[NSSL] Grand Finals Season 1 2015 - Page 6

On March 17 2015 22:40 The_Red_Viper wrote:

Haha yeah i thought so.
Not sure if that counts as winning though (maybe?)

On March 17 2015 22:41 Elentos wrote:

Well in terms of Maru vs Dream, Maru being Goku and Dream being Vegeta, I guess this would mean Dream would cheese game 7 and walk away with the trophy, wouldn't it?

On March 17 2015 22:44 SC2Toastie wrote:
People don't take into account this is Dreams first major finals.

Maru has massive advantage in experience.
Maru has a superior record.
Maru has the cuddle-factor.
Maru has the unpredictability of sick series planning.
Dream has Innovation who is probably a slightly better practice partner.
Dream has the advantage of not having travelled to IEM this week.

4-2 maths provesed its.

     (2208) Maru  0-0  Dream (1821)    
---------------------------------------
      19.65% 4-0       0-4   1.25%     
      26.27% 4-1       1-4   3.32%     
      21.95% 4-2       2-4   5.53%     
      14.67% 4-3       3-4   7.37%     
---------------------------------------
          82.53%        17.47%         

Median outcome: Maru 4-2 Dream

On March 17 2015 22:58 Elentos wrote:
Tbh, I think the 82.5% win chance Aligulac gives Maru is way too high <.< I don't really care which of the two wins, they both deserve it, may the better kid win <.<

On March 17 2015 23:00 The_Red_Viper wrote:

Dream has historically a very bad TvT record, that's the whole reason he is rated so low here.
I don't think this is a good indicator to current form at all though, should be pretty 50:50 tbh

On March 17 2015 23:10 Elentos wrote:

Maru is 7-3 in his last 10 TvTs, Dream is 7-5 in his last 12, who knows, Maru might also be 7-5 if he'd played the same number of games. And Dream beat him the last time they played. So IMO 55-45 is the highest reasonable thing in a mirror between the two.

And yeah, Dream's TvT is extremely pathetic historically. However, I had Aligulac do inference for Flash vs Dream, Cure vs Dream and INnoVation vs Dream. Flash got 67% in a bo7 (with the best historical TvT record of the 5), Cure got 68% (despite being in far better TvT shape than any of the others) and INnoVation got 81% (despite it being his worst MU). So really, I'm not sure how that happened.

On March 17 2015 23:19 The_Red_Viper wrote:

I think it just uses the current tvt elo to calculate the chance.