[SPL] Samsung KHAN vs. SK Telecom T1 - Page 7

[HYPE] Predictions and Map Analysis

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Head-to-head Record This Season:
+ Show Spoiler [Round 1] +
+ Show Spoiler [Round 2] +


Overview:
Looking at the line ups from their previous matches against each other, I think we can expect a lot of Ps and some Ts playing again. Few things that stand out the most for me are:

• SKT played their 3 Ps for both matches
  
• Only 1 zerg was sent out for either team for both matches
  
• Khan utilized their whole P line in Round 2
  
• Turn played both times and won in tvp
  
• By.sun was sent out both times and lost

SKT: (Assuming it goes to 5th Set) Fantasy, Bisu, BeSt, n.Die_soO, By.Sun/Hyuk.
Obviously Best, Bisu, and Fantasy are a lock. I also think Soo will make an appearance despite the fact that he didn't play against Khan this season, because he seems to be out of his slump now as he has been sent out consistently as of late, while also yielding good results (currently on a 3 game winning streak). For the 5th card, I think I can see SKT sending out By.Sun/Hyuk.

SAM: (Again, assuming it goes to 5th Set) JangBi, Stork, TurN, Shine, Brave/Grape/Reality.
Jangbi and Stork will play for sure, and I think there's a high chance that Shine and Turn will play as well. For the 5th card, I can see Brave/Grape/Reality depending on the situation.

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Player appearances and records on this map in 2012
SKT: Fantasy (2-0), BeSt (2-0), Bisu (2-1), Ssak (0-1), n.Die_soO (0-1)
SAM: Reality (0-1), JangBi (0-1), Grape (0-2), RorO (1-0)

SKT: The obvious choice for me is Best, followed by Fantasy and Bisu. Best, Bisu, and Fantasy are the only players that have played more than 1 game in Electric Circuit and Neo Electric Circuit. They all have a respectable record on this map which explains why they were sent out a lot, but you gotta dig a little deeper to have a better picture of who might be sent out today. Take a look at this:

• In 2012, Best has been sent out for the first set 3 times out of 10 times (30%), and Fantasy 1 out of 10 (10%) each
  
• Bisu has never been sent out first in 2012
  
• Their records on the first set are 1-2 for Best and 0-1 for Fantasy in 2012
  
• Since December 2011, their records on the first set are 1-3 for Best, 2-1 for Fantasy, and 0-1 for Bisu
  
• On Neo Electric Circuit, Best is 2-0, Fantasy 1-0, and Bisu 0-1

SAM: Khan really sucks on this map as they are 2-8 (!!!) on Electric Circuit and 0-1 on Neo. Like Brave on Chain Reaction, January tried to assign Grape to this map which turned out be a failure (Grape went 0-3). Roro won once this year when he went 2 hatch lurker all-in against baby, and the other Khan win on this map is from Jangbi when he beat Best in Round 1. Reality is the only player has been sent on Neo when he lost to Flash. With unlikeliness of SKT sending out a Z, it’s gotta be Jangbi or Reality for Khan in my opinion. Roro comes to mind as well, but I think January also knows that Roro’s all time record against Bisu is 1-7 and against Fantasy is 0-3.

Possible Line Up:
BeSt/Fantasy vs JangBi/Reality
+ Show Spoiler [My Prediction] +

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Player appearances and records on this map in 2012
SKT: n.Die_soO (1-0), Bisu (1-1), Alone (1-1), Hyuk (1-1)
SAM: Shine (2-1), JangBi (1-0), Stork (2-0), RorO (0-1)

Yes please to Bisu vs Stork. They both have been sent out the most on this map from their team and we might be able to see who will come out on top this time (Stork beat Bisu on Outlier during Round 1). If Coach Park wants to utilize another zerg card besides Soo, it might be Hyuk on this map to snipe a P. Also, from Khan’s side, if they are going to send out a zerg to beat Bisu, it’s gotta be the typhoon zerg.

Possible Line Up:
Bisu/Hyuk vs Stork/Shine
+ Show Spoiler [My Prediction] +

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Player appearances and records on this map in 2012
SKT: n.Die_soO (2-0), BeSt (1-1), By.Sun (0-1), Bisu (2-0)
SAM: Brave (5-2), Stork (0-1), Shine (1-0)

SKT: Soo has successfully sniped two Ps on "Neo" Chain Reaction this year and seems like the best candidate for SKT on this map.

SAM: I think we all know January will most likely send out Brave on this map. He is a unique pvz (60% winrate all time, 21 wins) sniper who is also solid in pvp (64% win rate all time, 16 wins), but horrible in pvt (31% wineate all time, 4 wins). So, a map like Chain Reaction, where t never gets sent out, is perfect for him. Note this, Brave has not played a single game of pvt in a proleague since 2010! To many of you who only see January as a troll, you can start appreciating her coaching now. What’s interesting is that for the first time in last 8 games, Brave was NOT sent out early this week against Airforce, but it was Shine who beat Great. Quick fact, Soo’s zvz winrate is 41% while Shine’s is 63%, meaning I wouldn’t be surprised if January sends out Shine on this map for the second straight time to snipe Soo.

Possible Line Up:
n.Die_soO/Bisu vs Brave/Shine
+ Show Spoiler [My Prediction] +

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Player appearances and records on this map in 2012
SKT: BeSt (2-1), Fantasy (2-0).
SAM: Reality (1-1), Stork (2-1), JangBi (2-1)

SKT: For the season, Fantasy is 4-1 and Best is 3-1 on this map. It will be either one of them who wasn't sent out in Set 1.

SAM: The 3 players that have played on this map this year are also the only Khan players that made an appearance on this map throughout the season as well. Stork has the best overall record going 3-1, followed by Jangbi going
3-2 and Reality going 2-1. I can see Reality being sent out to snipe Fantasy here. If it's going to be P, I think it will be Jangbi over Stork as January sent out Jangbi last 3 times on this map. Similarly to SKT, I think whoever didn't play between Jangbi/Reality in Set 1 will play here.

Possible Line Up:
Fantasy/BeSt vs Reality/JangBi
+ Show Spoiler [My Prediction] +

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Player appearances and records on this map in 2012
SKT: Bisu (0-1), Fantasy (1-1), BeSt (0-1), By.Sun (0-1)
SAM: Stork (2-1), RorO (0-1), TurN (1-0) Sharp (0-1), Reality (1-0), Grape (1-0)

Very unlikely that a Z will be sent out for either teams in case a T comes out from the the opposing team (T is 11-3 on this map against Z).
SKT: Bisu if he is still available or By.Sun for pvt.
SAM: Turn seems to be a solid card against SKT this season. If it comes to this set, I can definitely see Turn here (he is 2-0 overall) or Grape, fresh off from a win against Kal on this map earlier this week.

Possible Line Up:
By.Sun/Bisu vs TurN/Grape
+ Show Spoiler [My Prediction] +

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In closing...
Thanks for reading! You can see my previous predictions for CJ vs SAMSUNG match here.