I would prefer to lynch BH though. Still nothing said that is worth anything apart from this big flashy post. That don't conclude in anything:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote:
living players:
Palmar
Rels
Disfo
VA
BTDT
Rayn
Blaze
FF
Skynx
RuXxar
ES
Living claimers (do not lynch):
VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3
ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4
Likely town:
Disfo
RuXXar
Fecal
... much lower, Skynx
Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them):
Palmar
BTDT
Rels
Rayn
--
So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat:
Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.
Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.
The people who were on the Annul wagon:
annul (7): sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince
Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote):
Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez
So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.
I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.
So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.
I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.
With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.
2-mafia situation:
Today, 9-2.
If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2
If we ML again, next day is 5-2
If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO
3-mafia situation:
today, 8-3
If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3
If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO
The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.
Conclusion: 2 of these people are scum, and here is one reason for each they could be:
this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.
I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.
Then some more rambling about the state of the game. No risk at all taken.
|
Let's not forget the numerous days of no-content posts since the beginning of the game. Never taking risk, but always there. Talking about irrelevant stuff and having almost no reads. Take a look at his filter and try to find a post that push the game forward. They are almost non existent.
In fact here are some posts that look involved 'cause they're big, but don't push the game:
+ Show Spoiler +On June 21 2017 19:38 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On June 21 2017 19:31 disformation wrote:On June 21 2017 18:52 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 21 2017 18:34 disformation wrote:looking back at fefe: last post: On June 21 2017 08:47 Fecalfeast wrote:
So I went into VA's filter almost looking for reasons to scumread him and now that I made half a case about his read progression on grack and skynx...
I kinda think he's just low effort town.. The way he comes across seems so casual and while like 80% of his posts are setup talk or useless he seems to be looking at the game from a low information point of view and hasn't pushed any sort of agenda (scum or town) that I can see. town. fairly sure. Why is that townish? "I made a half-assed attempt to do something and my result is a not-really-committed townread" How is that townish? *sigh* why would scum do that? scum would just finish up the half finished case to look like having scumreads and done stuff. realizing half way through a case that you think the guy might actually be town is far more likely to come from town. aaaand the read isnt even as shitty as you make it out to be. "i cant see any agenda in va's filter" is a pretty strong statement. Yeah I actually think this is a valid point. Like, here's how you should look at it. On the really basic level, the first level, Scum aren't coming from the same mindset of hunting scum that Town come from. Which means it's hard for Scum to have good reads and feel confident pushing them. This means that Town might formulate a read and make a case, but Scum would worry about appearing scummy or something, and therefore try to leave open a line of retreat. See, if you're town, and you think someone is scum, even if it's unpopular to think that, you won't give it up. You have a belief; you have evidence; you're gonna go for it. Scum, though, they're not trying to lynch this guy they think is scum. Instead, theyr'e trying to not get lynched. so maybe theyw ant to build their cases and reads with a line of retreat so they can change their minds if it's unpopular. So on a naive level you would expect Town to be decisive and Scum to be waffly. But if you go down into the second level, it turns out taht sometimes as Town you're confused. And to a certain extent, town doesn't actually CARE about looking town. I mean, obvs you don't wanna get lynched but you're also highly concerned with finding scum. Whereas scum, their ONLY concern is about looking town. And if "looking town" means decisively posting aggressive cases, Scum will try to ape this as best they can. Town will only do this when it makes sense for them. So, we might see someone posting waffle-like uncertain reads. This could mean "ah hah, this is scum planning to pull out of these reads if they aren't popular" and that's possible. But because this really stands out, and is obviously scummy, it's like... the kind of thing that scum tries (but not always succeeds) to avoid doing. And town to a certain extent doesn't actually give a shit. Town wants to lynch properly. so "I did half-assed work and got a half-assed townread" is, you know, it's not something i'm gonna go giving people tons of townreads on that, but there's not a HUGE motivation for scum to do that because 1) a half-assed townread won't get anyone lynched and 2) it kinda stands out as "bad" in a sense. And I'm not saying "too bad to be scum" but you can see how a town has in some ways more chances of saying this than a scum, capisce nonsense wiseness. On June 22 2017 09:11 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On June 22 2017 09:07 Rels wrote:
lol. Yes it's simple. You're scumreading me because you don't believe I couldn't know that info as town. Which is what I find really dumb. Cause dumbtells happen literally all the time.
Discussion closed. Ok, so you DO understand me, you're just disagreeing loudly cause you know I caught you Look at it this way Rels There's like, one setup post, with like 7 lines in it. It's right there. Now what do you think is more likely here, from an outside view? 1. A townie somehow doesn't know what's going on in the OP, and is actively planning around this lack of knowledge (hoping to have a way to stop 2 kp). Despite planning around this lack of knowledge he never looks at the OP, not when he signed up, not when the game started, not when 2 deaths came through N1, and so on. And so, somehow he goes through this existence of hoping/planning around this "knowledge" that he never even spent a second to check on. 2. A Mafia, is keenly aware of how Mafia KP works, but thinks, "ah hah, I could FAKE not knowing how mafia works, thereby PROVING that I am town" Which is more likely? It's obviously #2. Mafia are willing to lie about everything: emotions, real life issues, being busy, being sick, reading the OP, etc. Townies, will always be curious and want to know how to play the game. And some may be oblivious, but most will not. Most of the time you see something of this caliber executed by someone at this time in the game, it is a mafia move to generate towniness that read on me that makes no sense. On June 23 2017 08:20 Blazinghand wrote:OK SO THEORY. AS we know, SickLucker crumbed his N1 and N2 checks here, which was SAME on FEFE and Chezitwo. However, pay attention to how he wrote it: Show nested quote +On June 22 2017 19:19 sicklucker wrote:On June 22 2017 18:05 disformation wrote:
so lets start again:
town:
fefe
chezitwo
if ppl scumread any of those two i would like to see reasons/cases I have a red check on both of them I don't know about you folks but I pretty much immediately ignored this. I assumed it was a troll or a joke, not a serious claim in any way. In fact, he doesn't claim they're both the same alignment, he claims they're both Red checks. Now imagine FeFe and Chez are townies. If FeFe and Chez are both Green, and Mafia sees SL, who to them is just some townie, claim he has redchecks on them, why would they shoot him? Who cares, he's some weirdo doing weird things. BUT THATS NOT WHAT HAPPENEd MAFIA SHOT HIM. Which means, when they saw SL say "i have redchecks on FeFe and Chez" they probably started freaking out because fefe and chez are actually mafia. Their Rb, Xat, is dead; so they can't just wait one more day for town to maybe lynch SL, cause then SL will die and leave us THREE checks (remember, they think he's a cop at this point). So they HAVE to shoot him right away even though he's like the top lynch target. Mafia has no reason to rolecheck SL, he was considered suspicious and likely to get lynched. But, if FeFe and Chez ARE IN FACT MAFIA, then Mafia had a REALLY good reason to pay attention to this off-handed statement and freak out and shoot SL! I think that SL crumbed so we'd know he got "same" on FeFe and Chez. But I ALSO think that the way he was shot could only really happen if FeFe and Chez are Mafia and Mafia freaked the fuck out this makes as much or more sense than the rolecop theory now one of FeFe or Chez could still be town here, as an un-self-aware miller; and mafia think "ok, chez/fefe is one of us, but fefe/chez is a miller" and this still confirms, in their minds, that SL is a REGULAR COP with two red checks they couldn't afford to let him live. NK analysis. On June 23 2017 08:31 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On June 23 2017 08:30 ruXxar wrote:On June 23 2017 08:26 Blazinghand wrote:On June 23 2017 08:23 Chezitwo wrote:On June 23 2017 08:20 Blazinghand wrote:OK SO THEORY. AS we know, SickLucker crumbed his N1 and N2 checks here, which was SAME on FEFE and Chezitwo. However, pay attention to how he wrote it: On June 22 2017 19:19 sicklucker wrote:On June 22 2017 18:05 disformation wrote:
so lets start again:
town:
fefe
chezitwo
if ppl scumread any of those two i would like to see reasons/cases I have a red check on both of them I don't know about you folks but I pretty much immediately ignored this. I assumed it was a troll or a joke, not a serious claim in any way. In fact, he doesn't claim they're both the same alignment, he claims they're both Red checks. Now imagine FeFe and Chez are townies. If FeFe and Chez are both Green, and Mafia sees SL, who to them is just some townie, claim he has redchecks on them, why would they shoot him? Who cares, he's some weirdo doing weird things. BUT THATS NOT WHAT HAPPENEd MAFIA SHOT HIM. Which means, when they saw SL say "i have redchecks on FeFe and Chez" they probably started freaking out because fefe and chez are actually mafia. Their Rb, Xat, is dead; so they can't just wait one more day for town to maybe lynch SL, cause then SL will die and leave us THREE checks (remember, they think he's a cop at this point). So they HAVE to shoot him right away even though he's like the top lynch target. Mafia has no reason to rolecheck SL, he was considered suspicious and likely to get lynched. But, if FeFe and Chez ARE IN FACT MAFIA, then Mafia had a REALLY good reason to pay attention to this off-handed statement and freak out and shoot SL! I think that SL crumbed so we'd know he got "same" on FeFe and Chez. But I ALSO think that the way he was shot could only really happen if FeFe and Chez are Mafia and Mafia freaked the fuck out this makes as much or more sense than the rolecop theory now one of FeFe or Chez could still be town here, as an un-self-aware miller; and mafia think "ok, chez/fefe is one of us, but fefe/chez is a miller" and this still confirms, in their minds, that SL is a REGULAR COP with two red checks they couldn't afford to let him live. Not only is this just factually wrong and mafia probably wouldn't be stupid enough to think that SL wouldn't claim with 2 redckecks it is also definitely NOT more likely than the rolecop theory. hmm, do you really think so though, like remembe,r this means MAfia rolecopped SL during N1 or N2. And then, during Day 3, when it was a faceoff between SL, the guy they "know" is Parity cop, and Grack, the guy they think is just some guy, why does the Grack wagon get so much more support than the SL wagon? there were like TWO dudes on SL at the end, but at some point it was very close. I feel mafia would have pushed to get SL lynched right away. on top of that, this innocuous "I have two redchecks" troll remark seems normal to town but to mafia has to be a HUGE red flag when those two redchecks are on two mafia right (remember, mafia didn't know he was parity cop, thought he was regular cop, in this hypothetical) Doesn't this counter the point you're trying to make? If they knew he was parity cop, wouldn't they try to vote him out? OMG READING COMPREHENSION I AM POINTING OUT THAT IN A WORLD IN WHICH MAFIA HAD A ROLE CHECK THEY WOULD PUSH SICKLUCKER SINCE THEY DIDN'T THEY DIDN'T HAVE A ROLE CHECK SO WHY DID THEY SHOOT HIM ITS NOT CAUSE HE WAS TOWN LEADER ITS CAUSE THEY GOT HIS ROLE SOME OTHER WAY LIKE HIS OVERNIGHT CLAIM THAT ONLY STUCK OUT IF YOU ARE MAFIA I AM POINTING OUT THAT THE COUNTERFACTUAL OF ROLE CHECK DOESN'T MAKE SENSE Same. On June 23 2017 09:00 Blazinghand wrote:Here's like all of Palmar's post in the last week: Show nested quote +On June 16 2017 16:39 Palmar wrote:
I clicked darthfoley's filter. I don't like it much, and I would expect him to be a relatively easy townread if he was town. I think he is a good candidate for being mafia. Show nested quote +On June 16 2017 20:25 Palmar wrote:On June 16 2017 17:52 Holyflare wrote:
3P: koshi/palmar
How many 3Ps are there? I have way more flair when I'm 3p Show nested quote +On June 16 2017 20:26 Palmar wrote:
I'm just playing single player mafia mostly. Occasionally clicking filters, ignoring the thread, throwing out some opinions.
Life is good.
I'll try to maybe make my statement posts a bit more detailed when I cba. Show nested quote +On June 19 2017 03:36 Palmar wrote:
Ill figure out why we're all so happy together tomorrow Show nested quote +On June 20 2017 06:43 Palmar wrote:
Rels is evil!
I have no idea, I haven't read much lately.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent. Show nested quote +On June 20 2017 22:44 Palmar wrote:On June 20 2017 22:41 Chezitwo wrote:On June 20 2017 22:40 Rels wrote:
@BTDT we're not lynching Palmar 'cause he did nothing scummy and some other people did.
Filter length is something to consider but is not an absolute measure. Yeah, basically this. But we should not allow Palmar to keep this up either regardless of his alignment. Surely the stern facial expression will make me snap out of it. Show nested quote +On June 20 2017 22:46 Palmar wrote:On June 20 2017 07:40 Chezitwo wrote:On June 20 2017 06:43 Palmar wrote:
Rels is evil!
I have no idea, I haven't read much lately.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent. So, are you claiming it is normal for marv to completely vanish from TL due to rolling mafia? Because if you are not you don't have a leg to stand on. Yes, that is exactly what I am claiming. Show nested quote +On June 20 2017 22:50 Palmar wrote:
my top lyncherios atm:
skynx, btdt and sicklucker. Show nested quote +On June 20 2017 22:57 Palmar wrote:
I voted for skynx. He sounds distinctly less towny than he did the last game i played with him. I'm not complaining that the content is different, he just sounds less sassy.
It's a weak vote atm, I'll probably read some more later. Show nested quote +On June 20 2017 22:58 Palmar wrote:On June 20 2017 22:51 beentheredonethat wrote:
the "marv disappears when he's scum" shit is actually valid, I can confirm that from Generic I (I think. Might've been one of the other games I hosted). The scum qt in this game is full of "omg I rolled scum" shit.
Then again, I haven't seen him post here around tl so I don't know how valid it is
also this is one of the few points Palmar can make because he's been absent basically. So I'd treat this with care. chezitwo appeared townie to me I have not read anything of Chezitwo's posts, it's very much just based on that. Which is why I don't particularly want to lynch him, it basically wouldn't be fair to the guy. I'm kinda hoping the situation resolves itself through a vigi shot or something. Show nested quote +On June 20 2017 22:59 Palmar wrote:On June 20 2017 22:58 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 20 2017 22:40 Rels wrote:
@BTDT we're not lynching Palmar 'cause he did nothing scummy and some other people did.
Filter length is something to consider but is not an absolute measure. He did nothing townie, either. And a super bad reason to not lynch an obvious lurker. He managed to vote each cycle. He even comes in every now and then, throw accusations at people, doesn't follow up AND he freely admits to neither read nor care about this game. I don't know why we don't lynch (or shoot) such a player. To be fair, I freely admit to never reading any game I play. But yes, been extra lazy this game. Just had stuff to do. Show nested quote +On June 20 2017 23:00 Palmar wrote:
btdt actually upgraded based on really wanting me dead, I'm a sucker for people hating me. Show nested quote +On June 20 2017 23:10 Palmar wrote:On June 20 2017 23:01 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 20 2017 23:00 beentheredonethat wrote:On June 16 2017 00:40 Palmar wrote:
So I clicked two more filters.
beentheredonethat is strange. There's some weird stuff in his filter like gettin into an argument if he's carefree. But there's also some townie sounding, albeit not very useful stuff. He goes in the "could be either category"
AMG hasn't posted at all, lucky me that was an easy filter to read.
I still think voting sicklucker is a good idea and I'm gonna park my vote there. Btdt should probably sheep me as he thinks sicklucker's contributions are atrocious. Hey, Palmar, we have a sicklucker train going. You care? On June 16 2017 16:39 Palmar wrote:
I clicked darthfoley's filter. I don't like it much, and I would expect him to be a relatively easy townread if he was town. I think he is a good candidate for being mafia. Hey, Palmar, this guy flipped town. On June 20 2017 06:43 Palmar wrote:
Rels is evil!
I have no idea, I haven't read much lately.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent. On June 16 2017 00:41 Palmar wrote:
Btw, if we're killing inactive/modkill-territory people, we kill AMG, not marv. Hey, Palmar, lynch into the AMG slot instead of the slot where you're suspecting scum!marv? Ok the first two things are basically me bitching but the last one is valid and scummy I actually think the first things are better, especially being wrong (mildly... I never voted him) on darthfoley. The last part is completely irrelevant. I posted the first post on day 1 for very good reasons (marv is both a great player and a good friend of mine, so keeping him alive would always be optimal). However when it's clear marv isn't playing and is replaced by a smurf, I no longer have any personal attachments to the slot (ie, I really want to play with marv). So cold calculation leads me to believe it is not unlikely, based on something completely out of his control, that Chezitwo is mafia. However, as I already said, I do not really want to lynch him for that without suspecting him specifically (and not the slot), because it's an asshole thing to do. I didn't even know we had a train on sicklucker. Is there an actual case I can read somewhere? I read a few more posts of skynx, I think I'll be unvoting him, he has a few decent posts. Show nested quote +On June 20 2017 23:11 Palmar wrote:
Can someone also link to a case on Grack? Show nested quote +On June 21 2017 03:30 Palmar wrote:On June 20 2017 23:27 Chezitwo wrote:On June 20 2017 22:44 Palmar wrote:On June 20 2017 22:41 Chezitwo wrote:On June 20 2017 22:40 Rels wrote:
@BTDT we're not lynching Palmar 'cause he did nothing scummy and some other people did.
Filter length is something to consider but is not an absolute measure. Yeah, basically this. But we should not allow Palmar to keep this up either regardless of his alignment. Surely the stern facial expression will make me snap out of it. Apparently it did :D On June 20 2017 22:46 Palmar wrote:On June 20 2017 07:40 Chezitwo wrote:On June 20 2017 06:43 Palmar wrote:
Rels is evil!
I have no idea, I haven't read much lately.
I saw darthfoley thinks btdt is mafia, that is an interesting development as I've previously mentioned suspecting both of them. I also should catch up on what sicklucker is doing.
Chezitwo is probably mafia because marv not playing is like 99% because he rolled mafia. Sucks, but replacements are always more likely to be mafia, and in this case it's especially prevalent. So, are you claiming it is normal for marv to completely vanish from TL due to rolling mafia? Because if you are not you don't have a leg to stand on. Yes, that is exactly what I am claiming. How am I supposed to believe that a guy like this: On June 16 2017 07:40 Palmar wrote:On June 16 2017 07:37 Koshi wrote:On June 16 2017 07:36 Fecalfeast wrote:
Shenannie onto marv?
😇I'm only half joking nha. 0 posts is not his mafia style. He has some dignity and respect for the game. He had, tbh. He's the guy who just quit a game because he rolled mafia, as much as I like him (I love the guy, he's by far guy I've interacted most with outside of mafia that I've met here) he has been rather sketchy in his appearances lately. If anything his silence does point to him being mafia (or simply having forgotten about the game). does not realize that marvs universal TL absence is obviously not connected to a mafia game he signed up for ages ago? Walk me through this. Do you actually believe marv would stop himself from posting on this forum because of this game? Not to mention that he stopped posting way before it started and he could know his alignment. marv barely posts outside tl mafia at all, like his entire tl existence is basically tl mafia. Show nested quote +On June 21 2017 03:31 Palmar wrote:On June 20 2017 23:45 disformation wrote:yeah i think i'll make a decent case on sl later. basically: creates the annul wagon via "read his filter didnt like it" pushes really hard (uncharacteristic for sl) has a false/bad xata town lean/read says xata might be town after all after flip aaaand: On June 16 2017 07:54 Holyflare wrote:On June 16 2017 07:51 Holyflare wrote:On June 16 2017 07:49 sicklucker wrote:On June 16 2017 07:47 Holyflare wrote:On June 16 2017 07:45 Eversince wrote:
This is going to make me look like garbage.
I haven't read anything since pg 35ish. Give me the the rough of what's happen between now and then for Xata, Annul, and SL.
I don't have time to fact check so my vote is entirely blind at this point. sl came to the thread and town read xatalos because xatalos has different reads to most of the game (when in fact xatalos' reads are blending with the rest of the game sl says i'm mafia for calling all the town leaders mafia and it's my mafia meta when 100% of other games he states my mafia meta is to push lurkers sl is trying to force the wagon onto someone who is blatantly self-preserving and revealing his plan for all to see, who stubbornly refuses to change his reads despite everyone yelling at him mafia sl is mafia I said that because xata had a mafia read on ryan and everyone else town read him. get over it you lost save your buddy xata doesn't have a mafia read on rayn, he said he can still be scum but doesn't actually say he scum reads him at all just remember this later ^ sicklucker being wrong is not really a scumtell. Show nested quote +On June 21 2017 04:05 Palmar wrote:On June 21 2017 03:42 Skynx wrote:
Palmar are you here? Wtf are you doing this game? enjoying life! Things are going fine, there's plenty of people stepping up and taking charge. I'm loving not having to whip people into shape for once. Show nested quote +On June 21 2017 04:13 Palmar wrote:
looks like Vivax wanted to kill Grack, he's the best player that's flipped so maybe I should trust him.
But then again, I like killing sl. Show nested quote +On June 21 2017 18:22 Palmar wrote:On June 21 2017 16:51 beentheredonethat wrote:
current main wagon:
Grackaroni (5): ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Chezitwo, beentheredonethat, VayneAuthority
D1 main wagon:
annul (7): sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince
Ruxxar and Fecalfeast are voting together once more. Both rather townread people. Why was everyone so super sure on Fecalfeast again? I think there were valid points but don't remember.
VayneAuthority ended up on Skynx D1 and is now up on the Grack wagon after popping in for a while. So D1 a non-committal vote and D3 joining the wagon in a strong fashion (I think joining a wagon as #5/#6 has more weight than #1/#2) which gives me worries. What are VA's reasons?
Like, people from the annul wagon aren't exactly cleared. We're focusing on Rels, Grack, ES, but left out Ruxxar for a lot of time (for which exact reasons?)
Hmm Ruxxar, from what little I've read of him, kinda sounds like town, but it's not a strong read. Listing all Palmar's posts. On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote:
living players:
Palmar
Rels
Disfo
VA
BTDT
Rayn
Blaze
FF
Skynx
RuXxar
ES
Living claimers (do not lynch):
VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3
ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4
Likely town:
Disfo
RuXXar
Fecal
... much lower, Skynx
Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them):
Palmar
BTDT
Rels
Rayn
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So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat:
Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.
Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.
The people who were on the Annul wagon:
annul (7): sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince
Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote):
Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez
So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.
I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.
So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.
I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.
With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.
2-mafia situation:
Today, 9-2.
If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2
If we ML again, next day is 5-2
If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO
3-mafia situation:
today, 8-3
If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3
If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO
The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.
Setup analysis to get a POE list. Also see my post just above.
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EPT
