On May 05 2015 22:59 indignant wrote:On May 05 2015 21:16 Xatalos wrote:This D1 vote situation still slightly points to Yamato being town :/ There's already 3 confirmed scum who voted for Yamato during the day. No scum has been shown to vote for sandroba yet, however.
On April 28 2015 06:59 Half the Sky wrote:Day 1 Vote Countsandroba (9):
Holyflare, Xatalos,
Holyflare,
Holyflare, sicklucker,
Holyflare,
Fecalfeast,
Koshi, yamato77, Stutters695, Holyflare, Breshke, rsoultin, The Shining, indignant
yamato77 (6): marvellosity, Vivax,
rsoultin,
Stutters695,
indignant,
ObiWanShinobi,
Holyflare,
Fecalfeast, LightningStrike,
Holyflare,
Koshi, Koshi, sandroba, Inspector Javert
Breshke (2):
Koshi,
ObiWanShinobi,
LightningStrike, Chezinu,
sicklucker, Jean Valjean
Inpsector Javert (2): ObiWanShinobi, Fecalfeast
Holyflare (0):
Koshi,
Koshi,
sandrobarsoultin (1):
Fecalfeast, Sepulchre
Sepulchre (0):
rsoultinLightningStrike (0):
BreshkeVivax (0):
Inspector Javertmarvellosity (0):
Koshi,
sicklucker,
Inspector Javert,
KoshiKoshi (0):
Holyflaresicklucker (0):
marvellosity,
Holyflare,
Fecalfeast,
VivaxXatalos (0):
KoshiNot voted (2): rygart, Damdred,
Given the current vote count, sandroba is most likely to be knocked out.The voting thread is located here.
Countdown: I hate that we are doing the work right now because today is the day all those lazy fuckers should step it up. No excuse not to anymore.
So, about that votecount: It is not correct. I was the last one to vote sandro. Jean and damdred both voted before me. FF also voted yamato at some point btw.
Regardless, what does it tell us? Well, it is only relevant if yamato is town. Which is cool because if yamato doesn't play today we just lynch him and know.
So, let's assume yamato is town. I will also assume without doublechecking that scum knew that at this point in time or earlier the votes weren't actually 9:6 but like 7: 7 or 7:8 depending on the hidden vote/sandros other abilities. So there was hope for sandro since they couldn't know if the townies left would vote yamato or sandro.
So the votes of bats, Obi and Chez still look really really bad. BUT we also know now that Sep was town. So if scum wanted to save sandro they were probably waiting and looking if that really makes sense. -> off wagon people OR people who were on sandro early. Voting sandro late was a bad idea since a switch just can't be justified that well. Not to mention that at this point all late voters are basically confirmed town except for maybe damdred.
sandroba (9):
Holyflare, Xatalos,
Holyflare,
Holyflare, sicklucker,
Holyflare,
Fecalfeast,
Koshi, yamato77, Stutters695, Holyflare, Breshke, rsoultin, The Shining, indignant
yamato77 (6): marvellosity, Vivax,
rsoultin,
Stutters695,
indignant,
ObiWanShinobi,
Holyflare,
Fecalfeast, LightningStrike,
Holyflare,
Koshi, Koshi, sandroba, Inspector Javert
Breshke (2):
Koshi,
ObiWanShinobi,
LightningStrike, Chezinu,
sicklucker, Jean Valjean
Inpsector Javert (2): ObiWanShinobi, Fecalfeast
Holyflare (0):
Koshi,
Koshi,
sandrobarsoultin (1):
Fecalfeast, Sepulchre
Sepulchre (0):
rsoultinLightningStrike (0):
BreshkeVivax (0):
Inspector Javertmarvellosity (0):
Koshi,
sicklucker,
Inspector Javert,
KoshiKoshi (0):
Holyflaresicklucker (0):
marvellosity,
Holyflare,
Fecalfeast,
VivaxXatalos (0):
KoshiNot voted (2): rygart, Damdred
That's not very enlightening because it only leads to the same suspects we had either way.
Chez voted off wagon, no real effort to figure out the game.
Obi voted off wagon, actively tried to push the lynch away from sandroba multiple times. 2 really fucking suspicious reads on people that are now confirmed scum (sandro, Vivax). Relatively low effort.
Bats voted the wrong wagon. Personally I think the timing is not as suspicious as it looks though. Play generally more or less in line with town meta. There is the argument about how his vote for yamato makes no sense considering that Vivax and marv were on the same wagon though.
LS voted the wrong wagon. Could just be sheeping though. Don't know what to make of him.
So, who could be scum on the sandro wagon?
Xatalos: Really doubt it. You can start worrying if he survives like 3 more nights but otherwise this guy is town or at least not scum.
SL: Was awfully certain about sandroba.
Could be a bus - he does that day1 all the time. His strong push for sandro is generally more or less the thing that makes him townread. Did not put in any effort during the last days. Some other minor reasons to townread him though. Like making FF heal me.
Stutters: Could be scum. Since sep was town his yolo play is really really scumfavored. Low effort too.
Breshke: Probably greenchecked+cancelled the fight. Very low effort though and we still had no mafia role that fucks with copchecks flip even though there are tons of cops.
Damdred: Confirmed rb at this point - sadly not confirmed town. Rbs night 1 are still very weird. Hammered sandro though. And marv said he had a strong townread on him/defended him multiple times which is the only reason I have been so lenient on him. I did not understand that read at the time at all. Either marv has some sort of godread on him or he same checked him with SL/Breshke.
So, I think my conclusion is that at least for today I don't want to touch Xatalos, Damdred and Sicklucker. Maybe we let chez live for another day to see what's up with HF.
The rest should step it up if they do not want to be part of the fight today.
EPT
