EPTTJ's play this game past D1 as either alignment is pure shit.
Newbie Student Mafia XII - Page 5
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
TJ's play this game past D1 as either alignment is pure shit. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
Alright, it's super unclear who your are referring to in that post but I see what you mean. Besides with that vote from TJ I don't think we have any choice BUT to lynch him now. After him it's Scott. Yes that's pretty much regardless on how TJ flips at this point. ##Unvote ##Vote: TJHuggins | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
Will share if TJ flips red. I expect town will pick up on it anyways, we seem to be on the same Tin Foil hat frequency this game. I've raised enough hubub today. I'm gunna bugger off now unless something interesting happens. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On July 18 2015 10:23 TJHuggins wrote: You guys are all terrible. I am the cop. I have a town check on MoosyDoosy and a mafia check on silentwarrior. it should have been obvious to everyone from the night that i am cop. anyone im off to sleep. posting on twitter #lynchsilentwarrior Honestly screw you for holding off this long to say jack all. In my mind you waited far too long to make this claim, and voting with me silently without actually saying this before had is even worse. I honestly just want to lynch you still for being terrible. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
This oddly makes me want to lynch TJ even more. It all just feels too convenient... like I even suggested MD as a check N1. Town is at an advantage, and if TJ is actually our Cop he's gone or at least RB'd from now on regardless. We still have our medic... Lets look at a few possible situations for tomorrow. We have a 8/2 game atm. Lynching TJ Worst Case: We lynch TJ today, he flips Cop. Mafia gets NK. 6/2 but we have a confirmed Scum... puts as at 5/1 next phase. We get MD confirmed here as well Best Case: We lynch TJ, flips red. Mafia gets Nk. Start off 7/1 tomorrow. No real new information, too much WIFOM. Lynching SW Worst Case: We lynch SW, he flips Green. Mafia gets NK. 6/2 again with confirmed Scum. Best Case: Lynch SW, flips red. Mafia get NK. Again 7/1, however we have more info as town, MD confirmed and TJ confirmed if he survives the night. Bleh, idk that is full of weird things that can happen with medic saves and I'm probably missing some stuff too. Honestly though we get more or less the same deal regardless of who we lynch today, though obviously it is preferable if we do in fact catch scum. Honestly the only difference I see is in the potential saves by Medic but that comes down to so much WIFOM. There seems to be more potential information provided to town via lynching SW if he is in fact mafia. So I guess that is what we go with. My gut is telling me TJ is playing us though... Anyone please feel free to comment on this. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On July 18 2015 12:13 Half the Sky wrote: If any scummer is fake claiming the real DT claims. Straightforward. Yea yea... I can way overcomplicate things. The important thing here is that I might be getting a lot better drawing good conclusions from it  | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
*Swaps vote back to TJ On July 18 2015 13:49 Grokken wrote: If he is the roleblocker, I check either scott or WP. If the check returns green we lynch the one I didn't check. I had totally forgotten the possibility of catching the Mafia RB here which would basically make this game over. TJ flips red, I bet Scott is the last mafia. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On July 18 2015 22:17 Half the Sky wrote: James is probably messing with us. He is probably the last Mafia. /tinfoil  (Yes Fidei's name is actually James...I play Dota too much with him. <3 Maybe you can join us too Grokken if you don't mind 3k scrubs )Teams being stacked is very possible. Teams are RNGed by most hosts. Skill is irrelevant. 100% This. I've been having the same tinfoil theory. It's pretty simple, of all the people on the Sulf wagon D1 Fidei is easily the most likely to be Mafia bussing. There are 3 solid reasons for it, then some WIFOM evidence from Fidei's reaction here recently. 1) I brought this point up a long time ago, and I always thought it was interesting how much Fidei has fought me on it. Fidei was ignoring Sulf for the majority of D1 and only appears in his filter after n00b points him out, he places his vote only after n00b and HtS are clearly moving to lynch Sulf. Semi-WIFOM scum reasoning here: + Show Spoiler + Scum!Fidei is absolutly smart enough to see that n00b and HtS are strong town players and that Sulf is being pushed hard, plus at the time that he joins the wagon there wasn't too much danger that it would go through (we also have the MD self vote stuff going on). In the event that the Sulf wagon does gain steam then Fidei has gotten massive towncred for being on that wagon which is perfect for him. Sheeping 2 strong town like this is a solid move for scum when you see they have a good case on your teammate. 2) I see pretty much no way that n00b or HtS can be scum. Most of this is from a couple of their posts where they mind melded so well. They each posted longish posts about more or less the same thing within minuets of each other. If we didnt have one confirmed scum outside HtS/n00b/Fidei I would be worried about a world where both are scum, but since only one of those 3 could possibly be scum here I think these posts strongly support HtS ad n00b being town (sorry not looking up the exact posts right now, maybe later). Also it seems unlikely still that n00b or HtS would actively try to Bus Sulf on D1, much more likely scum move is to jump on a newly formed and fairly strong looking wagon that happens to be a bus than to start that wagon yourself. 3) This point is a bit WIFOM and I'm going to pack a couple of thoughts into one point here so bear with me a little. Fidei more or less drops off after D1. Having gotten pretty solid towncred he would not feel like he needs to do much anymore. Still what he does do D2 is largely push Ghandi. Fidei gives a read on TJ where he agree's with HtS but thats all he says. I dont have the time to do much checking right now, but someone should dig through Fidei's filter and see how he's been reading TJ and how that read changes. I'm willing to bet that TJ is hardly mentioned at all. Also, anyone remember this? On July 17 2015 06:18 Fidei86 wrote: The TJH lynch has been explained at length, and it's almost certainly the correct one. I stopped recording points on him when I got to #7. Also, whereas Ghandi was still trying to solve the game all of D2, TJH did nothing constructive at all. I called Fidei out since he claimed to have a bunch of reasons why TJ was scum, but never shared them. He had made 7 points about Ghandi D2 though... When asked about this, here is Fidei's reply. On July 18 2015 02:08 Fidei86 wrote: Also, re my seven points on TJH, I actually did write them down on a piece of paper. Stupidly I didn't bring it when I left the office. However, the one that hasn't been said before I don't think is that in his first post he said he was an incredibly strong player and liked to pick up on and tunnel on small logical inconsistencies. He was right, he did nitpick at Grokken's first post and at my getting a bit shirty with Moosy. But when it came to it, he didn't take either of those reads anywhere and he basically coasted through D1. Oh, and something I just thought of - HTS' case on Sulfurus was incredibly strong. I'm ashamed of myself now for not spotting what she did, because it was incredibly chronic. I really need to go back to D1 and look at who had the chance to read and consider the wagon, but decided to go elsewhere. Because either they are misguided town or scum. 4) This one is a bit Ironic to me. Fidei accused me of this earlier... On July 18 2015 02:02 Fidei86 wrote: Overall I would describe your posting as going at 100kph in a 40kph zone. You're shifting your reads on AFK players based on tiny shreds of evidence, or on nothing at all. You also were "reluctant" to town read me at first for no real reason, then you later moved on to say that the entire Sulfurus wagon was pure, again with no new evidence whatsoever. This was more or less Fidei's thinking on why I could be scum as well. The funny thing here... this is exactly how Fidei has been acting since Grok claimed and made this post... On July 18 2015 14:57 Grokken wrote: Not sure why I'm even asking, seems like the only way we can lose now is if HtS/n00b/Fidei is the last mafia, which is unlikely to say the least. Fidei is suddenly all over SW. I know he had mentioned him before so it's not a read change or anything but he was mildly supporting the idea and now has it kicked into high gear. That tone is fairly prevalent in all of Fidei's posts after Grok suggested one of HtS/n00b/Fidei possibly being mafia. While it is completely possible that TJ was trying to distance himself from SW if they are indeed scum mates this doesn't add up very well. Like in that world TJ would have to be planning to somehow survive the game after claiming cop and getting his partner lynched. That just doesn't add up, no way does TJ survive into LyLo after claiming, just the idea of Mafia not picking him off seems absurd unless somehow Medi survives into 3 man LyLo as well. Super risky scum play there... Conclusion: Fidei is very likely Mafia here. Thankfully Town now has plenty of intel that I think this is an easily won game. We simply PoE out anyone still under suspicion , starting with Fidei > Scott > SW > WP. Main point here, don't let Fidei survive till LyLo/MyLo and similarly pick lynch targets with this in mind. /Game | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
I touched on it, but my case was a little thrown together. Wont have time to do all the proper leg-work till sometime D4. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On July 18 2015 19:36 Fidei86 wrote: I couldn't have solved this game without the following people: HTS - so glad I was town with you. I think if you had rolled scum, it would have been GG. n00b - I won't eff with you I promise Grokken - Bro, you did a nice job as cop, checking exactly the right people and trying to help town without making yourself a target for NK. Props. I'm very impressed. You've got a bright future here. TT - Buddy, what can I say. I'm sorry about the things I said yesterday. You were the first one on the SW wagon, and without you this wouldn't have been possible. TL;DR If I can see this far, it is because I stand on the shoulders of giants. Cute post. Especially the bit about me. I honestly don't see what I made possible at all here. HtS and n00b got Sulf D1, and today would have likely played out exactly the same with or without me. All I've done is provided SW as an alternative Mislynch target is he is in fact town. I'm not egotistical enough to not see that I've largely flailed around a lot of this game. | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
On July 13 2015 22:07 Fidei86 wrote: Also, I think this is probably worth saying - if there is a medic, they should 100% try and save HTS this evening. She is probably the most town-read person (maybe along side me), but given that she just nailed Sulfurus in one post, I definitely think she's towns biggest asset right now. She's definitely smarter than me, anyway  It's not much, and again kinda WIFOM. This was Fidei's only suggested night action N1, if he wanted to make a suggestion why single out a Medic save? Think about that from a town and scum mindset... | ||
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Tictock
United States6052 Posts
GG everyone, sorry to Fidei and SW for pushing you guys as scum this past day. I hadn't actually taken much time to properly read though WP's filter. Think I need to get much better at not letting myself get ahead of my reads. I tend to latch onto an idea and run with it wile ignoring other things. Was probably a little overboard on how all over the place I was. Part of it was purposefully to stir the pot a little but a lot of it was just throwing out thoughts and ideas. Town was pretty brutal this game with so many people being on point. I have to laugh at HtS being our Medic, she did great. Made herself look like the obvious medic save to the point where scum didn't even want to try to kill her for fear of that. First time replacing into a game, kinda weird. Would have sucked had this game been more active as well, but pretty manageable here. | ||
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