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On February 18 2016 16:14 Tictock wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2016 02:49 Trfel wrote:Shapelog is mafia  He scumread me, then when I said I was suspicious of him for not doing anything, that it's purely his fault of he gets lynched. And then all of the other reasons. ##vote ShapelogI mean, this is like a swiss cheese vote, but whatever I think I pointed this post out earlier when I was skimming, but this is really wierd. Trfel can you explain to me what you were thinking behind this vote on Shape? The reasons for voting Shapelog are in my filter both before and after the vote. I believe that a few posts later, I gave a (rather poor) summary. Here you go, but I discussed Shapelog a fairly large amount in other places as well.
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Nooniansoong, why were you so insistent on voting for GlowingBear over scott31337?
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On February 19 2016 00:40 Trfel wrote:
Nooniansoong, why were you so insistent on voting for GlowingBear over scott31337? Wait, I misread.
Change question to, why were you townreading scott31337? I don't see this, given that he was in your list of "most suspicious people".
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I really wish I hadn't brought up the nooniansoong brag lists as a reason for a townread last game. I don't feel like I can use it this game 
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On February 19 2016 01:05 Trfel wrote:I really wish I hadn't brought up the nooniansoong brag lists as a reason for a townread last game. I don't feel like I can use it this game Meh, I need to pay more attention.
Translation of the above post is:
I'm having trouble reading nooniansoong, please help me.
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Nooniansoong, you're really making me wish you were scum.
But the more you post the more you make me think you aren't.
Just don't talk about blues for another 15 minutes, cool?
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I really don't know why people are scumreading Tumblewood so much. Is it for not doing anything? Or for voting Palmar?
Aside from the vote on Palmar, Tumblewood play is a textbook case of new town imo. Very genuine and ot seems like he is really thinking about the game, plus a large amount of effort. The icing on the cake is that his play is so different from last game. What am I missing?
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Not wo4ied about death because of mafia koll Mr I happy
Shape shut up
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Don't say who it was, makes it a wasted day
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Sorry, I was on my phone as I was walking out of class. I'm back now.
First, Shapelog, congratulations on the successful track, but if this happens again, it's generally best to wait to reveal blue actions. Saying "I have awesome information to be shared later in this day that will determine the lynch" is sufficient.
Nooniansoong, I would have been happy to die because there are/were better players than me who are town, because I don't know who mafia is, and for mafia to kill me, it reveals a lot of information. Notably, that would make players like Eden and rsoultin far more suspect.
Anyway, I don't have any great reads, but they were clearly laid out over the course of the night phase. I stand by my Tumblewood read, and for those who still scumread him, I'd like them to (once again) explain why he is mafia (just one person doing this is fine).
I should probably take a look at The Shining again, even though I do think he is town, the fact that Eden died makes him worth a second look.
And please, let the vigilante decide for themselves whether or not they should claim. I like to think that people have enough competence to determine this for themselves.
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On February 19 2016 06:28 Breshke wrote:
Trefel did you see my post on tumble/what do you think? I think that the point about claiming, while it is a contradiction, is secondary to the overall picture of Tumblewood's play.
I do find the read switch on Palmar quite suspicious, but here's the thing. If you look at most people's play as mafia, Tumblewood's included (at least, those people who actually try), their filter is largely consistent. They'll scumread someone and keep scumreading that person, and if they start pushing someone else, they'll say why. The way that Tumblewood goes about that read switch in such a careless manner makes me hesitate to scumread him for it, give how deliberate he was with his votes last game. This makes the Palmar switch feel less relevant given Tumblewood's play as a whole.
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I mean, I've played in a lot of newbie games. I'm really good at townreading newbies (sometimes incorrrectly, to be fair). It's just trends that I've seen. I might very well be wrong, but this is just what I think.
It's not just that Tumblewood switched to Palmar, it's the way that he did it that makes it feel more like a throw-away. He also could have probably just sat on Shapelog and pretended to AFK or something.
Like, if I'm mafia and I'm going to vote on a town vs town lynch that I don't care about, I'll be like "Palmar is mafia because he hasn't been doing things or given any explanations for his reads". Which is a lot better than "I can't stand not lynching Palmar". Which one did Tumblewood go with?
If you don't get the newbie trends, and you don't get the meta, then whatever. Tell me when the last time was that you saw mafia, especially newbie mafia, try something as original and time-consuming as written read lists like that? It doesn't happen. Mafia, especially newbie mafia, almost always go their own way.
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On February 19 2016 07:05 Shapelog wrote:
DO not underestimate Tumble, as either alignment. Guy is pretty good Tbh as scum and prob. great as town. It's not a matter of estimation. It's a matter of him seeming to be extremely obvious town...
I don't have any great lynch targets Nooniansoong seems much more involved now, I need to look through later to see if his play has direction or if it's just commenting, but for now I'm not feeling as comfortable scumreading him I guess. I wish I knew what his play would look like as mafia given his new playstyle.
I need to look more at Tictock and The Shining, I feel that both are town, but they could use a second look. And I should probably read rsoultin's filter at some point, bleh. Rsoultin is probably mafia because I don't think that she is, which tends to only happen when she is mafia and never when she is town, which is pretty dumb, but whatever.
I still can really see scott31337 being mafia here, as well as maybe GlowingBear. They've both felt very uninvolved and distant lately. I would think that the images would make GlowingBear town, but he actually hasn't been pushing anything or making any reads. Since he (presumably) hasn't dove filters yet, this is quite suspicious to me. I had some reasons to be suspicious of scott31337 before, perhaps the biggest reasons I am not sure that he is mafia is because I remember accusing him of having no direction before when I was mafia to mislynch him (which is something I find suspicious about his play now) and that the votes don't really feel like a town vs scum wagon....
Anyway, I have an exam in a bit less than two hours, and then lots of homework due Friday, so I doubt I can do much serious analysis until after that.
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Shapelog is probably just town.
If he's not town, it will be clear soon enough. There is next to zero chance that he survives this game if he is mafia, there are way too many things that would need to go perfectly for him, as well as a ton of tremendous mistakes from town. I highly suggest not worrying too much about him at this time.
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I....... don't understand what is happening at all.
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Simplified Vote Count Analysis
Assumptions:
GlowingBear and Shapelog are both town (claimed blues)
scott31337 is mafia
The purpose of this simplified vote count analysis is to see how much sense scott31337 makes as mafia, judging by the events including and after the start of the wagon on him.
30 Minutes to EoD
Palmar (3): sicklucker, Shapelog, rsoultin
sicklucker (2): Tictock, GlowingBear
GlowingBear (2): scott31337, nooniansoong
scott31337 (1): Trfel
Breshke (1): Palmar
Shapelog (1): Tumblewood
The Shining (1): Eden1892
Not Voting (2): The Shining, Breshke
I have an exam soon, so I'm not going to color in all of the names, but the point is that the three leading wagons are all town. So, mafia probably hasn't had to do much at this point.
15 Minutes to EoD
Palmar (3): sicklucker, Shapelog, rsoultin
sicklucker (2): Tictock, GlowingBear
GlowingBear (2): scott31337, nooniansoong
scott31337 (2): Trfel, Breshke
Breshke (1): Palmar
Shapelog (1): Tumblewood
The Shining (1): Eden1892
Not Voting (1): The Shining
Immediately after this, The Shining votes for Tumblewood, and sicklucker switches to Tumblewood as well, but then switches back to Palmar. Tictock switches his vote to Palmar, which seems suspect. Then GlowingBear votes for nooniansoong.
This suggests that if scott31337 is mafia (going to stop stating this assumption from here on out), The Shining is town, and Tictock is likely mafia.
Rsoultin's vote switch changes the vote count from 4 to 2 to 3 each, with five minutes left to go to the deadline. I don't think that this vote makes rsoultin town, even if scott31337 is scum. After rsoultin switches votes, she doesn't seem so confident in Palmar being town, but then criticizes GlowingBear and The Shining for what they ought to be doing with their votes, despite seemingly not having her own opinion? Note, regardless of scott31337's alignment, rsoultin's posts in the last five minutes seem strange.
Then Eden and Tumblewood and scott31337 come in and vote. And I'm going to be late for my exam so I'll finish this analysis later T.T Sorry about that.
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Well, hm, forget about GlowingBear being green, but the rest stands.
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I read the last few pages.
I have actually no idea what is going on at all. If someone has something important, please yell at me to make sure I see it.
Anyway, we're saying that mafia decided to roleblock Shapelog and then kill sicklucker? Presumably because they thought sicklucker was blue? And The Shining is the vigilante and shot Eden?
Going with that for now, I guess, even if it makes no sense and I don't like it.
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On February 19 2016 12:37 rsoultin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2016 12:35 Trfel wrote:
I read the last few pages.
I have actually no idea what is going on at all. If someone has something important, please yell at me to make sure I see it.
Anyway, we're saying that mafia decided to roleblock Shapelog and then kill sicklucker? Presumably because they thought sicklucker was blue? And The Shining is the vigilante and shot Eden?
Going with that for now, I guess, even if it makes no sense and I don't like it. it sounds retarded \o/ therefore we're looking for retarded scum! more seriously, though, shape's behavior around day start makes me want to call him town and dig my heels in, so the only other explanation is shining is scum ccing gb's fake claim thinking it's true, and that the real vig for some reason doesn't feel the need to cc himself... I guess you're right, if Shapelog is mafia, that was one really darn quick plan. So he's town. No scum vig, either. Meh, whatever.
Town
Shapelog
Breshke
The Shining
Town Lean
Tictock
Tumblewood
rsoultin
Mafia Lean
nooniansoong?
scott31337?
GlowingBear?
Does anyone have any criticisms or doubts about Breshke being town? I'd like to say he's town and never look back, is anyone concerned that this is premature? Also, it's pretty incredible that the POE list is so small already.... I guess that's what blue claims do for you.
Anyway, I believe Tictock had some questions for me regarding my Tumblewood read? I've said all that I have to say about it, I really do think that he is town because that is by far the simplest explanation, and anything else is pure paranoia. Oh, and Tictock, I feel that your vote is suspicious because "I wanted to lynch Palmar because if he is scum, Trfel is scum too" feels like a really horrible reason to me. I guess I can see it coming from town, but it feels so fabricated, and a bit unrefined. I guess I thought it was widely acknowledged that lynching for information is not good, which is largely what this reason came down to, and I struggle a bit to see this come from experienced town.
Back to my voting analysis, yay.
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EPT
