Dream wins their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 100 %

45.71% of the time.
Maru gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Maru wins their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Maru's chances
from 99.9% to 100 %

4.89% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in StarLeague Qualifiers Season 3 and
Dream gets 12th place in StarLeague Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 78.59%

14.37% of the time.
Maru gets 1st place in GSL Qualifiers Season 3 and
Maru gets 1st place in StarLeague Season 1
This would change Maru's chances
from 99.9% to 100 %

12.97% of the time.
Maru gets 1st place in StarLeague Season 1 and
Maru gets 8th place in StarLeague Season 3
This would change Maru's chances
from 99.9% to 100 %


kr Maru vs kr Dream in
in StarLeague Season 1 finals.
kr Maru is at 99.9% Blizzcon Chances.
70.42% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.99%.
29.58% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.67%.
kr Dream is at 83.64% Blizzcon Chances.
29.58% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 97.8%.
70.42% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 77.7%.

should be the final update on this


How do Maru/Life have a 100% chance of being at blizzcon already?

Not 100% yet. The AFK Chances (what their Blizzcon Chances are if they earn no more points and lose everything remaining) are 93.87% for Life, 92.56% for herO, and 24.19% for Maru.
"Expert" mods4ever.com
KelsierSC
Profile Blog Joined March 2013
United Kingdom10443 Posts
March 20 2015 20:38 GMT
#151
Cheering for my boy dream

go go SKT

Zerg for Life
geokilla
Profile Joined May 2011
Canada8255 Posts
March 20 2015 20:57 GMT
#152
Where is the Team Liquid preview thread?!
The_Templar
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
your Country52798 Posts
March 20 2015 21:01 GMT
#153
On March 21 2015 05:57 geokilla wrote:
Where is the Team Liquid preview thread?!

It will be posted soontm.
ModeratorI am still alive, somehow
TL+ Member
karl1ok
Profile Joined December 2014
Norway85 Posts
March 20 2015 21:28 GMT
#154
I'm so hyped for this, shame my friend in Korea has to fly to Japan like 3 hours before games starts. Getting up early in the weekend to watch SC2 = best use of time
sOs | soO | Snute | MC, farewell sweet prince | Solar | Patience | ForGG | Stardust
royalroadweed
Profile Joined April 2013
United States8301 Posts
March 20 2015 21:29 GMT
#155
On March 21 2015 06:01 The_Templar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 21 2015 05:57 geokilla wrote:
Where is the Team Liquid preview thread?!

It will be posted soontm.

Wouldn't be TL unless its out just 4 hours before it starts >.>
"Nerfing Toss can just make them stronger"
KingAlphard
Profile Blog Joined August 2012
Italy1705 Posts
March 20 2015 21:58 GMT
#156
On March 21 2015 05:35 Die4Ever wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 21 2015 05:25 chipmonklord17 wrote:
On March 21 2015 05:01 Die4Ever wrote:
On March 15 2015 12:48 Die4Ever wrote:
WCS Predictor 2015
StarLeague Season 1 Finals
+ Show Spoiler [Road to the Finals] +
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Blizzcon Chances
-----------------------------------------------------------------
[image loading]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
WCS Wars Values
-----------------------------------------------------------------
[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler [Grouped Events] +
17.01% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream gets 1st place in StarLeague Season 1
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 99.06%

16.28% of the time.
Dream gets 12th place in StarLeague Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 69.35%

4.55% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream gets 20th place in StarLeague Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 58.52%

2.61% of the time.
Dream gets 4th place in GSL Code S Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 99.25%

1.06% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code S Season 3 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 100 %

4.64% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream gets 12th place in StarLeague Season 3 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 97.56%

40.45% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 84.63%

0.83% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code S Season 3 and
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 100 %

0.52% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream gets 2nd place in GSL Code S Season 2 and
Dream wins their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 100 %

45.71% of the time.
Maru gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Maru wins their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Maru's chances
from 99.9% to 100 %

4.89% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in StarLeague Qualifiers Season 3 and
Dream gets 12th place in StarLeague Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 78.59%

14.37% of the time.
Maru gets 1st place in GSL Qualifiers Season 3 and
Maru gets 1st place in StarLeague Season 1
This would change Maru's chances
from 99.9% to 100 %

12.97% of the time.
Maru gets 1st place in StarLeague Season 1 and
Maru gets 8th place in StarLeague Season 3
This would change Maru's chances
from 99.9% to 100 %


kr Maru vs kr Dream in
in StarLeague Season 1 finals.
kr Maru is at 99.9% Blizzcon Chances.
70.42% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.99%.
29.58% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.67%.
kr Dream is at 83.64% Blizzcon Chances.
29.58% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 97.8%.
70.42% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 77.7%.

should be the final update on this


How do Maru/Life have a 100% chance of being at blizzcon already?

Not 100% yet. The AFK Chances (what their Blizzcon Chances are if they earn no more points and lose everything remaining) are 93.87% for Life, 92.56% for herO, and 24.19% for Maru.


That's pretty high considering both Life and hero wouldn't have enough to points to qualify if the cutoff was the same as Blizzcon 2014 (3200)?
Die4Ever
Profile Joined August 2010
United States17750 Posts
March 20 2015 22:24 GMT
#157
On March 21 2015 06:58 KingAlphard wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 21 2015 05:35 Die4Ever wrote:
On March 21 2015 05:25 chipmonklord17 wrote:
On March 21 2015 05:01 Die4Ever wrote:
On March 15 2015 12:48 Die4Ever wrote:
WCS Predictor 2015
StarLeague Season 1 Finals
+ Show Spoiler [Road to the Finals] +
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Blizzcon Chances
-----------------------------------------------------------------
[image loading]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
WCS Wars Values
-----------------------------------------------------------------
[image loading]

+ Show Spoiler [Grouped Events] +
17.01% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream gets 1st place in StarLeague Season 1
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 99.06%

16.28% of the time.
Dream gets 12th place in StarLeague Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 69.35%

4.55% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream gets 20th place in StarLeague Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 58.52%

2.61% of the time.
Dream gets 4th place in GSL Code S Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 99.25%

1.06% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code S Season 3 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 100 %

4.64% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream gets 12th place in StarLeague Season 3 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 97.56%

40.45% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 84.63%

0.83% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code S Season 3 and
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 100 %

0.52% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Dream gets 2nd place in GSL Code S Season 2 and
Dream wins their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 100 %

45.71% of the time.
Maru gets 1st place in GSL Code A Season 2 and
Maru wins their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Maru's chances
from 99.9% to 100 %

4.89% of the time.
Dream gets 1st place in StarLeague Qualifiers Season 3 and
Dream gets 12th place in StarLeague Season 2 and
Dream loses their next match in the StarLeague Season 1 finals
This would change Dream's chances
from 83.64% to 78.59%

14.37% of the time.
Maru gets 1st place in GSL Qualifiers Season 3 and
Maru gets 1st place in StarLeague Season 1
This would change Maru's chances
from 99.9% to 100 %

12.97% of the time.
Maru gets 1st place in StarLeague Season 1 and
Maru gets 8th place in StarLeague Season 3
This would change Maru's chances
from 99.9% to 100 %


kr Maru vs kr Dream in
in StarLeague Season 1 finals.
kr Maru is at 99.9% Blizzcon Chances.
70.42% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.99%.
29.58% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 99.67%.
kr Dream is at 83.64% Blizzcon Chances.
29.58% of the time they win this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 97.8%.
70.42% of the time they lose this match and their Blizzcon Chances go to 77.7%.

should be the final update on this


How do Maru/Life have a 100% chance of being at blizzcon already?

Not 100% yet. The AFK Chances (what their Blizzcon Chances are if they earn no more points and lose everything remaining) are 93.87% for Life, 92.56% for herO, and 24.19% for Maru.


That's pretty high considering both Life and hero wouldn't have enough to points to qualify if the cutoff was the same as Blizzcon 2014 (3200)?

The cutoff is predicted to be lower right now, I think mostly because of placeholder tournaments with randomized attendance. Also the merger of WCS AM and WCS EU means the points are less spread out. Even the addition of SSL just means the same players get more points, it's unlikely that we'll see all different semifinalists for all 6 seasons. The biggest concern I have right now is how the KeSPA Cups are going to be, there's supposed to be 3 of them, we don't know yet how many WCS Points they'll give out and how the regions and qualifications will work. I might look at tweaking the player selection for placeholder tournaments after the GSL finals, I have an idea for it, but I don't want to make it too prohibitive for unexpected players winning. It's not a huge concern though, since it's far from 100%. With all the random player selections this early in the year it kind of makes the extremes compressed, so maybe think of 90% more like 70% and 10% more like 30%.

You can see the extremes being compressed in the point cutoffs, there are large gaps of points with just 10% difference.
0% of the time 1900 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
0.01% of the time 1925 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
10.98% of the time 2525 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon

90.03% of the time 3000 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
99.99% of the time 3825 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
100% of the time 3850 points is enough to qualify for Blizzcon
"Expert" mods4ever.com
Paljas
Profile Joined October 2011
Germany6926 Posts
March 20 2015 22:27 GMT
#158
gogo Maru
TL+ Member
MosART
Profile Joined May 2010
United States1899 Posts
March 20 2015 22:35 GMT
#159
This series probably be shorter than the pre-game show.
SC2Toastie
Profile Blog Joined October 2013
Netherlands5725 Posts
March 20 2015 22:39 GMT
#160
LETS GO MARU LETS GO !CLAPCLAPCLAP!
Mura Ma Man, Dark Da Dude, Super Shot Sos!
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