[N] TL Mafia LXXV - Page 22

On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote:
living players:

Palmar
Rels
Disfo
VA
BTDT
Rayn
Blaze
FF
Skynx
RuXxar
ES

Living claimers (do not lynch):
VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3
ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4

Likely town:
Disfo
RuXXar
Fecal
... much lower, Skynx

Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them):
Palmar
BTDT
Rels
Rayn


--

So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat:
Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.

Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.

The people who were on the Annul wagon:
annul (7): sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince
Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote):
Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez

So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.

I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.

So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.

I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.

With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.

2-mafia situation:
Today, 9-2.
If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2
If we ML again, next day is 5-2
If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO

3-mafia situation:
today, 8-3
If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3
If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO

The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.

On June 21 2017 19:38 Blazinghand wrote:


Yeah I actually think this is a valid point. Like, here's how you should look at it.

On the really basic level, the first level, Scum aren't coming from the same mindset of hunting scum that Town come from. Which means it's hard for Scum to have good reads and feel confident pushing them. This means that Town might formulate a read and make a case, but Scum would worry about appearing scummy or something, and therefore try to leave open a line of retreat. See, if you're town, and you think someone is scum, even if it's unpopular to think that, you won't give it up. You have a belief; you have evidence; you're gonna go for it. Scum, though, they're not trying to lynch this guy they think is scum. Instead, theyr'e trying to not get lynched. so maybe theyw ant to build their cases and reads with a line of retreat so they can change their minds if it's unpopular.

So on a naive level you would expect Town to be decisive and Scum to be waffly.

But if you go down into the second level, it turns out taht sometimes as Town you're confused. And to a certain extent, town doesn't actually CARE about looking town. I mean, obvs you don't wanna get lynched but you're also highly concerned with finding scum. Whereas scum, their ONLY concern is about looking town. And if "looking town" means decisively posting aggressive cases, Scum will try to ape this as best they can. Town will only do this when it makes sense for them.

So, we might see someone posting waffle-like uncertain reads. This could mean "ah hah, this is scum planning to pull out of these reads if they aren't popular" and that's possible. But because this really stands out, and is obviously scummy, it's like... the kind of thing that scum tries (but not always succeeds) to avoid doing. And town to a certain extent doesn't actually give a shit. Town wants to lynch properly.

so "I did half-assed work and got a half-assed townread" is, you know, it's not something i'm gonna go giving people tons of townreads on that, but there's not a HUGE motivation for scum to do that because 1) a half-assed townread won't get anyone lynched and 2) it kinda stands out as "bad" in a sense. And I'm not saying "too bad to be scum" but you can see how a town has in some ways more chances of saying this than a scum, capisce

On June 22 2017 09:11 Blazinghand wrote:


Ok, so you DO understand me, you're just disagreeing loudly cause you know I caught you

Look at it this way Rels

There's like, one setup post, with like 7 lines in it. It's right there.

Now what do you think is more likely here, from an outside view?
1. A townie somehow doesn't know what's going on in the OP, and is actively planning around this lack of knowledge (hoping to have a way to stop 2 kp). Despite planning around this lack of knowledge he never looks at the OP, not when he signed up, not when the game started, not when 2 deaths came through N1, and so on. And so, somehow he goes through this existence of hoping/planning around this "knowledge" that he never even spent a second to check on.
2. A Mafia, is keenly aware of how Mafia KP works, but thinks, "ah hah, I could FAKE not knowing how mafia works, thereby PROVING that I am town"

Which is more likely? It's obviously #2. Mafia are willing to lie about everything: emotions, real life issues, being busy, being sick, reading the OP, etc. Townies, will always be curious and want to know how to play the game. And some may be oblivious, but most will not. Most of the time you see something of this caliber executed by someone at this time in the game, it is a mafia move to generate towniness

On June 23 2017 08:20 Blazinghand wrote:
OK SO THEORY. AS we know, SickLucker crumbed his N1 and N2 checks here, which was SAME on FEFE and Chezitwo. However, pay attention to how he wrote it:



I don't know about you folks but I pretty much immediately ignored this. I assumed it was a troll or a joke, not a serious claim in any way. In fact, he doesn't claim they're both the same alignment, he claims they're both Red checks.

Now imagine FeFe and Chez are townies. If FeFe and Chez are both Green, and Mafia sees SL, who to them is just some townie, claim he has redchecks on them, why would they shoot him? Who cares, he's some weirdo doing weird things.

BUT THATS NOT WHAT HAPPENEd

MAFIA SHOT HIM.

Which means, when they saw SL say "i have redchecks on FeFe and Chez" they probably started freaking out because fefe and chez are actually mafia. Their Rb, Xat, is dead; so they can't just wait one more day for town to maybe lynch SL, cause then SL will die and leave us THREE checks (remember, they think he's a cop at this point). So they HAVE to shoot him right away even though he's like the top lynch target.

Mafia has no reason to rolecheck SL, he was considered suspicious and likely to get lynched. But, if FeFe and Chez ARE IN FACT MAFIA, then Mafia had a REALLY good reason to pay attention to this off-handed statement and freak out and shoot SL!

I think that SL crumbed so we'd know he got "same" on FeFe and Chez.

But I ALSO think that the way he was shot could only really happen if FeFe and Chez are Mafia and Mafia freaked the fuck out

this makes as much or more sense than the rolecop theory

now one of FeFe or Chez could still be town here, as an un-self-aware miller; and mafia think "ok, chez/fefe is one of us, but fefe/chez is a miller" and this still confirms, in their minds, that SL is a REGULAR COP with two red checks

they couldn't afford to let him live.

On June 23 2017 08:31 Blazinghand wrote:


OMG READING COMPREHENSION

I AM POINTING OUT THAT

IN A WORLD IN WHICH MAFIA HAD A ROLE CHECK

THEY WOULD PUSH SICKLUCKER

SINCE THEY DIDN'T

THEY DIDN'T HAVE A ROLE CHECK

SO WHY DID THEY SHOOT HIM

ITS NOT CAUSE HE WAS TOWN LEADER

ITS CAUSE THEY GOT HIS ROLE SOME OTHER WAY

LIKE HIS OVERNIGHT CLAIM

THAT ONLY STUCK OUT IF YOU ARE MAFIA

I AM POINTING OUT THAT THE COUNTERFACTUAL OF ROLE CHECK DOESN'T MAKE SENSE

On June 23 2017 09:00 Blazinghand wrote:
Here's like all of Palmar's post in the last week:

On June 26 2017 17:04 Blazinghand wrote:
living players:

Palmar
Rels
Disfo
VA
BTDT
Rayn
Blaze
FF
Skynx
RuXxar
ES

Living claimers (do not lynch):
VA who claims as the Vigilante who shot SL during N3
ES who claims as the Tracker who tracked SL to TW N1, Chezi N2, and Rels to nobody N3, and was RBed N4

Likely town:
Disfo
RuXXar
Fecal
... much lower, Skynx

Potential Scums (in the order I'd lynch them):
Palmar
BTDT
Rels
Rayn


--

So some reasoning here. On the d1 Annul vs Xat wagon, the following 6 people were on Xat:
Xatalos (6): DF, Koshi, Skynx, Disfo, annul, HF.

Everyone who has flipped has been green. Every one of these votes was potentially like "the vote that might make the difference and get Xat lynched D1" and I see no reason to believe that Disfo is scum. Skynx has been very low-activity recently, but I feel like it would have been pretty high risk to be on the Xat wagon here. even if scum had "slack" in the lynch. So I'm basically on board with the idea that the whole wagon was green.

The people who were on the Annul wagon:
annul (7): sicklucker, ruXxar, Fecalfeast, Xatalos, Rels, Grackaroni, Eversince
Non-voters and third-party-voters (any of whom could have potentially swung this vote):
Neither (8): Palmar, Vivax, TW, VA, Damdred, Rayn, Blaze, Chez

So of our lynched scum, one was on annul, and one was third-party. This ALREADY tells us scum had some "slack" in the Annul lynch. TW could have come back and moved his vote from Marv to annul. So scum was already not going "all out" on annul. If they weren't voting Xat, the place for them to be are the "neither" voters. People who didn't vote, or people who voted for an unrelated candidate (as TW did). If we're talking a 4-scum game, I'd guess 2 of them were on annul to push him over, and hte other two either were afk or hid their votes in the assortment of useless wagons.

I think there's a solid chance that someone else on the annul wagon is scum. I think Ruxxar has generally been really engaged all game; he's likely town. ES has claimed, and we don't yet have any reason to doubt it. Fecalfeast is part of the cohort (along with disfo, ruxxar, and chezi) that I spoke with after the dawn of Day 4. Remember, during a period of time, SL had flipped and we were trying to reason things out. Scum, we can now reasonably infer, had shot Chez and noticed it failed, and on top of that, that SL who they did not shoot has flipped. Scum doesn't know what happened, what prots if any went on, who shot whom, etc. This was exciting and interesting news for town, and confusing news for scum, what happened with the D1 flip. After the VA claim, scum had a lot more information to work on and probably came out of the woodwork, and after the ES claim, they were safe to operate and make statements with surety about what checks they were opearing against, and to bus/not bus etc. I think scum had every motivation in the world to NOT be posting right after that flip. It would be very risky. So the people who dove into convo with me, FF, Disfo, and Ruxxar, are highly unlikely to be scum in my view.

So leaving out people on the xat wagon, people who claimed, and people who reacted in a townie way to the start-of-D4 flip (and in a way that would be VERY costly potentially as scum), this leaves Palm, Rels, BTDT, and Rayn. Among them, are at least 2 scum.

I think we can all agree that Palm's play has left something to be desired. Rels, well, you may not agree with me on him, but he still isn't exonnerated by these thoughts. BTDT has gotten suspicion and played weird all game. I've liked rayn, but I always like rayn, and he (like palmar) was a "neither" vote during D1.

With 11 alive, we can consider the 2-mafia and the 3-mafia situation.

2-mafia situation:
Today, 9-2.
If we ML, tomorrow is 7-2
If we ML again, next day is 5-2
If we ML again, day after is 3-2 LYLO

3-mafia situation:
today, 8-3
If we ML, tomorrow is 6-3
If we ML again, the next day is 4-3 LYLO

The latter situation seems more likely given that we seem to have 5 blues. However, if we are hunting for 3 mafia in a pool of 4, we can afford a mislynch. If we take down Palm, BTDT, Rels, Rayn, we win. Heck, this is true in a 9-2 situation also. In both situations we have plenty of ML's worth of cushion. Anyways, if people disagree with me please let me know and it's of course better to discuss things than to autolynch and lose momentum. But I think we baaasically have this wrapped up. And with a 5th blue in the shadows, we have even more degrees of freedom here.