|
With the knowledge that we now know that a mafia shot is missing, it's incredibly likely that there's a mafia inside of the high profile players who all normally take shots early.
Let's take a look at the player list of people left and why they would be shot night 1:
Obi - Flattering, but nobody is going to shoot me night one.
Damdred - Not a night one shot.
Grack - Confirmed vigi, isn't dead. Obviously wasn't shot.
Holyflare - Possibly shot, condemned by mafia on their death bed.
Palmar - Another possible shot.
KSC - Not a night one shot.
Slam - Slam never dies. Ever. Not a night one shot.
Storr - Maybe. I'd probably need someone to talk it over with me.
So in the end, we're left with the most likely night 1 kills: Holyflare, Palmar, and Storr.
After yesterday, there's no chance Holyflare is scum. He already knows the benefit of CFDing onto another target with such controversy surrounding players the way that lynch went down. And there's no reason to believe that he wouldn't have been able to pull that off.
So we're left with Storr and Palmar.
|
On October 12 2014 13:30 Grackaroni wrote:
Blazinghand/HF were the only realistic shots for mafia to make
I think you might be letting confirmation bias affect you. I just don't see the scum motivation in HF's posting at all.
|
On October 12 2014 13:04 Grackaroni wrote:
Waiting for Storrzergs reaction
DAMN
|
On October 12 2014 13:37 ObiWanShinobi wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2014 13:30 Grackaroni wrote:
Blazinghand/HF were the only realistic shots for mafia to make I think you might be letting confirmation bias affect you. I just don't see the scum motivation in HF's posting at all.
I'm saying those are the people who could have realistically been shot by mafia night one.
Palmar was a non-presence and Storr did nothing but tunnel Lian and Lian wasn't mafia
|
On October 12 2014 13:41 Grackaroni wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2014 13:37 ObiWanShinobi wrote:On October 12 2014 13:30 Grackaroni wrote:
Blazinghand/HF were the only realistic shots for mafia to make I think you might be letting confirmation bias affect you. I just don't see the scum motivation in HF's posting at all. I'm saying those are the people who could have realistically been shot by mafia night one. Palmar was a non-presence and Storr did nothing but tunnel Lian and Lian wasn't mafia
You are grossly underestimating the number of times I've seen Palmar get shot night one, even when he wasn't doing anything.
Especially when he wasn't doing anything.
|
liam shot was good will help town focus. lets be honest he was probably going to be the lynch today if he wasn't shot
|
On October 12 2014 13:46 StorrZerg wrote:
liam shot was good will help town focus. lets be honest he was probably going to be the lynch today if he wasn't shot
Not really. I explained why this wouldn't be the case. =/
Regardless, if Storr was wrong this whole time and got fixated on Lian, especially knowing that he isn't mafia, mafia probably wouldn't shoot him for being that wrong.
So, really, the only kills left are Holyflare and Palmar. And I don't think Holyflare is scum.
Palmar is the most likely poisoner lynch.
|
regardless its not necessarily the poisoner that was shot there could still be a medic. Lian shot was my fault I should have went with my read instead of sheeping HF. We want to lynch mafia today not poisoner and I think KSC is the last mafia.
|
Its likely mafia know who the psner is.
unless town does have medic/cop
|
There has to be a poisoner. There were three kills.
One kill from mafia, one kill from you. Where did the third come from?
|
Yeah there has to be a poisoner but that doesn't mean he was the only one who could have been shot day1. Like its still entirely possible that mafia shot BH and slam is a medic.
|
So the setup we're talking about is:
Medic/Vig/RB
This is the most likely setup if there isn't a cop. The issue is that would this be the setup we would be dealing with while dealing with 4 scum. Would we be given the weakest roles possible, with the exception of Vigilante?
|
none of this really matters its all just speculation
|
Theoretically. I know the WIFOM and stuff involved but I still think that we should lynch Palmar if we find the last mafia.
I can get behind a KSC lynch regardless of the poisoner.
|
On October 12 2014 13:47 ObiWanShinobi wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2014 13:46 StorrZerg wrote:
liam shot was good will help town focus. lets be honest he was probably going to be the lynch today if he wasn't shot Not really. I explained why this wouldn't be the case. =/ Regardless, if Storr was wrong this whole time and got fixated on Lian, especially knowing that he isn't mafia, mafia probably wouldn't shoot him for being that wrong. So, really, the only kills left are Holyflare and Palmar. And I don't think Holyflare is scum. Palmar is the most likely poisoner lynch.
##truth
I checked the NK post and almost did so immediately
|
Btw inb4 I am scummy for agreeing with my prior scumread
|
Slam who be mafia? Aren't you going to mourn the loss of Blazinghand? We need some chupazi up in here
|
|
|
|
|
I said I would vote palmar?
But yes. It is inevitable BH would get shot but
"We played the lyre, but you did not dance
We sang a dirge, but you did not mourn"
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
