U&D Group C

DongRaeGu
      Expected score: 4.49-0.51 (sets: 4.49-0.51)
      Probability of achieving top 2: 90.92%
      Most likely place: 1st (76.31%)

Symbol
      Expected score: 3.28-1.72 (sets: 3.28-1.72)
      Probability of achieving top 2: 56.77%
      Most likely place: 2nd (52.23%)

First
      Expected score: 2.78-2.22 (sets: 2.78-2.22)
      Probability of achieving top 2: 26.38%
      Most likely place: 3rd (43.08%)

LosirA
      Expected score: 2.65-2.35 (sets: 2.65-2.35)
      Probability of achieving top 2: 25.92%
      Most likely place: 4th (46.42%)

Bbyong
      Expected score: 1.08-3.92 (sets: 1.08-3.92)
      Probability of achieving top 2: 0.00%
      Most likely place: 6th (42.63%)

Grubby
      Expected score: 0.72-4.28 (sets: 0.72-4.28)
      Probability of achieving top 2: 0.00%
      Most likely place: 6th (57.37%)

details, data source, code

+ Show Spoiler [Details] +

Detailed placement probabilities

                     6th      5th      4th      3rd      2nd      1st
        LosirA:             4.23%   46.42%   23.43%   17.83%    8.09%
         First:            14.94%   15.59%   43.08%   15.33%   11.05%
        Bbyong:   42.63%   38.80%   14.48%    4.10%                  
        Symbol:             4.57%   15.45%   23.22%   52.23%    4.54%
        Grubby:   57.37%   37.47%    4.00%    1.16%                  
     DongRaeGu:                      4.07%    5.01%   14.61%   76.31%

Match score

                     0-5      1-4      2-3      3-2      4-1      5-0
        LosirA:                     44.65%   45.92%    9.44%         
         First:                     35.86%   49.92%   14.22%         
        Bbyong:   21.23%   49.97%   28.79%                           
        Symbol:                     12.66%   47.02%   40.32%         
        Grubby:   40.35%   47.00%   12.65%                           
     DongRaeGu:                               6.31%   38.03%   55.66%

Set score

                      -5       -4       -3       -2       -1        0        1        2        3        4        5
        LosirA:                                       44.65%            45.92%             9.44%                  
         First:                                       35.86%            49.92%            14.22%                  
        Bbyong:   21.23%            49.97%            28.79%                                                      
        Symbol:                                       12.66%            47.02%            40.32%                  
        Grubby:   40.35%            47.00%            12.65%                                                      
     DongRaeGu:                                                          6.31%            38.03%            55.66%

LosirA vs. Symbol

LosirA wins (42.68%):
1-0: 42.68%

Symbol wins (57.32%):
1-0: 57.32%

Most likely winner: Symbol (57.32%)
Median outcome: LosirA 0-1 Symbol

details, data source, code

Godwrath

Spain10142 Posts

January 08 2013 12:04 GMT

#705

On January 08 2013 20:58 DarkLordOlli wrote:
Yeah, DRG showing some smack. No surprises here, I predicted all against Bbyong.

Same for me. Now we gotta see if it's First or losira who gets third place, and with today matches i can't really predict. According to theBB statpage First should have an slightly advantage tho.

On January 08 2013 21:03 rblstr wrote:
So can Grubby advance?
If he wins the next 2?
Or can he be wildcard?

No, he is gone.

Thieving Magpie

United States6752 Posts

January 08 2013 12:04 GMT

#706

Anyone else hoping for a 4way tie for the wild card? Grubby! I BELIEVE!

eonDE

Canada371 Posts

January 08 2013 12:05 GMT

#707

lol wolfmath

fishb00n

Germany607 Posts

January 08 2013 12:06 GMT

#708

thank you for posting these stats before every game. very interesting

sparklyresidue

United States5524 Posts

January 08 2013 12:06 GMT

#709

Placement for this group is going to be interesting, especially the 3rd place (wild card).

DisaFear

Australia4074 Posts

January 08 2013 12:06 GMT

#710

On January 08 2013 21:05 eonDE wrote:
lol wolfmath

Reminds me so much of Wolfram Alpha :3

Laryleprakon

New Zealand9496 Posts

January 08 2013 12:07 GMT

#711

Lets go Losira!

Shellshock

United States97276 Posts

January 08 2013 12:08 GMT

#712

GSL S1 2013 Up & Down Matches Group C

LosirA (2-1) vs

Symbol (2-1)
Map: Bel'shir Vestige

0:00

Losira spawns in the top left

Symbol spawns in the bottom right

DJHelium

Sweden13480 Posts

January 08 2013 12:09 GMT

#713

On January 08 2013 21:06 DisaFear wrote:

Show nested quote +

Reminds me so much of Wolfram Alpha :3

Tweeted that to Wolf yesterday after the math fail, got this response:

DJHelium ‏@DJHelium
@ProxyWolf http://www.wolframalpha.com

Wolf Schröder ‏@ProxyWolf
@DJHelium I made that website.

mongmong

Korea (South)1389 Posts

January 08 2013 12:09 GMT

#714

On January 08 2013 21:03 mordk wrote:
Aaaaand no elephants cross directly into Code S

Keep it up ESF only 2 groups remain

And the fanboys pull out the "they've just switched" card.

FrostedMiniWheats

United States30730 Posts

January 08 2013 12:10 GMT

#715

alright losira it's all on the ZvZ

Laurens

Belgium4557 Posts

January 08 2013 12:12 GMT

#716

grubby

Shellshock

United States97276 Posts

January 08 2013 12:12 GMT

#717

On January 08 2013 21:08 Shellshock1122 wrote:

GSL S1 2013 Up & Down Matches Group C

LosirA (2-1) vs

Symbol (2-1)
Map: Bel'shir Vestige

0:00

Losira spawns in the top left

Symbol spawns in the bottom right

2:00
hatch first for Losira
hatch first for Symbol
gas for Losira
gas for Symbol
pool for Symbol
pool for Losira

3:00
drones and queens

4:00
ling speed for Symbol
ling speed for Losira
baneling nest for Symbol
baneling nest for Losira

5:00
spinecrawler for Losira in his natural
10 lings started for Symbol
4 lings started for Losira
2nd gas for Losira
2nd gas for Symbol
Lair for Symbol
2 banes morphing for Symbol near Losira's base
4 defensive banes for Losira

isaachukfan

Canada785 Posts

January 08 2013 12:14 GMT

#718

On January 08 2013 21:09 mongmong wrote:

Show nested quote +

And the fanboys pull out the "they've just switched" card.

Let's not turn this into a Kespa v.s. Esf flame war

Also, in general I don't watch ZvZ, but after hearing/watching the legends/vods of the GSTL match between these two, I've changed my mind for this match...